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Meta defies gravity, open web is moribund versus Q1 2026 benchmarks

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WARC
  • Google Search surges past expectations with ad growth 5.4 percentage points above forecast
  • Meta overperformed with ad revenue of $55.0bn against a projected $54.1bn – 2.3pp ahead of WARC’s forecast
  • Amazon’s advertising services revenue of $17.2bn was in line with first quarter expectations
  • YouTube’s $72m ad revenue shortfall reveals engagement-to-revenue conversion gap

WARC releases latest Earnings Debrief comparing Big Tech’s ad revenue performance against WARC Media’s quarterly global ad spend forecast data

01 May 2026 – The first quarter of 2026 delivered a useful reminder that not all online advertising growth is created equal. Meta outpaced WARC Media’s forecast, while Amazon held steady, and YouTube continued to struggle even as Alphabet’s wider advertising machine powered ahead.

This is according to analysis by WARC Media in its latest Earning Debrief, an advertising revenue performance analysis of Big Tech compared against WARC Media’s quarterly global ad spend forecast data, to provide a current round-up of their ad spend.

Benchmarking against WARC Media’s ad spend projections – derived from a proprietary neural network of over two million data points – Meta’s reported growth beat expectations by 2.3 percentage points (pp) during the opening quarter of 2026. Google Search outperformed by 5.4pp, and Amazon’s ad business came in broadly level (-0.4pp). YouTube, however, once again fell short of projections (-1.9pp), while Google’s Display Network recorded a sharper-than-expected decline (-1.6pp).

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC, said “With this earnings cycle closely tracking our forecasts, WARC’s outlook for the year remains broadly unchanged for the major online platforms. The next phase of growth is likely to favour those that can turn AI from a fashionable noun into a measurable commercial advantage. As ever in advertising, rhetoric is plentiful; revenue is indelible.”

Meta defies gravity

Meta was an overperformer this quarter, with ad revenue of $55.0bn against a forecast of $54.1bn – 2.3pp ahead of WARC’s benchmark. Better targeting, more automated buying and faster optimisation appear to be helping Meta convert its AI infrastructure into measurable performance, rather than merely an expensive slide in an investor deck.

Management commentary reinforces this interpretation. CFO Susan Li reported that ranking improvements on Instagram drove a 10% lift in time spent with Reels in Q1, while Mark Zuckerberg pointed to strong trends across Meta’s apps and all-time high engagement around video content.

The results suggest Meta is increasingly effective at capturing user attention, selling it, monetising it, and commanding premium rates in the process.

Amazon’s full-funnel evolution

Amazon’s advertising services revenue of $17.2bn was effectively in line with first quarter expectations. The world’s largest advertiser is working to be “the best place for brands of all sizes to grow their businesses” and emphasised its full-funnel credentials during its earnings call.

Beyond the messaging, Amazon’s advertising business continues to benefit from the attibutes marketers most value: purchase intent, closed-loop measurement and inventory that sits tantilisingly close to the transaction.

The direction of travel, therefore, remains favourable for Amazon. Retail media continues to gain market share by offering advertisers the alluring prospect of linking spend to sales with minimal attribution complexity, while streaming inventory and AI-assisted creative tools broaden Amazon’s reach beyond the lower funnel. This bodes well for future earnings cycles.

Alphabet’s mixed quarter

Google was the standout performer during the quarter, with ad revenue up 19.1% to $60.4bn, a marked 5.4pp above the benchmark of +13.7%. Clearly traditional paid search remains resilient, and Alphabet is arguing with some confidence that AI is improving engagement rather than cannibalising it.

Indeed, CEO Sundar Pichai heralded that AI is “illuminating every aspect of the business” and that products such as AI Overviews and AI Mode are now bringing users back to search more often. While progress is evident, the quarter revealed uneven performance across Alphabet’s advertising portfolio, with AI-driven gains not distributed equally among all business units.

