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Nigeria’s Upstream Reform Program Captures 40% of Africa’s Final Investment Decision (FID) Activity After a Decade on the Margins

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African Energy Chamber

A government three-year review documents how executive action under President Tinubu reversed a decade of upstream decline

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Nigeria has gone from capturing 4% of Africa’s upstream final investment decisions (FIDs) to commanding 40% in two years, according to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen. The $50 billion project pipeline now in development beyond 2026 points to sustained capital commitment at a scale not seen in the Nigerian upstream for at least a decade.

 

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria was among the continent’s weakest performers for upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second-largest endowment in Africa. Algeria captured 44% of African upstream FIDs during that period, Angola held 26%, while Nigeria trailed Mozambique, Ghana, Senegal and Namibia. In the third quarter of 2022, crude production briefly dropped below one million barrels per day, as years of underinvestment, pipeline vandalism and regulatory ambiguity compounded each other. However, reforms instituted by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu have dramatically turned this trend around. Through deliberate and coordinated steps, the government has reset the trajectory.

Addressing Fiscal Terms, Regulatory Scope and Contracting Speed

President Bola Tinubu’s administration moved simultaneously on fiscal terms and regulatory architecture. Policy directives in 2023 clarified the boundary of jurisdiction between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), resolving an ambiguity that had complicated project sanctioning. Presidential Directive 40 introduced targeted tax incentives, and a separate Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Production in 2024 was designed to draw international oil companies (IOCs) back into capital-intensive, long-cycle deepwater projects. The VAT Modification Order 2024 and Upstream Cost Efficiency Order 2025 addressed the cost structures that had rendered marginal projects uneconomic. NNPCL contracting timelines were compressed from 36 months to a maximum of six months.

Four Divestments Transferred Onshore Control to Indigenous Operators

In parallel, the administration deployed targeted security directives and accelerated ministerial consents for four IOC asset transfers. Renaissance acquired Shell’s onshore portfolio. Seplat Energy completed its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian upstream interests. Oando took over from Agip, and Chappal acquired Equinor’s local assets. The four transactions totaled approximately $4 billion. The transfer of onshore and shallow-water blocks to indigenous operators contributed directly to production recovery. Output rose by approximately 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2025 to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest onshore production level in 20 years.

When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds

Signed Projects Total $10 Billion, With a $50 Billion Pipeline Beyond

The reforms produced a concrete FID response from Shell and TotalEnergies. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) sanctioned the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024 and committed a further $2 billion to the HI Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project. TotalEnergies and NNPCL took a joint FID on the $550 million Ubeta gas field development in June 2024.

Together those three commitments account for more than $10 billion in signed investment after a decade of near-zero sanctioning activity. The pipeline beyond 2026 spans a further $50 billion across 11 projects including Bonga South West, Owowo, Usan and Erha. Nigeria approved 28 field development plans valued at $18.2 billion in 2025 alone, targeting an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves.

“When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Nigeria has done both, and the FID numbers are concrete proof.”

The Counterfactual Illustrates How Much Was at Stake

The presentation includes a no-reform projection that puts the gains in context. Without intervention, total crude and condensate production was on track to fall from 1.371 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 to 579,000 by 2030. Under the reform trajectory, output reached 1.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with a stated government target of 3 million barrels per day. Export gas utilization rose 39% over the same period, while domestic utilization grew by 7%.

The durability of these gains will be tested by two factors: whether the institutional architecture put in place under the Tinubu administration holds over the long term, and whether the deepwater commitments signed in 2024 and 2025 advance to execution on schedule. The project pipeline is large enough that partial delivery would still represent a generational shift in Nigeria’s upstream output profile.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Liberia to Preview Next Oil & Gas Licensing Round Strategy at Houston Investor Day

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The Liberia Petroleum Regulatory Authority will host operators, investors and partners in Houston on August 19 to preview future licensing opportunities and showcase the exploration potential of its offshore basins

HOUSTON, United States of America, August 7, 2026/APO Group/ –The Liberia Petroleum Regulatory Authority (LPRA) will present its strategy for the country’s next offshore licensing round at Liberia Investor Day Houston on August 19, bringing together international exploration companies, investors, service providers and energy leaders to discuss the next phase of Liberia’s upstream development.

Hosted in partnership with Energy Capital & Power, the event will provide a platform for the LPRA, led by Director General Hon. Marilyn T. Logan, to outline Liberia’s regulatory framework, investment priorities and plans to attract new participation across the country’s offshore sector. Discussions will focus on upcoming licensing opportunities, exploration prospects and the subsurface data supporting future investment decisions.

Liberia’s offshore sector is entering a new phase of exploration activity, with renewed international participation and a growing pipeline of opportunities. Following the award and ratification of eight Production Sharing Contracts in 2025, Liberia has re-established itself as a frontier exploration destination, with international operators advancing work programs designed to further evaluate the country’s petroleum potential. TotalEnergies is progressing exploration activities that include offshore geochemical surveys, 3D seismic acquisition and seabed mapping, while Oranto Petroleum has also signed contracts to explore Liberia’s offshore.

At the Liberia Investor Day Houston, the LPRA will provide industry stakeholders with insight into the priorities shaping the next licensing round, including the anticipated process, qualification requirements, available acreage and access to technical data. The engagement will give prospective investors a clearer view of Liberia’s exploration landscape and the opportunities emerging across its offshore basins.

