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New outlook shows Gulf Crisis still threatens $94bn of incremental ad investment worldwide over next 18 months

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5 months ago

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Gulf Crisis
  • Global ad growth uprated to +11.5% this year – to $1.39trn – but ongoing volatility could remove as much as 3.2 percentage points (pp) – or $39.6bn – from growth in 2026
  • Automotive, food, and travel & transport sectors among most susceptible to high oil prices and a prolonged disruption to shipping in Strait of Hormuz
  • There is an uneven impact on brand- and performance-led media spend, with TV suffering sharp falls as social and search remain largely unaffected
  • Ad market growth is expected to ease to 8.2% next year – to a total of $1.50trn – but a prolonged Gulf crisis could remove a further $54.1bn from growth prospects in 2027

WARC Media Global Ad Spend Forecast Q2 2026 update: Implications of the Gulf energy crisis

11 June 2026 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that a prolonged conflict in the Gulf region could threaten $39.6bn of global advertising growth this year, and $93.7bn over the next 18 months.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, says: “As the Gulf Crisis stretches into its fourth month, global markets are now in damage limitation mode as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acts like a tax on consumers, lifting prices and squeezing real spending power.

“If the conflict drags on – or further intensifies – these risks shift toward stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive, and food acutely exposed to higher production costs and weaker demand. The net effect is a grueling squeeze on margins that could put as much as $94bn of anticipated ad market growth at risk over the coming 18 months.”

WARC Media’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment trends based on over two million data points. The projections account for three scenarios of increasing severity to model the potential impacts of the ongoing Gulf Crisis.

 

The fallout from the conflict is being felt differently across regions

WARC’s baseline scenario is for 11.5% ad market growth in 2026, but if the Crisis were to become more severe, the growth rate could fall to +8.3%
Southeast Asia (+6.9%) and Latin America (+12.8%) are on course for healthy growth this year, but are most exposed to an increase in severity
The Gulf ad market could fall into recession (-0.2%) this year, as would the French ad market (-1.0%), in the most severe scenario
The US (+9.5%) is well insulated and benefits from the World Cup and Midterms; even in a severe scenario the ad market would lose just $10bn in growthThe baseline projection is for global ad market growth of 11.5% to $1.39trn this year, an upgrade from the 10.6% rise predicted in March owing to a strong first half for online platforms. The supply-side pressures caused by the Gulf Crisis, however, are expected to be felt by consumers and brands alike from the second half of the year.

Data shows that Southeast Asia will be among the hardest hit by the conflict, due to vulnerabilities in energy imports and trade flows. WARC’s baseline projects +6.9% ad spend growth for the region to $24.8bn in 2026; a moderate scenario, however, pulls that to +6.3%, and a severe scenario delivers +3.6% – a 3.3pp swing from best to worst outcome.

​China’s exposure is also distinct: imported energy and shipping costs compress industrial margins and export competitiveness. A baseline ad spend growth forecast of +7.9% (to $223.1bn) for 2026 falls to +5.3% in the severe scenario (-2.6pp), equivalent to $5.3bn in lost growth for the Chinese ad market should the situation deteriorate.

While the US isn’t immune to pressures from the situation in the Gulf, its relative insulation shows ​a clear contrast to the pressures war in the Middle East is placing on other markets. Even under the severe scenario, ​US ad spend growth is +7.2% in 2026, down 2.3pp from a baseline of +9.5% (to $452.6bn) and equivalent to a shortfall of $9.8bn.​

Conversely, the Latin American ad market is on the precipice. Led by Brazil and Mexico, Latin America posts the strongest baseline ad spend growth of any region in the forecast: +12.8% to $27.8bn in 2026. The severe scenario clips that to just +3.4%; a 9.4pp downgrade and the largest single swing in the data.

The markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain – are already seeing weakened demand, particularly from global advertisers. Under the severe scenario, GCC ad spend tips into outright contraction at -0.2% in 2026, a swing of -11.9pp against the baseline expectation of +11.7% to $5.7bn.

