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Global advertising spend to surpass $1trn for first time this year

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WARC
Projected 10.7% rise in global spend this year equivalent to an additional $104bn in advertiser investment, the second-highest absolute rise on record

One in five dollars (22.1%) spent on ads outside of China is paid to Google; DOJ ruling now threatens $32.9bn of potential growth over the next two years

Advertisers are due to spend $299bn this holiday season, with online platforms such as Amazon ($16.9bn in holiday-season ad revenue) set to be the biggest beneficiaries

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 – November 2024 update
27 November 2024 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is on course to grow 10.7% this year to a total of $1.08trn – the strongest growth rate in six years and the largest absolute rise on record if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded. The new forecast, published today, represents a 0.2 percentage point (pp) upgrade on WARC’s last global forecast in August.  
 Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.6%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global advertising market worth $1.24trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014.WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide. New for this edition, WARC is leveraging a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points, spanning macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.While the headline growth rate is mostly being driven by online media, a good year for TV has also made a notable contribution. Linear TV spend is expected to end the year 1.9% higher, at $153.6bn, following two years of decline. TV has been boosted by political advertising – particularly in the US – during the fourth quarter and both the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament in the third. Linear TV now accounts for just 14.3% of global advertising spend, however, down from a peak of 41.3% in 2013.Building upon a solid performance for legacy media, pure play internet, which encompasses advertising revenue among online-only businesses such as Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, is poised to grow by 14.1% to a total of $741.4bn – over two thirds (68.8%) of all ad spend.Social media is the largest individual sector within pure play internet – and the largest advertising medium of all by extension – with a total of $252.7bn this year equivalent to 23.5% of the global ad market. Prospects for the social market have been revised upwards this year to +19.3%, owing mostly to stronger-than expected results for Facebook, Instagram and TikTok over the first nine months of the year.James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research says: “Our latest forecast anticipates $104bn in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were discounted.“Whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, however, as 2025 presents a sliding doors moment due to heightened regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok – together a quarter of the ad market outside of China. This, alongside an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate, may spell uncertain times ahead for the businesses that rely on advertising trade.“By leveraging WARC’s proprietary neural network, which delivers timely and precise insights based on over two million datapoints, practitioners can navigate these dynamic conditions and plan ahead for a rapidly evolving advertising landscape.”Key themes outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 Q4 update are:GOOGLE’S 90% SHARE OF SEARCH MARKET IS A MONOPOLY, DOJ RULESOne in five dollars (22.1%) spent on advertising outside of China is paid to Google for its search services. Further, at an expected $197.7bn in 2024 (+13.0% year-on-year), Google alone accounts for 90.1% of all search advertising (excluding China). These commanding shares are similar in the US, leading the Department of Justice (DOJ) to rule last week that Google has an effective monopoly on the search market.The court believes that Google also uses its search dominance to inflate the cost per click (up by approximately 7.5% this year) and maintain superior targeting, effectively blocking competitors from offering viable alternatives.Outcomes from the ruling range from Google ceasing payments to handset manufactures and others for default preference – at a cost of approximately $30bn per annum – to the selling off of its Chrome business to a third party.One potential suitor – Bing – still struggles with adoption and advertiser investment despite Microsoft’s $100bn investment, accounting for just 5.9% of search spend outside of China. Bing’s ad revenues are expected to be up just 5.1% this year – compared to a rise of 11.9% for total search and 13.0% for Google – to a total of $12.9bn.Apple already makes $5.1bn from search ads, mostly via its app store, per Omdia Advertising Intelligence estimates, and could create its own search engine given its financial and distribution resources. The device manufacturer may hesitate to proceed, however, due to the high costs associated with maintaining a search business aside a general strategic misalignment. A leftfield entrant – perhaps Elon Musk’s X on the lookout for new revenue streams after losing $5.9bn in ad revenue since its 2022 takeover – may materialise, but on the whole natural successors to Google remain unclear.With the ongoing uncertainty around the practicalities of the DOJ ruling, and the probability that Google will appeal it vigorously in the coming months, WARC is maintaining its growth forecast of +9.0% next year and +7.0% in 2026 for the company while the situation develops, leaving a potential $231bn ad business and $32.9bn of growth in the balance over the next two years.HOLIDAYS ARE COMINGAdvertisers the world over are expected to spend $299.2bn during the final quarter of the year, well over half of which will be spent during the holiday season. This represents a 10.2% rise from the previous year, up marginally (+0.2pp) from our August forecast.The fourth quarter is crucial for retailers, typically accounting for over 30% of annual ad spend within the sector which represents the intense battle for consumer salience and share of wallet each year. Retailers will spend $45.6bn on advertising during Q4 2024, up 5.0% compared to last year. TV is set to attract 15.9% of this spend, at $6.8bn, with nearing a quarter (23.3%) of this – $1.6bn – spent on ads delivered via connected TVs (CTV) so as to leverage the additional targeting capabilities these devices can afford advertisers.Advertising on retail media platforms is also set to peak during the fourth quarter as brands vie to reach consumers close to the point of purchase. Globally, retail media spend is forecast to rise 16.4% in Q4 2024 to a total of $46.2bn – a new high. Amazon alone is expected to net $16.9bn from advertisers at this time, up 18.0% from the previous year.The technology and electronics sector is expected to spend most in online retail media environments during the fourth quarter, with an anticipated total of $7.2bn up 18.7% from last year. For context, this is over three times more than the sector spends on TV.It’s also a big time of year for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands, with the alcoholic drinks (+13.5% to $3.9bn), cosmetics (+13.8% to $5.2bn), food (+19.4% to $5.4bn) and soft drinks (+22.0% to $4.5bn) sectors all increasing retail media spend and allocating an increasing share of their ad budgets to online retail platforms this year.Overall, retail media ad spend is forecast to reach $154.8bn this year, with a further rise of 14.8% expected next year and 13.5% in 2026, by when the market would be worth $201.6bn.CANADA CALLS TIME ON TIKTOKThis month, the Canadian government ordered TikTok Technology Canada, Inc. to wind up its Canadian operations under the Investment Canada Act, citing national security concerns. This move forces TikTok to halt sales operations in Canada but does not block Canadians’ access to the app or its content creation capabilities. TikTok has vowed to challenge the order in court.There are few signs that advertisers are reining in their TikTok budgets; WARC believes TikTok’s ad billings grew by 27.1% to $17.8bn over the first nine months of 2024, even as the prospect of tighter regulation comes into sharper focus.Globally, TikTok’s audience is now almost at parity with Instagram, but users spend twice as long with TikTok. A ban is most likely to be to the benefit of Instagram, Snap and, to a lesser extent, YouTube thanks to its analogous Shorts format, mostly due to the migration of content creators.Brian Wieser of Madison & Wall estimates that some C$500m annually will be up for grabs if TikTok were to exit Canada. This scenario has not yet been factored into WARC’s forecasts pending the appeal process; indeed, WARC now expects TikTok to generate $24.6bn in advertising revenue (excl. China) this year, a rise of 25.9% from 2023 but equivalent to just 9.1% of all social advertising spend.A complimentary executive summary by WARC’s James McDonald, author of the report, is available to read here. WARC subscribers can read the article and access additional data here.

