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Global advertising spend to surpass $1trn for first time this year

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WARC
Projected 10.7% rise in global spend this year equivalent to an additional $104bn in advertiser investment, the second-highest absolute rise on record

One in five dollars (22.1%) spent on ads outside of China is paid to Google; DOJ ruling now threatens $32.9bn of potential growth over the next two years

Advertisers are due to spend $299bn this holiday season, with online platforms such as Amazon ($16.9bn in holiday-season ad revenue) set to be the biggest beneficiaries

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 – November 2024 update
27 November 2024 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is on course to grow 10.7% this year to a total of $1.08trn – the strongest growth rate in six years and the largest absolute rise on record if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded. The new forecast, published today, represents a 0.2 percentage point (pp) upgrade on WARC’s last global forecast in August.  
 Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.6%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global advertising market worth $1.24trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014.WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide. New for this edition, WARC is leveraging a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points, spanning macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.While the headline growth rate is mostly being driven by online media, a good year for TV has also made a notable contribution. Linear TV spend is expected to end the year 1.9% higher, at $153.6bn, following two years of decline. TV has been boosted by political advertising – particularly in the US – during the fourth quarter and both the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament in the third. Linear TV now accounts for just 14.3% of global advertising spend, however, down from a peak of 41.3% in 2013.Building upon a solid performance for legacy media, pure play internet, which encompasses advertising revenue among online-only businesses such as Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, is poised to grow by 14.1% to a total of $741.4bn – over two thirds (68.8%) of all ad spend.Social media is the largest individual sector within pure play internet – and the largest advertising medium of all by extension – with a total of $252.7bn this year equivalent to 23.5% of the global ad market. Prospects for the social market have been revised upwards this year to +19.3%, owing mostly to stronger-than expected results for Facebook, Instagram and TikTok over the first nine months of the year.James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research says: “Our latest forecast anticipates $104bn in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were discounted.“Whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, however, as 2025 presents a sliding doors moment due to heightened regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok – together a quarter of the ad market outside of China. This, alongside an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate, may spell uncertain times ahead for the businesses that rely on advertising trade.“By leveraging WARC’s proprietary neural network, which delivers timely and precise insights based on over two million datapoints, practitioners can navigate these dynamic conditions and plan ahead for a rapidly evolving advertising landscape.”Key themes outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 Q4 update are:GOOGLE’S 90% SHARE OF SEARCH MARKET IS A MONOPOLY, DOJ RULESOne in five dollars (22.1%) spent on advertising outside of China is paid to Google for its search services. Further, at an expected $197.7bn in 2024 (+13.0% year-on-year), Google alone accounts for 90.1% of all search advertising (excluding China). These commanding shares are similar in the US, leading the Department of Justice (DOJ) to rule last week that Google has an effective monopoly on the search market.The court believes that Google also uses its search dominance to inflate the cost per click (up by approximately 7.5% this year) and maintain superior targeting, effectively blocking competitors from offering viable alternatives.Outcomes from the ruling range from Google ceasing payments to handset manufactures and others for default preference – at a cost of approximately $30bn per annum – to the selling off of its Chrome business to a third party.One potential suitor – Bing – still struggles with adoption and advertiser investment despite Microsoft’s $100bn investment, accounting for just 5.9% of search spend outside of China. Bing’s ad revenues are expected to be up just 5.1% this year – compared to a rise of 11.9% for total search and 13.0% for Google – to a total of $12.9bn.Apple already makes $5.1bn from search ads, mostly via its app store, per Omdia Advertising Intelligence estimates, and could create its own search engine given its financial and distribution resources. The device manufacturer may hesitate to proceed, however, due to the high costs associated with maintaining a search business aside a general strategic misalignment. A leftfield entrant – perhaps Elon Musk’s X on the lookout for new revenue streams after losing $5.9bn in ad revenue since its 2022 takeover – may materialise, but on the whole natural successors to Google remain unclear.With the ongoing uncertainty around the practicalities of the DOJ ruling, and the probability that Google will appeal it vigorously in the coming months, WARC is maintaining its growth forecast of +9.0% next year and +7.0% in 2026 for the company while the situation develops, leaving a potential $231bn ad business and $32.9bn of growth in the balance over the next two years.HOLIDAYS ARE COMINGAdvertisers the world over are expected to spend $299.2bn during the final quarter of the year, well over half of which will be spent during the holiday season. This represents a 10.2% rise from the previous year, up marginally (+0.2pp) from our August forecast.The fourth quarter is crucial for retailers, typically accounting for over 30% of annual ad spend within the sector which represents the intense battle for consumer salience and share of wallet each year. Retailers will spend $45.6bn on advertising during Q4 2024, up 5.0% compared to last year. TV is set to attract 15.9% of this spend, at $6.8bn, with nearing a quarter (23.3%) of this – $1.6bn – spent on ads delivered via connected TVs (CTV) so as to leverage the additional targeting capabilities these devices can afford advertisers.Advertising on retail media platforms is also set to peak during the fourth quarter as brands vie to reach consumers close to the point of purchase. Globally, retail media spend is forecast to rise 16.4% in Q4 2024 to a total of $46.2bn – a new high. Amazon alone is expected to net $16.9bn from advertisers at this time, up 18.0% from the previous year.The technology and electronics sector is expected to spend most in online retail media environments during the fourth quarter, with an anticipated total of $7.2bn up 18.7% from last year. For context, this is over three times more than the sector spends on TV.It’s also a big time of year for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands, with the alcoholic drinks (+13.5% to $3.9bn), cosmetics (+13.8% to $5.2bn), food (+19.4% to $5.4bn) and soft drinks (+22.0% to $4.5bn) sectors all increasing retail media spend and allocating an increasing share of their ad budgets to online retail platforms this year.Overall, retail media ad spend is forecast to reach $154.8bn this year, with a further rise of 14.8% expected next year and 13.5% in 2026, by when the market would be worth $201.6bn.CANADA CALLS TIME ON TIKTOKThis month, the Canadian government ordered TikTok Technology Canada, Inc. to wind up its Canadian operations under the Investment Canada Act, citing national security concerns. This move forces TikTok to halt sales operations in Canada but does not block Canadians’ access to the app or its content creation capabilities. TikTok has vowed to challenge the order in court.There are few signs that advertisers are reining in their TikTok budgets; WARC believes TikTok’s ad billings grew by 27.1% to $17.8bn over the first nine months of 2024, even as the prospect of tighter regulation comes into sharper focus.Globally, TikTok’s audience is now almost at parity with Instagram, but users spend twice as long with TikTok. A ban is most likely to be to the benefit of Instagram, Snap and, to a lesser extent, YouTube thanks to its analogous Shorts format, mostly due to the migration of content creators.Brian Wieser of Madison & Wall estimates that some C$500m annually will be up for grabs if TikTok were to exit Canada. This scenario has not yet been factored into WARC’s forecasts pending the appeal process; indeed, WARC now expects TikTok to generate $24.6bn in advertising revenue (excl. China) this year, a rise of 25.9% from 2023 but equivalent to just 9.1% of all social advertising spend.A complimentary executive summary by WARC’s James McDonald, author of the report, is available to read here. WARC subscribers can read the article and access additional data here.

