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Global advertising spend to surpass $1trn for first time this year

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WARC
Projected 10.7% rise in global spend this year equivalent to an additional $104bn in advertiser investment, the second-highest absolute rise on record

One in five dollars (22.1%) spent on ads outside of China is paid to Google; DOJ ruling now threatens $32.9bn of potential growth over the next two years

Advertisers are due to spend $299bn this holiday season, with online platforms such as Amazon ($16.9bn in holiday-season ad revenue) set to be the biggest beneficiaries

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 – November 2024 update
27 November 2024 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is on course to grow 10.7% this year to a total of $1.08trn – the strongest growth rate in six years and the largest absolute rise on record if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded. The new forecast, published today, represents a 0.2 percentage point (pp) upgrade on WARC’s last global forecast in August.  
 Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.6%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global advertising market worth $1.24trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014.WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide. New for this edition, WARC is leveraging a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points, spanning macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.While the headline growth rate is mostly being driven by online media, a good year for TV has also made a notable contribution. Linear TV spend is expected to end the year 1.9% higher, at $153.6bn, following two years of decline. TV has been boosted by political advertising – particularly in the US – during the fourth quarter and both the Paris Olympics and the Euro 2024 football tournament in the third. Linear TV now accounts for just 14.3% of global advertising spend, however, down from a peak of 41.3% in 2013.Building upon a solid performance for legacy media, pure play internet, which encompasses advertising revenue among online-only businesses such as Alphabet, Amazon and Meta, is poised to grow by 14.1% to a total of $741.4bn – over two thirds (68.8%) of all ad spend.Social media is the largest individual sector within pure play internet – and the largest advertising medium of all by extension – with a total of $252.7bn this year equivalent to 23.5% of the global ad market. Prospects for the social market have been revised upwards this year to +19.3%, owing mostly to stronger-than expected results for Facebook, Instagram and TikTok over the first nine months of the year.James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research says: “Our latest forecast anticipates $104bn in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 were discounted.“Whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, however, as 2025 presents a sliding doors moment due to heightened regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok – together a quarter of the ad market outside of China. This, alongside an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate, may spell uncertain times ahead for the businesses that rely on advertising trade.“By leveraging WARC’s proprietary neural network, which delivers timely and precise insights based on over two million datapoints, practitioners can navigate these dynamic conditions and plan ahead for a rapidly evolving advertising landscape.”Key themes outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 Q4 update are:GOOGLE’S 90% SHARE OF SEARCH MARKET IS A MONOPOLY, DOJ RULESOne in five dollars (22.1%) spent on advertising outside of China is paid to Google for its search services. Further, at an expected $197.7bn in 2024 (+13.0% year-on-year), Google alone accounts for 90.1% of all search advertising (excluding China). These commanding shares are similar in the US, leading the Department of Justice (DOJ) to rule last week that Google has an effective monopoly on the search market.The court believes that Google also uses its search dominance to inflate the cost per click (up by approximately 7.5% this year) and maintain superior targeting, effectively blocking competitors from offering viable alternatives.Outcomes from the ruling range from Google ceasing payments to handset manufactures and others for default preference – at a cost of approximately $30bn per annum – to the selling off of its Chrome business to a third party.One potential suitor – Bing – still struggles with adoption and advertiser investment despite