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African Development Bank Partners with Interpol to Combat Financial Crime and Strengthen Anti-Corruption Efforts in Africa

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African Development Bank

According to Interpol’s 2024 Global Financial Fraud Assessment, business email compromise, romance baiting, phishing, and other online frauds pose growing threats to Africa’s digitalized economy

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast, February 21, 2025/APO Group/ –The African Development Bank Group (www.AfDB.org) has taken a significant step forward in its fight against corruption and financial crime by signing a Letter of Intent with the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) today. The Bank Group is the first multilateral development bank to establish such a collaboration with Interpol.

The Letter of Intent was signed on Wednesday by African Development Bank Group President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina and Interpol Secretary General Valdecy Urquiza, who visited the Bank’s headquarters in Abidjan.

The partnership will enhance collaboration between the Bank’s Office of Integrity and Anti-Corruption (https://apo-opa.co/3QrB4ku) and Interpol’s Financial Crime and Anti-Corruption Centre. It will focus on sharing expertise, enhancing investigative capabilities, and developing preventive measures against emerging financial crime threats, including cybercrime, anti-corruption measures, and counter-terrorism financing.

This initiative comes as Africa faces significant challenges of illicit financial flows, estimated at nearly $90 billion annually—a loss of resources that could otherwise be invested in critical development needs including water, sanitation, health, food, and energy infrastructure.

As an institution that deploys approximately $10 billion annually in development financing, with the majority going to government projects, the African Development Bank Group brings crucial insight into regional financial flows and development challenges, Adesina said.

Corruption and financial crime are among the biggest obstacles to economic and social development in Africa and around the world

“This partnership demonstrates our commitment to protecting development resources and ensuring they reach their intended beneficiaries,” said Adesina. “As the world’s most transparent financial institution for two consecutive editions (https://apo-opa.co/41o3TVt) [according to Publish What You Fund’s assessment of sovereign portfolios], we maintain zero tolerance for corruption and terrorism financing. By joining forces with Interpol, we are strengthening our capacity to help African countries build robust systems against money laundering and financial crime.”

