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New outlook shows Gulf Crisis still threatens $94bn of incremental ad investment worldwide over next 18 months

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Gulf Crisis
  • Global ad growth uprated to +11.5% this year – to $1.39trn – but ongoing volatility could remove as much as 3.2 percentage points (pp) – or $39.6bn – from growth in 2026
  • Automotive, food, and travel & transport sectors among most susceptible to high oil prices and a prolonged disruption to shipping in Strait of Hormuz
  • There is an uneven impact on brand- and performance-led media spend, with TV suffering sharp falls as social and search remain largely unaffected
  • Ad market growth is expected to ease to 8.2% next year – to a total of $1.50trn – but a prolonged Gulf crisis could remove a further $54.1bn from growth prospects in 2027

WARC Media Global Ad Spend Forecast Q2 2026 update: Implications of the Gulf energy crisis

11 June 2026 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that a prolonged conflict in the Gulf region could threaten $39.6bn of global advertising growth this year, and $93.7bn over the next 18 months.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, says: “As the Gulf Crisis stretches into its fourth month, global markets are now in damage limitation mode as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acts like a tax on consumers, lifting prices and squeezing real spending power.

“If the conflict drags on – or further intensifies – these risks shift toward stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive, and food acutely exposed to higher production costs and weaker demand. The net effect is a grueling squeeze on margins that could put as much as $94bn of anticipated ad market growth at risk over the coming 18 months.”

WARC Media’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment trends based on over two million data points. The projections account for three scenarios of increasing severity to model the potential impacts of the ongoing Gulf Crisis.

 

The fallout from the conflict is being felt differently across regions

WARC’s baseline scenario is for 11.5% ad market growth in 2026, but if the Crisis were to become more severe, the growth rate could fall to +8.3%
Southeast Asia (+6.9%) and Latin America (+12.8%) are on course for healthy growth this year, but are most exposed to an increase in severity
The Gulf ad market could fall into recession (-0.2%) this year, as would the French ad market (-1.0%), in the most severe scenario
The US (+9.5%) is well insulated and benefits from the World Cup and Midterms; even in a severe scenario the ad market would lose just $10bn in growthThe baseline projection is for global ad market growth of 11.5% to $1.39trn this year, an upgrade from the 10.6% rise predicted in March owing to a strong first half for online platforms. The supply-side pressures caused by the Gulf Crisis, however, are expected to be felt by consumers and brands alike from the second half of the year.

Data shows that Southeast Asia will be among the hardest hit by the conflict, due to vulnerabilities in energy imports and trade flows. WARC’s baseline projects +6.9% ad spend growth for the region to $24.8bn in 2026; a moderate scenario, however, pulls that to +6.3%, and a severe scenario delivers +3.6% – a 3.3pp swing from best to worst outcome.

​China’s exposure is also distinct: imported energy and shipping costs compress industrial margins and export competitiveness. A baseline ad spend growth forecast of +7.9% (to $223.1bn) for 2026 falls to +5.3% in the severe scenario (-2.6pp), equivalent to $5.3bn in lost growth for the Chinese ad market should the situation deteriorate.

While the US isn’t immune to pressures from the situation in the Gulf, its relative insulation shows ​a clear contrast to the pressures war in the Middle East is placing on other markets. Even under the severe scenario, ​US ad spend growth is +7.2% in 2026, down 2.3pp from a baseline of +9.5% (to $452.6bn) and equivalent to a shortfall of $9.8bn.​

Conversely, the Latin American ad market is on the precipice. Led by Brazil and Mexico, Latin America posts the strongest baseline ad spend growth of any region in the forecast: +12.8% to $27.8bn in 2026. The severe scenario clips that to just +3.4%; a 9.4pp downgrade and the largest single swing in the data.

The markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain – are already seeing weakened demand, particularly from global advertisers. Under the severe scenario, GCC ad spend tips into outright contraction at -0.2% in 2026, a swing of -11.9pp against the baseline expectation of +11.7% to $5.7bn.

