JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, October 7, 2026/APO Group/ —

• The AI boom has become a powerful driver of global trade, outweighing tariffs and geopolitical shocks
• The trade outlook has improved, with growth through 2029 now forecast to outpace the previous decade
• Sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong trade value growth of 11% in the first five months of 2026
• U.S.-China ties declined significantly, but U.S. allies are not following the same path
• Globalization reached a record level of 25.8%

 




  

Sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong trade value growth in 2026 despite higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruption to major trade routes. The value of the region’s trade rose 11% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, placing it behind only East Asia and the Pacific, at 24%, and Europe, at 12%. This follows a year in which the region achieved the world’s fastest trade value growth during the first six months of 2025

These findings form part of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released today by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. Based on more than 30 million data points, the report analyses international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. It offers the most comprehensive view of globalization available. This edition marks the report’s first publication under its new name. It was previously known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker”.

AI buildout boosts global trade

The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.

“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”

Global effects of Iran war and tariffs remain limited

At the same time, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes. But the effects remained concentrated. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Trade policy created a separate headwind. U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the U.S. accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

Trade outlook upgraded despite recent shocks

Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.

“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”

Sub-Saharan Africa records strong trade growth

Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.

“The narrative around Africa often focuses on challenges. What this data shows is that trade across the region continues to grow, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption. That’s a strong signal of the resilience of African businesses and the growing connections between African markets and the rest of the world. The next step is making sure more SMEs can access those opportunities and grow beyond their home markets,” said Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa.

East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.

Sharp U.S.–China decoupling, but no global split

One of the most significant changes in international flows is the weakening of U.S.–China ties. Yet the global impact remains surprisingly small. For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026. The U.S.–China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China. These findings challenge the idea that U.S.–China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.

A closer look also shows that direct trade figures understate U.S. reliance on China. Goods imported into the U.S. from other countries contain growing amounts of Chinese materials and components. When these indirect imports are also taken into account, U.S. reliance on China has declined only slightly through 2024, the latest year for which data are available.

Globalization reaches a new record

Beyond trade and investment patterns, the report tracks the broader development of globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It uses a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment.

All four flow categories contributed to the new record, reaching higher levels of internationalization. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalized.

The DHL Globalization Tracker

The DHL Globalization Tracker is a concise report and interactive website that provides regular updates on globalization and global trade. It complements the renowned DHL Globalization Report, published regularly since 2011. Drawn from over 25 public, private, and academic sources, the Tracker analyzes more than 30 million data points on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people.
It includes interactive online charts that make it easy for users to explore trends by region, geopolitical alignment, and for individual countries. It also supports easy data and chart downloads for offline use.

The DHL Globalization Tracker is commissioned by DHL and authored by Prof. Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It is available, together with further resources, at https://apo-opa.co/4jIMVdN.

Note: The DHL Globalization Tracker and DHL Globalization Report were formerly known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker” and “DHL Global Connectedness Report”. Their new names more directly reflect the focus of the research. The scope and underlying approach remain unchanged, ensuring continuity with previous editions.

NAIROBI, Kenya, October 7, 2026/APO Group/ –Six African startups have been selected as winners of the 2026 FINCA (https://FINCA.org/ )Ventures Prize Competition (https://apo-opa.co/4zgFQFQ), receiving a combined $400,000 in catalytic funding to accelerate their impact in key resilience sectors. The competition, a flagship initiative of FINCA’s impact investing arm (https://apo-opa.co/4zimrEA), spotlights the depth and potential of entrepreneurial talent developing practical, scalable responses to some of the continent’s most pressing challenges.

 




 
 

“Africa’s future will be shaped by entrepreneurs who see opportunity where others see market failure,” said FINCA Global CEO Andrée Simon. “One of the most important ways we can support these founders is by backing them early and helping them build the credibility and traction to attract additional investment and achieve meaningful scale.”

Now in its third year, the FINCA Ventures Prize Competition drew more than 700 applications in two categories: fintech for financial inclusion and sustainable agriculture & food systems. First-place winners in each category — VunaPay, co-founded by Gatwiri Njogu-Mokaya and Koya Matsuno, and Kumbatia Seafood, co-founded by Bernard Iha Thoya, Will Gertler, and Nelson Ondego Mumata — received a $100,000 grant, while second- and third-place winners received $60,000 and $40,000, respectively.

A Case for Early Investment

The companies recognized through the FINCA Ventures Prize Competition illustrate the vast opportunity emerging across Africa’s entrepreneurial ecosystem. Too often, promising founders struggle to tap into traditional investment networks, despite strong potential, proven track records, and innovative business models.

“Entrepreneurship remains one of the most powerful drivers of economic progress across the continent, but early-stage businesses can’t do it alone,” said FINCA Ventures Managing Director Winnie Mwangi. “Catalytic capital is what allows founders to reach the scale where both financial returns and social impact compound. Investors and partners willing to act early play an essential role in supporting startups through critical growth stages and drawing attention to opportunities that might otherwise be overlooked.”

Advancing Africa’s Startup Ecosystem

The six finalist companies of the 2026 competition, three of which are led or co-led by women, pitched their ventures to a panel of distinguished judges on October 6 in San Francisco at an event hosted by Cisco, and the winners were announced later that evening at an award celebration. The judging panel comprised leaders from across impact investing, venture capital, fintech, and sustainable development.

