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South Africa’s Cheaper Petrol Masks a Looming Gas Gap – and a Critical Investment Opportunity

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African Energy Chamber

A stronger rand and softer global fuel prices have pushed South African petrol to a four-year low – but without domestic gas development and LNG infrastructure, the country remains exposed to imports, currency swings and a fast-approaching supply shortfall

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, February 10, 2026/APO Group/ –South Africans are once again seeing relief at the pump, with the latest fuel price cuts delivering the cheapest petrol in roughly four years. The reductions – around 65 cents per liter for petrol and more than 50 cents for diesel – continue a downward trend that began earlier in 2026, when falling crude prices and currency strength combined to lower pump prices nationwide.

While the immediate benefits are tangible – cheaper transport, easing inflationary pressure and support for businesses – the underlying drivers reveal a more fragile reality. South Africa’s fuel costs remain shaped primarily by global oil markets and exchange-rate movements rather than domestic energy resilience.

Currency dynamics are particularly influential. The rand strengthened sharply through 2025, gaining nearly 13% against the U.S. dollar – its best annual performance in more than a decade – supported by improved fiscal sentiment and rising commodity prices. This momentum has continued into 2026 with periodic surges in precious-metal prices and global risk appetite. These shifts can lower refined-fuel import costs, but they also highlight South Africa’s continued dependence on external forces.

Structural weaknesses across the country’s fuel supply chain reinforce this reliance. Refining capacity has declined significantly, leaving only a handful of operational crude refineries and forcing South Africa to import roughly three-quarters of its liquid fuel needs. Strategic reserves remain limited to less than a month of supply. In this context, price relief at the pump reflects favorable global conditions rather than meaningful progress toward energy self-sufficiency.

Natural gas – affordable, reliable and abundant across Africa – can transform economies by powering industry, creating jobs and delivering the energy security our people deserve

The longer-term risk becomes clearer when viewed alongside South Africa’s evolving gas outlook. Without new domestic production or import capacity, South Africa is projected to face a ‘gas cliff’ as early as 2026. Existing Mozambican pipeline gas is depleting, while interim extensions from Sasol serve only as a temporary bridge to future LNG imports. Without new domestic production, import terminals or pipeline expansion, the country could confront tightening supply just as demand for flexible, lower-carbon power grows.

“Natural gas – affordable, reliable and abundant across Africa – can transform economies by powering industry, creating jobs and delivering the energy security our people deserve,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “But this transformation requires urgent investment in domestic production, LNG infrastructure and regional partnerships. South Africa has the resources and the market demand; what matters now is turning opportunity into action.”

Recognizing this urgency, the government is fast-tracking LNG import infrastructure, including a floating storage and regasification unit in Mozambique expected by mid-2026 and a planned LNG terminal at Richards Bay targeted for 2027, alongside efforts to unlock offshore gas in the Orange Basin. Today, roughly 90% of South Africa’s natural gas is still imported via a single pipeline from Mozambique – an exposure that underscores the need for diversification and domestic development.

The regional context reinforces the opportunity. Major LNG projects such as Mozambique’s $20 billion development – now moving forward again with production targeted before the end of the decade – signal growing momentum for African gas as a pillar of energy security and industrial growth. For South Africa, connecting to this wave through infrastructure, investment and regulatory clarity could reduce currency risk, stabilize fuel costs and support a more resilient transition pathway.

African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town is expected to spotlight precisely this: energy security, infrastructure investment and pragmatic transition pathways that balance hydrocarbons with emerging low-carbon systems. The event serves as a continental platform for LNG financing, infrastructure partnerships and upstream gas development capable of closing supply gaps and accelerating practical energy transitions.

Fuel price volatility now exposes South Africa’s structural energy weaknesses, underscoring why short-term relief cannot substitute for long-term strategy. Cheaper petrol may ease pressure today, but without decisive progress on domestic gas production and LNG infrastructure, the country risks repeating the same cycle – relief when currencies strengthen, strain when they weaken and continued vulnerability in between.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Business

Namibia’s Orange Basin Moves Toward First Oil at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026

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African Energy Chamber

The “Invest in Namibia: Transforming Discoveries into Production” session will examine how Namibia can turn its offshore oil boom into a broader industrial opportunity through local suppliers, skills development, technology transfer and domestic investment

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, August 27, 2026/APO Group/ –After a series of major offshore discoveries transformed Namibia into one of the world’s most closely watched exploration frontiers, attention is shifting from proving resources to building the infrastructure, partnerships and industrial capabilities needed to bring them into production. At African Energy Week (AEW) 2026, the session “Invest in Namibia: Transforming Discoveries into Production. Orange Basin’s Path to First Oil” will examine how the country can capture value beyond the development of individual oil fields and use the emerging petroleum sector as a catalyst for wider economic growth.





 

TotalEnergies’ Venus discovery is technically ready to move toward a Final Investment Decision, with negotiations on fiscal terms still underway. The project’s development concept targets around 150,000 barrels per day at peak production, with first oil potentially around 2030. FEED has been completed and major contractors selected, bringing Namibia’s first potential deepwater oil development closer to execution.

