Connect with us
Anglostratits

Business

Global advertising spend to top $1trn for first time this year

Published

2 years ago

on

WARC forecast

Projected 10.5% rise in global spend this year represents a 2.3 percentage point (pp) upgrade to WARC forecast, reflecting the uptake of AI-enabled media tools

North America to grow 8.6% this year to $348bn, APAC market worth $272bn but growth cools to just 2.0%, Europe forecast to rise 5.0% to $165bn, Latin America +6.2% to $32.1bn, Middle East largely unaffected by looming threat of regional conflict +4.2% to $12.6bn

US political spend set to reach $15.8bn this year; $3.6bn spent across social platforms with growth rapidly increasing since change of Democratic candidate

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 – A Decade of Consolidation

22 August 2024 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is on course to grow 10.5% this year to a total of $1.07trn – the best performance in six years if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded.

Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.2%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global ad market worth $1.23trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade, and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014. Just three companies – Meta, Amazon and Alphabet – account for more than 70% of this incremental spend. This trifecta is expected to attract 43.6% of all advertising spend this year, rising to a share over 46% by 2026.

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets. New for this edition, WARC is now leveraging an advanced neural network machine learning model which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points spanning macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.

The new projections show that ‘pureplay’ (i.e. online only) internet companies are set to record a 14.0% rise in advertising revenue this year, reaching a total of $735.7bn. In total, almost nine in every ten (88.5%) incremental dollars spent on advertising this year will go to online-only businesses, with half (52.9%) being paid to Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Taken together, pureplay platforms are set to account for over 70% of all advertising spend worldwide next year.

Retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%) and search (+12.1%) are set to lead digital growth in 2024, with these three sectors alone accounting for over 85% of online spend and almost three in every five (58.7%) incremental dollars spent on advertising worldwide this year. All are benefiting from the increased adoption of AI-driven ad services and growing appreciation of first party data.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research says: “The global ad market has doubled in size over the last decade, with advertising investment growing almost three times faster than economic output since 2014. Three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – have been the largest beneficiaries from this period of expansion, attracting seven in ten incremental ad dollars over the last ten years.

“With retail media expected to lead ad spend growth over the coming years, and with new, diverse players emerging in ad selling – from Uber to Chase – we are once again seeing the value of first party data in targeting the right person with the right message at the right time. Such data, combined with new AI enhancements, will constitute the fabric of the advertising industry for the next decade and beyond.”

Key findings outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 are:

MEDIA TRENDS: Global ad spend is forecast to rise 10.5% this year to a total of $1.07trn, and then 7.2% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026; social, retail media and CTV to lead growth

At $241.8bn in 2024, social media is the largest single advertising channel measured in WARC’s study, having overtaken search (excl. retail media) for the first time last year. It accounts for 22.6% of all global ad spend this year and is forecast to rise to a share of 23.6% by the end of 2026.

Within social, Meta is the largest individual player, commanding 62.6% of the market this year. Its share is being eroded however, most notably by Douyin and TikTok owner Bytedance, which now draws a fifth (20.1%) of all social spend, up from a share of just 9.3% five years ago. TikTok is on course to account for over half of its parent-company’s advertising revenue for the first time next year with estimated ad billings over $28bn, though uncertainty remains around the platform’s future in the US – its largest market by far with 170m monthly active users.

The main social platforms have reported a fillip from new, AI-enabled services during the first half of 2024, a trend that is set to underpin the advertising industry at large over the coming years. Over half of all AI-enabled spend – defined as involving some form of recommendation algorithm, natural language processing or search optimisation – ​today occurs in the social media sector.

Search advertising (excluding retail media) accounts for 21.8% of global advertising spend, at a forecast total of $223.8bn this year. Its share has consistently grown since WARC began monitoring the sector in 2013, though it is set to plateau in 2026 as more purchase journeys begin in retail media environments and social commerce begins to realise its potential outside of Asia. Another potential headwind may be the rise of AI-driven search, and uncertainty around what the ad experience will look like for consumers more familiar with text-based search experiences.

Google accounts for more than four-fifths (84.0%) of the global search market, with its paid search revenue set to top $200bn for the first time next year. Google’s share rises to over 90% if China is excluded, a position of dominance which this month led a US judge to rule the company in breach of antitrust laws.

Retail media is expected to account for 14.3% of global ad spend this year – a total of $152.6bn – which is double the share recorded in 2019 before the pandemic contributed to an exceptional growth spurt. Indeed, retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing channel over at least the next three years.

