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Global retail media ad market nears $200bn but its gold-rush era wanes as search gives way to display

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WARC

WARC releases The Future of Commerce Media 2025 examining trends, advertising investment and the impact of AI on retail media

4 November 2025 – The global retail media market retains significant momentum, with ad investment projected to surpass $200bn by 2027, per WARC Media. However, underlying this growth is an evolving industry. As brands consolidate their ad spend across fewer retail media networks and sponsored search growth slows, retailers must reinvent themselves as ‘full-funnel’ platforms offering granular display and off-site solutions, whilst preparing for the impacts of agentic commerce and AI.

Alex Brownsell, Head of Content, WARC Media, says: “Retail media has evolved from a US and China-driven trend into a global phenomenon, with European spend now growing at double the rate of the broader digital advertising market. As the sector expands beyond traditional sponsored search into visual display, audio, social, and television partnerships, it has never been more important for advertisers to have clarity on the scale and the suitability of the commerce media opportunity.”

The Future of Commerce Media 2025 examines key trends, ad investment and the impact of AI that will drive the future of retail media

Retail Media ad market nears $200bn

According to the latest WARC Media forecast, worldwide investment with retail media networks (RMNs) is set to reach $174.9bn this year, up 13.7% year-on-year, before rising a further 12.4% in 2026 to reach $196.7bn, representing 16% of all ad spend.

However, topline growth rates are steadily slowing towards single-digit levels – from 38.6% in 2021 to a forecast growth rate of 11.6% in 2027.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, says: “Retail media is rapidly evolving from a lower-funnel, search-dominated channel into a full-funnel proposition. Display advertising currently represents less than 30% of total on-site retail media spend, however, this balance is poised to shift as retail media becomes more integrated with brand digital budgets. Much may depend on the adoption of agentic AI, which threatens the high human traffic volumes that have monetised the retail media networks to date.”

A closer look at the retail media ad spend shows that:

Retail media ad investment is forecast to overtake combined linear and connected TV spend in 2026.
Spending growth from endemic brands (i.e. advertised products which are sold directly by a retailer) is decelerating.
Retail media ad spend for technology and electronics brands, the largest category, is forecast to reach $32.2bn globally in 2026, up 15.4% year-on-year.
Future growth is likely to come from display and off-site. In the first half of 2025, UK advertiser investment with display retail media increased 41.6% year-on-year, compared to a 35.6% rise in search retail media ad spend.
Quick-commerce (q-commerce) is a key area of expansion, especially in Asian markets. Instacart, Uber, Delivery Hero and DoorDash each boast annual ad businesses worth more than $1bn.
Scale will be a major determinant of retail media networks (RMN) viability in a decelerating market, as brands become more discerning about where to place commerce media investments.
Tariff concerns boosted retail media spend in H1 2025, particularly in Europe, as brands pulled budgets forward in fear of disruptions.

Commerce media is emerging as a full-funnel proposition

Commerce media is emerging as a full-funnel solution, with more ad formats and channels to complement granular first-party data. A recent survey by ad-tech company Infillion found that two in five (40%) of agency-side executives who buy retail media see it as a full-funnel solution, and another 7% agreed it is an upper-funnel opportunity.

But new strategies and definitions of success will be needed to help this channel escape from a tight focus on narrow, lower-funnel conversion and from relying on siloed metrics like ROAS.

There are a growing number of retail media channels and ad formats that can support truly full-funnel strategies. CTV, off-site, digital out-of-home, and in-store advertising can enable brands to execute full-funnel strategies that bridge digital and physical shopping experiences.

Best practices from other channels, especially around the need to use more media options and run longer campaigns, also apply to retail media.

Amazon aspires to dominate open web advertising

Amazon, the world’s largest commerce media seller, continues to dominate the commerce media landscape, maintaining 15% year-on-year growth, per WARC Media, through its full-funnel expansion and strategic demand-side-platform (DSP) partnerships.

Inventory partners now include Roku, enabling advertisers to reach an estimated 80m US connected TV households, and big hitters like Disney, Netflix, Spotify and Microsoft. Amazon claims its ad-supported monthly reach in the US has tipped over 300 million, while eight in 10 UK households can be reached with Amazon DSP.

Research by Skai found that more than 20% of all ad investment with Amazon is now allocated to its demand-side-platform (DSP) – double the share recorded two years ago – as advertisers look for greater efficiency.

Agentic AI commerce arrives

Agentic AI commerce – shopping powered by AI agents – is generating significant hype as the future of online shopping. The total addressable market for agentic commerce has an estimated value of $136bn in 2025 and has been forecast to grow to hit a potential $1.7trn by 2030, according to Edgar, Dunn & Company.

