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Global ad market prospects further downgraded as retailers, automakers cut ad budgets and Chinese brands redirect spend due to US trade tariffs

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12 months ago

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Global ad market

Growth forecasts for advertising spend have been downgraded further this year (-0.5pp to +6.2%) following an initial $20bn cut in March

Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are expected to cut ad budgets in the wake of mounting tariff pressures on supply chains

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 54.7% excluding China this year – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026

US ad market prospects cut by half a point to +5.2% as Chinese retailers such as Temu and Shein redirect spend to Canada, Australia and Europe

Global ad market growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5% next year, with a total of $1.23trn equivalent to almost $150 per capita

WARC Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025 update: Growth cut amid trade trepidations

12 June 2025 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.2% this year to $1.16trn, a downgrade of half a percentage point (pp) from WARC’s March forecast due to growing market volatility. Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are set to cut ad spend this year, while ad spend growth across technology and CPG brands is muted compared to previous rates.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, says: “The latest downgrade is attributable to a reticence to commit ad budgets across key markets in the second quarter. This cooling is underpinned by tariff trepidations and ebbing business and consumer confidence, prompting advertisers to front-load budgets and reallocate spend geographically, particularly towards Canada, Australia, and Europe.

“Trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies. Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins. Tech firms face growing uncertainty despite continued investment, and CPG brands are leaning into retail media as supply chains come under pressure. Across the board, agility is the new imperative.”

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.

Key media outlook: AI propels Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to 54.7% market share outside of China

Search to account for more than a fifth (21.5%) of the ad market this year, with spend rising 7.4% to $248.6bn despite regulatory threats
Social media – the largest single advertising medium globally – is poised to account for a quarter (25.8%) of all ad spend this year, at a total of $298.3bn
Retail media set to be fastest growing advertising medium this year (+14.4%), though trade disruption threatens ad receipts from consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands

Pure play internet – encompassing social media, retail media, online display, online classified and paid search – grew 11.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to $195.2bn, equivalent to 70.8% of all global ad spend. The growth rate is expected to ease to 9.9% during the second quarter and 8.9% over the second half of the year – to an annual total of $829.2bn (+9.8% vs. 2024).

The pure play internet sector is on course to top $1trn in ad revenue in 2028, by when it would account for almost 80% of all advertising spend. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon’s combined share of advertising spend outside of China is expected to reach 54.7% this year (+1.8pp vs. 2024) with an aggregated total of $524.4bn. This share is set to rise further – to 56.2% – next year.

Within the pure play internet total, search advertising spend is forecast to rise 7.4% this year and 6.8% next, by when the market would be worth $265.5bn – equivalent to 21.5% of all spend, up from 21.2% in 2024.

Within the paid search total, Google’s expected $213.3bn take would account for 85.8% of the market this year. The embedding of artificial intelligence into the search journey stands to disrupt ad revenue models, but Google’s dominance in search advertising will likely persist in the near term, aided by SMEs.

Social media is now set to account for over a quarter of all ad spend this year. A strong first quarter rise of 14.9% precedes an expected slowdown, with growth averaging 11.2% over the coming three quarters as tariffs begin to impact Asian brands disproportionally. The social market is still on track to grow 12.0% to $298.3bn this year.

​​Meta last month outlined plans for an end-to-end AI solution covering the generation of creative, ad placement and performance optimisation – primarily for its long tail of small advertisers rather than large brands. Meta’s ad business is forecast to grow 12.6% to $142.1bn this year, a cooling from the 18.4% rise recorded in 2024.

Retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing medium tracked by WARC this year, with an anticipated rise of 14.4% to a total value of $176.2bn. This represents a 15.2% share of global ad spend this year.

Amazon’s retail media ad business grew 21.0% to $13.3bn during the first quarter, accounting for a third (33.4%) of the global retail media market. WARC projects Amazon’s ad income will grow by 16.1% to $60.6bn this year. A further rise, of 14.9%, is forecast next year, giving Amazon a 35.4% of global retail media spend and 5.7% of all advertising spend worldwide. Like other online retailers, Amazon is exposed to tariffs imposed on its Chinese sellers, thought to be well over half of all vendors on the platform.