Ad spend across the Eurozone, where major economies are already stagnating, is set to rise 5.6% to $109.0bn this year. This could, however, ease to just 1.8% growth if the severe scenario is realized. The UK (+6.3%), Germany (+6.7%) and France (+2.7%) are all expected to see ad market growth this year, but the severe scenario removes 3.1 percentage points on average, pushing France into recession should the worst case materialise.

Travel, automotive and food sectors among most susceptible to a prolonged disruption

Travel & Transport ad spend already forecast to decline (-3.5%) this year
Automotive ad spend is largely flat in Western Europe, though is still expected to be up globally (+6.7%) in 2026
Growth in the food sector remains steady this year (+10.3%), but the impacts of present supply chain disruption are expected to be felt more in 2027

Travel is the worst-hit major category and the only one already thought to be contracting at the global level, with ad spend forecast to be down -3.5% to $34.4bn in 2026. Airlines active in the Middle East are already reviewing budget allocations. The sector is expected to record a projected recovery of +13.0% in 2027, however.

The double squeeze of rising inputs on the manufacturer side and consumer credit sensitivity suppressing demand is clearly visible in the automotive sector. Germany – one of the world’s largest car manufacturers – is forecast to see automotive ad spend grow by just +1.9% in the 2026. If the Gulf Crisis were to become more severe, this would fall to a 4.2% contraction this year, a 6.0pp swing from a baseline that was already fragile.

While the food market looks steady – ad spend is projected to grow 10.3% to $99.8bn this year – the sector can be heavily impacted by a complex supply chain: fertiliser, grain, fuel, and packaging costs are rising before consumers feel it.

The full impacts on the food sector are expected to land in H2 2026 and into 2027, when the severe forecast scenario trails the baseline by 1.2pp, wider than the 2026 gap. Europe’s major markets are impacted significantly: UK food ad spend grows +4.9% in the baseline and contracts -0.2% in the severe scenario: a 5.0pp swing that tips the category negative.


There is an uneven impact on brand- and performance-led media spend

Linear TV’s decline likely to accelerate as the situation worsens, with advertisers favouring short-term, performance channels over brand-building
Social media growth remains strong, but cost pressures on small and medium-sized companies leave social platforms somewhat exposed
Paid search – including generative AI – remains stable in all scenarios

In the baseline scenario, the linear TV ad market is forecast to fall ​2.7% in 2026, and by the same margin again in 2027. TV’s total share of global ad investment – 12.7% in the baseline across linear and video on-demand combined – slips to 12.5% in the severe scenario. While the 2026 FIFA World Cup provides a cyclical boost in the baseline that partially offsets the decline. However, a severe scenario erodes that buffer.​

The headline numbers are robust for social media: 20.0% growth in the baseline forecast this year, falling back to 17.9% in the severe scenario ​(a 2.1pp gap). The severe scenario therefore costs social platforms $7.8bn, just 11% of incremental ad revenue this year. However, underneath these numbers may lie some vulnerability. Social’s advertiser base is heavily concentrated in SMEs. If smaller businesses are suffering because household spend is declining, then marketing budgets may be at risk. Paid search – including generative AI – provides the most stable picture. In the severe scenario, it still grows +11.0% in 2026 – only 3.3pp below a baseline of +14.3%.

Even under the most disruptive conditions modelled, search, social and retail media will retain two-thirds of global ad spend.​ The channels absorbing the losses are those already under pressure. Linear TV falls 7.3% this year in the severe scenario (compared to a 3.7% fall in the baseline forecast); publishing contracts ​8.5% (compared to a 0.8% baseline dip), and cinema drops 4.0% in the most severe case, versus a baseline forecast of 6.3% growth this year.

Cinema, alongside publishing, is the least resilient channel in the dataset. Cinema advertising is tied directly to leisure discretionary spending and theatrical attendance, both of which weaken sharply when consumer confidence falls and energy-linked transport costs rise.


WARC Media subscribers can read the full report available from Monday 15 June. A WARC podcast on the findings outlined in the report will be available from 18 June.

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Africa’s Business Heroes Unveils 2026 Top 100 Entrepreneurs Selected from Over 24,000 Applications Across Africa

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June 11, 2026

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Africa’s Business Heroes

Expanded cohort reflects the scale, diversity, maturity, and economic impact of African entrepreneurship

KIGALI, Rwanda, June 11, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa’s Business Heroes (ABH) (www.AfricaBusinessHeroes.org), the flagship philanthropic initiative of the Jack Ma Foundation and Alibaba Philanthropy, has unveiled its 2026 Top 100 entrepreneurs, selected from more than 24,000 applications from all 54 African countries.

