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Global ad market prospects further downgraded as retailers, automakers cut ad budgets and Chinese brands redirect spend due to US trade tariffs

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Global ad market

Growth forecasts for advertising spend have been downgraded further this year (-0.5pp to +6.2%) following an initial $20bn cut in March

Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are expected to cut ad budgets in the wake of mounting tariff pressures on supply chains

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 54.7% excluding China this year – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026

US ad market prospects cut by half a point to +5.2% as Chinese retailers such as Temu and Shein redirect spend to Canada, Australia and Europe

Global ad market growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5% next year, with a total of $1.23trn equivalent to almost $150 per capita

WARC Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025 update: Growth cut amid trade trepidations

12 June 2025 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.2% this year to $1.16trn, a downgrade of half a percentage point (pp) from WARC’s March forecast due to growing market volatility. Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are set to cut ad spend this year, while ad spend growth across technology and CPG brands is muted compared to previous rates.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, says: “The latest downgrade is attributable to a reticence to commit ad budgets across key markets in the second quarter. This cooling is underpinned by tariff trepidations and ebbing business and consumer confidence, prompting advertisers to front-load budgets and reallocate spend geographically, particularly towards Canada, Australia, and Europe.

“Trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies. Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins. Tech firms face growing uncertainty despite continued investment, and CPG brands are leaning into retail media as supply chains come under pressure. Across the board, agility is the new imperative.”

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.

Key media outlook: AI propels Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to 54.7% market share outside of China

Search to account for more than a fifth (21.5%) of the ad market this year, with spend rising 7.4% to $248.6bn despite regulatory threats
Social media – the largest single advertising medium globally – is poised to account for a quarter (25.8%) of all ad spend this year, at a total of $298.3bn
Retail media set to be fastest growing advertising medium this year (+14.4%), though trade disruption threatens ad receipts from consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands

Pure play internet – encompassing social media, retail media, online display, online classified and paid search – grew 11.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to $195.2bn, equivalent to 70.8% of all global ad spend. The growth rate is expected to ease to 9.9% during the second quarter and 8.9% over the second half of the year – to an annual total of $829.2bn (+9.8% vs. 2024).

The pure play internet sector is on course to top $1trn in ad revenue in 2028, by when it would account for almost 80% of all advertising spend. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon’s combined share of advertising spend outside of China is expected to reach 54.7% this year (+1.8pp vs. 2024) with an aggregated total of $524.4bn. This share is set to rise further – to 56.2% – next year.

Within the pure play internet total, search advertising spend is forecast to rise 7.4% this year and 6.8% next, by when the market would be worth $265.5bn – equivalent to 21.5% of all spend, up from 21.2% in 2024.

Within the paid search total, Google’s expected $213.3bn take would account for 85.8% of the market this year. The embedding of artificial intelligence into the search journey stands to disrupt ad revenue models, but Google’s dominance in search advertising will likely persist in the near term, aided by SMEs.

Social media is now set to account for over a quarter of all ad spend this year. A strong first quarter rise of 14.9% precedes an expected slowdown, with growth averaging 11.2% over the coming three quarters as tariffs begin to impact Asian brands disproportionally. The social market is still on track to grow 12.0% to $298.3bn this year.

​​Meta last month outlined plans for an end-to-end AI solution covering the generation of creative, ad placement and performance optimisation – primarily for its long tail of small advertisers rather than large brands. Meta’s ad business is forecast to grow 12.6% to $142.1bn this year, a cooling from the 18.4% rise recorded in 2024.

Retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing medium tracked by WARC this year, with an anticipated rise of 14.4% to a total value of $176.2bn. This represents a 15.2% share of global ad spend this year.

Amazon’s retail media ad business grew 21.0% to $13.3bn during the first quarter, accounting for a third (33.4%) of the global retail media market. WARC projects Amazon’s ad income will grow by 16.1% to $60.6bn this year. A further rise, of 14.9%, is forecast next year, giving Amazon a 35.4% of global retail media spend and 5.7% of all advertising spend worldwide. Like other online retailers, Amazon is exposed to tariffs imposed on its Chinese sellers, thought to be well over half of all vendors on the platform.

Global video advertising spend is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2025 to $183.9bn, equating to 15.9% of all spend this year. The contraction is driven by a continued decline in linear TV, which still represents over three-quarters of the total video market.

Linear TV spend is expected to fall by 6.3% this year – a drop exacerbated by 2024 major sporting and political events. Notably, 2025 marks the first year that retail media will command a greater share of global ad spend than linear TV.