Global video advertising spend is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2025 to $183.9bn, equating to 15.9% of all spend this year. The contraction is driven by a continued decline in linear TV, which still represents over three-quarters of the total video market.

Linear TV spend is expected to fall by 6.3% this year – a drop exacerbated by 2024 major sporting and political events. Notably, 2025 marks the first year that retail media will command a greater share of global ad spend than linear TV.

Video-on-demand (VOD) advertising is forecast to rise by 13.2% to $39.9bn, a downgrade from the 15.4% projected in March. Within this, Netflix is due to see ad billings double this year (from a small base) due to the relative resilience of its ad tier during economic downturns.

Key product sector trends: Tariff trepidations hit retailers and automakers

Automotive ad spend down 4.0% this year as manufacturing stalls and key players pare back on brand building
Retailers set to reduce ad spend by 6.1% as margins tighten; US retailers are vulnerable to disruption among Chinese suppliers
Ad growth set to slow markedly among tech & electronic and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands as barriers to trade impair access to components

The automotive industry invested $56.8bn in advertising last year with almost a quarter (22.9%) going to premium video formats. However, budgets are shifting from video towards digital platforms, with automotive spend on social ads surpassing linear TV for the first time in 2025.

Despite WARC’s projected 4.0% cut in automotive advertising spend this year (an improvement on the 7.3% originally projected in March), the sector should rebound next year with a 7.5% rise pushing spend to a total of $58.6bn.

Retail, with projected ad spend of $166.1bn this year (14.3% of the global ad market), faces a fall of 6.1% from 2024 levels. This largely reflects impending US trade tariffs on key goods and raw materials, which are poised to increase costs for global retailers, particularly those heavily reliant on Chinese imports such as Amazon and Walmart.

Retailers are set to accelerate shifts in marketing strategies in response to changing cost structures and consumer behaviour. As predicted in March, large Chinese retailers targeting US consumers – including Temu and Shein – have reallocated advertising spend to other markets such as Canada, Australia and Europe.

The tech and electronics sector is expected to spend $90.3bn on advertising this year. This year-on-year rise of 5.5% represents a cut from our +6.2% forecast in March, and is a sharp slowdown from the 24.3% rise recorded last year. Tariffs are driving the sector to adjust go-to-market strategies, shifting investments toward less-affected regions or different product lines to buffer against hardware margin erosion.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies experienced their weakest first quarter sales revenues since the pandemic. Further, with tariffs reaching as high as 145% for Chinese imports and additional tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, CPG companies are facing major disruption to their established supply chains.

WARC expects core CPG sectors, such as soft drinks (+7.1%), toiletries & cosmetics (+7.2%) and household & domestic (+4.2%) to record growth in advertising spend at a global level this year, though all see a significant slowdown from 2024. Taken together, the CPG sector is expected to increase advertising spend by 6.7% this year to a total of $200.5bn.

Key market outlook: US growth prospects cut as Chinese brands look elsewhere

US ad market expected to post a +5.2% rise this year, less than half that recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and has been cut by half a point since March
Canadian ad spend growth set to ease to 3.5% this year despite some Chinese advertisers redirecting spend from the US
The Chinese ad market continues to struggle with weak domestic demand; growth is set to slow to 7.2% this year
The UK, German, French and Japanese economies are all stalling and present a severe risk of stagflation over the forecast period

WARC’s latest forecast suggests the US ad market will grow 5.2% this year to $451.6bn, half the growth rate recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and representing a 0.5 point downgrade from our March forecast. The US ad market – the largest worldwide with a 39.0% share – faces major headwinds including tariff uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, lower consumer demand and stagflation.

Despite a strong first quarter performance – +7.6% to $105.7bn, boosted by Chinese brands accelerating spend ahead of the anticipated tariff changes – US ad market growth is expected to slow significantly through to year-end.

Chinese brands appear to be redirecting ad spend to Canada to negate US market barriers, yet Canadian ad growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year amid deteriorating economic conditions. The IMF had downgraded Canada’s GDP growth forecast by 0.6pp to 1.4%, with the Bank of Canada projecting growth rate to approximately +0.5% in 2025.

