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Global advertising spend to surpass $1trn for first time this year

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Projected 10.7% rise in global spend this year equivalent to an additional $104bn in advertiser investment, the second-highest absolute rise on record

One in five dollars (22.1%) spent on ads outside of China is paid to Google; DOJ ruling now threatens $32.9bn of potential growth over the next two years

Advertisers are due to spend $299bn this holiday season, with online platforms such as Amazon ($16.9bn in holiday-season ad revenue) set to be the biggest beneficiaries

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 – November 2024 update
27 November 2024 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is on course to grow 10.7% this year to a total of $1.08trn – the strongest growth rate in six years and the largest absolute rise on record if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded. The new forecast, published today, represents a 0.2 percentage point (pp) upgrade on WARC’s last global forecast in August.  
 Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.6%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global advertising market worth $1.24trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014.WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide. New for this edition, WARC is leveraging a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points, spanning macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.While the headline growth rate is mostly being driven by online media, a good year for TV has also made a notable contribution. Linear TV spend is expected to end the year 1.9% higher, at $153.6bn, following two years of decline. TV has been boosted by political advertising – particularly in the US – during the fourth quarter and both the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament in the third. Linear TV now accounts for just 14.3% of global advertising spend, however, down from a peak of 41.3% in 2013.Building upon a solid performance for legacy media, pure play internet, which encompasses advertising revenue among online-only businesses such as Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, is poised to grow by 14.1% to a total of $741.4bn – over two thirds (68.8%) of all ad spend.Social media is the largest individual sector within pure play internet – and the largest advertising medium of all by extension – with a total of $252.7bn this year equivalent to 23.5% of the global ad market. Prospects for the social market have been revised upwards this year to +19.3%, owing mostly to stronger-than expected results for Facebook, Instagram and TikTok over the first nine months of the year.James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research says: “Our latest forecast anticipates $104bn in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were discounted.“Whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, however, as 2025 presents a sliding doors moment due to heightened regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok – together a quarter of the ad market outside of China. This, alongside an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate, may spell uncertain times ahead for the businesses that rely on advertising trade.“By leveraging WARC’s proprietary neural network, which delivers timely and precise insights based on over two million datapoints, practitioners can navigate these dynamic conditions and plan ahead for a rapidly evolving advertising landscape.”Key themes outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 Q4 update are:GOOGLE’S 90% SHARE OF SEARCH MARKET IS A MONOPOLY, DOJ RULESOne in five dollars (22.1%) spent on advertising outside of China is paid to Google for its search services. Further, at an expected $197.7bn in 2024 (+13.0% year-on-year), Google alone accounts for 90.1% of all search advertising (excluding China). These commanding shares are similar in the US, leading the Department of Justice (DOJ) to rule last week that Google has an effective monopoly on the search market.The court believes that Google also uses its search dominance to inflate the cost per click (up by approximately 7.5% this year) and maintain superior targeting, effectively blocking competitors from offering viable alternatives.Outcomes from the ruling range from Google ceasing payments to handset manufactures and others for default preference – at a cost of approximately $30bn per annum – to the selling off of its Chrome business to a third party.One potential suitor – Bing – still struggles with adoption and advertiser investment