Amazon is the dominant global player, with anticipated ad revenue (excluding Twitch and Prime Video) of $55.9bn equivalent to more than a third (36.6%) of all retail media spend and over two-thirds excluding China this year. While competition is heating up, such billings eclipse the near $4bn Walmart is due to net in 2024 and the $1bn ad business Uber is building, while Amazon is also due to have surpassed Alibaba by ad revenue for the first time this year.

CTV is on course to be worth $35.3bn to advertisers this year, roughly a quarter of the size of the linear TV market. Growth is rapid; CTV spend is expected to rise 19.6% and is set to account for two-thirds of all growth in the video (linear + CTV) market this year, and all growth in 2025. By 2026, CTV is projected to account for almost a quarter (23.9%) of all video ad spend, at $46.3bn.

Netflix is the largest streaming provider globally, with 277.6m subscribers worldwide in Q2 2024. However, its global advertising business is unlikely to grow too far beyond $1bn this year. YouTube’s ad income – which we do not yet classify as CTV – is expected to rise 14.3% to $36.0bn this year. Further, YouTube’s ad revenue is set to top $45bn globally by 2026, almost as much as the entirety of the global CTV industry at that time.

Legacy media, encompassing print publishing, broadcast radio, linear TV, cinema and out of home (OOH), now collectively account for a quarter (25.3%) of total advertising spend, having recorded a dip in share in each of the last 15 years.

Advertising spend on legacy media is expected to total $270.5bn this year, representing a 1.5% rise from 2023. Much of this growth can be attributed to US political spending; with this removed legacy media are, collectively, set to record a 0.5% decline in advertiser investment in 2024.

Linear TV spend is expected to grow by 1.9% this year, its best performance since 2014 if the post-Covid recovery year of 2021 (+12.7%) were excluded. The market is flat (+0.1%), however, excluding US political spend. Out of home (+7.2%) and cinema (+6.1%) will see some growth this year, though radio (-2.3%) is expected to record its third consecutive year of decline. Newsbrands (-3.3%) and magazine brands (-3.4%) are also due to see losses across print and online editions.

PRODUCT SECTOR TRENDS: Technology & Electronics (+13.2%), Alcoholic Drinks (+12.2%) and Clothing & Accessories (+11.1%) the fastest-growing consumer sectors next year. US political spend is expected to reach $15.8bn this year; over a fifth spent on social.

Advertising spend during the 2024 US presidential election is on course to top $15bn for the first time, with an expected total of $15.8bn up by over 40% on the previous cycle in 2020. Spend had been lagging the 2020 total earlier this year, but the surprise decision to change the Democratic candidate has led to an influx in spending in order to reposition the new ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. This shift is perhaps most pronounced online: political spending on social media is tracking 27.4% higher in Q3 2024 versus Q2 2024, with social spending by both main parties on course to reach $3.6bn this year.

Retail – the largest of the 19 categories monitored by WARC – is anticipated to record a 2.5% dip in global spend this year. Our definition of this sector is broad however, ranging from quick service retail (QSR) to grocery to department stores to online retailers, such as Temu. The latter is expected to continue investing heavily in advertising, particularly in Europe this year, but it is an exception – the longer tail of retailers are facing business pressures from soft consumer demand.

Technology & Electronics – the third-largest product sector monitored by WARC – is expected to post the fastest growth this year, with incremental spend of $17.0bn worldwide. The sector had recorded declines in advertising spend in both 2022 and 2023, as central banks raised interest rates sharply in an attempt to stymie inflation, exposing over-leveraged tech startups in particular.

Technology & Electronics (+13.2%), Alcoholic Drinks (+12.2%) and Clothing & Accessories (+11.1%) are forecast to lead ad spend growth among consumer-facing products in 2025, though Business & Industrial, the second-largest category, is expected to be the fastest-growing category overall next year (+18.2%), as budgets unlock during a period of comparatively favourable economic and trading conditions.

The Nicotine category is also growing rapidly, albeit from a low base; it is the smallest of the 19 product categories monitored by WARC at $13.0bn in 2024. Spend is set to grow 56% over the three years to 2026 – reaching a total of $17.2bn – driven almost entirely by vape products which skew heavily towards online advertising.

REGIONAL TRENDS: North America to grow 8.6% this year to $348bn, APAC growth cools to just 2.0% owing to stronger dollar, Europe is forecast to rise 5.0% to $164.9bn, while Middle East ad markets are largely unaffected by looming threat of regional conflict

North America is on track to be the fastest-growing region this year – inflated by the US presidential elections – with ad spend rising 8.6% to a total of $347.5bn. US ad spend is expected to grow 8.9% this year (+4.0% excluding political spend, more than double the 1.4% growth rate recorded in 2023) to a total of $330.8bn. A further rise, of 3.6%, is forecast next year, by when the US ad market should be worth over $342bn. The Canadian ad market is due to grow 7.5% to CAD23.3bn ($16.8bn) this year.