Digital platforms dominate Canada’s media landscape, projected to capture 77.6% of the total market this year. This digital transformation stems from granular targeting capabilities drawing advertisers away from traditional media, with retail media now fuelling additional growth.

China is experiencing significant structural shifts, characterised by increasingly price-conscious consumers and a digital ecosystem dominated by major players including ByteDance (Douyin), Alibaba, and Tencent, creating challenges for smaller platforms. Short-form video has become instrumental in brand promotion in China, while marketers are prioritising performance marketing over brand building initiatives.

Projected US tariffs are expected to dull China’s economic growth by 0.2 points in 2025, creating economic uncertainty and prompting a downward revision of our 2025 advertising growth expectations to 7.2% (from 8.3% in March). The outlook for 2026 has been upgraded to 7.9% growth (from 6.9%), reflecting the online sector’s resilience.

The AA/WARC Expenditure Report forecast for the UK ad market stands at +6.5% in 2025, to a total of £44.3bn ($54.7bn). The highly digitalised UK market sees online ads accounting for over four in five (84.6%) dollars this year, with social (+13.1% this year) and search (+8.2%) fuelling growth despite weak economic prospects.

Germany’s economy is also struggling, at just +0.4% expected growth by the OECD this year following a cut of 0.3pp from its last outlook. WARC forecasts a modest 2.9% rise in German advertising spend to €26.4bn ($29.5bn). Growth in France’s ad market is also set to be muted this year, at +2.7% to €18.8bn ($20.3bn). Japan faces a challenging outlook, too, with advertising spend expected to rise by 3.3% to ¥5.8trn ($39.0bn) this year.

 

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Forget Energy Transition, Produce Oil Like Nothing Before

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June 9, 2026

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African Energy Chamber

The future requires more oil and gas production – not less

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –The world does not have an energy problem. It has an energy supply problem. As demand rises, populations grow, and billions of people continue to live without reliable access to electricity and clean cooking technologies, the case for producing more energy has never been stronger. From Africa to Latin America, governments and operators are responding with renewed investments in exploration, production and infrastructure, signaling a shift away from energy subtraction and toward energy addition.

Speaking during the ARPEL Conference 2026 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber (AEC) – the voice of the African energy sector – delivered a direct message to policymakers, investors and industry leaders: “Forget transition. Let’s talk about addition. Let’s give people what they need.”

The numbers support the argument. Energy poverty remains one of the greatest barriers to economic development globally. In Africa alone, more than 600 million people remain without access to electricity, with nearly one billion people living without access to clean cooking technologies – the most disproportionately affected of which are women. Asking developing economies to produce less energy while these realities persist is fundamentally disconnected from the needs of billions of people.

“For far too long, we have been told to build less, produce less and pay more for energy,” Ayuk stated. “In Africa, we believe this is a moment for energy addition, not energy subtraction. Drill, baby, drill. It’s more important today than ever before.”

Africa offers the clearest justification for increasing oil and gas production. Despite holding more than 125 billion barrels of crude oil reserves and 620 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves, the continent relies heavily on imported petroleum products to sustain its economies. Inadequate investment flows across the energy value chain have impacted development and industrialization, leaving millions in the dark.

The global energy transition further compounds this challenge. Opposition by environmental groups, a shift toward aid rather than commercial business structures and diminishing investment for oil and gas projects have brought significant implications to the continent. While developed economies are pursuing a shift towards alternative energy sources, Africa needs its oil and gas – now more than ever before.

For far too long, we have been told to build less, produce less and pay more for energy

Efforts are being made across the continent to produce more oil and gas. Leading producers such as Nigeria and Angola strive to increase output, targeting brownfield development, accelerated exploration and enhanced recovery. Emerging producers such as Namibia are fast-approaching first oil, while discoveries made in Ivory Coast, investments made in the Republic of Congo, and new LNG builds in Mozambique and Tanzania are supporting greater production continent-wide.

“We must remain resolute. We must commit to an industry that builds more, produces more and never apologizes for oil. Many people in Africa are not ashamed of oil. We believe oil has a major role to play in our energy future,” Ayuk said.

