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Nigeria’s Upstream Reform Program Captures 40% of Africa’s Final Investment Decision (FID) Activity After a Decade on the Margins

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African Energy Chamber

A government three-year review documents how executive action under President Tinubu reversed a decade of upstream decline

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Nigeria has gone from capturing 4% of Africa’s upstream final investment decisions (FIDs) to commanding 40% in two years, according to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen. The $50 billion project pipeline now in development beyond 2026 points to sustained capital commitment at a scale not seen in the Nigerian upstream for at least a decade.

 

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria was among the continent’s weakest performers for upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second-largest endowment in Africa. Algeria captured 44% of African upstream FIDs during that period, Angola held 26%, while Nigeria trailed Mozambique, Ghana, Senegal and Namibia. In the third quarter of 2022, crude production briefly dropped below one million barrels per day, as years of underinvestment, pipeline vandalism and regulatory ambiguity compounded each other. However, reforms instituted by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu have dramatically turned this trend around. Through deliberate and coordinated steps, the government has reset the trajectory.

Addressing Fiscal Terms, Regulatory Scope and Contracting Speed

President Bola Tinubu’s administration moved simultaneously on fiscal terms and regulatory architecture. Policy directives in 2023 clarified the boundary of jurisdiction between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), resolving an ambiguity that had complicated project sanctioning. Presidential Directive 40 introduced targeted tax incentives, and a separate Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Production in 2024 was designed to draw international oil companies (IOCs) back into capital-intensive, long-cycle deepwater projects. The VAT Modification Order 2024 and Upstream Cost Efficiency Order 2025 addressed the cost structures that had rendered marginal projects uneconomic. NNPCL contracting timelines were compressed from 36 months to a maximum of six months.

Four Divestments Transferred Onshore Control to Indigenous Operators

In parallel, the administration deployed targeted security directives and accelerated ministerial consents for four IOC asset transfers. Renaissance acquired Shell’s onshore portfolio. Seplat Energy completed its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian upstream interests. Oando took over from Agip, and Chappal acquired Equinor’s local assets. The four transactions totaled approximately $4 billion. The transfer of onshore and shallow-water blocks to indigenous operators contributed directly to production recovery. Output rose by approximately 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2025 to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest onshore production level in 20 years.

When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds

Signed Projects Total $10 Billion, With a $50 Billion Pipeline Beyond

The reforms produced a concrete FID response from Shell and TotalEnergies. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) sanctioned the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024 and committed a further $2 billion to the HI Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project. TotalEnergies and NNPCL took a joint FID on the $550 million Ubeta gas field development in June 2024.

Together those three commitments account for more than $10 billion in signed investment after a decade of near-zero sanctioning activity. The pipeline beyond 2026 spans a further $50 billion across 11 projects including Bonga South West, Owowo, Usan and Erha. Nigeria approved 28 field development plans valued at $18.2 billion in 2025 alone, targeting an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves.

“When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Nigeria has done both, and the FID numbers are concrete proof.”

The Counterfactual Illustrates How Much Was at Stake

The presentation includes a no-reform projection that puts the gains in context. Without intervention, total crude and condensate production was on track to fall from 1.371 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 to 579,000 by 2030. Under the reform trajectory, output reached 1.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with a stated government target of 3 million barrels per day. Export gas utilization rose 39% over the same period, while domestic utilization grew by 7%.

The durability of these gains will be tested by two factors: whether the institutional architecture put in place under the Tinubu administration holds over the long term, and whether the deepwater commitments signed in 2024 and 2025 advance to execution on schedule. The project pipeline is large enough that partial delivery would still represent a generational shift in Nigeria’s upstream output profile.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Afreximbank Backs DOTT Services Limited, Uganda with a US$28 Million Facility for Regional Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) Projects

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The financing will enhance DOTT’s capacity to execute strategic projects across the continent, facilitate intra-African trade in goods and services and strengthen regional value chains

CAIRO, Egypt, November 4, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has activated and approved a US$28 million dual-tranche facility for DOTT Services Limited, the leading Uganda-based engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractor, and has begun disbursing funds to support the execution of its EPC projects pipeline, valued at more than US$550 million.