Latin America (+6.2% to $32.1bn in 2024) then follows, with its largest market, Brazil, forecast to record local currency growth of 9.6% this year to a total of BRL85.7bn ($14.8bn) – an acceleration from the 7.5% rise recorded last year. Our forecasts suggest that online advertising will account for over half (50.4%) of the Brazilian ad market for the first time this year.

APAC’s (+2.0% to $272.0bn this year) largest market – China – is projected to see ad market growth of 6.4% this year to RMB1.32trn ($181.2bn), an easing from the 9.3% rise recorded in 2023 as consumer demand remains soft and economic expansion lags stubbornly behind the target. Pureplay internet will account for over 86% of the Chinese ad market in 2024, though social media (+10.5%) and retail media (+8.2%) will expand at a slower rate this year than last.

When measured in local currency – so as to exclude the distorting effect of exchange rate fluctuations – we see that India will be the fastest growing key market this year, with advertiser spend rising 11.9% to INR1.08trn ($12.8bn).

Japan – the fourth-largest ad market in the world – is forecast to grow by 5.2% this year to JPY5.83trn ($36.9bn), though this equates to a 6.3% decline when measured in US dollars due to the Yen falling to a decade-long low. Australia’s ad market is expanding by 2.0%, a modest but welcome change of fortunes following flat (+0.3%) growth in 2023, while Indonesia is expected to achieve 7.8% growth this year.

Advertising spend across Europe is forecast to rise 5.0% this year to $164.9bn. The UK, the largest European market by spend, is expected to post an 8.0% rise to £38.5bn ($47.5bn) in 2024 per market data from the AA/WARC Expenditure Report. On the European mainland, France (+8.0%), Italy (+5.4%) and Germany (+4.0%) are all expected to see healthy gains this year, with the former in particular benefiting from increased advertising activity around the Paris Olympics and Paralympics in the third quarter.

Brand spend in the Middle East and Africa is currently on course to rise by 4.2% to $12.6bn this year, though fortunes are mixed. African spend is expected to be flat (+0.2%), following a 15.7% decline in 2023 and 1.4% dip in 2022. South Africa, the region’s largest market, is expected to see its ad market grow 6.0% this year but this translates to a 1.1% increase when measured in dollars owing to a weak Rand by historical measures. Ad spend in the Middle East is set to rise 8.1% this year but that is subject to change should conflict spread beyond Gaza to the wider region.

A complimentary article by WARC’s James McDonald, author of the report, is available to read here. WARC subscribers can read the article and access additional data here.

Related Topics:
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Business

What Angola’s Oil Reform Story Can Teach Libya’s Next Phase of Growth

Published

2 days ago

on

July 3, 2026

By

African Energy Chamber

As Libya builds on its production recovery, “Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola” highlights how regulatory reform and policy certainty can help translate resource wealth into long-term upstream investment

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, July 3, 2026/APO Group/ –Libya’s upstream sector has staged a remarkable operational recovery, with crude production reaching approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) – its highest level in more than a decade. As the country works to sustain this momentum, strengthening the investment environment will be just as important as increasing output to attract long-term upstream capital.

 

While Angola and Libya have distinct political and institutional landscapes, both rank among Africa’s leading hydrocarbon producers with significant resource potential. In Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, examines how Angola strengthened its investment climate through a series of regulatory reforms. Although focused on Angola, the book offers valuable insights into how policy certainty can complement geological potential in attracting investment.

A defining moment in Angola’s upstream transformation came in 2019, when the country separated Sonangol’s commercial responsibilities from regulatory oversight through the establishment of the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG). The reform streamlined decision-making, improved transparency and helped reinforce investor confidence, supporting an upstream investment pipeline expected to exceed $60 billion between 2025 and 2030.

Geology alone does not attract investment

As Libya continues advancing its upstream sector, experiences from markets such as Angola illustrate how clear institutional frameworks can strengthen investor confidence and support project development over the long term. Building on recent production gains, continued efforts to enhance regulatory clarity and streamline investment processes could further reinforce Libya’s position as a leading destination for upstream capital.

