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Consumers act with intention amidst uncertainty

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Consumer

The WARC 2025 Consumer Trends report explores key issues influencing consumer purchase decisions across brands and categories

22 July 2025 – WARC has today released its 2025 Global Consumer Trends report exploring the key issues that will influence consumer purchase decisions across brands and categories over the next year.

Based on a comprehensive set of GWI surveys across 54 markets combined with WARC’s own research, case studies and analysis, the report focuses on five broad trends influencing brand selection: The widening cost-of-living gap, increasing trust in individual creators, AI assistants disrupting the purchase journey, consumers’ proactive approach to health, and the rise of alternative social activities.

Stephanie Siew, Senior Research Executive, WARC, says: “Amidst persisting economic uncertainty and the unpredictability around US trade tariffs, consumers are becoming more intentional in their spending and taking greater control over different aspects of their lives, particularly in the way they consume information, manage their wellbeing, and connect with others.

“With this report we aim to provide a wider view of the major issues confronting our industry from the perspective of consumers, with suggestions to help businesses create the most impact in the coming year.”

The consumer trends that will shape spending decisions in the year ahead, identified by WARC are:

● The widening cost-of-living gap: 55% of low-income consumers would rather pay less for a cheaper own-brand product than pay more for a brand they know

Spending power is increasingly polarised, and the widening wealth gap is causing a divergence in consumer spending habits. In the US the wealthiest 10% of households now account for almost half of consumer spending, per Moody Analytics; and UBS predicts the richest millennials will hold five times more wealth by 2030 than they do today, setting them further apart from their peers.

Tariffs are likely to accelerate this trend. Compared to higher-income households, lower-income families spend a larger portion of their income on essential goods, including more traded goods like food and apparel. Price increases in any of these areas would add substantially more strain on their budgets and reduce their purchasing power. Job losses in sectors reliant on imports are also expected to disproportionately affect lower-income families.

Within the low-income segment, 55% of consumers worldwide surveyed by GWI said they would rather pay less for a cheaper own-brand product than pay more for a brand they know. This compares to 40% in the high-income segment who said the same. The popularity of private label or own-brand products reflects consumers’ growing willingness to switch brands for better value.

Faris Yakob, Co-founder, Genius Steals, says: “Since the ‘middle class’ is bifurcating into the haves and have-nots, many companies are reshuffling to serve the top twenty percent and the top one percent within that. The lower echelons are offered value alternatives and those with money are tempted to spend it on various levels of luxury as those companies pivot to lower volume / higher margin business models.”

Marketers can respond by re-examining their target audience and adjust pricing strategies to align with changes in demand. Additionally, re-evaluate the value drivers for different segments and tailor communications and product offerings accordingly.

● The growing credibility of individual creators: Nearly half (47%) of social media users have made purchases based on influencer endorsements in the past year

Consumer attention is increasingly shifting to non-traditional information sources for news and information. Independent voices such as social media influencers and content creators, which are viewed as more authentic and transparent, are gaining traction.

Per GWI, consumers are now more likely to get their news from social media (57%) than from more traditional channels such as national TV news (52%) and news websites (49%). Consumption varies widely by generation — 71% of Gen Z have seen, read, or heard information on news from social media in the last month, compared to 62% of millennials, 48% of Gen X, and 33% of baby boomers.

As influencers build their credibility as trustworthy sources of information, their endorsements are highly valued. Nearly half (47%) of social media users have made purchases based on influencer endorsements in the past year, with trustworthiness a key factor in purchase decisions.

Sapna Chadha, VP of SEA and South Asia Frontier, Google, says: “Consumers are going to creators to discover information about brands. The difference now is that they are moving from passive discovery to really immersing themselves in an entirely new shopping experience, which encompasses video.”

Marketers can respond by leveraging individual voices, exploring partnerships with individual creators, tapping into their reach and reputation, or elevating the voices of in-house experts. Brands should also balance paid and earned media, and take a proactive approach to brand safety ensuring alignment with brand values.

● The humanisation of AI: 24% of consumers are happy to have AI agents do their shopping for them

The arrival of AI agents are expected to disrupt the way customers engage with brands. Unlike chatbots, agents can autonomously make decisions and carry out tasks on behalf of users.