 




 
 

Provided under Afreximbank’s EPC Contract Promotion Initiative, the facility is designed to strengthen the capacity of African EPC champions to secure and execute large-scale infrastructure projects across the continent. Specifically, the financing will support DOTT Services Limited in executing contracts and pursuing near-term opportunities valued at approximately US$550 million across Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Commenting on the transaction, Mr. Humphrey Nwugo, Director of Regional Operations at Afreximbank’s Eastern Africa office, said:

Through the initiative, the Bank provides support, including financing, twinning and matchmaking

“This facility reflects Afreximbank’s commitment to building strong African EPC champions capable of delivering the infrastructure that underpins Africa’s industrialisation, trade and economic integration. By supporting DOTT Services Ltd, a well-established regional contractor with operations across five African countries, we are addressing a critical financing gap that has historically constrained the ability of African firms to participate meaningfully in large-scale, cross-border infrastructure projects.

The financing will enhance DOTT’s capacity to execute strategic projects across the continent, facilitate intra-African trade in goods and services and strengthen regional value chains. It also advances Afreximbank’s EPC Contract Promotion Initiative, which seeks to increase African participation in the development and delivery of Africa’s infrastructure.

Through partnerships such as this, we are ensuring that greater value, expertise, employment opportunities and economic benefits are retained within Africa while fostering the emergence of globally competitive African contractors.”

Mr. Nwugo further noted that most local commercial banks lacked the capacity to support intra-African and regional projects because they were poorly placed to absorb the associated cross-border risks, while international banks tended to prioritise non-African contractors. As a result, African entities were often left without adequate financial support.

He said: “Afreximbank’s EPC Initiative was therefore designed to address this challenge by supporting African EPC contractors in securing and executing a greater share of infrastructure contracts across the continent. Through the initiative, the Bank provides support, including financing, twinning and matchmaking, as well as issuing letters of support, among others”, he explained.

DOTT Services Limited presence in Africa spans 28-years, with operations in Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo). It also has European offices in Italy and the UK, and a workforce of over 6,000 people. The company procures from, and distributes to, African countries goods such as bitumen, asphalt, steel and spare parts, as well as yellow goods equipment and services, making it a significant player in intra-African trade. Its track record of promoting trade-supporting infrastructure across the continent makes it a natural partner for Afreximbank’s EPC Contract Promotion Initiative, which seeks to build African EPC champions capable of delivering the infrastructure that underpins intra-African trade.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 

 




 

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Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) invests in Africa’s leadership potential through EDGE

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Developed in partnership with Henley Business School Africa, the programme equips high-potential leaders with the skills, experiences and perspectives needed to drive growth, create value and deliver impact across the business

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, November 4, 2026/APO Group/ –Thirty-one leaders from across 12 African countries have graduated from Coca-Cola Beverages Africa’s (CCBA) (https://www.CCBAgroup.com) EDGE Senior Leadership Acceleration Programme, marking the completion of the programme’s second generation and the first pan-African EDGE cohort.

 




 
 

Created by CCBA, EDGE is the company’s flagship senior leadership development programme. Building on previous participation from The Coca-Cola Company, the programme was further expanded in 2026 to include leaders from Equatorial Coca-Cola Bottling Company and Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company, creating a broader pan-African learning experience across the Coca-Cola system.

Developed in partnership with Henley Business School Africa, the programme equips high-potential leaders with the skills, experiences and perspectives needed to drive growth, create value and deliver impact across the business.

The 2026 cohort marks an important milestone for EDGE as the programme brought together leaders from across the Coca-Cola system

The graduating cohort represented leaders from multiple countries and business functions. Through classroom learning, business projects, mentoring and coaching, participants gained practical experience in addressing real business opportunities and challenges.

With CCBA serving more than 840,000 customers across Africa, the company requires leaders who can navigate complexity and create value in diverse markets. EDGE helps build these capabilities through practical, business-focused learning.