Angola also introduced a permanent offer licensing mechanism, allowing companies to negotiate available acreage outside traditional bid rounds. The approach has provided greater flexibility for investors while ensuring opportunities remain available beyond periodic licensing rounds. As Libya re-engages international investors through its renewed licensing program, flexible mechanisms that encourage continuous investment could help broaden participation over time.

Beyond licensing reform, Angola introduced policies to extend production from mature offshore assets while implementing dedicated natural gas legislation that supported new discoveries, including Gajajeira-01 gas exploration well, and accelerated gas commercialization through greater regulatory clarity and clearly defined investor rights.

Libya likewise possesses substantial undeveloped oil and gas resources. As the country advances future upstream developments, predictable frameworks for brownfield redevelopment, marginal fields and gas monetization could help unlock additional investment while supporting domestic energy security and long-term production growth.

“Geology alone does not attract investment. Investors commit capital where regulation is predictable, contracts are respected and governments compete for long-term partnerships. Angola’s experience shows that reform is not about giving resources away – it is about creating the confidence that allows capital to develop them,” says Ayuk.

Libya’s production recovery demonstrates the resilience and potential of its energy sector. As the country looks toward its next phase of growth, Angola’s experience underscores how regulatory reform and policy certainty can complement resource wealth, helping translate production gains into sustained investment and long-term sector development.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Continue Reading

Energy

Libya Energy & Economic Summit: Over $20B in Deals Highlight Renewed Global Confidence

Published

2 days ago

on

July 3, 2026

By

Etu Energias

The annual Libya Energy & Economic Summit drives multi-billion-dollar oil, gas and renewable deals, fostering international partnerships to expand Libya’s energy infrastructure and investment pipeline

TRIPOLI, Libya, July 3, 2026/APO Group/ –The Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) has established itself as Libya’s premier gateway for upstream capital, consistently unlocking multi-billion-dollar oil, gas and renewable energy agreements since its 2021 launch in Tripoli. The summit has become a central mechanism for turning policy momentum into bankable energy projects.

 

The upcoming 2027 edition of LEES will build directly on this trajectory, expanding Libya’s investment pipeline across hydrocarbons, renewables and infrastructure while deepening international participation following record deal activity in 2026.

In 2026, the fourth edition of LEES delivered its most significant upstream package to date: a $20 billion, 25-year Waha Concession amendment between Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and TotalEnergies alongside ConocoPhillips. The agreement targets a production increase to 850,000 barrels per day through redevelopment of mature assets including North Zella and NC-98, fully financed through foreign capital under an enhanced recovery and infrastructure upgrade framework.

https://apo-opa.co/3QZPuw6

At LEES 2026, NOC Chairman Masoud Suleman signed a MoU with Chevron to evaluate oil and gas exploration opportunities, field development and enhanced recovery initiatives, later expanding cooperation to assess unconventional resources across the Sirte, Murzuq and Ghadames basins. Suleman also oversaw a letter of intent between NOC subsidiary NAGECO and TGS to expand multi-client seismic acquisition programs and generate high-resolution subsurface data supporting future licensing rounds and exploratory drilling.

At the government level, Minister of Oil and Gas Dr. Khalifa Abdulsadek formalized a Libya-Egypt petroleum cooperation MoU aimed at strengthening technical collaboration, infrastructure development and capacity building across the oil, gas and mining sectors. During the summit, the Libyan Council for Oil, gas and Renewable Energy signed a strategic partnership with Business France focused on expanding private-sector participation and supporting Libyan SMEs.

https://apo-opa.co/4eUoPZP

LEES has become the decisive platform for converting Libya’s energy potential into structured, bankable investment opportunities across hydrocarbons and renewables

The 2024 edition of LEES acted as a platform for advancing projects already under development, most notably showcasing progress on TotalEnergies’ 500 MW Sadada solar PV project with the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL), first announced during the inaugural 2021 summit. The project remains a cornerstone of Libya’s renewable energy strategy, supporting grid stabilization and diversification away from oil-dependent power generation in partnership with the Renewable Energy Authority of Libya.

https://apo-opa.co/4vbja7A

Beyond solar, 2024 also formalized Libya’s international upstream reopening through the launch of a national licensing round, drawing qualified interest from majors including Eni, Repsol and BGN Energy. Additional outcomes included exploratory discussions on a Malta-Libya undersea renewable energy interconnector, designed to evaluate cross-Mediterranean power exchange potential and long-term grid export opportunities, reinforcing Libya’s positioning as both a hydrocarbons exporter and emerging regional energy hub.

