WARC releases The Future of Measurement 2026, exploring emerging trends in media and creative measurement

7 May 2026 – As marketing measurement continues to evolve, WARC, the global authority on marketing effectiveness, has today released The Future of Measurement 2026, a report that explores the latest emerging trends in media and creative measurement. It focuses on three key areas: the shift to outcomes measurement; how AI is moving measurement upstream; and the rise of creative intelligence.

Paul Stringer, Managing Editor Research and Insights, WARC, says: “Marketing measurement is no longer just about understanding what happened, but enabling better decisions about what to do next. Traditional approaches – based on attribution, proxy metrics, and post-hoc reporting – are becoming less relevant. Rapid advances in AI are enabling a more dynamic, continuous optimisation of both media and creative. However, the foundational challenges of transparency, governance, and data quality need to be addressed.

“This report explores the key trends shaping this new era of marketing measurement highlighting the fundamental questions and decisions that marketers need to act on.”

Key trends set to shape the measurement landscape over the next 12 months are:

Outcomes measurement gathers pace

Media is increasingly bought against outcomes, driven by greater access to data, digital platforms, and ROI pressures. But the ability to measure and optimise against them is developing unevenly across the ecosystem.

Digital platforms are embedding real-time, outcome-based optimisation directly into their advertising systems, while legacy media are still evolving from an audience-based measurement towards proving their impact using experiments and advanced modelling techniques. The result is a two-speed measurement landscape converging on the same goal: incremental growth.

With no single system providing a complete picture, and a lack of trust and transparency in data and attribution, particularly within digital platforms, marketers are advised to make independent validations and take a cross-platform approach that combine multiple data sources and insights to support better marketing investment decisions.

AI moves measurement upstream

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is primarily being used in measurement to automate data collection, cleaning and normalisation before human interpretation. It can also significantly increase the frequency of testing and modelling for advertisers.

AI promises to move marketing measurement upstream, from a reporting output into ‘decision system’ that supports more dynamic planning and optimisation.

Marketers are rightfully excited about its potential. However, without rigorous, independent validation, AI-driven measurement risks becoming a black box for budget allocation, producing outputs that may appear credible but are not transparent or reliably grounded in true causal signals.

The rise of creative intelligence

Creative quality is a key driver of advertising effectiveness, yet it remains undervalued and undermeasured by marketers making it harder to justify investment. This is changing thanks to advances in AI and machine learning.

Marketers are building creative intelligence capabilities, an integrated system that allows them to measure and optimise creative at scale. This enables them to forecast asset performance ahead of launch, continuously optimise creative assets in real time for engagement and effectiveness, and measure the true impact of creative on commercial outcomes.

However, creative intelligence faces several barriers to adoption, such as poor data quality and a lack of resources. It also demands a closer integration across people, processes and technology – particularly creative and media.

Marketers are advised to unify disciplines and workflows so creative and media work as one operating system. Investing in platforms that support end-to-end creative activation, optimisation, and measurement will be essential. Piloting is expected to begin with social channels, where creative data is easily accessible and closely linked to performance.

The Future of Measurement 2026 report is available to WARC subscribers. A WARC podcast will be available from 12 May.

The insights for The Future of Measurement report are based on a combination of exclusive data from WARC and external research studies and reports. It is part of WARC Strategy’s Evolution of Marketing, series of in-depth forward-looking reports on the marketing discipline through evidence-based insights and emerging trends, technologies, and other drivers of change.

• Google Search surges past expectations with ad growth 5.4 percentage points above forecast
• Meta overperformed with ad revenue of $55.0bn against a projected $54.1bn – 2.3pp ahead of WARC’s forecast
• Amazon’s advertising services revenue of $17.2bn was in line with first quarter expectations
• YouTube’s $72m ad revenue shortfall reveals engagement-to-revenue conversion gap

WARC releases latest Earnings Debrief comparing Big Tech’s ad revenue performance against WARC Media’s quarterly global ad spend forecast data

01 May 2026 – The first quarter of 2026 delivered a useful reminder that not all online advertising growth is created equal. Meta outpaced WARC Media’s forecast, while Amazon held steady, and YouTube continued to struggle even as Alphabet’s wider advertising machine powered ahead.

This is according to analysis by WARC Media in its latest Earning Debrief, an advertising revenue performance analysis of Big Tech compared against WARC Media’s quarterly global ad spend forecast data, to provide a current round-up of their ad spend.