“People are at the heart of everything we do, and programmes like EDGE demonstrate our commitment to investing in their growth and future success,” said Natasa Prodanovic, Chief People and Culture Officer at CCBA.

“The 2026 cohort marks an important milestone for EDGE as the programme brought together leaders from across the Coca-Cola system. By learning alongside colleagues from The Coca-Cola Company, Equatorial Coca-Cola Bottling Company and Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company, participants were able to build meaningful connections, share diverse perspectives and strengthen collaboration across our markets.”

The curriculum focused on strategy, value creation, transformation, commercial decision-making, leading self and leading teams. Participants also presented business projects aligned to organisational priorities as part of the programme’s graduation requirements.

EDGE forms part of CCBA’s broader commitment to developing future leaders and building the capabilities needed to drive sustainable growth and impact across Africa.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Coca-Cola Beverages Africa.

 

 




 

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Africa and Caribbean trade potential could reach $1.65 billion annually by 2030: International Trade Centre (ITC)-Afreximbank report

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The report finds that around 80% of Africa’s annual goods export potential to the Caribbean remains untapped

ST. JOHN’S, Antigua and Barbuda, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –Annual trade in goods and services between Africa and the Caribbean could reach up to $1.65 billion by 2030, excluding mineral fuels, according to a new report launched today by the International Trade Centre (ITC) and African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.

 




  

The report, Reshaping Africa-Caribbean Trade: Opportunities for Economic Transformation, (https://apo-opa.co/4eiz62u) finds that while Africa and the Caribbean share deep historical and cultural links, trade between the two regions continues to represent only a small share of each region’s overall trade, despite complementarities across sectors ranging from agribusiness and manufacturing to services and the creative economy.

A look at the numbers

The report finds that around 80% of Africa’s annual goods export potential to the Caribbean remains untapped, with are significant opportunities for export growth if trade and investment is actively promoted and facilitated.

Africa and the Caribbean must transform a shared history into shared prosperity

Caribbean export potential lies in the services sector, reaching $481 million. The report identifies business opportunities across several priority sectors, including processed food and animal feed, chemicals, minerals and metals, apparel and textiles, leather and footwear, tourism, transport services and creative industries.

These findings – and more – are based on trade and export potential analysis, detailed sector assessments and a survey of 1,175 businesses and business support organizations across Africa and the Caribbean.

Tapping into priority sectors

ITC Executive Director Pamela Coke-Hamilton (https://apo-opa.co/3WHHZMU), in launching the report, said: ‘At a time of major shifts in global trade, countries need to strengthen regional ties and invest in value addition, to build resilience. We know the major trade opportunities between Africa and the Caribbean – and now we can focus on helping businesses take advantage of those opportunities through better market intelligence, improved logistics and greater access to finance.’

Commenting on the report, Denys Denya, Senior Executive Vice President at Afreximbank, said: ‘Africa and the Caribbean must transform a shared history into shared prosperity. With our CARICOM office in Barbados, about $1 billion in approved transactions and a $5 billion regional financing commitment, Afreximbank is advancing this vision through financing, deposit mobilization under CENDEP, business links through the annual Afri-Caribbean Trade and Investment Forum, local-currency payments through CAPSS and creative-industry collaboration through CANEX. This report offers a practical roadmap to turn untapped potential into bankable opportunities across agribusiness, manufacturing, tourism and the creative economy. Through targeted financing, stronger transport and logistics links and strategic partnerships, we can build a Global Africa connected by heritage, trade, investment and shared opportunity.’

The report finds that businesses continue to face significant challenges, including high transport costs, limited direct shipping links, regulatory barriers, limited access to finance and difficulties in identifying trusted commercial partners. It highlights that future economic cooperation should extend beyond traditional trade in goods, including through joint investment ventures, digital services, creative industries and tourism. It also calls for targeted action to improve market intelligence and business matchmaking; expand access to trade finance and payment solutions; strengthen transport and logistics connectivity; support sector-specific value chain development; improve regulatory cooperation and market access; and foster stronger partnerships among business support organizations.

Read the full report HERE (https://apo-opa.co/4exHBH9)

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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