The award will help first-place winner VunaPay scale its model designed to expand access to timely payments and financing for smallholder farmers through agricultural cooperatives. As co-founder Koya Matsuno explained: “There are about 54,000 cooperatives across Africa, and each of them has between 500 and 10,000 farmers. This equates to millions of smallholder households that we can serve.”

Kumbatia Seafood’s co-founder Will Gertler shared that the team will use the funding to expand the company’s operations to increase impact for small-scale fishers on the Swahili Coast: “The FINCA Ventures Prize will go towards working capital and expansion financing to build out our first sales department and scale our intervention to a dozen more communities by 2030.”

Second-place winners are nesti, co-founded by Christabel Ojuok and David Kimani, in fintech for financial inclusion, and eAgro, co-founded by Tafadzwa Chikwereti and Golden Nhunhama, in sustainable agriculture & food systems. Third-place winners are ChatCash, co-founded by John Josiah Sakala, Leon Kanamugire, Edgar Erick, and Jude Egbokwu, in fintech for financial inclusion, and Pollen Patrollers, co-founded by Margaret Wanjiku, Julieta Wanjohi, and Charity Maina, in sustainable agriculture & food systems.

“The FINCA Ventures Prize is an opportunity to spotlight emerging African entrepreneurs who are creating jobs and building financial and social resilience across the continent,” said FINCA International Board Chair David Weisman. “Their ingenuity and determination are remarkable, and their impact deserves far greater visibility.”

Winners of the 2026 FINCA Ventures Prize Competition

Category: Fintech for Financial Inclusion

FIRST PLACE – $100,000

VunaPay

Website: www.VunaPay.com

Location: Kenya

Founders: Gatwiri Njogu-Mokaya (https://apo-opa.co/4i7JDzD) and Koya Matsuno (https://apo-opa.co/4zboAC6)

In Kenya, VunaPay (www.VunaPay.com) builds last-mile payment and credit infrastructure for agricultural value chains across Africa, enabling instant payments to smallholder farmers through cooperatives. COO Koya Matsuno explained how the company’s digital finance platform is improving transparency, efficiency, and access to formal financial services.

SECOND PLACE – $60,000

nesti

Website: https://nesti.Africa/

Location: Kenya

Founders: Christabel Ojuok (https://apo-opa.co/4ekj2Ns) and David Kimani (https://apo-opa.co/3VUtFjH)

In Kenya, nesti (https://nesti.Africa/) is turning rent into a credit-building tool by converting regular, on-time payments into a trusted financial identity that unlocks fair credit and home ownership. CEO David Kimani explained that the company’s mission is to help African renters build generational wealth and achieve financial freedom.

THIRD PLACE – $40,000

ChatCash

Website: https://ChatCash.africa/

Location: Rwanda, Zimbabwe

Founders: John Josiah Sakala, (https://apo-opa.co/3U7xfqe) Leon Kanamugire (https://apo-opa.co/4AX9FgE), Edgar Erick, and Jude Egbokwu (https://apo-opa.co/3VQRetJ)

In Rwanda and Zimbabwe, ChatCash (https://ChatCash.africa/) is an AI conversational operating system that turns WhatsApp into automated digital storefronts with native, interactive payment buttons for African micromerchants. CEO John Josiah Sakala explained that the platform helps merchants double their conversion rates while building transaction trails that can unlock access to financial services.

Category: Sustainable Agriculture & Food Systems

FIRST PLACE – $100,000

Kumbatia Seafood

Website: www.KumbatiaSeafood.com

Location: Kenya

Founders: Bernard Iha Thoya (https://apo-opa.co/4ARW5e9), Will Gertler (https://apo-opa.co/4zp9k4J), and Nelson Ondego Mumata (https://apo-opa.co/3VUDiyS)

Kumbatia Seafood (www.KumbatiaSeafood.com) sources, finances, and distributes sustainably caught, artisanal fish from small-scale fishing communities along Kenya’s Swahili Coast. CEO Will Gertler explained how the company combines financing, cold chain logistics, export-grade processing, and full digital traceability to connect coastal fishers to premium markets while protecting the marine ecosystems they depend on.

SECOND PLACE – $60,000

eAgro

Website: https://eAgro.co.zw/ 

Location: Zimbabwe

Founders: Tafadzwa Chikwereti (https://apo-opa.co/4zgFuPD) and Golden Nhunhama (https://apo-opa.co/3VReyHO)

In Zimbabwe, eAgro builds AI infrastructure that works without internet, enabling farmers in rural communities to access real-time agricultural guidance through basic mobile phones. CEO Tafadzwa Chikwereti explained how the company’s digital tools combine AI, satellite analytics, soil science, and local advisory systems to improve yields, reduce losses, and strengthen climate resilience across Africa.

THIRD PLACE – $40,000

Pollen Patrollers

Website: www.PollenPatrollers.com

Location: Kenya

Founders: Margaret Wanjiku (https://apo-opa.co/4zjwAB5), Julieta Wanjohi (https://apo-opa.co/4i54LXg), and Charity Maina

In Kenya, Pollen Patrollers uses solar-powered IoT technology and AI-driven pollination services to help smallholder farmers and beekeepers increase crop yields and reduce bee colony collapse. CEO Margaret Wanjiku explained how the company is building more resilient food systems across East Africa and creating green jobs for women and youth.