Ad spend across the Eurozone, where major economies are already stagnating, is set to rise 5.6% to $109.0bn this year. This could, however, ease to just 1.8% growth if the severe scenario is realized. The UK (+6.3%), Germany (+6.7%) and France (+2.7%) are all expected to see ad market growth this year, but the severe scenario removes 3.1 percentage points on average, pushing France into recession should the worst case materialise.

Travel, automotive and food sectors among most susceptible to a prolonged disruption

Travel & Transport ad spend already forecast to decline (-3.5%) this year
Automotive ad spend is largely flat in Western Europe, though is still expected to be up globally (+6.7%) in 2026
Growth in the food sector remains steady this year (+10.3%), but the impacts of present supply chain disruption are expected to be felt more in 2027

Travel is the worst-hit major category and the only one already thought to be contracting at the global level, with ad spend forecast to be down -3.5% to $34.4bn in 2026. Airlines active in the Middle East are already reviewing budget allocations. The sector is expected to record a projected recovery of +13.0% in 2027, however.

The double squeeze of rising inputs on the manufacturer side and consumer credit sensitivity suppressing demand is clearly visible in the automotive sector. Germany – one of the world’s largest car manufacturers – is forecast to see automotive ad spend grow by just +1.9% in the 2026. If the Gulf Crisis were to become more severe, this would fall to a 4.2% contraction this year, a 6.0pp swing from a baseline that was already fragile.

While the food market looks steady – ad spend is projected to grow 10.3% to $99.8bn this year – the sector can be heavily impacted by a complex supply chain: fertiliser, grain, fuel, and packaging costs are rising before consumers feel it.

The full impacts on the food sector are expected to land in H2 2026 and into 2027, when the severe forecast scenario trails the baseline by 1.2pp, wider than the 2026 gap. Europe’s major markets are impacted significantly: UK food ad spend grows +4.9% in the baseline and contracts -0.2% in the severe scenario: a 5.0pp swing that tips the category negative.


There is an uneven impact on brand- and performance-led media spend

Linear TV’s decline likely to accelerate as the situation worsens, with advertisers favouring short-term, performance channels over brand-building
Social media growth remains strong, but cost pressures on small and medium-sized companies leave social platforms somewhat exposed
Paid search – including generative AI – remains stable in all scenarios

In the baseline scenario, the linear TV ad market is forecast to fall ​2.7% in 2026, and by the same margin again in 2027. TV’s total share of global ad investment – 12.7% in the baseline across linear and video on-demand combined – slips to 12.5% in the severe scenario. While the 2026 FIFA World Cup provides a cyclical boost in the baseline that partially offsets the decline. However, a severe scenario erodes that buffer.​

The headline numbers are robust for social media: 20.0% growth in the baseline forecast this year, falling back to 17.9% in the severe scenario ​(a 2.1pp gap). The severe scenario therefore costs social platforms $7.8bn, just 11% of incremental ad revenue this year. However, underneath these numbers may lie some vulnerability. Social’s advertiser base is heavily concentrated in SMEs. If smaller businesses are suffering because household spend is declining, then marketing budgets may be at risk. Paid search – including generative AI – provides the most stable picture. In the severe scenario, it still grows +11.0% in 2026 – only 3.3pp below a baseline of +14.3%.

Even under the most disruptive conditions modelled, search, social and retail media will retain two-thirds of global ad spend.​ The channels absorbing the losses are those already under pressure. Linear TV falls 7.3% this year in the severe scenario (compared to a 3.7% fall in the baseline forecast); publishing contracts ​8.5% (compared to a 0.8% baseline dip), and cinema drops 4.0% in the most severe case, versus a baseline forecast of 6.3% growth this year.

Cinema, alongside publishing, is the least resilient channel in the dataset. Cinema advertising is tied directly to leisure discretionary spending and theatrical attendance, both of which weaken sharply when consumer confidence falls and energy-linked transport costs rise.


WARC Media subscribers can read the full report available from Monday 15 June. A WARC podcast on the findings outlined in the report will be available from 18 June.

