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Global ad market prospects further downgraded as retailers, automakers cut ad budgets and Chinese brands redirect spend due to US trade tariffs

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Global ad market

Growth forecasts for advertising spend have been downgraded further this year (-0.5pp to +6.2%) following an initial $20bn cut in March

Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are expected to cut ad budgets in the wake of mounting tariff pressures on supply chains

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 54.7% excluding China this year – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026

US ad market prospects cut by half a point to +5.2% as Chinese retailers such as Temu and Shein redirect spend to Canada, Australia and Europe

Global ad market growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5% next year, with a total of $1.23trn equivalent to almost $150 per capita

WARC Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025 update: Growth cut amid trade trepidations

12 June 2025 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.2% this year to $1.16trn, a downgrade of half a percentage point (pp) from WARC’s March forecast due to growing market volatility. Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are set to cut ad spend this year, while ad spend growth across technology and CPG brands is muted compared to previous rates.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, says: “The latest downgrade is attributable to a reticence to commit ad budgets across key markets in the second quarter. This cooling is underpinned by tariff trepidations and ebbing business and consumer confidence, prompting advertisers to front-load budgets and reallocate spend geographically, particularly towards Canada, Australia, and Europe.

“Trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies. Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins. Tech firms face growing uncertainty despite continued investment, and CPG brands are leaning into retail media as supply chains come under pressure. Across the board, agility is the new imperative.”

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.

Key media outlook: AI propels Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to 54.7% market share outside of China

Search to account for more than a fifth (21.5%) of the ad market this year, with spend rising 7.4% to $248.6bn despite regulatory threats
Social media – the largest single advertising medium globally – is poised to account for a quarter (25.8%) of all ad spend this year, at a total of $298.3bn
Retail media set to be fastest growing advertising medium this year (+14.4%), though trade disruption threatens ad receipts from consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands

Pure play internet – encompassing social media, retail media, online display, online classified and paid search – grew 11.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to $195.2bn, equivalent to 70.8% of all global ad spend. The growth rate is expected to ease to 9.9% during the second quarter and 8.9% over the second half of the year – to an annual total of $829.2bn (+9.8% vs. 2024).

The pure play internet sector is on course to top $1trn in ad revenue in 2028, by when it would account for almost 80% of all advertising spend. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon’s combined share of advertising spend outside of China is expected to reach 54.7% this year (+1.8pp vs. 2024) with an aggregated total of $524.4bn. This share is set to rise further – to 56.2% – next year.

Within the pure play internet total, search advertising spend is forecast to rise 7.4% this year and 6.8% next, by when the market would be worth $265.5bn – equivalent to 21.5% of all spend, up from 21.2% in 2024.

Within the paid search total, Google’s expected $213.3bn take would account for 85.8% of the market this year. The embedding of artificial intelligence into the search journey stands to disrupt ad revenue models, but Google’s dominance in search advertising will likely persist in the near term, aided by SMEs.

Social media is now set to account for over a quarter of all ad spend this year. A strong first quarter rise of 14.9% precedes an expected slowdown, with growth averaging 11.2% over the coming three quarters as tariffs begin to impact Asian brands disproportionally. The social market is still on track to grow 12.0% to $298.3bn this year.

​​Meta last month outlined plans for an end-to-end AI solution covering the generation of creative, ad placement and performance optimisation – primarily for its long tail of small advertisers rather than large brands. Meta’s ad business is forecast to grow 12.6% to $142.1bn this year, a cooling from the 18.4% rise recorded in 2024.

Retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing medium tracked by WARC this year, with an anticipated rise of 14.4% to a total value of $176.2bn. This represents a 15.2% share of global ad spend this year.

Amazon’s retail media ad business grew 21.0% to $13.3bn during the first quarter, accounting for a third (33.4%) of the global retail media market. WARC projects Amazon’s ad income will grow by 16.1% to $60.6bn this year. A further rise, of 14.9%, is forecast next year, giving Amazon a 35.4% of global retail media spend and 5.7% of all advertising spend worldwide. Like other online retailers, Amazon is exposed to tariffs imposed on its Chinese sellers, thought to be well over half of all vendors on the platform.

Global video advertising spend is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2025 to $183.9bn, equating to 15.9% of all spend this year. The contraction is driven by a continued decline in linear TV, which still represents over three-quarters of the total video market.

Linear TV spend is expected to fall by 6.3% this year – a drop exacerbated by 2024 major sporting and political events. Notably, 2025 marks the first year that retail media will command a greater share of global ad spend than linear TV.