Microsoft’s $100bn investment, accounting for just 5.9% of search spend outside of China. Bing’s ad revenues are expected to be up just 5.1% this year – compared to a rise of 11.9% for total search and 13.0% for Google – to a total of $12.9bn.Apple already makes $5.1bn from search ads, mostly via its app store, per Omdia Advertising Intelligence estimates, and could create its own search engine given its financial and distribution resources. The device manufacturer may hesitate to proceed, however, due to the high costs associated with maintaining a search business aside a general strategic misalignment. A leftfield entrant – perhaps Elon Musk’s X on the lookout for new revenue streams after losing $5.9bn in ad revenue since its 2022 takeover – may materialise, but on the whole natural successors to Google remain unclear.With the ongoing uncertainty around the practicalities of the DOJ ruling, and the probability that Google will appeal it vigorously in the coming months, WARC is maintaining its growth forecast of +9.0% next year and +7.0% in 2026 for the company while the situation develops, leaving a potential $231bn ad business and $32.9bn of growth in the balance over the next two years.HOLIDAYS ARE COMINGAdvertisers the world over are expected to spend $299.2bn during the final quarter of the year, well over half of which will be spent during the holiday season. This represents a 10.2% rise from the previous year, up marginally (+0.2pp) from our August forecast.The fourth quarter is crucial for retailers, typically accounting for over 30% of annual ad spend within the sector which represents the intense battle for consumer salience and share of wallet each year. Retailers will spend $45.6bn on advertising during Q4 2024, up 5.0% compared to last year. TV is set to attract 15.9% of this spend, at $6.8bn, with nearing a quarter (23.3%) of this – $1.6bn – spent on ads delivered via connected TVs (CTV) so as to leverage the additional targeting capabilities these devices can afford advertisers.Advertising on retail media platforms is also set to peak during the fourth quarter as brands vie to reach consumers close to the point of purchase. Globally, retail media spend is forecast to rise 16.4% in Q4 2024 to a total of $46.2bn – a new high. Amazon alone is expected to net $16.9bn from advertisers at this time, up 18.0% from the previous year.The technology and electronics sector is expected to spend most in online retail media environments during the fourth quarter, with an anticipated total of $7.2bn up 18.7% from last year. For context, this is over three times more than the sector spends on TV.It’s also a big time of year for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands, with the alcoholic drinks (+13.5% to $3.9bn), cosmetics (+13.8% to $5.2bn), food (+19.4% to $5.4bn) and soft drinks (+22.0% to $4.5bn) sectors all increasing retail media spend and allocating an increasing share of their ad budgets to online retail platforms this year.Overall, retail media ad spend is forecast to reach $154.8bn this year, with a further rise of 14.8% expected next year and 13.5% in 2026, by when the market would be worth $201.6bn.CANADA CALLS TIME ON TIKTOKThis month, the Canadian government ordered TikTok Technology Canada, Inc. to wind up its Canadian operations under the Investment Canada Act, citing national security concerns. This move forces TikTok to halt sales operations in Canada but does not block Canadians’ access to the app or its content creation capabilities. TikTok has vowed to challenge the order in court.There are few signs that advertisers are reining in their TikTok budgets; WARC believes TikTok’s ad billings grew by 27.1% to $17.8bn over the first nine months of 2024, even as the prospect of tighter regulation comes into sharper focus.Globally, TikTok’s audience is now almost at parity with Instagram, but users spend twice as long with TikTok. A ban is most likely to be to the benefit of Instagram, Snap and, to a lesser extent, YouTube thanks to its analogous Shorts format, mostly due to the migration of content creators.Brian Wieser of Madison & Wall estimates that some C$500m annually will be up for grabs if TikTok were to exit Canada. This scenario has not yet been factored into WARC’s forecasts pending the appeal process; indeed, WARC now expects TikTok to generate $24.6bn in advertising revenue (excl. China) this year, a rise of 25.9% from 2023 but equivalent to just 9.1% of all social advertising spend.A complimentary executive summary by WARC’s James McDonald, author of the report, is available to read here. WARC subscribers can read the article and access additional data here.