Benchmarking against WARC Media’s ad spend projections – derived from a proprietary neural network of over two million data points – Meta’s reported growth beat expectations by 2.3 percentage points (pp) during the opening quarter of 2026. Google Search outperformed by 5.4pp, and Amazon’s ad business came in broadly level (-0.4pp). YouTube, however, once again fell short of projections (-1.9pp), while Google’s Display Network recorded a sharper-than-expected decline (-1.6pp).

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC, said “With this earnings cycle closely tracking our forecasts, WARC’s outlook for the year remains broadly unchanged for the major online platforms. The next phase of growth is likely to favour those that can turn AI from a fashionable noun into a measurable commercial advantage. As ever in advertising, rhetoric is plentiful; revenue is indelible.”

Meta defies gravity

Meta was an overperformer this quarter, with ad revenue of $55.0bn against a forecast of $54.1bn – 2.3pp ahead of WARC’s benchmark. Better targeting, more automated buying and faster optimisation appear to be helping Meta convert its AI infrastructure into measurable performance, rather than merely an expensive slide in an investor deck.

Management commentary reinforces this interpretation. CFO Susan Li reported that ranking improvements on Instagram drove a 10% lift in time spent with Reels in Q1, while Mark Zuckerberg pointed to strong trends across Meta’s apps and all-time high engagement around video content.

The results suggest Meta is increasingly effective at capturing user attention, selling it, monetising it, and commanding premium rates in the process.

Amazon’s full-funnel evolution

Amazon’s advertising services revenue of $17.2bn was effectively in line with first quarter expectations. The world’s largest advertiser is working to be “the best place for brands of all sizes to grow their businesses” and emphasised its full-funnel credentials during its earnings call.

Beyond the messaging, Amazon’s advertising business continues to benefit from the attibutes marketers most value: purchase intent, closed-loop measurement and inventory that sits tantilisingly close to the transaction.

The direction of travel, therefore, remains favourable for Amazon. Retail media continues to gain market share by offering advertisers the alluring prospect of linking spend to sales with minimal attribution complexity, while streaming inventory and AI-assisted creative tools broaden Amazon’s reach beyond the lower funnel. This bodes well for future earnings cycles.

Alphabet’s mixed quarter

Google was the standout performer during the quarter, with ad revenue up 19.1% to $60.4bn, a marked 5.4pp above the benchmark of +13.7%. Clearly traditional paid search remains resilient, and Alphabet is arguing with some confidence that AI is improving engagement rather than cannibalising it.

Indeed, CEO Sundar Pichai heralded that AI is “illuminating every aspect of the business” and that products such as AI Overviews and AI Mode are now bringing users back to search more often. While progress is evident, the quarter revealed uneven performance across Alphabet’s advertising portfolio, with AI-driven gains not distributed equally among all business units.

YouTube’s reported ad revenue of approximately $9.98bn came in around $72m below the forecast value of $10.05bn, suggesting that strong engagement is still not converting into revenue quite as elegantly as executives would prefer. Short-form video continues to attract attention at scale, but monetisation still appears to lag the consumption curve: this is now the second consecutive quarter in which YouTube has fallen short of WARC’s forecast expectations, though the gap was far wider last quarter.

Google’s Display Network continues to decline in step with a moribund open web. Here, ad revenue dipped 3.9% compared to a forecast fall of 2.3% – this suggests Alphabet’s AI ambitions may be creating trade-offs in certain areas potentially at the expense of others.

Final word

Given the combined scale of these three players – accounting for 58% of all ad investment globally excluding China – they provide a useful yardstick for the industry at large.

The pace of growth at Amazon by far exceeds the WARC Media forecast for Q1 2026 ad spend on retail media globally (+12.3%); ditto Meta in relation to WARC’s benchmark for social media in the quarter (+20.3%). And that without looking at forecasts for slower-growth channels like total TV (+1.2%), or the market as a whole (+11.1%).

Taken together, the quarter suggests that advertisers are continuing to reward platforms that combine scale, first-party data and increasingly competent automation.

Meta is showing what happens when AI improves both engagement and monetisation simultaneously, Amazon is extending retail media into something closer to a full-spectrum ad business, and Alphabet is proving that search remains formidable even as video and display raise less cheerful questions.