Video-on-demand (VOD) advertising is forecast to rise by 13.2% to $39.9bn, a downgrade from the 15.4% projected in March. Within this, Netflix is due to see ad billings double this year (from a small base) due to the relative resilience of its ad tier during economic downturns.

Key product sector trends: Tariff trepidations hit retailers and automakers

Automotive ad spend down 4.0% this year as manufacturing stalls and key players pare back on brand building
Retailers set to reduce ad spend by 6.1% as margins tighten; US retailers are vulnerable to disruption among Chinese suppliers
Ad growth set to slow markedly among tech & electronic and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands as barriers to trade impair access to components

The automotive industry invested $56.8bn in advertising last year with almost a quarter (22.9%) going to premium video formats. However, budgets are shifting from video towards digital platforms, with automotive spend on social ads surpassing linear TV for the first time in 2025.

Despite WARC’s projected 4.0% cut in automotive advertising spend this year (an improvement on the 7.3% originally projected in March), the sector should rebound next year with a 7.5% rise pushing spend to a total of $58.6bn.

Retail, with projected ad spend of $166.1bn this year (14.3% of the global ad market), faces a fall of 6.1% from 2024 levels. This largely reflects impending US trade tariffs on key goods and raw materials, which are poised to increase costs for global retailers, particularly those heavily reliant on Chinese imports such as Amazon and Walmart.

Retailers are set to accelerate shifts in marketing strategies in response to changing cost structures and consumer behaviour. As predicted in March, large Chinese retailers targeting US consumers – including Temu and Shein – have reallocated advertising spend to other markets such as Canada, Australia and Europe.

The tech and electronics sector is expected to spend $90.3bn on advertising this year. This year-on-year rise of 5.5% represents a cut from our +6.2% forecast in March, and is a sharp slowdown from the 24.3% rise recorded last year. Tariffs are driving the sector to adjust go-to-market strategies, shifting investments toward less-affected regions or different product lines to buffer against hardware margin erosion.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies experienced their weakest first quarter sales revenues since the pandemic. Further, with tariffs reaching as high as 145% for Chinese imports and additional tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, CPG companies are facing major disruption to their established supply chains.

WARC expects core CPG sectors, such as soft drinks (+7.1%), toiletries & cosmetics (+7.2%) and household & domestic (+4.2%) to record growth in advertising spend at a global level this year, though all see a significant slowdown from 2024. Taken together, the CPG sector is expected to increase advertising spend by 6.7% this year to a total of $200.5bn.

Key market outlook: US growth prospects cut as Chinese brands look elsewhere

US ad market expected to post a +5.2% rise this year, less than half that recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and has been cut by half a point since March
Canadian ad spend growth set to ease to 3.5% this year despite some Chinese advertisers redirecting spend from the US
The Chinese ad market continues to struggle with weak domestic demand; growth is set to slow to 7.2% this year
The UK, German, French and Japanese economies are all stalling and present a severe risk of stagflation over the forecast period

WARC’s latest forecast suggests the US ad market will grow 5.2% this year to $451.6bn, half the growth rate recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and representing a 0.5 point downgrade from our March forecast. The US ad market – the largest worldwide with a 39.0% share – faces major headwinds including tariff uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, lower consumer demand and stagflation.

Despite a strong first quarter performance – +7.6% to $105.7bn, boosted by Chinese brands accelerating spend ahead of the anticipated tariff changes – US ad market growth is expected to slow significantly through to year-end.

Chinese brands appear to be redirecting ad spend to Canada to negate US market barriers, yet Canadian ad growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year amid deteriorating economic conditions. The IMF had downgraded Canada’s GDP growth forecast by 0.6pp to 1.4%, with the Bank of Canada projecting growth rate to approximately +0.5% in 2025.

Digital platforms dominate Canada’s media landscape, projected to capture 77.6% of the total market this year. This digital transformation stems from granular targeting capabilities drawing advertisers away from traditional media, with retail media now fuelling additional growth.

China is experiencing significant structural shifts, characterised by increasingly price-conscious consumers and a digital ecosystem dominated by major players including ByteDance (Douyin), Alibaba, and Tencent, creating challenges for smaller platforms. Short-form video has become instrumental in brand promotion in China, while marketers are prioritising performance marketing over brand building initiatives.

Projected US tariffs are expected to dull China’s economic growth by 0.2 points in 2025, creating economic uncertainty and prompting a downward revision of our 2025 advertising growth expectations to 7.2% (from 8.3% in March). The outlook for 2026 has been upgraded to 7.9% growth (from 6.9%), reflecting the online sector’s resilience.