OpenAI’s Operator performs tasks like filling out forms and ordering groceries, whilst Google’s Project Mariner can search flights, hotels or buy household goods.

ChatGPT remains the most popular AI tool among consumers (45% say they have used it in the past month), but others, such as Google Gemini and Microsoft Copilot, are quickly gaining ground.

Data from Salesforce shows that four in ten (39%) consumers are already comfortable with AI agents scheduling appointments, and a quarter (24%) are comfortable with AI agents doing their shopping (rising to nearly a third among Gen Z).

Debra Aho Williamson, Founder and chief analyst, Sonata Insights, says: “Soon, consumers will not even need to go to an AI platform to do what they do today. Instead, they will have an AI agent perform a task on their behalf, and the results will be delivered to them.”

Four in ten users of AI tools in the past month say that AI chatbots are efficient, provide quick responses, and just under a third (31%) appreciate that AI chatbots are available 24/7. However, data from GWI indicates that brands should not neglect the human touch with users citing emotional connection and empathy as setting human interactions apart from AI chatbots.

Marketers should respond by balancing AI and human support across touchpoints and optimise search strategies to ensure brands are visible and favourably represented in AI-generated search results.

● A proactive approach to health: 77% of consumers are concerned about the associated health risks of ultra-processed foods

Growing health consciousness and advancements in health tracking are empowering consumers to take more control over their health. There is a growing focus on preventative healthcare and healthy ageing.

More consumers are investing in vitamins, supplements, and other foods with functional benefits. Nearly a third (31%) of consumers say they have purchased vitamins or supplements in the past month, up 7pp from 24% in 2022, per GWI. Research by McKinsey revealed that millennials and Gen Z in the US were more likely than their older counterparts to have purchased a health and wellness product or service.

Growing concerns around digestive health and ultra-processed foods are driving consumers to choose which grocery items to purchase with food packaging and labels playing an important role. Over three-quarters (77%) of consumers are very or somewhat concerned about the associated health risks of ultra-processed foods.

Alberto Romano, Global Consumer & Shopper Planning Collaboration Manager, Diageo, says: “Whether it is wellness-orientated food or clothing designed for comfort and emotional wellbeing, brands have the opportunity to shape the future by carving out unique and meaningful roles and purposes that resonate deeply with consumers’ wellness lifestyles.”

Marketers can respond by spotlighting nutritional benefits, addressing and tailoring communications to the unique needs of customers, and emphasising a balanced lifestyle. Brands not traditionally linked to the health and wellbeing category (e.g., soft drinks and snacks) can tap into this sector by offering ‘better-for-you’ versions of their products or positioning some products as indulgences to be enjoyed mindfully.

● Rewriting the rules of social connection: half of Gen Z (51%) and millennials (50%) play board games at least once a month

Younger consumers are rethinking the way they spend time together. As people seek more meaningful ways to connect with each other, interest-led activities and hobbies are gaining popularity, leading to a boom in interest-based social clubs, both online (e.g., Letterboxd, Strava) and offline. The cost of going out is a major factor driving this trend forward, and it is likely to continue being a concern as tariffs increase living costs.

Data from GWI highlights the appeal of board games to younger consumers — around half of Gen Z (51%) and millennials (50%) say they play board games at least once a month. The most commonly played games are strategy, word / trivia, and party games.

For some, a greater focus on health and wellbeing has boosted their interest in fitness and exercise (38% of consumers), sports (33%), and outdoor activities such as camping and hiking (33%).

GWI data shows high consumer demand for collective, in-person experiences such as festivals and events. Over half (53%) of consumers attended a festival in the past 12 months.

Colleen Ryan, Partner, TRA, says: “Ultimately, the way people build connections has changed. We have moved from traditional systems to connecting with people whose interests are shared. For brands, this presents a challenge but also an opportunity, a middle ground on which to build connection, a space in between.”

Brands can respond by identifying new touchpoints to help boost brand visibility and mental availability, as well as creating opportunities for connection through a brand’s positioning or via experiential activations like pop-ups, workshops, and festivals.

