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Sub-Saharan Africa records strong trade growth as globalization reaches record level

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These findings form part of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released today by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, October 7, 2026/APO Group/ —

  • The AI boom has become a powerful driver of global trade, outweighing tariffs and geopolitical shocks
  • The trade outlook has improved, with growth through 2029 now forecast to outpace the previous decade
  • Sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong trade value growth of 11% in the first five months of 2026
  • U.S.-China ties declined significantly, but U.S. allies are not following the same path
  • Globalization reached a record level of 25.8%

 




  

Sub-Saharan Africa recorded strong trade value growth in 2026 despite higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruption to major trade routes. The value of the region’s trade rose 11% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, placing it behind only East Asia and the Pacific, at 24%, and Europe, at 12%. This follows a year in which the region achieved the world’s fastest trade value growth during the first six months of 2025

These findings form part of the latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, released today by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. Based on more than 30 million data points, the report analyses international flows of trade, capital, information, and people. It offers the most comprehensive view of globalization available. This edition marks the report’s first publication under its new name. It was previously known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker”.

AI buildout boosts global trade

The report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. A major driver was strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.

“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI, not tariffs,” said John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express. “Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”

Global effects of Iran war and tariffs remain limited

At the same time, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes. But the effects remained concentrated. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.

Trade policy created a separate headwind. U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the U.S. accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August 2026. Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

Trade outlook upgraded despite recent shocks

Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade.

The next step is making sure more SMEs can access those opportunities and grow beyond their home markets

“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” said Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management. “The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries. It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”

Sub-Saharan Africa records strong trade growth

Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.

“The narrative around Africa often focuses on challenges. What this data shows is that trade across the region continues to grow, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and market disruption. That’s a strong signal of the resilience of African businesses and the growing connections between African markets and the rest of the world. The next step is making sure more SMEs can access those opportunities and grow beyond their home markets,” said Hennie Heymans, CEO of DHL Express Sub-Saharan Africa.

East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.

Sharp U.S.–China decoupling, but no global split

One of the most significant changes in international flows is the weakening of U.S.–China ties. Yet the global impact remains surprisingly small. For example, trade between the U.S. and China accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its peak in 2015, before falling to only 1.6% during the first five months of 2026. The U.S.–China share of international business investment is even smaller – less than 1%. Meanwhile, close U.S. allies have largely maintained their relationships with China. These findings challenge the idea that U.S.–China decoupling is dividing the world economy into rival blocs.

A closer look also shows that direct trade figures understate U.S. reliance on China. Goods imported into the U.S. from other countries contain growing amounts of Chinese materials and components. When these indirect imports are also taken into account, U.S. reliance on China has declined only slightly through 2024, the latest year for which data are available.

Globalization reaches a new record

Beyond trade and investment patterns, the report tracks the broader development of globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It uses a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment.

All four flow categories contributed to the new record, reaching higher levels of internationalization. Information flows remain the most globalized, followed by capital and trade flows. People flows remain the least globalized.

The DHL Globalization Tracker

The DHL Globalization Tracker is a concise report and interactive website that provides regular updates on globalization and global trade. It complements the renowned DHL Globalization Report, published regularly since 2011. Drawn from over 25 public, private, and academic sources, the Tracker analyzes more than 30 million data points on international flows of trade, capital, information, and people.
It includes interactive online charts that make it easy for users to explore trends by region, geopolitical alignment, and for individual countries. It also supports easy data and chart downloads for offline use.

The DHL Globalization Tracker is commissioned by DHL and authored by Prof. Steven A. Altman and Caroline R. Bastian of New York University Stern School of Business. It is available, together with further resources, at https://apo-opa.co/4jIMVdN.

Note: The DHL Globalization Tracker and DHL Globalization Report were formerly known as the “DHL Global Connectedness Tracker” and “DHL Global Connectedness Report”. Their new names more directly reflect the focus of the research. The scope and underlying approach remain unchanged, ensuring continuity with previous editions.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of DHL Group.

 




 

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Spiro and Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners (ESP) kick off pilot programme in Rwanda, aiming to support 5,000 women entrepreneurs across Africa

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Spiro and ESP aim to support 5,000 women across Africa by 2030, encouraging greater participation of women in the continent’s growing electric mobility sector

KIGALI, Rwanda, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ —

  • 50 women have already begun their training in Rwanda, following the programme’s launch as part of an initial pilot targeting 500 participants.
  • The programme combines practical and entrepreneurial training, access to affordable electric motorcycles, financing and commercial opportunities to help women build their own businesses.
  • Spiro and ESP aim to support 5,000 women across Africa by 2030, encouraging greater participation of women in the continent’s growing electric mobility sector.
  • The initiative aims to increase women’s participation in electric mobility, particularly in Rwanda, where they represent just 4% of transport workers.