The AA/WARC Expenditure Report forecast for the UK ad market stands at +6.5% in 2025, to a total of £44.3bn ($54.7bn). The highly digitalised UK market sees online ads accounting for over four in five (84.6%) dollars this year, with social (+13.1% this year) and search (+8.2%) fuelling growth despite weak economic prospects.

Germany’s economy is also struggling, at just +0.4% expected growth by the OECD this year following a cut of 0.3pp from its last outlook. WARC forecasts a modest 2.9% rise in German advertising spend to €26.4bn ($29.5bn). Growth in France’s ad market is also set to be muted this year, at +2.7% to €18.8bn ($20.3bn). Japan faces a challenging outlook, too, with advertising spend expected to rise by 3.3% to ¥5.8trn ($39.0bn) this year.

 

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The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) Signs 13 Landmark Agreements to Promote Private Sector Growth in its Member Countries

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The signing of these agreements underscores ICD’s unwavering commitment to fostering prosperity through strategic partnerships and promoting access to finance and financial inclusion in its member countries

BAKU, Azerbaijan , June 25, 2026/APO Group/ –The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) (www.ICD-PS.org), a member of the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group, is pleased to announce the signing of 13 significant financing and strategic cooperation agreements with various counterparts aimed at catalyzing economic development and bolstering private sector growth and initiatives across several member countries in diverse regions around the world. These agreements were signed during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IsDB Group, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, under the theme “Regional Integration for Sustainable Prosperity”, which provided a platform for member countries to advance dialogue and cooperation on regional connectivity, resilience and inclusive growth. The signing of these agreements underscores ICD’s unwavering commitment to fostering prosperity through strategic partnerships and promoting access to finance and financial inclusion in its member countries.

 

In line with its mandate to support private sector growth in its member countries, the ICD and the Azerbaijan Business Development Fund (ABDF) signed a framework agreement to launch a managed Shariah-compliant line of financing program for SMEs during the opening ceremony of the IsDB Group 2026 Annual Meeting’s Private Sector Forum in Baku. Under this framework, the parties are to collaborate in deploying up to AZN 200 million within the next two years. The program introduces a local currency (AZN) financing channel by which, ICD, acting as ABDF’s agent, will blend ABDF’s AZN funds with ICD’s USD, EUR, and AZN resources to support SMEs and private sector growth in Azerbaijan. Through this initiative, the ICD, acting on its own behalf and on behalf of ABDF, will provide either single or multi-currency line of financing facilities to selected partner financial institutions in Azerbaijan for on-ward financing of eligible companies in the country. This arrangement is expected to help mitigate foreign exchange risk that has long hindered the growth of  Azerbaijani SMEs, especially those operating outside major cities in the country.

In a further attempt to explore bankable financing opportunities in Azerbaijan and facilitate the realization of its mandate of supporting private sector development in its member countries, the ICD also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), establishing strategic cooperation between the two institutions to collaborate in financing  of infrastructure and energy projects in Azerbaijan and other member countries within existing public private partnership (PPP) frameworks. Under the Memorandum of Understanding, the parties will identify and evaluate financing opportunities for project companies established by SOCAR and its joint venture partners. Within this framework, ICD will provide financing solutions tailored to the specific requirements of the projects.

Further, the ICD signed a Mandate Letter with Azerconnect for a USD 20 Million financing facility for capex financing and an Expression of Intent Letter for a USD 15 Million Line of Financing Facility with Turan Bank for onward financing of SMEs and eligible companies in Azerbaijan.

In an effort to strengthen and deepen its operations in Nigeria, the ICD also signed a Mandate Letter with the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) for a USD 50 Million syndicated line of financing facility to be arranged by ICD to be used by NEXIM for financing eligible private sector entities in Nigeria.

In line with its mandate of promoting economic development in its member countries, the ICD also signed an Expression of Intent  Letter for a proposed EUR 50 million Line of Financing Facility with  Afriland Bank (Cameroon),  and a Final Term Sheet for Euro 20 Million line of finance facility with AFG Bank (Cameroon), each for the purpose of onward financing of SMEs and other eligible private sector companies in Cameroon. Under these facilities,  the ICD will be leading and supporting the arrangement and mobilization of resources and private capital to support the operations of these Cameroonian banks and thus contributing to fostering economic growth and prosperity in the country.

Consistent with its objective of having a diversified portfolio across its member countries, the ICD also signed a Murabaha Facility Agreement with Al Salam Bank of Bahrain (ASB) for a USD 50 million Line of Finance Facility for the purpose of  onward financing of eligible companies in Bahrain whose operations contribute or have the potential of contributing significantly to the  growth and development of SMEs and the private sector in general in Bahrain.