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World’s biggest brands increasingly spend less of their sales revenue on advertising – except consumer goods giants

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15 October 2026 – The world’s largest brand owners are, on average, spending a diminishing share of their sales revenue on advertising – with the notable exception of consumer goods companies, finds WARC Media.

In its latest “Global Ad Trends report: The cost of being seen”, WARC Media examines shifts in advertising intensity among 25 of the world’s largest advertisers, to better understand the extent to which big brand-owners are driving growth in the global market.

 




  

Alex Brownsell, Head of Content, WARC Media, says: “The global ad market is expanding rapidly, but companies from Meta to Mastercard and McDonald’s are allocating a diminishing share of revenue to advertising. Only consumer goods companies – buffeted by softening sales growth and with trade budgets moving into measured media – are increasing ad intensity.

“This underlines what we’ve previously reported – namely that we are operating in a two-speed marketplace. The expansion of digital platform spend by smaller businesses and cross-border e-commerce sellers is by far outpacing growth in ad investment by big brands. This has major implications for the ecosystem of agencies and vendors operating in the enterprise market.”

Key findings outlined in WARC’s “Global Ad Trends: The cost of being seen” are:

Advertising intensity is changing

WARC Media forecasts global ad spend to grow 11.9% this year to $1.34trn. Adjusted for inflation, this is an increase of 61.3% over the last 25 years, fuelled by new channels like retail media and platform advertising that didn’t exist a decade ago.

However, advertising intensity has declined in recent years. Across 25 large US-based advertisers, the combined ad-to-sales ratio, a measure of how much companies spend relative to their size, fell from 6.1% in 2019 to 5.5% in 2025. This does not represent a retreat from advertising: their combined ad spend rose 56%, but budgets have not kept pace with rising revenue, which rose by 73%.

Big Tech companies are driving the downward trend

Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Netflix’s combined ad-to-sales ratio fell from 13.0% to 7.4% between 2019 and 2025, while their combined revenue rose 146%, from $379bn to $931bn. Had they maintained their 2019 ratio, these brands would have spent $121bn in 2025 – $52bn more than they actually did.

Consumer goods brands are an outlier, with intensity rising

The six biggest consumer goods brands analysed by WARC Media – Coca-Cola, Estée Lauder, L’Oréal, Nike, PepsiCo and Procter & Gamble – moved the other way. Five raised their ad-to-sales ratios between 2019 and 2025; PepsiCo’s was broadly flat.

Softening sales growth pushed the combined consumer goods ad-to-sales ratio from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.5% in 2025, with budget shifts into areas like retail media further lifting ad intensity. From 2019 to 2025, their collective ad spend grew 36%, outpacing 29% revenue growth.

Non tech companies and consumer goods brands are less consistent

The remaining 15 advertisers – neither tech nor consumer goods – tell a less consistent story. Weighted by revenue, the group’s average ratio was flat to slightly up, yet 10 of the 15 individual companies cut their ratios between 2019 and 2025:

 

  • Automotive: Ford (2.3% to 1.6%) and General Motors (2.7% to 1.7%).
  • Payments: Visa (4.8% to 4.2%) and Mastercard (5.6% to 4.0%).
  • Restaurants and retail: McDonald’s (1.7% to 1.3%) and Target (2.0% to 1.4%).
  • Also falling: Marriott, Booking Holdings, Eli Lilly and The Home Depot.
  • Amazon and Yum! Brands were broadly flat.
  • Three companies saw their ad-to-sales ratios rise: Walmart, Starbucks and Expedia.

The three forces behind the ratio split

There are three main forces that cause changes to ad intensity:

  1. Weak sales. Brands maintaining ad spend in adverse market conditions, with sales going into reverse, may see ad intensity rise.
  2. Budgets changing lines. Money that used to sit with sales teams as trade and shopper spend is moving into retail media, and so into the advertising line.
  3. Owning versus renting attention. Companies that own an audience, like Alphabet and Meta, have an opportunity to grow without renting attention.

WARC Media subscribers can read the report in full. A WARC podcast on the findings outlined in the report will be available from 17 November.