The real measure of Namibia’s oil opportunity will not simply be how many barrels it produces, but how much economic value those barrels create at home

Meanwhile, the Orange Basin continues to attract major international players. TotalEnergies and Galp strengthened their positions across the Venus and Mopane discoveries in 2025, with TotalEnergies becoming operator of Mopane and Galp taking a participating interest in Venus. In August 2026, Equinor agreed to acquire a 17.4% stake in Chevron’s PEL 90, marking its first upstream entry into a new country since 2017. The block is expected to see another exploration well before the end of the year.

The scale of investment now being contemplated makes the question of local economic participation increasingly urgent. Namibia’s draft Local Content Policy identifies the development of national capabilities, employment, local procurement and stronger domestic value chains as central to ensuring that petroleum resources generate benefits beyond government revenues. The government has also highlighted technical training and partnerships with universities and industry as priorities for preparing Namibians for the emerging oil and gas sector.

For Namibia, this means moving beyond an export-led model in which capital, equipment and specialist expertise flow in and crude flows out. Developing local suppliers, financing Namibian businesses, building research and training hubs and creating opportunities for joint ventures could help establish capabilities that extend well beyond the life of individual oil projects. The opportunity spans engineering and fabrication, logistics, marine services, environmental management, digital technologies and other areas of the petroleum supply chain.

“The real measure of Namibia’s oil opportunity will not simply be how many barrels it produces, but how much economic value those barrels create at home,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Namibia has a chance to build a competitive African energy industry around its discoveries – one that creates jobs, develops local companies, transfers technology and gives Namibians a meaningful stake in the country’s energy future.”

The session will look beyond first oil itself to the ecosystem required to sustain production and translate upstream investment into long-term industrial development. With Venus, Mopane and further Orange Basin exploration moving toward development, Namibia has an opportunity to establish the commercial partnerships, financing structures and technical capabilities needed to ensure its petroleum boom becomes an economy-wide growth story.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.




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South Africa’s Energy Market is Changing and Businesses Need a New Strategy

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Energy

Rising electricity costs, market reform, wheeling and battery storage are putting energy decisions at the centre of industrial competitiveness

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, August 31, 2026/APO Group/ –South Africa’s energy landscape is entering a new phase. While the country moves towards a more competitive electricity market, commercial and industrial businesses continue to face rising electricity costs, pressure to decarbonise and the need for greater operational resilience.
 




 

With Eskom’s 2026/27 tariff increase and continued reforms to the electricity market, businesses are increasingly looking beyond traditional electricity supply to wheeling, renewable PPAs, onsite generation, battery storage, energy efficiency and demand management.

The key question is no longer simply “How do we keep the lights on?” but “How do we secure reliable power while controlling costs and remaining competitive?”

That question will take centre stage at the C&I Energy + Storage Summit, taking place 28–29 October 2026 at The Maslow Hotel, Sandton, Johannesburg.

From energy security to business competitiveness

Under the theme “Business continuity through power security,” the summit will bring together commercial and industrial energy users, project developers, investors, financiers, utilities and policymakers to address the practical challenges shaping South Africa’s energy future.

The programme will examine the threats and opportunities facing South Africa’s industrial sector, including rising energy costs, electricity-market reform, decarbonisation and infrastructure constraints.

A key focus will be the growing commercial case for battery storage. The “Energy Storage Beyond Backup Power” session will explore how businesses can use storage for energy arbitrage, peak shaving, demand management, renewable-energy firming and improved power quality – moving batteries from a backup solution to a potential strategic investment.

The energy transition is about more than adding megawatts; it is about building reliable, responsible energy systems that strengthen competitiveness and resilience

Practical solutions for South African businesses

The summit will also look beyond new generation, exploring how businesses can reduce energy costs through energy efficiency, operational optimisation, demand response and digital energy management.

For heavy industry, a dedicated session will examine how mining, manufacturing, cement and metals companies can integrate solar, wind and hybrid energy systems while maintaining reliable operations and competitiveness.

The programme will also address one of the biggest challenges facing new energy projects: infrastructure and collaboration between businesses, municipalities and utilities. Discussions will cover shared infrastructure, wheeling agreements, network constraints and how businesses can engage more effectively with public-sector stakeholders.

The conversation has moved beyond keeping the lights on

South Africa’s energy transition is becoming a business strategy. With electricity-market reform, renewable procurement, wheeling and storage creating new opportunities, businesses need to understand not only where their power will come from, but how they can use energy strategically to reduce costs, manage risk and remain competitive.

“The energy transition is about more than adding megawatts; it is about building reliable, responsible energy systems that strengthen competitiveness and resilience,” said Grace Olukune, Head of Engineering at Eskom Green. “Businesses need solutions that combine renewable power, storage, efficiency and partnerships, while ensuring today’s infrastructure does not become tomorrow’s environmental challenge.”