The event will also facilitate direct dialogue between LPRA and the global upstream community, connecting companies with policymakers and industry stakeholders involved in shaping Liberia’s next chapter of petroleum development.

As exploration companies continue to seek new frontier opportunities, Liberia Investor Day Houston will highlight the role of regulatory certainty, data availability and strategic partnerships in unlocking long-term investment across Liberia’s offshore sector.

Registration is now open for attendees. Companies interested in Liberia’s emerging offshore opportunities are invited to join LPRA, investors and upstream leaders in Houston for insights into the country’s licensing strategy and exploration outlook. For more information contact info@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 

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Beyond Stabroek: Guyana’s Offshore Basin Attracts New Wave of Exploration Investment

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As ExxonMobil advances appraisal activity in Stabroek and new operators target frontier acreage, Guyana is attracting global capital and building a diversified offshore portfolio designed to sustain long-term growth

GEORGETOWN, Guyana, August 7, 2026/APO Group/ –Guyana’s transformation into one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers is entering a new phase, with a growing network of IOCs expanding exploration activity across the country’s offshore basin. Beyond the landmark discoveries that first put Guyana on the global energy map, new drilling campaigns and licensing partnerships are creating a broader exploration ecosystem designed to support long-term production growth.

At the center of this momentum is ExxonMobil’s continued exploration and appraisal activity in the prolific Stabroek Block. The company has submitted a proposal for a 35-well exploration and appraisal drilling campaign, expected to run from 2028 through 2033, pending regulatory approval. The program would build on more than 30 commercial discoveries already made in the block, with drilling activity focused on evaluating new prospects and appraising existing discoveries to support future development opportunities.

Exploration activity is also extending into Guyana’s frontier acreage, with ExxonMobil advancing drilling operations at the deepwater Canje Block. The company has deployed the Noble Stena Carron drillship for exploration activity, highlighting continued industry interest in evaluating Guyana’s underexplored offshore potential beyond the established Stabroek Block.

Guyana’s strong exploration outlook comes as the country’s economy continues to benefit from rapid oil sector expansion, with hydrocarbons expected to remain a key driver of exports, government revenues and economic growth. As production scales up, attracting additional investment across exploration, services and infrastructure will be critical to supporting the next phase of development.

That momentum is being reinforced through partnerships established under Guyana’s 2023 offshore licensing round. A consortium comprising TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and Petronas is advancing exploration activities in Block S4 under a five-year production sharing agreement signed with the government in late 2025. The award represents one of the first major outcomes of the licensing round and demonstrates continued international confidence in Guyana’s offshore resource potential.

Beyond the largest operators, a diverse group of companies is also expanding activity across Guyana’s offshore basin. Eco Atlantic is advancing exploration at the Orinduik Block; CGX Energy and Frontera Energy are progressing work in the Corentyne Block; Occidental is evaluating opportunities in the Roraima Block; while Ratio Guyana and Cataleya Energy hold interests in the Kaieteur Block. Together, these partnerships are broadening Guyana’s exploration landscape, increasing competition for acreage and creating opportunities for future discoveries.

As Guyana transitions from an emerging producer to a global energy hub, the next challenge will be converting exploration success into sustainable investment, local value creation and regional growth. These opportunities will be explored at Caribbean Energy Week 2027, held under the theme “Unlocking the Caribbean Energy Corridor: Oil, Gas, LNG & Investment for a New Global Hub.” Bringing together governments, IOCs, investors and technology providers, the event will examine how Guyana’s expanding partnerships can accelerate offshore development, strengthen regional energy cooperation and attract the capital needed to support the Caribbean’s evolving energy landscape.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Energy Capital & Power Establishes London Entity, Expanding Global Platform for Energy and Mining Events

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The move strengthens ECP’s presence in the UK and Europe, and its ability to connect African and South American markets with global investors

LONDON, United Kingdom, August 6, 2026/APO Group/ –International events company Energy Capital & Power (ECP) (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) has officially established its UK entity in London, marking a milestone in the company’s growth strategy and reinforcing its ability to deliver world-class energy and mining events and campaigns in the UK and Europe.

By establishing a presence in a key hub like London – the pre-eminent energy and mining finance center – ECP actively shapes the global energy conversation. The expansion positions ECP to better serve clients, partners and investors seeking to develop business opportunities between Africa, Europe, the Americas and energy markets worldwide.

Opening our UK company brings ECP closer to key investors in the global energy finance capital

The milestone comes as ECP strengthens its reach through a series of investment platforms that connect global capital to energy and mining projects. These include the Venezuela Energy Week London Showcase on July 30 – with over 300 delegates registered – and the annual Invest in African Energy Forum, held in Paris as the premier event connecting global investors to Africa’s energy transformation.

ECP hosts high level summits and investor conferences in leading energy and minerals producing countries in Africa and South America, including: Venezuela Energy Week; Angola Oil & Gas; MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power; African Mining Week; Libya Energy & Economic Summit; Congo Energy & Investment Forum; South Sudan Oil & Power; and Caribbean Energy Week. The company has hosted investor forums and supported licensing round roadshows in Houston, London and Paris since 2016.

“Opening our UK company brings ECP closer to key investors in the global energy finance capital,” states CEO James Chester. “Having a permanent presence in London further cements our footprint in Europe, enabling us to fulfil our mission to bring minerals and energy investment to diverse global markets.”

With teams located across Africa, Europe and the Americas, ECP has long-facilitated strategic engagement, market intelligence and industry convening, uniting investors with leading energy and mining projects.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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