 

Global Ad Trends, part of WARC Media, is a quarterly report which draws on WARC’s dataset of advertising and media intelligence to take a holistic view on current industry developments.

  




 

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Senegal Opens 104 Blocks to Investors, Targets New Upstream Contracts

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Senegal

Senegal’s Minister of Energy and Petroleum, El Hadji Abdourahmane Diouf, told AEW delegates that the country is seeking partners for its remaining acreage, the Yakaar-Teranga gas project and downstream developments

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, October 15, 2026/APO Group/ –Senegal has 104 oil and gas blocks available to investors and is seeking new upstream contracts to accelerate exploration and production, El Hadji Abdourahmane Diouf, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, said at African Energy Week 2026 in Cape Town. Of the 113 blocks in Senegal’s reorganized acreage, four are under contract and five have been allocated to Eni for studies, leaving substantial opportunities for international and regional operators.

 

“We hope to sign a number of contracts…” he said, adding that the country aims to “show investors that Senegal remains the country it has always been: open, hospitable and respectful of international procedures.”

Senegal reorganized its upstream acreage into 113 blocks in March 2026, comprising 65 onshore and 48 offshore blocks. The country also signed an agreement with Eni to assess the oil and gas potential of five offshore blocks.

Our strategy is to build the value chain from the well to the factory, with gas at the heart of our industrial ambition

Beyond new exploration acreage, Senegal is seeking partners to develop the Yakaar-Teranga gas project alongside national oil company Petrosen. Petrosen took full control of the project after Kosmos Energy withdrew in April 2026. Minister Diouf said Yakaar-Teranga will supply gas for power generation, industrial applications including fertilizer production, and exports. Advancing the project will require a coherent development structure, credible buyers and a clear investment program.

“Our strategy is to build the value chain from the well to the factory, with gas at the heart of our industrial ambition,” he said.

Downstream, Minister Diouf pointed to a planned second refinery that will process Sangomar crude, with investment estimated at $2 billion to $3 billion. The Société Africaine de Raffinage (SAR) and Turkey’s Yamata signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the four-million-ton-per-year refinery in New York on September 23, 2026. Minister Diouf said the project opens further opportunities in storage, logistics, distribution and petrochemicals.

Minister Diouf invited investors to examine Senegal’s data, work with its technical teams and bring proposals backed by the capacity to invest and execute. He also asked partners to involve Senegalese companies and skills from the outset, with support from the national local content monitoring committee.

“Capital must earn a return. Senegal must gain a stronger economy. The partnership we seek must serve both purposes,” he said.

According to Minister Diouf, Senegal hopes to expand the MSGBC alliance beyond its five host countries of Senegal, Mauritania, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, but he did not specify which countries are being considered.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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Africa shifts from carbon market potential to delivery as Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) 2026 opens in Kigali

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Carbon Markets Africa Summit

African governments, development finance institutions and global climate leaders call for high-integrity markets, investment-ready projects and greater value for African communities

KIGALI, Rwanda, October 15, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa must move beyond carbon market potential towards delivery, building high-integrity, investable markets that attract long-term capital while protecting national climate priorities and ensuring greater value reaches African countries and communities.

 




 
 

That was the central message from the opening keynote sessions of the Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) 2026 in Kigali, Rwanda, where policymakers, investors, project developers, development finance institutions and international climate organisations gathered to accelerate Africa’s participation in global carbon markets.

Representatives from 45 countries, including 21 African nations, are participating in the summit, where discussions have shifted decisively from market readiness to implementation, investment and transactions.

Officially opening the summit, Hon. Dr Bernadette Arakwiye, Rwanda’s Minister of Environment, said Africa’s carbon markets must be shaped by African priorities and deliver tangible benefits for the continent.

“The question before us is therefore no longer simply whether Africa is ready. It is whether we can deliver at scale, with integrity and with innovation.”

Minister Arakwiye said progress is already evident as African countries establish carbon market frameworks, grant authorisations, sign bilateral agreements and develop projects. However, she cautioned that carbon finance remains concentrated in a relatively narrow range of project types. She called for diversification into renewable energy, electric mobility, sustainable waste management, industrial decarbonisation, agriculture and landscape-scale nature-based solutions.