despite Microsoft’s $100bn investment, accounting for just 5.9% of search spend outside of China. Bing’s ad revenues are expected to be up just 5.1% this year – compared to a rise of 11.9% for total search and 13.0% for Google – to a total of $12.9bn.Apple already makes $5.1bn from search ads, mostly via its app store, per Omdia Advertising Intelligence estimates, and could create its own search engine given its financial and distribution resources. The device manufacturer may hesitate to proceed, however, due to the high costs associated with maintaining a search business aside a general strategic misalignment. A leftfield entrant – perhaps Elon Musk’s X on the lookout for new revenue streams after losing $5.9bn in ad revenue since its 2022 takeover – may materialise, but on the whole natural successors to Google remain unclear.With the ongoing uncertainty around the practicalities of the DOJ ruling, and the probability that Google will appeal it vigorously in the coming months, WARC is maintaining its growth forecast of +9.0% next year and +7.0% in 2026 for the company while the situation develops, leaving a potential $231bn ad business and $32.9bn of growth in the balance over the next two years.HOLIDAYS ARE COMINGAdvertisers the world over are expected to spend $299.2bn during the final quarter of the year, well over half of which will be spent during the holiday season. This represents a 10.2% rise from the previous year, up marginally (+0.2pp) from our August forecast.The fourth quarter is crucial for retailers, typically accounting for over 30% of annual ad spend within the sector which represents the intense battle for consumer salience and share of wallet each year. Retailers will spend $45.6bn on advertising during Q4 2024, up 5.0% compared to last year. TV is set to attract 15.9% of this spend, at $6.8bn, with nearing a quarter (23.3%) of this – $1.6bn – spent on ads delivered via connected TVs (CTV) so as to leverage the additional targeting capabilities these devices can afford advertisers.Advertising on retail media platforms is also set to peak during the fourth quarter as brands vie to reach consumers close to the point of purchase. Globally, retail media spend is forecast to rise 16.4% in Q4 2024 to a total of $46.2bn – a new high. Amazon alone is expected to net $16.9bn from advertisers at this time, up 18.0% from the previous year.The technology and electronics sector is expected to spend most in online retail media environments during the fourth quarter, with an anticipated total of $7.2bn up 18.7% from last year. For context, this is over three times more than the sector spends on TV.It’s also a big time of year for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands, with the alcoholic drinks (+13.5% to $3.9bn), cosmetics (+13.8% to $5.2bn), food (+19.4% to $5.4bn) and soft drinks (+22.0% to $4.5bn) sectors all increasing retail media spend and allocating an increasing share of their ad budgets to online retail platforms this year.Overall, retail media ad spend is forecast to reach $154.8bn this year, with a further rise of 14.8% expected next year and 13.5% in 2026, by when the market would be worth $201.6bn.CANADA CALLS TIME ON TIKTOKThis month, the Canadian government ordered TikTok Technology Canada, Inc. to wind up its Canadian operations under the Investment Canada Act, citing national security concerns. This move forces TikTok to halt sales operations in Canada but does not block Canadians’ access to the app or its content creation capabilities. TikTok has vowed to challenge the order in court.There are few signs that advertisers are reining in their TikTok budgets; WARC believes TikTok’s ad billings grew by 27.1% to $17.8bn over the first nine months of 2024, even as the prospect of tighter regulation comes into sharper focus.Globally, TikTok’s audience is now almost at parity with Instagram, but users spend twice as long with TikTok. A ban is most likely to be to the benefit of Instagram, Snap and, to a lesser extent, YouTube thanks to its analogous Shorts format, mostly due to the migration of content creators.Brian Wieser of Madison & Wall estimates that some C$500m annually will be up for grabs if TikTok were to exit Canada. This scenario has not yet been factored into WARC’s forecasts pending the appeal process; indeed, WARC now expects TikTok to generate $24.6bn in advertising revenue (excl. China) this year, a rise of 25.9% from 2023 but equivalent to just 9.1% of all social advertising spend.A complimentary executive summary by WARC’s James McDonald, author of the report, is available to read here. WARC subscribers can read the article and access additional data here.