Download Infographic: https://apo-opa.co/4v3n7w5

For the first time in ABH’s history, the competition has expanded its first round of finalists from a Top 50 to a Top 100 cohort, creating more visibility and opportunity for entrepreneurs across regions, sectors, and business models. The expansion reflects the growing depth, competitiveness, and commercial maturity of African entrepreneurship as ABH approaches its 10-year milestone.

The 2026 Top 100 represents 27 countries, with an average founder age of 38 and an average business age of 6.5 years. Half of the cohort are returning applicants, underscoring the continued value entrepreneurs see in the ABH platform and the strength of its pan-African community.

This year’s applications came from every region of the continent. Women represented the highest share of entries since the competition launched in 2019 and there was also increased participation from emerging startup hubs such Angola, Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya, Madagascar, and Mozambique. ABH is grateful to the hard-working Round 1 judges who selected the Top 100 from more than 24,000 applicants, with strong representation from key sectors like AI, agriculture, fintech, health, and climate.

A Snapshot of Africa’s Entrepreneurial Momentum

The 2026 Top 100 cohort offers a strong picture of the diversity, resilience, and economic contribution of African entrepreneurs. Collectively, the Top 100 businesses generated USD 170 million in 2025 revenue, employed 6,200 people, and served 10 million customers. These figures underscore the role entrepreneurs are playing not only in building commercially viable companies, but also in creating jobs, widening access to essential products and services, and advancing inclusive growth across Africa.

The 2026 cohort tells an important story: African entrepreneurship is becoming broader, deeper, and more commercially mature

Top 100: By the Numbers

  • Operating Countries Represented: 27
  • Average founder age: 38
  • Average years in business: 6.5
  • Gender representation: 33% women founders; 67% men founders
  • Francophone/French-language representation: 13%
  • Returning applicants: 50%
  • Top operating countries: Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya (15 entrepreneurs each), followed by Rwanda (9) and South Africa (6)
  • Leading sectors: Agriculture (21), Financial Services (12), Manufacturing (10), Healthcare (10), and Energy (9)

Key Sector Trends Driving the Cohort

The businesses represented address some of the continent’s most pressing challenges through scalable, regional solutions. The cohort also points to important shifts in the continent’s entrepreneurial landscape. Key trends include:

  • Agri-Tech Dominance: Comprising 21% of the cohort, agriculture has evolved beyond traditional farming into tech-enabled, value-added models.
  • Tech-Driven Financial Inclusion: As the second-largest sector (12%), Financial Services is leveraging machine learning and alternative data to provide paperless credit scoring for unbanked small businesses, resolving core frictions across markets
  • Recycling & Environmental Protection: 7% of the ABH Top 100 operate in this space, shifting toward high-margin circular economy models that combine profitability with social impact through value-added processing and emerging ESG/carbon credit monetization.
  • Decentralized Manufacturing Growth: Manufacturing accounts for 10% of the cohort and spans 9 diverse countries (including Cabo Verde, Namibia, and Ethiopia). This geographic spread indicates industrialization is accelerating beyond major economies, propelled by AfCFTA incentives, import substitution, and rising local demand.
  • AI as a Tool for Practical, Sector-Specific Innovation: 32 of the Top 100 entrepreneurs are integrating AI across 12 African countries to address concrete market challenges: improving low agricultural productivity through predictive crop and soil insights, expanding access to credit through alternative scoring, closing education gaps through personalized learning, easing healthcare shortages through triage and decision-support tools, and reducing logistics inefficiencies and supply chain waste through smarter routing and demand matching.

The full list of the ABH 2026 Top 100 entrepreneurs can be found here (www.AfricaBusinessHeroes.org).