YouTube’s reported ad revenue of approximately $9.98bn came in around $72m below the forecast value of $10.05bn, suggesting that strong engagement is still not converting into revenue quite as elegantly as executives would prefer. Short-form video continues to attract attention at scale, but monetisation still appears to lag the consumption curve: this is now the second consecutive quarter in which YouTube has fallen short of WARC’s forecast expectations, though the gap was far wider last quarter.

Google’s Display Network continues to decline in step with a moribund open web. Here, ad revenue dipped 3.9% compared to a forecast fall of 2.3% – this suggests Alphabet’s AI ambitions may be creating trade-offs in certain areas potentially at the expense of others.

Final word

Given the combined scale of these three players – accounting for 58% of all ad investment globally excluding China – they provide a useful yardstick for the industry at large.

The pace of growth at Amazon by far exceeds the WARC Media forecast for Q1 2026 ad spend on retail media globally (+12.3%); ditto Meta in relation to WARC’s benchmark for social media in the quarter (+20.3%). And that without looking at forecasts for slower-growth channels like total TV (+1.2%), or the market as a whole (+11.1%).

Taken together, the quarter suggests that advertisers are continuing to reward platforms that combine scale, first-party data and increasingly competent automation.

Meta is showing what happens when AI improves both engagement and monetisation simultaneously, Amazon is extending retail media into something closer to a full-spectrum ad business, and Alphabet is proving that search remains formidable even as video and display raise less cheerful questions.

 

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Spiro and Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners (ESP) kick off pilot programme in Rwanda, aiming to support 5,000 women entrepreneurs across Africa

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Spiro

Spiro and ESP aim to support 5,000 women across Africa by 2030, encouraging greater participation of women in the continent’s growing electric mobility sector

KIGALI, Rwanda, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ —

  • 50 women have already begun their training in Rwanda, following the programme’s launch as part of an initial pilot targeting 500 participants.
  • The programme combines practical and entrepreneurial training, access to affordable electric motorcycles, financing and commercial opportunities to help women build their own businesses.
  • Spiro and ESP aim to support 5,000 women across Africa by 2030, encouraging greater participation of women in the continent’s growing electric mobility sector.
  • The initiative aims to increase women’s participation in electric mobility, particularly in Rwanda, where they represent just 4% of transport workers.

 

Spiro (www.Spironet.com), Africa’s leading electric mobility company, and Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners (ESP), a pan-African firm specialising in entrepreneurship development, have launched the Women in E-Mobility programme in Rwanda, an initiative designed to help women become professional electric motorcycle riders, develop their own businesses and generate sustainable income.

 




 
 

The programme is already underway, with the first 50 women having started training October 2026. They form the first cohort of a pilot targeting 500 women in Rwanda, before a planned expansion to other African markets to reach 5,000 participants by 2030.

This initiative reflects Spiro’s ambition to ensure that the growth of electric mobility in Africa creates new opportunities for women. While motorcycles are a major source of employment in transport, delivery and logistics, women remain largely underrepresented in the sector. In Rwanda, women account for just 4% of transport workers, despite a 2025 study in Kigali finding that 47.7% of women surveyed would consider becoming motorcycle taxi drivers.

Electric mobility is creating new economic opportunities across Africa, and we want more women to be part of this transformation

The Women in E-Mobility programme aims to address these challenges by providing participants with practical motorcycle riding and road safety training, financial literacy, digital skills and entrepreneurship support. Women will also gain access to affordable financing, including lease-to-own arrangements, enabling them to acquire Spiro electric motorcycles and use its battery-swapping network.

Beyond access to vehicles, the programme will connect participants with ride-hailing, delivery and logistics platforms, helping them secure customers and build sustainable businesses. Through this approach, Spiro and ESP aim to encourage more women to pursue careers in electric mobility and contribute to the sector’s growth.