Energy

SBM Offshore Confirmed as Silver Sponsor for African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Amid Africa FPSO Expansion Push

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African Energy Chamber

SBM Offshore will participate as Silver Sponsor at African Energy Week 2026, where they are set to showcase FPSO expansion in Angola, Namibia and Guyana amid strong financials and a deepwater innovation strategy

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Multinational oil and gas services company SBM Offshore will participate at this year’s African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Conference and Exhibition as a Silver Sponsor, reinforcing the company’s long-term commitment to Africa’s expanding deepwater oil and gas industry. Their participation comes as SBM Offshore accelerates brownfield optimization projects in Angola while aggressively positioning itself for new frontier developments in Namibia’s Orange Basin.

 

SBM Offshore’s return to AEW, which takes place from October 12–16 in Cape Town, is expected to draw significant industry attention as operators, financiers and EPC contractors evaluate the next wave of floating production infrastructure across the Atlantic Basin. With more than 20 years of experience in Africa and over $31 billion in contract backlog globally, the company remains one of the world’s most influential FPSO suppliers.

The Sponsorship follows several major milestones announced during 2025 and 2026. On May 26, the American Bureau of Shipping approved SBM Offshore’s seawater intake riser technology developed alongside Shell. The system pumps cold seawater from depths of 700m to FPSO topsides, reducing onboard cooling energy demand and improving emissions performance for future African and South American projects.

The company’s financial position strengthened considerably following the $2.32 billion sale of FPSO One Guyana to ExxonMobil in February 2026. The transaction helped drive a 216% year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 directional revenue to $3.5 billion while reducing SBM Offshore’s net debt from $5.7 billion to $3.2 billion by March 21, 2026.

SBM Offshore continues to demonstrate the technical expertise, operational scale and long-term investment approach needed to advance Africa’s next generation of energy projects

In March 2026, ExxonMobil awarded SBM Offshore front-end engineering and design contracts for the Longtail development in Guyana. The proposed FPSO is expected to feature the world’s highest gas-handling capacity ever deployed on a floating production vessel, processing 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas and 250,000 barrels of condensate daily.

Across Africa, SBM Offshore continues expanding its offshore footprint. In Angola, the company signed multi-year extensions in December 2025 with Esso Exploration Angola for FPSO Mondo and FPSO Saxi Batuque in Block 15, extending operations through 2032. Brownfield upgrades and life-extension works commenced in early 2026 to support declining reservoir pressure management and maintain environmental compliance standards.

The company also finalized a share purchase agreement with Equatorial Guinea’s national oil company GEPetrol in December 2025, restructuring regional asset ownership and supporting localized operational transitions. The FPSO Aseng formally exited SBM Offshore’s lease-and-operate fleet during the same period as management responsibilities shifted toward Equatoguinean entities.

Namibia retains a central focus of SBM Offshore’s African growth strategy. The company is actively competing for TotalEnergies’ Venus FPSO contract in the Orange Basin, one of Africa’s largest recent offshore discoveries with estimated resources of roughly 2 billion barrels. SBM Offshore has expanded its Cape Town commercial engineering workforce while positioning its standardized technologies for upcoming South Atlantic developments.

“SBM Offshore’s participation at this year’s event reflects the growing momentum behind Africa’s deepwater industry and the critical role FPSO technology will play in unlocking new production. From Angola’s mature offshore hubs to Namibia’s frontier discoveries, SBM Offshore continues to demonstrate the technical expertise, operational scale and long-term investment approach needed to advance Africa’s next generation of energy projects,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.

Looking ahead, SBM Offshore aims to combine frontier expansion with lower-emission offshore production systems. Through partnerships with SLB and Cognite, the company is integrating industrial AI platforms to its global fleet while scaling standardized hull construction to accelerate project delivery timelines across Africa and Latin America.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa Joins African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 as South Africa Opens R400B Grid Expansion to Private Investment

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Kgosientsho Ramokgopa

South Africa has moved from rolling blackouts to a year of stable supply, and Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa now turns to the grid expansion and market reforms needed to keep the lights on and draw private capital

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity and Energy of the Republic of South Africa, has been confirmed as a featured speaker at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026, where he is expected to outline the next phase of the country’s power-sector recovery and the investment drive needed to expand the electricity grid.

 

Taking place October 12-16, AEW 2026 represents the largest energy gathering on the African continent, offering a strategic platform for dealmaking and partnerships. Minister Ramokgopa’s participation reflects the country’s ambitions to strengthen investment flows across the power and energy markets, supporting long-term generation resilience and improved transmission networks.

South Africa has moved from one of the worst phases of its electricity crisis to its most stable supply in years. The country recently passed a full year without load-shedding, and the grid is at its strongest in half a decade, with roughly 4,400 MW more generation on hand than a year earlier. The return of Kusile Power Station to its full output of about 4,800 MW helped anchor the turnaround.

South Africa’s recovery shows what disciplined execution can achieve, and opening the grid to private capital is the logical next step

With supply stabilized, Ramokgopa has reframed the current market challenge as being less about generation and more to do with transmission, offtakers and bottlenecks, pointing to more than 130 GW of generation projects that have yet to secure firm offtake agreements. That bottleneck sits at the center of the country’s largest infrastructure push. The Transmission Development Plan calls for 14,000 km of new power lines and 105 substations by 2030, at a cost of roughly R400 billion, to unlock an additional 22.5 GW of capacity.