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Africa and Caribbean trade potential could reach $1.65 billion annually by 2030: International Trade Centre (ITC)-Afreximbank report

Published

14 hours ago

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November 4, 2026

By

Afreximbank

The report finds that around 80% of Africa’s annual goods export potential to the Caribbean remains untapped

ST. JOHN’S, Antigua and Barbuda, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –Annual trade in goods and services between Africa and the Caribbean could reach up to $1.65 billion by 2030, excluding mineral fuels, according to a new report launched today by the International Trade Centre (ITC) and African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.

 




  

The report, Reshaping Africa-Caribbean Trade: Opportunities for Economic Transformation, (https://apo-opa.co/4eiz62u) finds that while Africa and the Caribbean share deep historical and cultural links, trade between the two regions continues to represent only a small share of each region’s overall trade, despite complementarities across sectors ranging from agribusiness and manufacturing to services and the creative economy.

A look at the numbers

The report finds that around 80% of Africa’s annual goods export potential to the Caribbean remains untapped, with are significant opportunities for export growth if trade and investment is actively promoted and facilitated.

Africa and the Caribbean must transform a shared history into shared prosperity

Caribbean export potential lies in the services sector, reaching $481 million. The report identifies business opportunities across several priority sectors, including processed food and animal feed, chemicals, minerals and metals, apparel and textiles, leather and footwear, tourism, transport services and creative industries.

These findings – and more – are based on trade and export potential analysis, detailed sector assessments and a survey of 1,175 businesses and business support organizations across Africa and the Caribbean.

Tapping into priority sectors

ITC Executive Director Pamela Coke-Hamilton (https://apo-opa.co/3WHHZMU), in launching the report, said: ‘At a time of major shifts in global trade, countries need to strengthen regional ties and invest in value addition, to build resilience. We know the major trade opportunities between Africa and the Caribbean – and now we can focus on helping businesses take advantage of those opportunities through better market intelligence, improved logistics and greater access to finance.’

Commenting on the report, Denys Denya, Senior Executive Vice President at Afreximbank, said: ‘Africa and the Caribbean must transform a shared history into shared prosperity. With our CARICOM office in Barbados, about $1 billion in approved transactions and a $5 billion regional financing commitment, Afreximbank is advancing this vision through financing, deposit mobilization under CENDEP, business links through the annual Afri-Caribbean Trade and Investment Forum, local-currency payments through CAPSS and creative-industry collaboration through CANEX. This report offers a practical roadmap to turn untapped potential into bankable opportunities across agribusiness, manufacturing, tourism and the creative economy. Through targeted financing, stronger transport and logistics links and strategic partnerships, we can build a Global Africa connected by heritage, trade, investment and shared opportunity.’

The report finds that businesses continue to face significant challenges, including high transport costs, limited direct shipping links, regulatory barriers, limited access to finance and difficulties in identifying trusted commercial partners. It highlights that future economic cooperation should extend beyond traditional trade in goods, including through joint investment ventures, digital services, creative industries and tourism. It also calls for targeted action to improve market intelligence and business matchmaking; expand access to trade finance and payment solutions; strengthen transport and logistics connectivity; support sector-specific value chain development; improve regulatory cooperation and market access; and foster stronger partnerships among business support organizations.

Read the full report HERE (https://apo-opa.co/4exHBH9)

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 Investment Track to Spotlight New Capital Opportunities

Published

14 hours ago

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November 4, 2026

By

Etu Energias

A high-level ministerial roundtable, a project development clinic and matchmaking sessions are set to drive partnerships across the MSGBC region

DAKAR, Senegal, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –The MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 conference and exhibition, taking place from December 1–3 in Dakar, will introduce a dedicated Investment Track designed to deepen capital engagement across West Africa’s energy landscape. Building on the region’s expanding upstream activity, infrastructure development and cross-border integration, the track will serve as a platform where governments, investors and project developers can align on investment pathways across the MSGBC basin.

 




  

At the core of the Investment Track will be the Ministerial Leadership & Global Capital Roundtable, where energy ministers will convene to examine how enhanced regional cooperation, regulatory alignment and coordinated infrastructure development can accelerate capital flows into the sector. The session is expected to focus on the policy and financing frameworks required to unlock large-scale projects, including investment codes such as Mauritania’s 2025 reform, as well as strengthening fiscal incentives and improving regulatory clarity to attract capital into the energy sector.