 

Spiro (www.Spironet.com), Africa’s leading electric mobility company, and Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners (ESP), a pan-African firm specialising in entrepreneurship development, have launched the Women in E-Mobility programme in Rwanda, an initiative designed to help women become professional electric motorcycle riders, develop their own businesses and generate sustainable income.

 




 
 

The programme is already underway, with the first 50 women having started training October 2026. They form the first cohort of a pilot targeting 500 women in Rwanda, before a planned expansion to other African markets to reach 5,000 participants by 2030.

This initiative reflects Spiro’s ambition to ensure that the growth of electric mobility in Africa creates new opportunities for women. While motorcycles are a major source of employment in transport, delivery and logistics, women remain largely underrepresented in the sector. In Rwanda, women account for just 4% of transport workers, despite a 2025 study in Kigali finding that 47.7% of women surveyed would consider becoming motorcycle taxi drivers.

Electric mobility is creating new economic opportunities across Africa, and we want more women to be part of this transformation

The Women in E-Mobility programme aims to address these challenges by providing participants with practical motorcycle riding and road safety training, financial literacy, digital skills and entrepreneurship support. Women will also gain access to affordable financing, including lease-to-own arrangements, enabling them to acquire Spiro electric motorcycles and use its battery-swapping network.

Beyond access to vehicles, the programme will connect participants with ride-hailing, delivery and logistics platforms, helping them secure customers and build sustainable businesses. Through this approach, Spiro and ESP aim to encourage more women to pursue careers in electric mobility and contribute to the sector’s growth.

“Electric mobility is creating new economic opportunities across Africa, and we want more women to be part of this transformation. Through this programme, we are giving women the tools to become professional drivers, build their own businesses and generate income. Our ambition is to encourage a new generation of women entrepreneurs who will help shape the future of mobility on the continent,” said Anant Badjatya, Group CEO of Spiro.

The programme combines Spiro’s electric mobility infrastructure with the entrepreneurship expertise of Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners (ESP), a pan-African firm helping entrepreneurs access financing, develop their skills and grow their businesses.

“For women entrepreneurs, having access to a motorcycle is only the first step. Building a successful business also requires skills, financing, customers and ongoing support. By combining ESP’s entrepreneurship expertise with Spiro’s electric mobility ecosystem, we want to create practical and sustainable economic opportunities for women,” said Eric Kacou, Co-founder and CEO of Entrepreneurial Solutions Partners.

Rwanda was selected as the starting point for the programme, building on its growing electric mobility ecosystem and Spiro’s established local presence, including its assembly operations and battery-swapping network.

The initial pilot will help assess participants’ progress, income generation and business performance before the programme is progressively extended to other African countries where Spiro operates between 2027 and 2030. To support this expansion, Spiro and ESP are seeking to engage development finance institutions, impact investors, governments and commercial partners to facilitate access to financing, strengthen training and expand commercial opportunities.

Through Women in E-Mobility, both partners aim to demonstrate how the transition to cleaner transport can also encourage women’s entrepreneurship, create jobs and support economic development across Africa.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Spiro.

 

 




 

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Venezuela’s Revised Hydrocarbons Law Ties Investor Terms to Asset Type

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Etu Energias

New contract models and tiered fiscal rates give companies several routes into Venezuela, each matched to a different class of upstream asset

CARACAS, Venezuela, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ –Venezuela’s amended Organic Hydrocarbons Law has opened several distinct routes into the country’s oil and gas sector, each suited to a different type of asset and a different appetite for operational control. Heavy-oil acreage in the Orinoco Belt, mature onshore fields, offshore gas and refining are all available to international capital, and Venezuela Energy Week (VEW) 2027 will bring the companies weighing those options to Caracas to negotiate directly with PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons.

 




 
 

The government made its pitch in Cape Town, South Africa last week, where Vice Minister of Commercial Policy Ricardo Gomez presented 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 193 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at the Venezuela Global Investment Forum during African Energy Week (AEW) 2026. “The opportunities extend from upstream projects to downstream and refining,” he said, as PDVSA works toward its target of 105 definitive oil contracts by year-end.

Participation Contracts

The most direct route is the hydrocarbon productive participation contract (CPPH). Under it, a Venezuela-domiciled company operates a designated area at its own cost and risk for 25 years. With ministry approval, it can also market its share of production. Eni moved its Junín-5 heavy-oil field onto the model in September. The Italian company left its minority joint venture position to become exclusive operator of an asset holding 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place.

Joint Ventures

Companies preferring a partnership can enter a restructured joint venture with PDVSA. The state company keeps majority ownership, but can now hand operational management and marketing rights to its international partners. Mature fields are open through either structure, and their existing wells and infrastructure offer a quicker path to revenue. GeoPark took the contract route at the Bare field – a heavy-oil asset in the Orinoco Belt – under a 25-year agreement. It plans to reactivate up to 1,100 wells and lift output to around 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2038.