The C&I Energy + Storage Summit 2026 is supported by a growing group of partners committed to advancing South Africa’s energy transition, including NOA Group as Gold Sponsor, Huawei as EIUG Gold Sponsor, Lyra Energy as EIUG Silver Sponsor, and Webber Wentzel, in alliance with Linklaters, as Bronze Water Security Africa Sponsor.

The C&I Energy + Storage Summit 2026 will bring those decision-makers together in Johannesburg to tackle these questions and explore what comes next for South Africa’s commercial and industrial energy market.

28–29 October 2026 | The Maslow Hotel, Sandton, Johannesburg

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of VUKA Group.

 




 

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S&P Global Energy to Highlight Critical Minerals and Energy Transition Insights at African Mining Week 2026

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Etu Energias

Delegation of senior experts to address market forces, exploration trends, and investment opportunities in Cape Town, Oct. 14-16

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, August 31, 2026/APO Group/ –A delegation of senior executives and global thought leaders from S&P Global Energy is to participate in the African Mining Week (AMW), taking place October 14-16 in Cape Town, to share proprietary data and insights shaping the future of Africa’s mining sector.
 




 
 

Aligning with AMW’s 2026 theme, “Mining the Future: Critical Resources, Sustainability and Community Development,” the delegation’s participation coincides with a surge of investment-led growth in Africa. Holding approximately 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, the continent has emerged as a strategic destination for long-term capital, driven by skyrocketing global demand for critical minerals in clean energy technologies, defense applications, and advanced manufacturing.

As the leading independent provider of information, analytics, and benchmark prices for the energy and commodities markets, S&P Global Energy will help shape key discussions on the market forces and exploration trends impacting this vital sector.

The S&P Global Energy executive delegation at AMW 2026 includes:

  • Atul Arya, SVP and Chief Energy Strategist
  • Rahul Kapoor, VP, Head of Shipping & Metals
  • Vera Blei, Head of Platts
  • Fernando Araya Burchard, Critical Minerals Lead
  • William Mason, Associate Director, Mining Economics & Emissions
  • Malick Diallo, Commercial Lead, EMEA & CIS

Key S&P Global Presentations and Insights: During the event, S&P Global experts will provide proprietary data on the commercial realities shaping mineral development through their panel moderations and presentations. For example:

Global Mineral Race Positions African Producers as Active “Price Setters”

 

  • Dr. Atul Arya will moderate the Ministerial Panel Regional Policy Alignment: Mining Code Reforms to Unlock Value.”  Rahul Kapoor will guide the conversations of panels, “The New Resource Contract: Balancing Sovereignty, Nationalism, and Investor Certainty” and “Unlocking Refining Investment.” 
  • Transition Minerals and Capital Allocation: Fernando Araya Burchard will explore new opportunities across exploration, production, and mineral beneficiation. He will contextualize these trends against staggering demand forecasts—including a projected 350% increase in global lithium demand and a 130% rise in graphite demand by 2040—and discuss how African governments are leveraging international partnerships to expand capacity and modernize infrastructure.
  • Bucking the Trend: Africa’s Decade-High Exploration Surge and the Rising Cost of Production: Despite possessing some of the world’s largest reserves of copper, cobalt, platinum group metals, lithium, and rare earth elements, Africa attracts less than 10% of global exploration expenditure. William Mason will unpack this untapped geological potential and the commercial realities of production costs.
  • S&P Global Energy will host c-suite roundtable on critical issues facing the mining industry in Africa.

ADVANCING TRANSPARENCY IN CRITICAL MINERALS 

Africa’s central role in the energy transition benefits from transparent pricing and supply chain visibility. Aiding the market’s need for such transparency, S&P Global Energy’s Platts recently launched a set of spot market price assessments for rare earth elements: first-of-their-kind, for mine-to-industry “alternative supply chains (https://apo-opa.co/3T4yhCT),” reflecting  prices of refined materials originating from Angola, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, and other nations and China rare earth elements (https://apo-opa.co/45ZaGq9), on a free-on-board basis.

Additionally, S&P Global recently published independent reports on Tungsten (https://apo-opa.co/4iD8j3I), Antimony (https://apo-opa.co/4y62qAv), NdPr (https://apo-opa.co/4zI0Bvv), Gallium (https://apo-opa.co/4gHzlEI), and Germanium (https://apo-opa.co/46hrusJ). These reports aim to advance market transparency and foster dialogue among producers, processors, consumers, investors, and policymakers regarding supply chains that are essential to defense, semiconductors, aviation, and other strategic global industries.

Dr. Arya spoke with African Mining Week highlighting the importance of Africa’s mineral wealth and opportunities for African nations and companies: “Global Mineral Race Positions African Producers as Active “Price Setters”, Says S&P Global Energy (https://apo-opa.co/4y8xcZz).

Organized by Energy Capital & Power, African Mining Week runs alongside the African Energy Week: Invest in African Energies 2026 conference (October 12-16 in Cape Town), where S&P Global Energy is an Emerald Sponsor and will also feature an executive delegation.

For more information on African Mining Week, visit: https://African-MiningWeek.com/

For more information on S&P Global Energy, visit: https://www.SPGlobal.com/energy/en.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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