Energy

U.S.-Africa Energy & Minerals Forum Expands to Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Security

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Africa

This year’s U.S.-Africa Energy & Minerals Forum in Houston signals a strategic shift toward integrated energy and critical minerals investment, strengthening U.S. partnerships across Africa’s resource and industrial value chains

HOUSTON, United States of America, February 26, 2026/APO Group/ –The U.S.-Africa Energy & Minerals Forum (USAEMF) has relaunched with a dedicated focus on critical minerals, marking an important evolution in its role as a platform for U.S.-Africa commercial engagement. Building on its foundation in energy, power and industrial projects, the forum’s expanded scope positions it at the center of investment conversations shaping the future energy economy.

 

Scheduled for July 21–22, 2026, in Houston, Texas, USAEMF comes at a time of surging global demand for copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese and rare earth elements, driven by electrification, battery storage, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. Africa is increasingly critical to securing these materials, highlighting how energy and minerals are now interconnected pillars of industrial growth, geopolitical stability and decarbonization.

The forum’s minerals mandate deepens engagement with African producers – particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), home to some of the world’s largest copper and cobalt reserves. Momentum is building through the U.S.–DRC strategic minerals framework and the U.S.-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, a major investment platform supported by the DFC and private partners. The consortium is pursuing a 40% stake in the Mutanda and Kamoto copper-cobalt operations in a $9 billion transaction, securing long-term supply for allied markets while reinforcing cooperation on infrastructure, security and supply-chain governance.