Test-and-learn strategies could be useful, but it will be essential to meet real consumer needs, not just develop new tech tools with no strategic purpose. The lessons of adapting to past innovations can be put to good use in thinking about how, when and where to potentially deploy agentic commerce

When using agentic tools, it is important to view results in a holistic way. Narrow metrics are not reliable success indicators. Whilst it could be tempting to over-credit AI tools for sales, many inputs, from brand equity to emotion-led creative and seasonality, also have a role.

The Future of Commerce Media 2025 is based on data and insights from WARC and external research. WARC members can read the full report. A deep-dive podcast into the report will follow.

 

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ACG CEO Paulo J. Cruz to Speak at the Angola Access & Investment Conference 2026 in Luanda on How Sport and Entertainment Districts Can Drive Inclusive Economic Growth Across Africa

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Cruz joins heads of state, ministers, ambassadors, and CEOs from over 60 international markets at one of Angola’s flagship investment conferences, connecting sport infrastructure to job creation, accessibility, and sustainable development

LUANDA, Angola, October 14, 2026/APO Group/ –African Collaborations Group (ACG) (www.ACGafrica.com), the leading strategic project origination and collaboration platform focused on the industrialisation of sport in Africa through the origination of bankable sport and entertainment district ecosystems, today announced that its CEO, Paulo J. Cruz, will speak at the Angola Access & Investment Conference 2026 (AAIC) (www.aaic.ao) in Luanda, Angola, from 14 to 17 October 2026.

 




 
 

The AAIC is organised by Expo Connect Angola in partnership with Skyliam Properties, the Cópia Group, and Angolan Business Beyond Borders, with the support of the Angola-Mozambique Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCIAM) and the Angolan Ministry of Tourism and the Ministry of Telecommunications, Information Technologies, and Social Communication. The conference brings together heads of state, ministers, ambassadors, CEOs, investors, development banks, and business leaders from over 60 international markets.

Mr Cruz will address how ACG’s origination of integrated sport and entertainment districts contributes directly to inclusive economic growth. His intervention will focus on how sport infrastructure, when designed as a financially self-sustaining urban ecosystem, becomes a catalyst for large-scale job creation, skills development, accessible infrastructure, and long-term economic diversification.

Sport infrastructure has the power to be one of the most inclusive economic assets a country can build

The AAIC’s focus on accessibility and inclusion aligns directly with ACG’s approach to sport and entertainment district development. A Victory District™ is designed from inception to serve the widest possible community: creating permanent employment across dozens of professions, providing professional sport training facilities for young athletes, and generating economic activity that benefits surrounding neighbourhoods year-round.

“Sport infrastructure has the power to be one of the most inclusive economic assets a country can build,” said Paulo J. Cruz, CEO of ACG. “A Victory District™ does not just create stadiums. It creates thousands of permanent jobs, from hospitality to broadcast production, from sport coaching to facility management. It creates training pathways for young athletes. And it creates an urban ecosystem that generates economic activity 365 days a year. That is inclusive growth in practice, not in theory. I am honoured to share that vision at the AAIC alongside some of Africa’s most influential investors and decision-makers.”

The AAIC programme includes official MoU signing ceremonies, B2B investment rounds, VIP executive networking with senior government and business leaders across 10 dedicated Business Lounges, and the inauguration of Angola’s first assistive technology factory. The conference covers priority sectors including energy, mining, accessible tourism, agriculture, logistics, health, and infrastructure.

ACG’s Victory District™ framework is designed to originate integrated, mixed-use sport and entertainment districts that move beyond single-venue development models. Each district combines stadiums, indoor arenas, training academies, hotels, conference centres, retail, entertainment, residential, and commercial space within a single masterplanned development, financed by private and institutional capital without reliance on public subsidy.

Mr Cruz brings more than 28 years of experience across Africa, the Middle East, and Europe in originating, structuring, and delivering large-scale infrastructure, urbanisation, and real estate development initiatives. Prior to ACG, he served as Senior Vice President at DAMAC Group, the largest private real estate developer in the Middle East, and as Group CEO of LandAfrique, a pan-African development platform focused on industrial parks, infrastructure, housing, and power projects across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Collaborations Group (ACG).

 

 




 

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Venezuelan Oil and Gas Opportunities Take Center Stage at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026

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The country is promoting new hydrocarbons contracts, upstream and refining opportunities, and technical partnerships with Africa to attract investment and strengthen local energy sector capabilities

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, October 14, 2026/APO Group/ –Venezuela is seeking to attract international investment into its oil and gas sector while building stronger energy partnerships with African countries. Revised hydrocarbon legislation offers new entry routes for private operators, while cooperation on technical training could help African markets draw on Venezuela’s industry expertise. These opportunities featured at the Venezuela Global Investment Forum during African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town.

 




 
 

Ricardo Gomez, Venezuela’s Vice Minister of Commercial Policy, outlined the country’s investment proposition, highlighting 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 193 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

“Venezuela combines a large hydrocarbon resource base with refining infrastructure and a market that needs reliable energy,” he said. “The opportunities extend from upstream projects to downstream and refining.”