The Investment Track is designed to move beyond dialogue and into deal facilitation, bringing together decision-makers who can directly shape the next phase of energy investment

For the first time at the MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power event, the Project Development Clinic will introduce a more technical format. In this small-group advisory setting, project developers, government representatives and investors will engage directly on project challenges. The clinic aims to improve project structuring, address financing bottlenecks and identify practical solutions to accelerate development timelines and move projects closer to final investment decisions.

The Investment Track will also feature structured Business-to-Business Matchmaking sessions designed to connect stakeholders across the energy value chain. These targeted engagements will facilitate discussions between investors, operators, service companies and public-sector institutions, enabling participants to explore partnerships and co-investment opportunities.

Together, these sessions reflect the MSGBC region’s broader shift toward investment-led growth. In Senegal, this momentum is already visible through the partnership between state-owned agencies APIX and COS-PETROGAZ to improve the business environment for energy projects and streamline investment processes. With PETROSEN advancing development work on the Yakaar-Teranga gas project and targeting a final investment decision in December 2026, alongside new exploration opportunities emerging onshore, the Investment Track will provide a platform to connect the region’s resource potential with investors and project developers.

“The Investment Track is designed to move beyond dialogue and into deal facilitation, bringing together decision-makers who can directly shape the next phase of energy investment across the region. By creating a space for investors, project developers and public-sector stakeholders to engage directly, the track will help turn investment priorities into concrete partnerships and project opportunities,” states Sandra Jeque, Events and Project Director, Energy Capital & Power.

Explore opportunities, foster partnerships and stay at the forefront of the MSGBC region’s oil, gas and power sector. Visit www.MSGBCOilGasAndPower.com to secure your participation at the MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 conference. To sponsor or participate as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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Afreximbank and partners bring together investors and industrialists in Benin to Accelerate local processing and investment in Special Economic Zones

Published

14 hours ago

on

November 4, 2026

By

Afreximbank

Held under the theme “Investing in Local Processing and Industrialisation”, the forum brought together international investors, industrialists, buyers and development finance institutions to explore the vast opportunities for local processing and strategic partnerships offered by the GDIZ

COTONOU, Benin, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com), in partnership with the Société d’Investissement et de Promotion de l’Industrie (SIPI-BENIN S.A), the entity responsible for developing the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ), and Panafritex, hosted the Special Economic Zones Investment Forum (FocusSEZ 2026) on 21 and 22 October 2026 at the Sofitel Cotonou Marina Hotel and the GDIZ.

 




  

Held under the theme “Investing in Local Processing and Industrialisation”, the forum brought together international investors, industrialists, buyers and development finance institutions to explore the vast opportunities for local processing and strategic partnerships offered by the GDIZ.

Local processing at the heart of discussions

In his address, Mr Jean Arsene Yemina, Regional Director of Operations for Francophone West Africa at Afreximbank, speaking on behalf of Ms Kanayo Awani, Executive Vice President, Intra-African Trade and Export Development, Afreximbank, highlighted the role of financing and industrial partnerships in transforming Africa’s raw materials into finished products:

“Here in Benin, textiles have become the driving force behind this transformation. The Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone was established through a partnership between the Government of Benin and ARISE IIP, with Afreximbank proud to have contributed to financing its development.

“Here in Benin, the textile industry has become the driving force behind this transformation. The Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone was created through a partnership between the Government of Benin and ARISE IIP, and Afreximbank is proud to have helped finance its establishment. Today, the zone is home to West Africa’s first fully integrated cotton-to-garment manufacturing platform, operated by Benin Textile (BTEX). The entire value chain, from ginning and spinning to weaving and finished garments, is carried out on African soil by African hands. Before the creation of the GDIZ, less than 1% of Benin’s cotton was processed locally. In just three years, the zone has come to process approximately 40,000 metric tons of cotton—nearly 12% of national production—and to produce millions of “Made in Benin” garments for major international brands such as US Polo, Kiabi, and H&M.”