Placing critical minerals at the center while maintaining strong hydrocarbons engagement strengthens U.S.-Africa commercial ties

U.S. financing is also expanding across the region, with the DFC managing a continental portfolio exceeding $13 billion to support mining, processing and transport infrastructure for critical mineral supply chains. Recent commitments include rare earth, graphite and potash projects in Malawi, Mozambique and Gabon; broader investments in Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia and South Africa; and $553 million linked to the development of the Lobito Corridor. The DFC is also a major backer of TechMet, a U.S.-supported investment firm valued at over $1 billion, which is raising up to $200 million to expand copper, cobalt, lithium and rare earth assets and pursue new opportunities across the DRC and Zambia. Together, these initiatives underscore Washington’s push to diversify battery-mineral supply while positioning Africa as a long-term partner in clean energy and industrial value chains.

Houston’s role as host city reflects the alignment between American industrial capacity and African resource development. Long established as a global energy hub, the city is expanding into energy transition technologies, advanced materials, carbon management and industrial innovation. By convening African governments with U.S. private equity, development finance institutions, exporters, insurers and technical service providers, the forum creates a commercial platform capable of converting mineral potential into bankable projects.

“The evolution from USAEF to USAEMF reflects a broader shift toward integrated energy and mineral development,” states Nadine Levin, Portfolio Director at Energy Capital & Power, forum organizers. “Placing critical minerals at the center while maintaining strong hydrocarbons engagement strengthens U.S.-Africa commercial ties and advances projects that deliver long-term shared value.”

While critical minerals define the forum’s strategic expansion, the U.S.’ longstanding role in Africa’s energy sector remains central to the platform’s value proposition. American energy companies continue to advance exploration and development across key upstream markets, support gas monetization in the Gulf of Guinea and revitalize mature production in North Africa. U.S. export credit and development finance are also helping unlock large-scale LNG capacity in Mozambique while supporting optimization and expansion across existing gas infrastructure in West Africa – demonstrating how American capital, engineering expertise and risk-mitigation tools convert resource potential into delivered energy systems.

USAEMF is the leading platform connecting U.S. capital and technical expertise with Africa’s energy and minerals sectors. For more information or to participate at the upcoming forum, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Pesalink and Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) Unlock Cross-Border Payments in Local Currencies in Kenya

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Pesalink

The Pesalink–PAPSS partnership will reduce costs, speed up settlements, and help individuals, SMEs and businesses send money more efficiently across borders

NAIROBI, Kenya, February 26, 2026/APO Group/ —

  • Instant 24/7 bank-to-bank transfers across African borders in local currencies.
  • Simpler cross-border payments for individuals, businesses, and SMEs.
  • 80 plus Pesalink network participants now linked to 160 plus PAPSS participating banks.

 

Pesalink, Kenya’s de facto instant payment network, has partnered with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to ease cross-border payment and speed up regional financial integration.

 

The partnership enables instant 24/7 cross-border payments from PAPSS participants into banks and mobile money operators within the Pesalink network in Kenya, all settled in local currencies. This reduces complex correspondent banking requirements and reliance on foreign reserve currencies.

 

Kenyan banks will now be able to offer faster, cheaper cross-border payments

PAPSS, an initiative of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) in collaboration with the African Union and the AfCFTA Secretariat, enables cross-border payments between African countries. Pesalink is now a Technical Connectivity Provider. It means that 80 plus Kenyan bank, fintech, SACCO and telco participants on the Pesalink network will be connected to 160 plus commercial banks and fintechs on the PAPSS platform.

 

Cross-border payments remain expensive and slow for many African businesses. The 2023 (http://apo-opa.co/4baDSh7) World Bank Remittance Prices report indicates that sending money across African borders incurs on average 7-8% of the total value sent (above the global average of 6–7%). Settlement can also take three to seven business days.

 

The Pesalink–PAPSS partnership will reduce costs, speed up settlements, and help individuals, SMEs and businesses send money more efficiently across borders.

 

Speaking during the partnership signing held at Pesalink offices in Nairobi, PAPSS CEO Mike Ogbalu III said, “For PAPSS to deliver true impact, collaboration with national and private switches like Pesalink is essential. Pesalink is the first switch we’ve piloted for transaction termination in Kenya, and we are already seeing greater adoption by opening more channels for seamless, local-currency cross-border payments across Africa.”