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$40B Africa Energy Fund Targets Universal Access – What it Means for Clean Cooking

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With the launch of a $40 billion fund to expand energy access, African Energy Week 2025: Invest in African Energies will serve as a key platform to drive investment in clean cooking solutions and sustainable energy strategies across the continent

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, April 11, 2025/APO Group/ –A new $40 billion Africa Energy Fund, launched at the Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit in Dar es Salaam, aims to provide 300 million people with access to cleaner, more reliable energy by 2030. The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader push for sustainable energy solutions, including clean cooking technologies, which remain one of the most critical yet underfunded sectors in the energy transition. As African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies 2025 approaches, discussions on scaling investment in clean cooking solutions will be high on the agenda, particularly in light of the commitments made by African nations to advance energy access.

Access to clean cooking solutions remains one of Africa’s most pressing energy challenges. Over 900 million people on the continent still rely on traditional biomass, such as wood and charcoal, for cooking. The health, environmental and economic consequences are severe – household air pollution from these fuels contributes to over 600,000 premature deaths annually, while deforestation and carbon emissions continue to rise. While electrification projects are a major focus of Africa’s energy transition, clean cooking remains an urgent issue that requires targeted investment and policy support.

The Fund is a step in the right direction and demonstrates global commitment to accelerating energy access and supporting Africa’s transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy solutions. The World Bank has pledged $22 billion to support the initiative, while the African Development Bank has committed $18.2 billion. Additional contributions include $2.65 billion from the Islamic Development Bank and $1 billion from the OPEC Fund, highlighting strong financial backing from major international institutions.

Several African countries have demonstrated strong commitments to expanding clean cooking access through national policies, targeted financing mechanisms and public-private partnerships. Kenya, seeking universal access by 2028, is advancing LPG expansion, electric cooking and bioethanol alternatives with support from private sector investment and international partnerships. By subsidizing LPG and investing in infrastructure, the country has significantly increased adoption rates. Neighboring Tanzania is integrating clean cooking solutions into its national electrification plan and broader energy transition strategy, supported by a dedicated National Clean Cooking Strategy. Meanwhile, Ghana has adopted a multi-pronged approach, enhancing the affordability of LPG and promoting efficient biomass stoves. The country is also raising public awareness of the health benefits of clean cooking, while encouraging local manufacturing of stoves and fuel alternatives.

The newly-launched energy fund not only works to expand electricity access, but also to catalyze economic opportunities by powering industries, businesses and households. Reliable energy is a fundamental enabler of economic growth, and investments in clean cooking align with broader energy access goals by reducing health costs, increasing productivity and improving gender equality. AEW: Invest in African Energies 2025 – the leading energy event for deal-making, policy discussions and industry networking – provides a crucial platform for stakeholders to explore investment opportunities in clean cooking and broader energy access initiatives.

Discussions will focus on mobilizing financing for clean cooking projects, including public-private partnerships and carbon credit mechanisms; strategies for integrating clean cooking into national electrification plans; and best practices from leading African countries and how their policies can be replicated across the continent. Discussions will also focus on scaling up investment in clean energy infrastructure, including off-grid electrification and innovative financing mechanisms for clean cooking technologies.

With the launch of the Africa Energy Fund and growing momentum around clean cooking investments, Africa stands at a pivotal moment in its energy transition. Achieving universal energy access requires a multi-faceted approach that includes large-scale electrification projects, off-grid solutions and immediate interventions in clean cooking. AEW 2025 provides an opportunity for governments, businesses and investors to align their strategies and secure funding to drive impact. The commitment to connecting 300 million Africans to cleaner energy is ambitious, but with the right policies and investments, it is within reach – and clean cooking solutions must be a central part of the conversation.

AEW: Invest in African Energies is the platform of choice for project operators, financiers, technology providers and government, and has emerged as the official place to sign deals in African energy. Visit www.AECWeek.com for more information about this exciting event.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber

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Afreximbank commissions first-of-its-kind African Trade Centre in Abuja, Nigeria – marking a new era for Intra-African trade

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With the opening of the Abuja AATC, Afreximbank continues its mission to promote intra-African trade and investment opportunities, laying the groundwork for a more prosperous and integrated African economy

ABUJA, Nigeria, April 11, 2025/APO Group/ –Multilateral Bank African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has officially commissioned its first Afreximbank African Trade Centre (AATC) today in Abuja, Nigeria, ushering in a transformative era for trade and investment in Africa.

During the grand commissioning ceremony, speakers, including Hon. Dr. George Akume, Secretary to the Government of Federation, Nigeria representing H. E. Bola Ahmed Tinubu GCFR, President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, The Federal Republic of Nigeria, highlighted the AATC’s strategic importance, its pivotal role in shaping Africa’s economic future and the significant impact it is poised to make on Africa’s trade and investment landscape.

Speaking at the Ceremony, Dr. Akume stated, “Afreximbank African Trade Centre (AATC) is a landmark project that embodies our shared commitment to advancing Intra-African Trade, fostering economic integration and unlocking a vast potential of our continent. This occasion is a realisation of a bold vision for Africa’s economic future. AATC stands as a testament to the power of collaboration, resilience and forward-thinking leadership. It is more than a physical structure; it is the beginning of innovation, a hub for entrepreneurship and a catalyst for sustainable development.