He also highlighted similar efforts underway at the GDIZ to develop local processing in the cashew, soybean and shea value chains.

Mr Létondji Beheton, Director General of SIPI-BENIN S.A., emphasised the need to strengthen value addition across the continent:

“Our ambition can no longer be limited to producing and exporting raw materials. We must go further by processing more of these resources on our continent, developing competitive industries, strengthening our value chains and retaining a greater share of the wealth generated from our natural resources.”

He added: “It is against this backdrop that the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ) was established, as the outcome of a public-private partnership between the Republic of Benin and ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms (ARISE IIP). This integrated industrial platform embodies a shared commitment to making local processing a driver of economic growth, job creation and industrial development.

“By attracting manufacturing facilities and developing integrated value chains, the GDIZ is helping transform raw materials into higher-value-added products, strengthen Benin’s industrial capacity and enhance its competitiveness in regional and international markets. In doing so, it is contributing to the development of a more diversified economy that generates wealth and creates sustainable opportunities for the country.”

Africa has significant potential to strengthen its position in the global textile industry

Mr Arvind Mathur, CEO of PANAFRITEX, highlighted the role of ARISE IIP’s textile platform in developing an integrated textile industry in Africa, capable of transforming the continent’s cotton into finished, high-value-added products.

“Africa has significant potential to strengthen its position in the global textile industry. Realising this ambition will require the development of integrated industrial capacities that can transform cotton grown on the continent into higher-value-added finished products, while enhancing the competitiveness of the sector and expanding its access to international markets.

“At PANAFRITEX, we are contributing to this momentum by developing a model that brings together industrial processing, business development and the promotion of finished products. Our own brands, Obalé and SúSú, are part of this approach, connecting Africa’s manufacturing capabilities with consumer markets.

“The commissioning of our first industrial facilities at the GDIZ in Benin marks a major milestone in the rollout of this model. At the same time, the development of new facilities in Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana and Tanzania reflects our ambition to progressively expand our industrial footprint across the continent.

“Through this expansion, we aim to contribute to strengthening Africa’s textile value chains, creating skilled jobs and ensuring that a greater share of the value generated is retained locally.”

Financing, Market Access and Business Networking

Discussions focused on the development of a new generation of African industrial hubs, the cotton value chain, financing for the textile industry, as well as logistics and integrated supply chains. The programme also featured business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-government (B2G) meetings with targeted public-sector institutions, aimed at identifying investment opportunities, financing solutions and potential business partnerships.

Afreximbank presented the range of financial instruments and support facilities it offers investors and businesses to facilitate the establishment and expansion of their industrial operations. These include long-term financing and equipment financing, trade finance and working capital facilities, guarantees and risk-sharing mechanisms, as well as project preparation support and equity investment through the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA).

The Bank also highlighted its Africa Buyers Programme, which connects African buyers with manufacturers operating in industrial zones across the continent. The initiative aims to complement access to finance with market opportunities for products manufactured in Africa.

A full day was dedicated to a visit to the GDIZ, during which participants toured its infrastructure and industrial facilities and took part in business matchmaking sessions bringing together investors, manufacturers and buyers. These activities were designed to facilitate the establishment of new manufacturing facilities and expand sourcing opportunities for “Made in Benin” products, particularly in agribusiness, textiles, plastics, packaging and industrial equipment.

Across sectors ranging from agro-processing and textiles to plastics, packaging and industrial equipment, the overarching objective is to accelerate the establishment of new production facilities and strengthen the supply of quality-certified “Made in Benin” products.

An Integrated Model for Advancing Industrial Sovereignty

Covering 1,640 hectares, the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ) is the result of a strategic partnership between the Republic of Benin and ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms. Designed as a comprehensive, integrated ecosystem, it supports investors across the entire value chain, from securing supplies of locally sourced agricultural and mineral raw materials to industrial processing and the export of finished products, leveraging its direct connectivity to the country’s logistics infrastructure and the Port of Cotonou.

By hosting this international forum, Benin is once again demonstrating its ability to offer an attractive business environment, an enabling regulatory framework and world-class infrastructure to help build the future of African industry.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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