Latin America offers a powerful demonstration of what sustained exploration and production can achieve. Brazil’s pre-salt developments remain among the most successful offshore projects in the world, delivering large volumes of low-cost production while attracting continued investment. Guyana continues to expand output at one of the fastest rates globally, while Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play is strengthening the country’s position as a major energy producer. Pan American Energy also recently announced plans to invest $680 million to revitalize Argentina’s Cerro Dragon field in the mature Golfo San Jorge basin, reflecting global interest in optimizing South American oil production.

The region’s success reflects a commitment to developing resources rather than restricting them. “Our friends in Latin America have been strong stewards for our industry,” Ayuk said, adding, “Be proud of your energy industry.”

That message extends far beyond Latin America. As governments reassess energy policy, supply security and economic growth priorities, oil and gas continue to provide the foundation upon which modern economies are built. The choice facing both emerging and producing nations is increasingly clear: either create the conditions necessary for investment, exploration and development, or risk falling behind in a world that continues to demand more energy.

“We do not have anywhere to transition to. Where are we going to transition to? From the dark to the dark?” Ayuk asked. “We want to ensure that we have energy that drives development.”

For billions of people still seeking access to affordable, reliable energy, the priority is not producing less. It is producing more.

“Don’t ever apologize for producing energy that drives human flourishing,” Ayuk concluded. “Keep building, keep producing and don’t be scared to say, ‘drill, baby, drill’ whenever you have the chance.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Heirs Energies’ US$750 Million Financing Named Best Oil & Gas Deal of the Year

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4 hours ago

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June 9, 2026

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Heirs Energies Limited

The award was presented on 3 June 2026, in London, and recognises one of the largest financings secured by an indigenous African energy company

LONDON, United Kingdom, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Heirs Energies Limited, Africa’s leading indigenous-owned integrated energy company, has been recognised on the global stage after its landmark US$750 million dual-tranche Senior Secured Reserve-Based Lending (RBL) facility was named Best Oil & Gas Deal of the Year at the EMEA Finance Project Finance Awards 2026.

 

The award was presented on 3 June 2026, in London, and recognises one of the largest financings secured by an indigenous African energy company. The transaction highlights the growing role of African capital in supporting strategic investments that advance energy security, economic development, and long-term value creation across the continent.

Executed with the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), the US$750 million financing was structured to accelerate field development, optimise production, and support Heirs Energies’ long-term growth ambitions, while maintaining disciplined capital management.

Commenting on the recognition, Osa Igiehon, Chief Executive Officer of Heirs Energies, said: “This recognition reflects the confidence that African and international financial institutions continue to place in Heirs Energies, our strategy, and our long-term vision.

“The transaction demonstrates that indigenous African energy companies can successfully structure and execute world-class financing solutions that support investment, growth, and value creation. We are proud to receive this award and grateful to our financing partners, advisers, and stakeholders whose support made it possible.”

We are proud to receive this award and grateful to our financing partners, advisers, and stakeholders whose support made it possible

Mr. Haytham ElMaayergi, Executive Vice President, Global Trade Bank at Afreximbank, said: “We are truly honoured that the US$750 million dual-tranche Senior Secured Reserve-Based Lending facility for Heirs Energies has been recognised as Best Oil & Gas Deal of the Year by the EMEA Finance Project Finance Awards.

“This recognition underscores the importance of well-structured, Africa-focused financing in supporting indigenous energy companies with strong governance, high-quality assets and clear long-term growth plans. Afreximbank was proud to support this landmark transaction, which demonstrates how African financial institutions can help mobilise capital for strategic businesses that advance energy security, production capacity and sustainable value creation across the continent.

“We congratulate Heirs Energies and all the partners involved in the transaction and are pleased to see this important financing recognised on such a respected international platform.”

Samuel Nwanze, Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer of Heirs Energies, added: “This award validates the strength of the transaction and the confidence our financing partners placed in Heirs Energies.

“The facility was designed to support our long-term growth strategy, enabling continued investment in field development, production optimisation, and sustainable value creation. We are pleased to see the transaction recognised on such a respected global platform.”