Minister Arakwiye identified three priorities for scaling Africa’s carbon markets: accessible methodologies suited to African contexts; project preparation and readiness finance; and long-term demand at fair value.

“Trust is the currency of this market,” she said. “To our buyers and investors, I say: look closely at these efforts. Reward them with long-term demand, fair prices and patient capital.”

From potential to execution

The call for delivery was echoed by Hon. Hamad Yusuf Masauni, Tanzania’s Minister of State in the Vice President’s Office responsible for Union Affairs and Environment, who said the continent now has an opportunity to reposition itself in global carbon markets.

“For too long, Africa has been spoken about as a continent of potential. At the Carbon Markets Africa Summit, we declare that the era of potential is giving way to the era of execution.”

Minister Masauni stressed the importance of moving high-quality, bankable projects through to issuance and offtake rather than focusing solely on the size of project pipelines.

“Credibility is built one verified tonne, one closed deal and one community that sees real benefit at a time.”

The importance of ensuring value reaches communities was also central to remarks from Maxwell Gomera, UNDP Resident Representative in South Africa and Director of the Africa Sustainable Finance Hub.

Gomera called for market infrastructure capable of carrying value “from the buyer all the way to the farmer”, backed by strong community rights, enforceable benefit-sharing, early-stage finance and partnerships focused on delivery.

Africa urged to compete on integrity, not price

For too long, Africa has been spoken about as a continent of potential

Speakers also stressed that Africa’s competitive advantage should be the quality and integrity of its carbon assets rather than simply offering the lowest-priced credits.

Perumal Arumugam, Manager of Markets and Non-Markets and Stakeholder Interaction at UN Climate Change (UNFCCC), said Africa should move beyond asking how it can participate in carbon markets and instead consider how carbon markets can advance African priorities.

“Africa should not compete simply by offering the cheapest tonnes. Africa should compete by offering credible and creditable tonnes, a sustainable tonne, and a tonne that the world can trust.”

He said success should ultimately be measured not only in credits issued, but in investment mobilised, mitigation unlocked, value reaching communities, stronger economies and African countries retaining control over their climate transitions.

Speaking on behalf of AUDA-NEPAD, Esterine Fotabong similarly called for African countries to scale carbon markets on their own terms, supported by predictable authorisations, functioning registries and credible monitoring, reporting and verification systems.

She also highlighted the need to build greater African capacity in validation and verification and expand access to carbon finance in sectors such as agriculture.

Global demand will reward quality

Representing the European Commission, Lukas Visek, Deputy Head of the Directorate-General for Climate Action Task Force for Carbon Pricing and Carbon Markets, signaled future European demand for international carbon credits while stressing that quality requirements would be stringent.

“Additionality and permanence are not negotiable,” he said. “Quality, however, will be rewarded.”

The message to developers was clear: projects being developed for future international demand will need robust data, genuine additionality, strong community participation and demonstrable alignment with national and global climate goals.

Turning carbon projects into investable assets

The summit’s opening programme then moved directly from policy to capital and deal flow, with leaders from the African Development Bank (AfDB), Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) and Kigali International Financial Centre (KIFC) examining the practical barriers preventing more investment from reaching African projects.

Policy certainty, early-stage project preparation, bankable pipelines, robust governance and appropriate financial risk-sharing were identified as critical to accelerating capital flows.

Dr Anthony Nyong, Director of Climate Change and Green Growth at the African Development Bank, emphasised that carbon markets should ultimately be viewed through the lens of African development.

“We don’t have carbon projects. We have development projects.”

Greg Fyfe, Chief Investment Officer at DBSA, highlighted the catalytic role development finance institutions can play by supporting project preparation, providing patient capital and absorbing risks private investors are unable to take.

The opening sessions underscored a decisive shift in the African carbon market conversation: from readiness to delivery, from fragmented projects to investable pipelines, and from selling credits to building markets capable of delivering lasting economic, social and climate value.

As CMAS 2026 continues in Kigali, attention now turns to connecting credible African projects with buyers and capital, unlocking transactions and ensuring Africa plays a leading role in shaping the next generation of global carbon markets.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of VUKA Group.

 

 




 

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