Because neither Eskom nor the state can fund that build alone, the government has opened transmission to private investment for the first time through the Independent Transmission Projects (ITP) program. In December 2025, Ramokgopa named seven prequalified bidders for the first phase, all of them international-led consortia. The phase covers 1,164 km of high-voltage lines across seven corridors, with a combined value of about $1 billion. A request for proposals is expected in the second half of 2026.

“South Africa’s recovery shows what disciplined execution can achieve, and opening the grid to private capital is the logical next step,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “The real opportunity now is in transmission, and the investors who help build that network will open up generation that will change South Africa’s future for the better.”

Private appetite is already evident on the generation side. The latest round of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program drew 10.2 GW of bids against the 5 GW on offer. In the 2025/26 financial year, eight new independent power projects came online with a combined 800 MW, and another 1,610 MW is under construction.

Minister Ramokgopa is also expected to address the Integrated Resource Plan 2025, the government’s blueprint guiding new generation capacity, and the rollout of a competitive wholesale electricity market intended to open the sector beyond Eskom.

As AEW 2026 prepares to convene policymakers, investors and operators at the Cape Town International Convention Center this October, Minister Ramokgopa’s participation is the host nation’s signal that its power sector is open for investment.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) 2026 programme launched as Africa’s carbon markets move from readiness to delivery

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CMAS

Positioned as a pan-African marketplace, CMAS connects policy, project pipelines, capital and buyers in a structured environment focused on enabling real deal flow

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa is emerging as an exciting destination to develop carbon market projects with improved policy certainty and more and more projects becoming investment-ready. As global carbon markets transition from rule-setting to real transactions, with Article 6 mechanisms moving into implementation and compliance-driven demand such as CORSIA accelerating, attention is shifting towards where credible supply, policy certainty and investment-ready projects can be delivered at scale.

 

Against this backdrop, the Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) that is organised by VUKA Group has released its official 2026 programme, outlining how Africa’s carbon markets can move beyond frameworks into execution, investment and transactions. The summit will take place from 13–15 October 2026 in Kigali, Rwanda, hosted by the Ministry of Environment of Rwanda, with UNDP and the African Development Bank (AfDB) as host organisations, the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) as host partner, and AUDA-NEPAD as the strategic institutional partner.

Positioned as a pan-African marketplace, CMAS connects policy, project pipelines, capital and buyers in a structured environment focused on enabling real deal flow.

This year’s programme reflects a changing market dynamic, one where integrity, quality and transaction readiness are becoming decisive.

Carbon markets are entering a more selective and operational phase. The question is no longer whether Africa has a role to play, but whether the continent can bring forward credible projects, enabling frameworks and market infrastructure to transact at scale,” said Emmanuelle Nicholls, Project Lead. “CMAS 2026 is designed as a response to that moment – connecting the actors, pipelines and capital needed to move from ambition to execution.”

Africa’s carbon markets must be built on integrity, equity, and continental coordination so that carbon finance delivers real value

Within this evolving context, the summit places strong emphasis on the foundations required to scale markets responsibly. As Estherine Fotabong, Director at AUDA-NEPAD, notes, “Africa’s carbon markets must be built on integrity, equity, and continental coordination so that carbon finance delivers real value for communities, ecosystems, and sustainable development across the continent.”

A programme built for execution

The CMAS 2026 programme spans the full carbon market value chain from policy and Article 6 implementation to project development, finance and transactions. Key highlights include the keynote opening session on delivering projects, capital and transactions at scale, a high-level dialogue on trust and market readiness, ministerial and technical roundtables, and sessions focused on buyer demand, investor priorities and deal structuring.

 

A central feature is a curated pipeline of African carbon projects across nature-based solutions, regenerative agriculture, carbon removals, waste-to-value and blue carbon, presented through project showcases, case studies and investment-ready deal rooms.

The programme also includes solution labs and technical workshops addressing critical bottlenecks—including Article 6 and CORSIA implementation, early-stage finance, MRV systems and project bankability, alongside live demonstrations of digital carbon infrastructure, ensuring focus on practical market development and delivery.

CMAS 2026 is hosted in Rwanda, a country advancing carbon market frameworks under Article 6, and takes place at a pivotal moment as global markets increasingly prioritise integrity, quality and real delivery at scale.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of VUKA Group.

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