ICD has also signed a strategic Memorandum of Understanding  with DAMU Entrepreneurship Development Fund of Kazakhstan to establish framework for cooperation aimed at identifying and developing financing and guarantee opportunities for Lines of financing in Kazakhstan, with a focus on supporting SMEs and private‑sector entities.

To further its support to the growth of the private sector in Kazakhstan, the ICD also signed a strategic Memorandum of Understanding with KAZAGROFINANCE JSC of Kazakhstan (KAF) to establish a common ground for partnership between the parties and the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan to extend thematic agri-sector linked line of finance facilities  to KAF under the Ministry’s subsidy program to farmers in Kazakhstan.

Additionally, Leveraging on ICD’s recent and first successful credit enhancement transaction with the African Solidarity Fund (FSA) in Mauritania in partnership with Banque Mauritanienne de l’Investissement (BMI),  the ICD signed a strategic Expression of Intent Letter with FSA as a demonstration of their intent to upscale their partnership in the use of FSA’s guarantees as credit enhancement for ICD’s line of financing operations in selected common member countries of the Parties.

Finally, the ICD also signed a Strategic MOU with the Texel Group of UK to establish a platform of cooperation on credit portfolio enhancement through insurance. Through this MOU the parties are aiming to combine ICD’s origination and development financing capabilities with Texel Group’s structuring and placement expertise in the use of Non Payment Insurance to enhance risk management, optimize capital allocation, and mobilize additional financing into priority sectors, while enabling ICD to upscale its financing activities and efficiently manage portfolio concentration and credit exposure in its member countries.

All these signed agreements represent a major step forward in ICD’s efforts to promote sustainable economic growth and financial inclusion across its member countries. By strengthening partnerships with key financial institutions and development partners, ICD continues to play a vital role in supporting private sector growth and development in its member countries.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD).

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African Mining Week (AMW) to Unlock Zimbabwe’s $12B Mining Vision Through Direct Investor Partnerships

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A dedicated country spotlight at African Mining Week 2026 will showcase regulatory reforms and project developments across Zimbabwe’s mining value chain

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 25, 2026/APO Group/ –African Mining Week 2026 – The Most Influential Mining Conference in Africa – will connect Zimbabwean regulators and mining stakeholders with global investors to advance partnerships, as the country accelerates efforts to build a $12 billion mining industry by 2030.

Taking place from October 14 – 16 in Cape Town, AMW 2026 will feature a dedicated Zimbabwe Country Spotlight, showcasing lucrative opportunities across the country’s mining value chain. The country spotlight will feature high-level panel discussions, exclusive networking sessions and project showcases, connecting global investors and service providers with senior decision-makers from the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development of Zimbabwe, the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe and leading mining companies operating across the country.

The spotlight comes at a pivotal moment for Zimbabwe, as the country seeks fresh capital to unlock value from more than 60 known mineral occurrences spanning gold, lithium, platinum group metals, chrome, coal and rare earths.

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In a major move to improve investment competitiveness, Zimbabwe reduced mining-related license and permit fees in May 2026, lowering operational costs for investors while streamlining market participation. Registration fees for dealing in precious stones have been reduced from $15,000 to $10,000, while export permit fees have been cut from $1,875 to $500. New licensing categories – including permits for gold jewellery manufacturing and lithium processing plants – have also been introduced as part of a broader strategy to promote investments across in-country value addition projects. The reduction in fees for beneficiation projects follows the April 2026 introduction of export quotas for lithium concentrates ahead of a planned 2027 ban on concentrate exports. The shift is already reshaping the country’s lithium industry, with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt achieving Zimbabwe’s first export shipment of lithium sulphate salts in April 2026.

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Coming into this picture, AMW 2026’s Zimbabwe Country Spotlight will provide investors with direct insights into these evolving regulatory frameworks, highlighting emerging investment and partnership prospects in lithium processing and across the mining value chain.

Zimbabwe’s gold sector is also positioned for renewed growth amid sustained high global gold prices (averaging $5,000 per ounce). In line with this momentum, Zimbabwe’s sovereign wealth fund, Mutapa Investment Fund, is seeking $250 million to expand gold mining operations. Against this backdrop, AMW 2026 offers a timely platform for investors to engage with one of Africa’s most prospective brownfield gold markets and explore opportunities across exploration, mine expansion and processing infrastructure.