“Electric mobility is creating new economic opportunities across Africa, and we want more women to be part of this transformation. Through this programme, we are giving women the tools to become professional drivers, build their own businesses and generate income. Our ambition is to encourage a new generation of women entrepreneurs who will help shape the future of mobility on the continent,” said Anant Badjatya, Group CEO of Spiro.

The programme combines Spiro’s electric mobility infrastructure with the entrepreneurship expertise of Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners (ESP), a pan-African firm helping entrepreneurs access financing, develop their skills and grow their businesses.

“For women entrepreneurs, having access to a motorcycle is only the first step. Building a successful business also requires skills, financing, customers and ongoing support. By combining ESP’s entrepreneurship expertise with Spiro’s electric mobility ecosystem, we want to create practical and sustainable economic opportunities for women,” said Eric Kacou, Co-founder and CEO of Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners.

Rwanda was selected as the starting point for the programme, building on its growing electric mobility ecosystem and Spiro’s established local presence, including its assembly operations and battery-swapping network.

The initial pilot will help assess participants’ progress, income generation and business performance before the programme is progressively extended to other African countries where Spiro operates between 2027 and 2030. To support this expansion, Spiro and ESP are seeking to engage development finance institutions, impact investors, governments and commercial partners to facilitate access to financing, strengthen training and expand commercial opportunities.

Through Women in E-Mobility, both partners aim to demonstrate how the transition to cleaner transport can also encourage women’s entrepreneurship, create jobs and support economic development across Africa.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Spiro.

 

 




 

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Venezuela’s Revised Hydrocarbons Law Ties Investor Terms to Asset Type

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Etu Energias

New contract models and tiered fiscal rates give companies several routes into Venezuela, each matched to a different class of upstream asset

CARACAS, Venezuela, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ –Venezuela’s amended Organic Hydrocarbons Law has opened several distinct routes into the country’s oil and gas sector, each suited to a different type of asset and a different appetite for operational control. Heavy-oil acreage in the Orinoco Belt, mature onshore fields, offshore gas and refining are all available to international capital, and Venezuela Energy Week (VEW) 2027 will bring the companies weighing those options to Caracas to negotiate directly with PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons.

 




 
 

The government made its pitch in Cape Town, South Africa last week, where Vice Minister of Commercial Policy Ricardo Gomez presented 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 193 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at the Venezuela Global Investment Forum during African Energy Week (AEW) 2026. “The opportunities extend from upstream projects to downstream and refining,” he said, as PDVSA works toward its target of 105 definitive oil contracts by year-end.

Participation Contracts

The most direct route is the hydrocarbon productive participation contract (CPPH). Under it, a Venezuela-domiciled company operates a designated area at its own cost and risk for 25 years. With ministry approval, it can also market its share of production. Eni moved its Junín-5 heavy-oil field onto the model in September. The Italian company left its minority joint venture position to become exclusive operator of an asset holding 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place.

Joint Ventures

Companies preferring a partnership can enter a restructured joint venture with PDVSA. The state company keeps majority ownership, but can now hand operational management and marketing rights to its international partners. Mature fields are open through either structure, and their existing wells and infrastructure offer a quicker path to revenue. GeoPark took the contract route at the Bare field – a heavy-oil asset in the Orinoco Belt – under a 25-year agreement. It plans to reactivate up to 1,100 wells and lift output to around 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2038.

Infrastructure Contracts

Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive

Direct ministerial contracts and strategic alliances cover oilfield services and infrastructure. Projects on offer include pipeline rehabilitation, export terminals and refinery upgrades. Domestic refineries currently process 350,000 bpd, and PDVSA aims to raise throughput to as much as 600,000 bpd in 2027.

Offshore Gas Follows Its Own Licensing Track

Offshore gas is awarded through a separate licensing process. bp, a Gold Sponsor of VEW 2027, operates the second phase of the cross-border Loran field. It holds the license in equal shares with Abu Dhabi’s XRG and Qatar’s UCC Oil and Gas Holding.