 

Pesalink CEO, Gituku Kirika, said “Kenyan banks will now be able to offer faster, cheaper cross-border payments. They will be helping their customers grow more regional trading relationships and thrive in a more integrated digital economy.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

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Events

Africa Trade Conference Returns to Cape Town with Esteemed Speakers Driving Africa’s Trade Agenda

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Africa

Second edition convenes global policymakers, business leaders, and innovators to accelerate Africa’s integration into global trade

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, February 26, 2026/APO Group/ –Access Bank Plc (www.AccessBankPLC.com) is proud to announce the distinguished line-up of speakers for the second edition of the Africa Trade Conference (ATC 2026), scheduled to take place on March 11, 2026, at the Cape Town International Convention Centre, Cape Town, South Africa. Building on the strong foundation of its inaugural edition, ATC 2026 will convene an exceptional assembly of global and African leaders, policymakers, investors, and business executives committed to shaping the future of trade on the continent.

The Africa Trade Conference has rapidly emerged as a premier platform for advancing dialogue and action around Africa’s evolving role in global commerce. The 2026 edition will feature influential voices from across finance, government, development institutions, and the private sector, who will share insights on unlocking trade opportunities, strengthening intra-African commerce, enabling business expansion, and positioning African enterprises for global competitiveness.

The confirmed speakers represent a powerful cross-section of leaders driving Africa’s economic transformation.

Building on the momentum of its maiden edition, which convened senior decision-makers from 28 countries, the 2026 conference with the theme “Turning Vision into Velocity: Building Africa’s Trade Ecosystem for Real-World Impact”, will have the keynote address delivered by Kennedy Mbekeani, Director General, Southern Africa Region, African Development Bank (AfDB), alongside Kwabena Ayirebi, Managing Director, Banking Operations at the African Export-Import Bank. Their joint keynote will address the evolving financing landscape for African trade and the strategic pathways for unlocking continental prosperity.

The welcome address will be delivered by Roosevelt Ogbonna, CEO/GMD, Access Bank Plc, who will set the tone for discussions centered on trade transformation, financial inclusion, and regional competitiveness, while Tolu Oyekan, Managing Director & Partner at Boston Consulting Group, will deliver insights on “Africa Trade Outlook 2026”, examining emerging macroeconomic trends, supply chain shifts, and growth opportunities across key sectors.  The CEO of Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, Mike Ogbalu, will be engaging the conference participants on the topic, “Building a Connected Africa Through Trade, Payments & Technology”, focusing on how payment interoperability and digital infrastructure can accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agenda.

The calibre of speakers confirmed for this year’s conference underscores the urgency and opportunity before us

The conference will also host a High-Level Ministerial Panel that features Elizabeth Ofosu-Adjare, the Minister for Trade, Agribusiness & Industry, Ghana; Tiroeaone Ntsima, Minister of Trade and Entrepreneurship, Botswana; Mr. Florian Witt, Divisional Head, International & Corporate Banking Oddo-BHF, Ms. Nathalie Louat – Global Director, International Finance Corporation (IFC), Dr Isaiah Rathumba – Head of Department, Limpopo Economic Development, Environment and Tourism and Mr. Alfred Idialu – Chief Rep Officer, Deutsche Bank among other policymakers shaping trade policy across the continent.

Commenting on the announcement, Roosevelt Ogbonna, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Access Bank Plc, said:
“The Africa Trade Conference reflects our unwavering commitment to advancing Africa’s economic transformation by creating a platform that brings together the leaders, institutions, and ideas shaping the future of trade. The calibre of speakers confirmed for this year’s conference underscores the urgency and opportunity before us. Africa is not only participating in global trade, it is helping to redefine it. Through this convening, we aim to catalyse partnerships, unlock new opportunities for businesses, and accelerate Africa’s integration into global value chains.”

“At Access Bank, we see ourselves not just as financiers, but as connectors of markets, ideas, and opportunities. Our role is to help African businesses move from ambition to impact, from local relevance to global competitiveness.”

With operations in 24 countries globally, including 16 across Africa, Access Bank’s expansive footprint places it in a unique position to facilitate cross-border trade, unlock regional value chains, and simplify the complexities of doing business across markets.

“Our presence across Africa and key global corridors gives us a front-row seat to the realities of trade. It also gives us the responsibility to design solutions that are inclusive, scalable, and future facing. ATC 2026 is part of that commitment, Ogbonna added.

ATC 2026 is expected to catalyze partnerships, enable policy dialogue, and provide actionable strategies for businesses operating within and beyond the continent.

The Access Bank Chief puts it thus, “Africa will not be a spectator in the remaking of global trade. We will be one of its architects. ATC 2026 is where those blueprints will be drawn.”

For more information and registration, please visit https://apo-opa.co/4sdXWF7

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Access Bank PLC.

 

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