He added, “This centre will serve as a critical platform for trade facilitation, capacity building and investment promotion – key pillars of Africa’s economic transformation. Afreximbank’s role in shaping Africa’s trade landscape cannot be overstated because the institution has consistently demonstrated its commitment to breaking down barriers, bridging financing gaps and empowering African businesses to be competitive. All these have been accomplished through flagship projects such as the AfCFTA adjustment fund that is managed by Afreximbank’s subsidiary, Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), PAPSS and other Trade Finance Programmes. The AATC located in Abuja represents yet another milestone in this journey and this aligns perfectly with Nigeria’s strategic priorities under the Federal Government’s eight-point agenda, particularly in the areas of job creation, economic diversification, and regional integration. As we commission this remarkable edifice today, let us renew our resolve to be the stronger, more interconnected and prosperous Africa.”

Prof. Benedict Oramah, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, echoed this sentiment, remarking, “The Abuja AATC is the first of several AATCs being developed across Africa and the Caribbean. Some would be Afreximbank owned while others would be supported through a franchise-scheme. With these, we expect to create a sizeable network of AATCs that will act as the lighthouses to guide the interconnections and flow of trade and investments within continental Africa and between Africa and Caribbean regions. This AATC Abuja has been a 41-month journey, one built on hope and determination. Like the other AATCs, the Abuja AATC would serve a multi-purpose goal; it will serve as a platform for fostering deeper regional and continental integration and house Afreximbank’s permanent regional office, bringing a three-decade-old aspiration to fruition. This AATC will also offer a technology incubation hub, an SME incubation facility, a Digital Africa Trade Gateway, a conference and exhibition facility and a business hotel.”

Prof. Orama thanked the Federal Government of Nigeria for its support noting that the relationship between the Bank and Nigeria has been truly mutually beneficial and most cordial. “Over the last three decades, successive governments have accorded unflinching support to Afreximbank, responding most positively to capital calls, creating a congenial environment for its smooth operations while providing the Bank significant domestic policy support that helped to execute many of the development programmes in Nigeria.” He said.

This centre will serve as a critical platform for trade facilitation, capacity building and investment promotion – key pillars of Africa’s economic transformation

With the opening of the Abuja AATC, Afreximbank continues its mission to promote intra-African trade and investment opportunities, laying the groundwork for a more prosperous and integrated African economy.

Over 500 distinguished guests attended the commissioning ceremony, notably, Hon. William F. Duguid, J.P. Senior Minister, Prime Minister’s Office, Republic of Barbados, Hon. Sylvester Grisby, Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Liberia, Hon. Adebayo Olawale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Nigeria and his counterpart, Hon. Dr. Jumoke Oduwole MFR, Minister of Trade and Investment, Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment, Nigeria as well as Nigeria’s former Vice President Hon. Namadi Sambo. Hon. Bockaire Kalokoh, Deputy Minister of Finance of Sierra Leone and Hon. Sheilla Chikomo, Deputy Minister Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Zimbabwe represented their respective countries. The event was also well attended by business leaders led by billionaire entrepreneur Mr. Aliko Dangote, Founder and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, Mr Tony Elumelu, Chairman of Transcorp Group, policymakers, pan-African CEOs, and entrepreneurs.

Their presence showcased a shared vision and determination to enhance trade across Africa, as they pledged to work together to leverage the AATC for the continent’s economic transformation.

The Abuja AATC comprises two interconnected nine-storey towers. One tower features world-class commercial A-grade office spaces, a trade and exhibition centre, a conference centre, a technology and SME incubator, a Digital Trade Gateway and a trade information services hub. The adjoining tower boasts a 148-room business hotel, seminar and meeting rooms, a wellness centre, a restaurant and other ancillary facilities. These features are designed to provide a comprehensive ecosystem for trade and business activities, catering to the diverse needs of African businesses. It will also host office spaces for local and international financial institutions and policy organisations, ensuring a complete support system for trade and business activities.

The AATC building is expected to achieve gold – and potentially platinum – Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification by the United States Green Building Council (USGBC), a globally recognised standard for sustainable building design and construction. This certification will make the Abuja AATC one of the few certified buildings in Nigeria and West Africa, underscoring its commitment to environmental sustainability.

The global architect Messrs SVA International developed a multifaceted global design, drawing inspiration from the concept of a bazaar, which reflects the vibrant feature of daily life in many African cities. Construction of the USD120 million project commenced in November 2021 on a prime piece of land measuring 5,856 square meters and achieved completion in 41 months.