Speaking on the significance of this year’s Top 100 cohort, Zahra Baitie-Boateng, Managing Director, Africa at ABH, said:

“The expansion from the Top 50 to the Top 100 reflects the extraordinary evolution of entrepreneurship across Africa. The 2026 cohort tells an important story: African entrepreneurship is becoming broader, deeper, and more commercially mature. These are not just promising ideas; they are real businesses operating across 27 countries, generating USD 170 million in annual revenue, employing 6,200 people, and serving 10 million customers. We are seeing strong innovation from established hubs as well as from emerging ecosystems that have often been underrepresented. By expanding the cohort, ABH is creating more opportunities for entrepreneurs to access visibility, recognition, community, and long-term support.”

Commenting on this year’s selection process, an ABH Round 1 Judge: Johan de Visser, Regional Manager, Africa at PUM & Founder of Africa Business Coaching, said:

“The quality of applications this year was exceptionally strong. What stood out was the level of innovation, clarity of vision, and deep understanding of local market challenges from founders across the continent. The Top 100 includes businesses that are already serving customers, creating jobs, and building scalable solutions across critical sectors, from agriculture and financial services to healthcare, manufacturing, energy, and climate. Expanding the cohort allows ABH to spotlight more of the entrepreneurs shaping Africa’s next phase of growth.”

Now in its 8th year, the ABH Prize Competition celebrates visionary leaders driving inclusive and sustainable growth across the continent. Since 2019, ABH has grown into one of Africa’s leading entrepreneurship platforms, directly awarding 70 entrepreneurs with funding, mentorship, global exposure, and ecosystem-building opportunities. ABH has also supported more than 5,000 entrepreneurs through programs including ABH ScaleUp and attracted more than 160,000 applicants to date.

The Top 100 will now advance to the next stage, where judges will evaluate the cohort to determine the Top 20 semi-finalists. The Top 20 will pitch live on August 21-22 in Nairobi, Kenya, competing for a place in the ABH Top 10 and a share of the USD 1.5 million grant prize.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Africa’s Business Heroes (ABH).

 

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Energy

Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027 to Host In-Country Value Forum on Youth, Women in Energy, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Workforce Development

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June 11, 2026

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LEES

LEES 2027 will host an In-Country Value Forum focused on youth training, capacity building, women in energy, AI enablement, and the nurturing of the next generation in oil, gas and energy

 

TRIPOLI, Libya, June 10, 2026/APO Group/ –The upcoming Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027 – taking place on January 23–25 in Tripoli – will host a dedicated In-Country Value Forum, featuring strategic sessions on human capital (including women and youth in the energy sector), AI-driven workforce transformation and education to drive Libya’s expanding energy sector.

 

The forum – set for January 24 – comes as Libya accelerates its upstream and downstream expansion agenda under the National Oil Corporation and Ministry of Oil and Gas, with output targets approaching 2 million barrels per day by 2030. Supported by international operators including TotalEnergies, Repsol, Eni, and OMV, LEES is positioned as a deal-making platform for investment, capacity building and digital transformation.

 

The session Youth in Energy – Next-Gen Strategic Human Capital Development, will focus on Libya’s expanding youth integration strategy. The state is mobilizing over 7,000 graduates across 50 cities through structured pipelines tied to exploration and production sharing agreements, with mandatory local hiring and training quotas embedded into new licensing rounds.

 

At LEES 2027, policymakers and operators will be positioned to assess how initiatives such as the Energy JEEL program are reshaping workforce entry points. With over 900 youth ambassadors already deployed, the framework connects technical institutes, field operators and policymakers, aligning human capital deployment with production hubs such as El Sharara and Mabruk.

 

The Digital Skills and AI: Modernizing the Local Energy Workforce session will examine the rapid digitization of Libya’s oil and gas operations. AI-enabled drilling systems deployed with SLB have already demonstrated autonomous reservoir navigation and doubled drilling rates in early 2026 pilot operations.

 

Discussions will also cover expanding digital infrastructure in remote basins, where telecom providers and service firms are addressing connectivity gaps. Platforms introduced under the National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence (2025–2030) are enabling predictive maintenance, real-time telemetry and automated production optimization across brownfield assets.

 

Meanwhile, the Energy Academy: From Classroom to Career session will focus on education-to-employment pipelines linking universities, vocational institutes and operators. Programs co-developed with international agencies including UNDP and GIZ are modernizing technical subsea curricula across petroleum institutes and regional training hubs.