The financing represented a major milestone in Heirs Energies’ evolution from acquisition-led financing to a capital structure aligned with the long-term development profile of its reserves. It further reinforced the Company’s position as a leading indigenous energy producer and demonstrated the ability of African institutions to finance transformational African businesses.

The EMEA Finance Project Finance Awards recognise outstanding transactions across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, celebrating excellence, innovation, and impact in project and structured finance.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

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What Human Resource (HR) Professionals Gain from Automation

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June 9, 2026

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HR

Four examples of automation supporting HR staff

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Human resource people are concerned. As automation becomes more featured in modern digital technologies, many HR staff are asking the same question: will automation replace me?

 

Their fears are not unfounded. According to surveys conducted by Gartner (https://apo-opa.co/4uo4fGQ), some companies are using AI as an excuse to reduce HR headcounts, and 79% of Chief HR Officers told AMS (https://apo-opa.co/4xj8Qg9) that they see notable concerns about job security among their teams.

 

Supporting human abilities

 

However, a report published last year by the International Labour Organisation (https://apo-opa.co/3SaBQGM) found that AI and automation are unlikely to replace HR staff. Instead, automation is producing significant productivity improvements for HR staff, says Mignon Wolmarans, HR Product Manager at Deel Local Payroll.

 

“HR jobs require people with complex problem-solving, creativity, and strong interpersonal skills. These are not abilities that a machine or software can replace. But HR people spend most of their time on manual tasks that actually reduce their ability to focus on priorities where their skills are needed the most.”

 

This observation comes from working with clients who adopt automation in their HR environments, she adds.

 

“We sometimes encounter reluctance when we bring up automation, and the resistance is usually around a comfort with manual processes or gaps in training and skills that reduce people’s confidence in technology. But when we work with them to overcome those concerns, they love what automation does and how it gives them more autonomy and focus.”

 

How automation supports HR

 

Modern HR platforms, cloud software, can automate many routine HR tasks, either as processes designed by HR teams or as ready-to-use native features. These latter features match frequent HR tasks that would otherwise require significant manual processing, input from multiple people, or both.

People are most reluctant to adopt automation because of skills gaps, which feeds into fears that the technology will replace them

 

Some examples include:

 

  • Leave management: Automate accruals based on length of service, salary grade, or a combination of the two. Automation applies forfeiture rules automatically, and if an employee’s tenure ends, leave encashment is calculated and processed in a single automated action.

 

  • Claims: Self-service custom forms and document attachments streamline overtime and travel claims. These are processed through established rules and approvals, pushed to the responsible managers or heads of departments. As soon as a claim is approved, it automatically updates payslip information.

 

  • E-onboarding: Instead of HR practitioners capturing new employee information manually, ‌newcomers use online forms to complete their basic profile and address information, and attach key documents, all of which are loaded onto their profile and only require approval from HR.

 

  • Performance management: Set up different performance review layouts, forms, and templates for various roles, objectives, and indicators. Participants can attach supporting documents, while reviewers, managers, and other staff can submit their contributions. All the performance data feeds into central dashboards for complete control and visibility of the company’s performance.

 

These automations reduce manual workloads and errors while extending features to other stakeholders in different departments. Crucially, they don’t replace HR staff and instead give them the capacity to focus on intricate and human-centric activities that require more than capturing data and compiling reports. As mentioned, HR teams can also create automated processes and customised forms.

 

Creating digital confidence

 

The best HR software vendors offer training and skills honing for customers. For example, Deel Local Payroll provides training staff and extensive learning resources for its customers, helping them take charge of automation.

 

“People are most reluctant to adopt automation because of skills gaps, which feeds into fears that the technology will replace them. That’s why we have a dedicated training department, one-to-one training, and e-learning courses that help fill those gaps,” says Wolmarans.

 

The fear that automation will replace HR people is overstated, even if some company leaders consider it an option. Software cannot compare to what skilled HR professionals do best. But those same professionals focus overwhelmingly on manual tasks, taking time better spent on more complex and strategic priorities.

 

Automation doesn’t replace HR professionals. When the right platform and vendor support them, it makes them better at their jobs.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Deel Local Payroll, powered by PaySpace.

 

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