Infrastructure Contracts

Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive

Direct ministerial contracts and strategic alliances cover oilfield services and infrastructure. Projects on offer include pipeline rehabilitation, export terminals and refinery upgrades. Domestic refineries currently process 350,000 bpd, and PDVSA aims to raise throughput to as much as 600,000 bpd in 2027.

Offshore Gas Follows Its Own Licensing Track

Offshore gas is awarded through a separate licensing process. bp, a Gold Sponsor of VEW 2027, operates the second phase of the cross-border Loran field. It holds the license in equal shares with Abu Dhabi’s XRG and Qatar’s UCC Oil and Gas Holding.

Tiered Fiscal Terms Support Investment Across the Value Chain

Each route to investment sits within a revised fiscal regime. Regulations published in July cap royalties at 30% and the integrated hydrocarbons tax at 15%, with combined rates of 20% for greenfield projects, 25% for extra-heavy oil, 30% for non-producing brownfields and 35% for producing brownfields. Qualifying offshore projects and developments incorporating upgrading or refining infrastructure may receive reductions of up to five percentage points.

“Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive,” Scott Gilbert, Non-Executive Chairman of Apertura Energy, told the AEW forum.

Companies entering through a CPPH will need a locally incorporated entity, and securing marketing authorization early gives operators greater control over revenue. U.S. companies also structure contracts around the conditions attached to Treasury general licenses, which govern how payments and contract law are handled in deals with PDVSA.

VEW 2027 will put those terms on the table in Caracas, with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and PDVSA, both patrons of the event, meeting investors across two conference days and a day of site visits. By February, PDVSA’s year-end contracting drive is expected to have produced additional agreements, giving investors a clearer picture of how the revised contractual and fiscal frameworks are being applied in practice.

VEW 2027 takes place February 22–25 at the Simon Bolivar Convention Center in Caracas. Organized by Energy Capital & Power and taking place under the patronage of Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, VEW is the country’s flagship oil and gas investment platform. To register or learn more about sponsorship and speaking opportunities, visit www.VenezuelaEnergyWeek.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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Afreximbank approves US$975 million facility for the Management Buy-Out of Oryx Energies

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The transaction marks a major step in strengthening Africa’s energy security and demonstrates the growing capacity of African financial institutions to support Africa’s industrial future with African capital

CAIRO, Egypt, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has disbursed a landmark US$ 975 million financing facility to part-finance the Management Buy-Out of Oryx Energies SA (OESA), the holding company of Addax Energy SA, bringing one of the largest and longest-established independent providers of energy products and services in Africa under majority African ownership for the first time.

 




 
 

The transaction marks a major step in strengthening Africa’s energy security and demonstrates the growing capacity of African financial institutions to support Africa’s industrial future with African capital. The acquisition offers the continent an opportunity to retain economic value, pivot toward energy sovereignty, and align resources with Africa’s development agenda.

This financing also builds on Afreximbank’s broader support for Africa’s energy sector, including investments in upstream production and refining capacity. It reflects the Bank’s commitment to providing appropriately structured financing that enables African businesses to strengthen their operations, develop energy infrastructure and expand trade across the continent. Afreximbank acted as sole lender, facility agent, security trustee and escrow agent for the transaction.

This transaction advances Afreximbank’s mandate to drive the structural transformation of African economies

Speaking on the Management Buy-Out, Mr. Moussa Diao, CEO of Oryx Energies SA, said:

“This management buy-out marks an important milestone in the history of Oryx Energies and the continuation of a journey that our management team has been part of for many years. It also reflects the strength of experienced African leadership and its ability to guide established businesses towards new opportunities. It provides an opportunity to build on the strong foundations of the business, drawing on our longstanding experience and deep understanding of African energy markets. Our ambition remains to strengthen our activities in energy trading and infrastructure development across Africa.”

Mr. Diao noted that the transaction would not have been possible without the confidence and support of Afreximbank, whose involvement reflects confidence not only in the management team and the business, but also in the opportunities that Africa continues to offer. It further demonstrates the increasingly important role of African financial institutions in supporting established African businesses and enabling their continued development.

Commenting on the transaction, Dr. George Elombi, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, said:

“This transaction advances Afreximbank’s mandate to drive the structural transformation of African economies. Through the Management Buy-Out of Oryx Energies SA’s trading and distribution business, we have secured a strategic platform to deepen Africa’s energy industrial ecosystem, strengthen energy infrastructure and capture more value from the continent’s abundant natural resources. It will also promote greater African ownership and participation in development by empowering local entrepreneurs, expanding local value creation, building capacity, creating jobs and retaining more economic value on the continent.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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