 

The framework is designed to reduce youth unemployment while supplying a skilled workforce for both hydrocarbons and renewables. With Libya targeting a 20% renewable energy mix by 2035, graduates are being trained across solar PV systems, carbon accounting and grid integration, ensuring mobility across conventional and transition energy sectors.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Energy

SBM Offshore Confirmed as Silver Sponsor for African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Amid Africa FPSO Expansion Push

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June 10, 2026

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African Energy Chamber

SBM Offshore will participate as Silver Sponsor at African Energy Week 2026, where they are set to showcase FPSO expansion in Angola, Namibia and Guyana amid strong financials and a deepwater innovation strategy

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Multinational oil and gas services company SBM Offshore will participate at this year’s African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Conference and Exhibition as a Silver Sponsor, reinforcing the company’s long-term commitment to Africa’s expanding deepwater oil and gas industry. Their participation comes as SBM Offshore accelerates brownfield optimization projects in Angola while aggressively positioning itself for new frontier developments in Namibia’s Orange Basin.

 

SBM Offshore’s return to AEW, which takes place from October 12–16 in Cape Town, is expected to draw significant industry attention as operators, financiers and EPC contractors evaluate the next wave of floating production infrastructure across the Atlantic Basin. With more than 20 years of experience in Africa and over $31 billion in contract backlog globally, the company remains one of the world’s most influential FPSO suppliers.

The Sponsorship follows several major milestones announced during 2025 and 2026. On May 26, the American Bureau of Shipping approved SBM Offshore’s seawater intake riser technology developed alongside Shell. The system pumps cold seawater from depths of 700m to FPSO topsides, reducing onboard cooling energy demand and improving emissions performance for future African and South American projects.

The company’s financial position strengthened considerably following the $2.32 billion sale of FPSO One Guyana to ExxonMobil in February 2026. The transaction helped drive a 216% year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 directional revenue to $3.5 billion while reducing SBM Offshore’s net debt from $5.7 billion to $3.2 billion by March 21, 2026.

SBM Offshore continues to demonstrate the technical expertise, operational scale and long-term investment approach needed to advance Africa’s next generation of energy projects

In March 2026, ExxonMobil awarded SBM Offshore front-end engineering and design contracts for the Longtail development in Guyana. The proposed FPSO is expected to feature the world’s highest gas-handling capacity ever deployed on a floating production vessel, processing 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas and 250,000 barrels of condensate daily.

Across Africa, SBM Offshore continues expanding its offshore footprint. In Angola, the company signed multi-year extensions in December 2025 with Esso Exploration Angola for FPSO Mondo and FPSO Saxi Batuque in Block 15, extending operations through 2032. Brownfield upgrades and life-extension works commenced in early 2026 to support declining reservoir pressure management and maintain environmental compliance standards.

The company also finalized a share purchase agreement with Equatorial Guinea’s national oil company GEPetrol in December 2025, restructuring regional asset ownership and supporting localized operational transitions. The FPSO Aseng formally exited SBM Offshore’s lease-and-operate fleet during the same period as management responsibilities shifted toward Equatoguinean entities.

Namibia retains a central focus of SBM Offshore’s African growth strategy. The company is actively competing for TotalEnergies’ Venus FPSO contract in the Orange Basin, one of Africa’s largest recent offshore discoveries with estimated resources of roughly 2 billion barrels. SBM Offshore has expanded its Cape Town commercial engineering workforce while positioning its standardized technologies for upcoming South Atlantic developments.

“SBM Offshore’s participation at this year’s event reflects the growing momentum behind Africa’s deepwater industry and the critical role FPSO technology will play in unlocking new production. From Angola’s mature offshore hubs to Namibia’s frontier discoveries, SBM Offshore continues to demonstrate the technical expertise, operational scale and long-term investment approach needed to advance Africa’s next generation of energy projects,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.

Looking ahead, SBM Offshore aims to combine frontier expansion with lower-emission offshore production systems. Through partnerships with SLB and Cognite, the company is integrating industrial AI platforms to its global fleet while scaling standardized hull construction to accelerate project delivery timelines across Africa and Latin America.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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