The country’s amended Organic Hydrocarbons Law introduces new ways for international companies to enter the market. Hydrocarbon production participation contracts allow private operators to manage designated assets, oversee operations and market production under negotiated terms. Agreements can extend for 25 years, offering a longer investment horizon for field development and rehabilitation.

Restructured joint venture companies provide another route, retaining majority state ownership while allowing international partners to take on operational responsibilities through approved agreements. Direct ministerial contracts and strategic alliances offer additional opportunities in field redevelopment, oilfield services and infrastructure.

Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive

Potential investments span heavy-oil production in the Orinoco Belt, mature onshore fields, offshore gas, pipeline rehabilitation, export terminals and refinery upgrades. Venezuela’s target of signing 105 definitive oil contracts by year-end reflects its wider effort to attract operators and accelerate project development.

Scott Gilbert, CEO and Executive Director of Corcel Plc and Non-Executive Chairman of Apertura Energy, highlighted investor interest in the changing regulatory environment. “Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive,” he said.

Alongside these commercial opportunities, Venezuela is promoting its technical expertise through the Venezuelan University of Hydrocarbons (UVH). Celia Bejarano, the university’s President, explained how the institution trains engineers and geologists in geophysics, reservoir engineering, well management, natural gas and petrochemicals.

“The Venezuelan University of Hydrocarbons was created to deliver a specialized institution where the country can train its own recruits to develop its own premier resources,” Bejarano said.

Through its Africa-Venezuela Energy Partnership with the African Energy Chamber (AEC), UVH is advancing technical training, knowledge exchange and workforce development. The initiative could help African energy projects apply Venezuela’s experience in heavy-oil production and offshore engineering while strengthening local capabilities. Rene Awambeng, founder and managing partner of Premier Invest, highlighted this opportunity for African developers.

“When we are developing our assets here, we always import talent,” he said. “With the Venezuelan University of Hydrocarbons, we can actually leverage Venezuela’s immense experience to support local content development here in Africa.”

Also speaking during the discussion, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC, emphasized the strategic value of closer ties between the regions. “Our energy industry has an amazing ally in Venezuela,” he said, describing the country as “open for business and ready to partner with Africa.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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Sonangol Cites Commitment to Privatization as Company Charts Next Growth Phase

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Katambi

Katambi-2 appraisal, infill drilling and downstream construction frame the national oil company’s priorities as it marks its 50th anniversary

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, October 14, 2026/APO Group/ –Angolan National Oil Company Sonangol is advancing plans for an initial public offering (IPO) while expanding its upstream portfolio and investing in Angola’s domestic refining capacity, as the national oil company charts its next phase of growth following its 50th anniversary in 2026. Speaking at the opening ceremony of African Energy Week (AEW) 2026, Executive Board Member Osvaldo Inácio reaffirmed the company’s commitment to privatization, alongside efforts to increase production, progress new developments and translate Angola’s oil and gas resources into broader economic growth.

 




 
 

 

“We want to make sure that we do it in a way that, when you buy your shares, you are happy with the performance of those shares. We are doing the internal work required to make sure that when we get to that point, it’s a successful story,” he said.

We want to make sure that we do it in a way that, when you buy your shares, you are happy with the performance of those shares

Sonangol’s 50th anniversary comes as Angola’s NOC develops opportunities across exploration, producing assets and domestic processing. Its next investment phase requires capital and technical partners to turn appraisal results into developments while delivering refinery infrastructure and expanding the value retained from Angola’s oil and gas production.

“We are thinking about what the next 50 years will be like, focusing on producing to transform. We are not only looking at managing resources but how we translate those resources into overall development in the country,” he said.

Sonangol’s September account of its Katambi-2 work in Block 24 described a completed formation test in a non-associated gas reservoir, providing further evidence for assessment of the field’s development potential. In its producing portfolio, the company and its partners also reported approximately 100 meters of net oil pay at PAC 416 in Block 3/05, as part of a program intended to increase operated production. The results give Sonangol a technical basis for future investment, while appraisal, development design and commercial arrangements remain necessary steps.

“If you look at our portfolio, we have both operated and non-operated assets. The focus is on making sure we are doing everything we can to make sure those assets are still producing at the highest rate possible. New developments such as Block 3/05 are advancing. We are also part of Kaminho with TotalEnergies,” Inácio shared.

Downstream, Angola’s government reported in September that the Lobito refinery was approximately 26% physically complete, with around $1.6 billion invested and completion envisaged for 2029. A potential petrochemical complex was under study. Alongside Cabinda’s initial 30,000-bpd refining phase, Lobito gives Sonangol’s diversification program a concrete industrial focus, with financing, construction progress and product marketing central to the next stage.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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