Rapid advancements in digital technology have also led to an increase in internet-enabled financial crimes. According to Interpol’s 2024 Global Financial Fraud Assessment, business email compromise, romance baiting, phishing, and other online frauds pose growing threats to Africa’s digitalized economy.

Secretary General Urquiza, who was elected to his position in November 2024, said, “Corruption and financial crime are among the biggest obstacles to economic and social development in Africa and around the world. The evolving nature of financial crime, particularly in the digital environment, requires strong partnerships between law enforcement and financial institutions. Interpol’s closer relationship with the African Development Bank Group will help law enforcement agencies and financial institutions across Africa tackle increasingly sophisticated financial crime threats.”

Adesina said the Bank will continue to tackle these challenges by:

  • Building capacity and supporting African countries in strengthening transparent and accountable governance and strong institutions capable of driving inclusive and sustainable growth and resilient economies.
  • Strengthening Know Your Customer and Due Diligence systems to prevent and to fight fraud and corruption.
  • Ensure that the Bank’s resources are used for their intended purposes in a transparent and accountable manner, a practice that has led to the Bank being recognized for two consecutive editions as the most transparent multilateral development bank in the world by Publish What You Fund.

The high-level Interpol delegation that accompanied Secretary General Urquiza included Mr. Silvino Schlickmann, Director of Governance and Ms. Paule Ouedraogo, Head of Interpol’s Regional Bureau.

The African Development Bank Group was represented by members of President Adesina’s senior management team including the director of the Office of Integrity and Anti-Corruption, Ms. Paula da Costa.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).

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World-leading Crypto Event Launches APAC’s Largest Debut with Consensus Hong Kong 2025

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Blockchain

Over 350 side events transformed mega digital assets event to mega festivities
HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 21 February 2025 – Regarded as the “Super Bowl of Blockchain” and “the World Cup of Web3”, Consensus, the most influential and longest-running event of the crypto world, picked Hong Kong as a destination to expand beyond North America, with a record-setting debut of nearly 10,000 from over 100 countries and regions converging at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from 18-20 February.

Phoebe Shing, Director, Business Development Team Lead, MICE • MICE-Business Development of the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB), said, “The tremendous success of Consensus’s Hong Kong debut marked the city as one of the most conducive destinations to expand the global footprint of proven events. More than a world’s meeting place, Hong Kong is also a super-connector in the world of finance, innovation and technology (I&T) and global cultures. This mega crypto event also puts Hong Kong on the forefront of accelerating the region’s advancement, while generating high-yield tourism spending and business activities to fuel Hong Kong’s economy.”

A convergence of who’s who in the world of blockchain, digital assets and web3

Asia’s top financial policymakers, crypto thought-leaders and investors shared the main stage with Mainland and world pioneers in blockchain, digital assets and web3 fields, defining what’s next and mapping the way forward for greater impact. The cast of stellar speakers notably included Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume; Adam Back, CEO and co-founder of Blockstream, a global leader in Bitcoin and blockchain technologies; Yat Siu, Co-Founder & Chairman Animoca Brands, a global leader in blockchain and gaming; Hong Fang, President of OKX, a leading Web3 technology company and leading crypto exchange, and many more.

Sara Stratoberdha, CEO of CoinDesk said, “Consensus has been running for over 10 years and is one of the longest-running and comprehensive digital assets events in the world. Hong Kong, a Fintech hub in Asia serves as a global center for crypto and web3 technologies, with favourable policies and a large pool of talent for blockchain, digital assets and web3 to thrive. We are thrilled to see that over 75% of attendees are coming from outside Hong Kong. A truly international event! The city has proven the ideal choice for expanding Consensus beyond North America.”

A strong line-up of over 350 side events, delivering huge commercial value

Consensus Hong Kong 2025 was embellished with more than 350 side events, giving the energetic global crypto community diverse opportunities to showcase their expertise, create and renew partnerships and party to the heart’s content.

Michael Lau, Chairman of Consensus Hong Kong, added, “The scale of the inaugural Hong Kong event has surpassed our expectations, with nearly 10,000 attendees and what truly surprised us is that the community and industry were eager to participate and the fact that we ended up hosting over 350 side events is a strong testament to Hong Kong as a leading global FinTech hub where we have a vibrant ecosystem, entrepreneurial spirits, innovative cultures that nowhere else can replicate. I am also appreciative of the support from the HKTB in securing the event for the city I call home.”

Transforming business events into mega festivals

Consensus Hong Kong also spectacularly transformed a leading business event into a mega festival, kicking off with its Opening Party – Rooftop Revelry, held at Cloud 39, the ultra-luxury rooftop ballroom of iconic landmark in Central The Henderson that set the tone for the event’s sophisticated networking occasions. Action continued all the way to its long-established tradition of Music Festival and Crypto Fight Night, extending to Hong Kong’s unique horse-racing and night party at Lan Kwai Fong. The conference concluded with a bang with the Consensus Closing Party in Lan Kwai Fong, where participants were treated to an open bar, live music and fun networking.