Tiered Fiscal Terms Support Investment Across the Value Chain

Each route to investment sits within a revised fiscal regime. Regulations published in July cap royalties at 30% and the integrated hydrocarbons tax at 15%, with combined rates of 20% for greenfield projects, 25% for extra-heavy oil, 30% for non-producing brownfields and 35% for producing brownfields. Qualifying offshore projects and developments incorporating upgrading or refining infrastructure may receive reductions of up to five percentage points.

“Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive,” Scott Gilbert, Non-Executive Chairman of Apertura Energy, told the AEW forum.

Companies entering through a CPPH will need a locally incorporated entity, and securing marketing authorization early gives operators greater control over revenue. U.S. companies also structure contracts around the conditions attached to Treasury general licenses, which govern how payments and contract law are handled in deals with PDVSA.

VEW 2027 will put those terms on the table in Caracas, with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and PDVSA, both patrons of the event, meeting investors across two conference days and a day of site visits. By February, PDVSA’s year-end contracting drive is expected to have produced additional agreements, giving investors a clearer picture of how the revised contractual and fiscal frameworks are being applied in practice.

VEW 2027 takes place February 22–25 at the Simon Bolivar Convention Center in Caracas. Organized by Energy Capital & Power and taking place under the patronage of Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, VEW is the country’s flagship oil and gas investment platform. To register or learn more about sponsorship and speaking opportunities, visit www.VenezuelaEnergyWeek.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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Afreximbank approves US$975 million facility for the Management Buy-Out of Oryx Energies

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afreximbank

The transaction marks a major step in strengthening Africa’s energy security and demonstrates the growing capacity of African financial institutions to support Africa’s industrial future with African capital

CAIRO, Egypt, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has disbursed a landmark US$ 975 million financing facility to part-finance the Management Buy-Out of Oryx Energies SA (OESA), the holding company of Addax Energy SA, bringing one of the largest and longest-established independent providers of energy products and services in Africa under majority African ownership for the first time.

 




 
 

The transaction marks a major step in strengthening Africa’s energy security and demonstrates the growing capacity of African financial institutions to support Africa’s industrial future with African capital. The acquisition offers the continent an opportunity to retain economic value, pivot toward energy sovereignty, and align resources with Africa’s development agenda.

This financing also builds on Afreximbank’s broader support for Africa’s energy sector, including investments in upstream production and refining capacity. It reflects the Bank’s commitment to providing appropriately structured financing that enables African businesses to strengthen their operations, develop energy infrastructure and expand trade across the continent. Afreximbank acted as sole lender, facility agent, security trustee and escrow agent for the transaction.

This transaction advances Afreximbank’s mandate to drive the structural transformation of African economies

Speaking on the Management Buy-Out, Mr. Moussa Diao, CEO of Oryx Energies SA, said:

“This management buy-out marks an important milestone in the history of Oryx Energies and the continuation of a journey that our management team has been part of for many years. It also reflects the strength of experienced African leadership and its ability to guide established businesses towards new opportunities. It provides an opportunity to build on the strong foundations of the business, drawing on our longstanding experience and deep understanding of African energy markets. Our ambition remains to strengthen our activities in energy trading and infrastructure development across Africa.”

Mr. Diao noted that the transaction would not have been possible without the confidence and support of Afreximbank, whose involvement reflects confidence not only in the management team and the business, but also in the opportunities that Africa continues to offer. It further demonstrates the increasingly important role of African financial institutions in supporting established African businesses and enabling their continued development.

Commenting on the transaction, Dr. George Elombi, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, said:

“This transaction advances Afreximbank’s mandate to drive the structural transformation of African economies. Through the Management Buy-Out of Oryx Energies SA’s trading and distribution business, we have secured a strategic platform to deepen Africa’s energy industrial ecosystem, strengthen energy infrastructure and capture more value from the continent’s abundant natural resources. It will also promote greater African ownership and participation in development by empowering local entrepreneurs, expanding local value creation, building capacity, creating jobs and retaining more economic value on the continent.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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