The Abuja Afreximbank African Trade Centre (Abuja AATC) is the first of seven planned AATCs across Africa, including Kampala, Uganda, Harare, Zimbabwe, Cairo, Egypt, Yaoundé, Cameroon, Tunis, Tunisia, and Kigali, Rwanda. In addition, Afreximbank recently broke ground in Bridgetown, Barbados, to construct the first AATC outside of Africa. Through franchising and licensing arrangements, the Bank intends to partner with relevant institutions and economic development organizations to establish non-Bank owned ATCs in the rest of Global Africa. These AATCs will serve to link buyers, sellers, suppliers, service providers, enterprises, governments, chambers of commerce, financial institutions, economic development organisations and the general African and global trade and investment community.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

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United Arab Emirates (UAE) Drives Strategic Push into Africa’s Oil & Gas Industry

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The UAE’s recent investments in Mozambique and Egypt highlight its expanding role in Africa’s energy sector, positioning it as the continent’s largest investor and a key partner in driving future growth

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, April 11, 2025/APO Group/ –The UAE’s investment footprint in Africa’s oil and gas sector has expanded with its recent entry into Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin. XRG, the international energy investment arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, made headlines last month by entering Mozambique’s lucrative gas market, underscoring the UAE’s expanding influence in Africa’s energy sector. The move is a key part of the country’s strategy to strengthen its position as a major player in Africa’s energy landscape, highlighting its confidence in the region’s long-term growth potential.

XRG Expands into Mozambique, Egypt  

XRG’s acquisition of a 10% interest in the Area 4 concession in Mozambique’s offshore Rovuma Basin signifies more than just an expansion for the company – it reflects a broader geopolitical and economic vision that aligns with the UAE’s strategic interests. The basin is one of the world’s most significant natural gas reserves, with the potential to shape global LNG markets in the coming decades, driven by integrated gas developments with a production capacity exceeding 25 MTPA. The acquisition includes stakes in the operational Coral South FLNG and the planned Coral North FLNG and Rovuma LNG projects. XRG’s decision to invest in the region underscores its understanding of the growing demand for energy resources and the importance of securing diverse sources to ensure energy security.

In December 2024, XRG partnered with bp to establish a new regional gas platform and joint venture, Arcius Energy, focused on the development of gas assets in Egypt. The company aims to build a world-scale integrated gas and chemicals portfolio to meet rising global demand, leveraging Africa’s gas-rich hotspots to achieve this. Through these investments, the UAE is positioning itself as a leading partner in Africa’s energy future, which will likely continue to strengthen its economic and diplomatic ties with the continent.

UAE Becomes Africa’s Largest Investor

The UAE’s push into Africa’s oil and gas sector is part of a broader trend that has seen it emerge as Africa’s largest investor, surpassing even China. As reported by the Middle East Monitor, the UAE has overtaken China as the continent’s biggest source of foreign direct investment, with investments from Emirati companies totaling $110 billion between 2019 and 2023. This shift marks a significant milestone in the UAE’s strategy to diversify its investment portfolio and expand its influence across Africa, a continent rich in untapped potential and actively seeking foreign capital to drive its growth and development.

With investments spanning key sectors like infrastructure, energy and technology, the UAE has strategically positioned itself as an economic partner of choice for African nations. These investments include green hydrogen projects in Mauritania; Masdar’s $2-billion commitment to renewable energy in Africa through 2030; and the expansion of major players like Dubai’s DP World – which operates six African ports – and Abu Dhabi Ports, which has extended its presence into Guinea, Egypt and Angola. The UAE’s growing investment in Africa’s oil and gas industry aligns with the country’s broader goals of securing reliable energy supplies, diversifying its own energy portfolio and fostering long-term economic partnerships with African nations.

AEW 2025: A Platform for Gulf Investors

The UAE’s accelerated investments in Africa’s energy sector will take center stage at the upcoming African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies 2025 in Cape Town. The conference will provide a platform for Emirati and Gulf investors to engage with key stakeholders, discuss strategies for expanding in Africa and explore new opportunities within the continent’s rapidly evolving energy sector. With a focus on oil, gas and clean energy, AEW 2025 will be a critical gathering for investors like XRG to showcase their projects, forge partnerships and deepen their involvement in Africa’s energy development.

AEW 2025 will also serve as a venue for African energy leaders to discuss the vital role of private investment in unlocking the continent’s energy potential. As a leading investor, the UAE’s growing influence in Africa’s oil and gas sector will be highlighted at the event, reinforcing its position as a key partner in driving investment, innovation and collaboration.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber

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