Brad Spies, Vice President of Consensus, said, “Hong Kong has a long legacy of finance, banking and some of the deepest capital markets in the world; but it’s also such a vibrant and diverse city with the best restaurants, fantastic venues and unique experiences. The city simply fulfilled the promises of delivering the best of business and fun. Hong Kong is such a world-class city for people to come and transform business events into mega festivals.”

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Saudi Arabia Expands Energy Ties with Africa: A Look at Key Investments, Partnerships

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Following Saudi Arabia’s latest energy efficiency cooperation agreement with Egypt, the African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies 2025 conference will provide a vital platform to accelerate partnerships and secure new deals between Saudi Arabia and African countries

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, February 21, 2025/APO Group/ –Earlier this week, Egypt’s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawi and Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud signed an agreement to develop an executive plan for energy efficiency cooperation, strengthening bilateral ties in the energy sector and fostering sustainable development. This follows another significant development in September, in which Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly secured a $5 billion pledge from Saudi Arabia’s PIF, representing the “first phase” of a larger investment strategy.

As a leading global energy giant, Saudi Arabia has been actively investing in Africa’s energy sector, aiming to expand its energy reserves, advance energy diplomacy and compete with other global superpowers. This strategic push not only strengthens Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region, but also paves the way for deeper economic and political ties with African nations.

To date, the lion’s share of investment in Africa’s energy sector has focused on clean energy advancements. With total project costs reaching $7 billion across the continent, Saudi developer ACWA Power stands as the leading private-sector investor in African renewable energy. In October 2024, the company announced that its Redstone solar plant in South Africa was set to achieve its full 100 MW capacity, while its Kom Ombo solar PV plant in Egypt successfully reached its full capacity of 200 MW. ACWA Power is also leading Project DAO, South Africa’s largest hybrid renewable power plant, with an $800 million investment. The project is expected to come online by 2026 and aligns with the Kingdom’s broader Vision 2030 goals.

In addition to renewable energy, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its investments to secure critical minerals for clean energy technologies. In October, Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals, a joint venture between Ma’aden and the Public Investment Fund (PIF), entered advanced talks to acquire a minority stake in First Quantum Minerals’ Zambian copper and nickel assets. The potential investment, valued between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, underscores Saudi Arabia’s strategy to secure critical minerals that are vital for the global clean energy transition.

Turning to broader regional commitments, Saudi Arabia’s financial support for Africa’s energy infrastructure has grown. In October, the Kingdom announced a major funding initiative, pledging at least $41 billion for sub-Saharan African nations. This includes $1 billion for development, $5 billion for startups, $10 billion in financing from the Saudi Export-Import Bank and $25 billion in private sector investments over the next decade.

Meanwhile, the Saudi Ministry of Energy has established the “Empowering Africa” initiative as part of its broader commitment to supporting sustainable development across the continent. In collaboration with the Ministries of Communications and Information Technology and Health, the initiative aims to deliver clean energy, connectivity, e-health and e-learning solutions to enhance lives and promote long-term growth in Africa. Building upon the Clean Fuel Solutions for Cooking Program, it focuses on providing cleaner cooking solutions to vulnerable populations, aiming to reduce reliance on traditional biomass fuels and improve health outcomes for millions of households. Minister bin Salman Al Saud has emphasized energy as a fundamental human right and is spearheading efforts to improve access to clean cooking technologies across the continent.

Additionally, state-owned petroleum company Saudi Aramco is strengthening its partnerships with African nations to support energy investments and mobilization. These collaborations are expected to drive infrastructure development, enhance oil and gas production capacity and facilitate knowledge transfer between Saudi and African energy stakeholders, while aligning with broader energy security and sustainability goals.

In the multilateral arena, the African Energy Chamber is working with Saudi Arabia to support South Africa’s G20 energy investments and mobilization. This partnership is set to facilitate greater financing and policy coordination, ensuring Africa’s energy priorities are well-represented in global energy discussions. The upcoming African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies conference in Cape Town serves as a key platform to facilitate and support these investments, bringing together Saudi stakeholders, African governments and global energy leaders to advance new projects, strengthen partnerships and accelerate the continent’s energy transition. These collaborations are essential in addressing energy challenges, driving economic growth and fostering long-term sustainability. As Saudi investments expand – alongside those of other G20 nations – their impact on Africa’s energy landscape will only deepen.

AEW: Invest in African Energies is the platform of choice for project operators, financiers, technology providers and government, and has emerged as the official place to sign deals in African energy. Visit www.AECWeek.com for more information about this exciting event. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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