https://apo-opa.co/445y1Wh

https://apo-opa.co/4f1ytKb

The inaugural LEES 2021 marked Libya’s reintegration into global energy investment flows after a prolonged hiatus, featuring the announcement of TotalEnergies’ 500 MW solar partnership with GECOL and parallel gas-flaring reduction initiatives across western oilfields. Infrastructure-focused agreements, including upgrades linked to the Misrata Free Zone, further supported logistics and export capacity expansion. Initial discussions involving ConocoPhillips, Hess Corporation and other international operators laid the groundwork for subsequent upstream rehabilitation efforts and the wave of large-scale investments that would follow in later editions of the summit.

https://apo-opa.co/4wo8gMX

“LEES has become the decisive platform for converting Libya’s energy potential into structured, bankable investment opportunities across hydrocarbons and renewables,” says James Chester, CEO, Energy Capital & Power. “The 2027 edition will build on this momentum, further accelerating international capital inflows and long-term sector partnerships.”

Join industry leaders at the Libya Energy & Economic Summit 2027 in Tripoli and explore investment opportunities in one of Africa’s most dynamic energy markets. LEES 2027 offers a premier platform for partnerships, innovation and sector growth. Visit www.LibyaSummit.com to secure your participation. To sponsor or participate as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

Continue Reading

Energy

Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo’s (SNPC) Maixent Raoul Ominga to Receive Lifetime Achievement Award at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026

Published

2 days ago

on

July 3, 2026

By

The award recognizes decades of leadership by the SNPC Director General in shaping the company’s growth and investment strategy, while strengthening the Republic of Congo’s position in Africa’s energy landscape

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, July 2, 2026/APO Group/ –Maixent Raoul Ominga, Director General of Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC), has been named the recipient of the Lifetime Achievement Award at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026. The honor recognizes more than two decades of service to Congo’s national oil company and a leadership career that has helped transform SNPC into a stronger, more diversified and increasingly influential energy company.

The Lifetime Achievement Award is the highest distinction presented during the African Energy Awards, held annually as part of AEW. The non-voting category recognizes individuals whose careers have left a lasting mark on Africa’s energy industry through sustained leadership, institutional development, investment promotion and contributions to regional cooperation.

Few leaders know SNPC as intimately as Ominga. Joining the company in 2001 in the finance and accounting department, he steadily rose through the ranks before being appointed Director General in 2018. Reappointed in 2022 and again in 2025 following the adoption of SNPC’s revised corporate statutes, his continued tenure reflects sustained confidence in a leadership style centered on long-term institutional growth, operational discipline and continuity.

Maixent Raoul Ominga represents the kind of steady, visionary leadership that has helped transform SNPC into a more resilient and forward-looking national oil company

Under Ominga’s leadership, SNPC has evolved from a traditional national oil company into a broader energy player with an expanding upstream portfolio and growing regional profile. The company continues to hold interests in many of the Republic of Congo’s largest producing assets while participating in new discoveries that have reinforced the country’s long-term exploration potential.

A defining feature of Ominga’s tenure has been a strategic shift toward long-term value creation through gas monetization. Under his direction, SNPC has played a central role in supporting the Congo LNG project, helping position the Republic of Congo among Africa’s emerging LNG exporters and accelerating the country’s transition toward large-scale gas development.

Institutional transformation has been equally central to his leadership. Ominga has overseen organizational restructuring, strengthened corporate governance and placed greater emphasis on operational performance, while steering SNPC toward increased use of domestic capital markets to reduce reliance on international lenders and strengthen local financial capacity. He has also prioritized workforce development, greater gender inclusion in leadership and the development of internal capabilities supporting gas and new energy initiatives.

His influence has extended well beyond SNPC. A longstanding advocate for stronger collaboration among Africa’s national oil companies, Ominga has consistently promoted regional partnerships, African financing solutions and energy sovereignty as essential to unlocking the continent’s long-term investment potential. This vision has helped elevate both SNPC’s regional profile and the Republic of Congo’s role in Africa’s evolving energy landscape.

Ominga’s leadership has also been recognized beyond the energy sector. In 2026, he was awarded the Gold Medal of the Ligue universelle du bien public, recognizing his leadership, commitment to the public good and contributions to economic and social development. The distinction reflects a leadership philosophy that extends beyond commercial performance, emphasizing institution-building, human capital development and the role of energy in supporting national progress.

“Maixent Raoul Ominga represents the kind of steady, visionary leadership that has helped transform SNPC into a more resilient and forward-looking national oil company,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “His commitment to building local capacity, strengthening governance and positioning Congo’s energy sector for the future makes him a deserving recipient of this year’s Lifetime Achievement Award. We congratulate him on this well-earned recognition.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Continue Reading

Trending