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AMW 2026’s strong emphasis on artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) formalization also aligns closely with Zimbabwe’s national mining development strategy. In May 2026, Zimbabwe certified 300 small-scale miners following completion of training programs safety, compliance and productivity. Supported by funding from Mutapa Gold Resources – a subsidiary of Mutapa Investment Fund – the initiative aims to train and formalize 1,500 ASM players.

 

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As the official platform where Africa’s mining opportunities are discussed and maximized, AMW 2026 will provide stakeholders with market intelligence on Zimbabwe’s evolving mining landscape and investment outlook.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Afreximbank Africa Trade Report shows Africa can turn geopolitical disruptions into long-term growth opportunity

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The report highlights Africa’s continued growth resilience despite significant headwinds occasioned by escalating geopolitical tensions and ensuing economic shifts

CAIRO, Egypt, June 24, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has launched the 2026 edition of its flagship African Trade Report themed “Leveraging Geopolitics for Trade and Industrialisation in Global Africa.” The report presents a comprehensive review of trade and economic developments across Africa and globally in the context of the 2025 operating environment, while outlining available strategic options for Africa to transform ongoing geopolitical tensions and associated supply chain disruptions into long-term resilience for growth and shared prosperity across the continent.

 

The report highlights Africa’s continued growth resilience despite significant headwinds occasioned by escalating geopolitical tensions and ensuing economic shifts. Reflecting the continent’s growth resilience, the report shows that while global economic growth slowed to 3.4 percent in 2025 and is projected to further ease to 3.1 percent in 2026, Africa’s real GDP growth strengthened from 3.4 percent in 2024 to 4.5 percent in 2025. This performance not only surpasses the global average but also highlights the continent’s improving economic fundamentals in a fractured world economic order.

Africa’s merchandise trade also delivered strong performance, expanding by 6.1 percent to reach approximately US$1.5 trillion, while aggregate inflation declined sharply from 21.6 percent in 2024 to 13.1 percent 2025. These outcomes reflect the stabilising effects of prudent macroeconomic management, ongoing policy and institutional reforms, and the countercyclical interventions of development finance institutions across the continent.

Commenting on the Africa Trade Report’s findings, Dr Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist and Managing Director of Research and Trade Intelligence at Afreximbank, said:

By strategically leveraging these shifts, Africa can build a more resilient, competitive and inclusive economic future

Africa stands at a critical juncture. Geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation are reshaping global trade patterns, but they also present a historic opportunity for the continent. By strategically leveraging these shifts, Africa can build a more resilient, competitive and inclusive economic future.

“It is imperative for the continent to act decisively to strengthen regional value chains, deepen industrial capacity, expand access to trade finance, and accelerate continental integration. Through coordinated policy action, strategic infrastructure investment, and stronger development finance institutions, Africa can build a more resilient, inclusive, and value-added trade ecosystem. Africa cannot afford to delay.”

The report further highlights that Africa’s export performance remains constrained by a persistent trade finance gap, estimated at approximately US$74 billion in 2025. The challenge is exacerbated by limited foreign exchange liquidity and the continued decline in correspondent banking relationships, factors that restrict the continent’s capacity to fully realise its trade and industrial potential.

At the same time, evolving shipping routes and prolonged disruptions to global logistics networks continue to extend delivery timelines and increase freight and trading costs. These pressures are particularly acute for African economies that remain heavily reliant on imported inputs and external markets, even as global supply chains increasingly reconfigure toward resilience, diversification, and emergence of alternative production hubs.

The report also outlines several strategic priorities, including the accelerated implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the expansion of digital payments infrastructure through the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), and coordinated reforms to the global financial architecture. It further underscores the growing role of African financial institutions in strengthening economic resilience. Afreximbank, a founding member of the Alliance of African Multilateral Financial Institutions (AAMFI), disbursed US$17.5 billion in 2024 and is working to double intra-African trade finance by 2026. Meanwhile, Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) is already helping to reduce transaction costs and lessen reliance on foreign currencies across the continent.

As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global supply chains and trade patterns, the continent’s ability to leverage these shifts will depend on strengthening industrial ecosystems, expanding intra-African trade, and sustaining coordinated financial support. Ultimately, a combination of adaptive policy frameworks, strategic trade positioning, and robust direct foreign investment interventions will be central to driving a resilient, inclusive, and sustainable industrialisation pathway for Global Africa. The imperative now is to act with ambition and urgency. This would require accelerating the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), expanding intra-African trade finance, strengthening transport and logistics infrastructure, and deepening digital payment systems through the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS).

The full report can be downloaded here:  https://apo-opa.co/4xNkbFx

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 

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