Video-on-demand (VOD) advertising is forecast to rise by 13.2% to $39.9bn, a downgrade from the 15.4% projected in March. Within this, Netflix is due to see ad billings double this year (from a small base) due to the relative resilience of its ad tier during economic downturns.

Key product sector trends: Tariff trepidations hit retailers and automakers

Automotive ad spend down 4.0% this year as manufacturing stalls and key players pare back on brand building
Retailers set to reduce ad spend by 6.1% as margins tighten; US retailers are vulnerable to disruption among Chinese suppliers
Ad growth set to slow markedly among tech & electronic and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands as barriers to trade impair access to components

The automotive industry invested $56.8bn in advertising last year with almost a quarter (22.9%) going to premium video formats. However, budgets are shifting from video towards digital platforms, with automotive spend on social ads surpassing linear TV for the first time in 2025.

Despite WARC’s projected 4.0% cut in automotive advertising spend this year (an improvement on the 7.3% originally projected in March), the sector should rebound next year with a 7.5% rise pushing spend to a total of $58.6bn.

Retail, with projected ad spend of $166.1bn this year (14.3% of the global ad market), faces a fall of 6.1% from 2024 levels. This largely reflects impending US trade tariffs on key goods and raw materials, which are poised to increase costs for global retailers, particularly those heavily reliant on Chinese imports such as Amazon and Walmart.

Retailers are set to accelerate shifts in marketing strategies in response to changing cost structures and consumer behaviour. As predicted in March, large Chinese retailers targeting US consumers – including Temu and Shein – have reallocated advertising spend to other markets such as Canada, Australia and Europe.

The tech and electronics sector is expected to spend $90.3bn on advertising this year. This year-on-year rise of 5.5% represents a cut from our +6.2% forecast in March, and is a sharp slowdown from the 24.3% rise recorded last year. Tariffs are driving the sector to adjust go-to-market strategies, shifting investments toward less-affected regions or different product lines to buffer against hardware margin erosion.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies experienced their weakest first quarter sales revenues since the pandemic. Further, with tariffs reaching as high as 145% for Chinese imports and additional tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, CPG companies are facing major disruption to their established supply chains.

WARC expects core CPG sectors, such as soft drinks (+7.1%), toiletries & cosmetics (+7.2%) and household & domestic (+4.2%) to record growth in advertising spend at a global level this year, though all see a significant slowdown from 2024. Taken together, the CPG sector is expected to increase advertising spend by 6.7% this year to a total of $200.5bn.

Key market outlook: US growth prospects cut as Chinese brands look elsewhere

US ad market expected to post a +5.2% rise this year, less than half that recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and has been cut by half a point since March
Canadian ad spend growth set to ease to 3.5% this year despite some Chinese advertisers redirecting spend from the US
The Chinese ad market continues to struggle with weak domestic demand; growth is set to slow to 7.2% this year
The UK, German, French and Japanese economies are all stalling and present a severe risk of stagflation over the forecast period

WARC’s latest forecast suggests the US ad market will grow 5.2% this year to $451.6bn, half the growth rate recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and representing a 0.5 point downgrade from our March forecast. The US ad market – the largest worldwide with a 39.0% share – faces major headwinds including tariff uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, lower consumer demand and stagflation.

Despite a strong first quarter performance – +7.6% to $105.7bn, boosted by Chinese brands accelerating spend ahead of the anticipated tariff changes – US ad market growth is expected to slow significantly through to year-end.

Chinese brands appear to be redirecting ad spend to Canada to negate US market barriers, yet Canadian ad growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year amid deteriorating economic conditions. The IMF had downgraded Canada’s GDP growth forecast by 0.6pp to 1.4%, with the Bank of Canada projecting growth rate to approximately +0.5% in 2025.

Digital platforms dominate Canada’s media landscape, projected to capture 77.6% of the total market this year. This digital transformation stems from granular targeting capabilities drawing advertisers away from traditional media, with retail media now fuelling additional growth.

China is experiencing significant structural shifts, characterised by increasingly price-conscious consumers and a digital ecosystem dominated by major players including ByteDance (Douyin), Alibaba, and Tencent, creating challenges for smaller platforms. Short-form video has become instrumental in brand promotion in China, while marketers are prioritising performance marketing over brand building initiatives.

Projected US tariffs are expected to dull China’s economic growth by 0.2 points in 2025, creating economic uncertainty and prompting a downward revision of our 2025 advertising growth expectations to 7.2% (from 8.3% in March). The outlook for 2026 has been upgraded to 7.9% growth (from 6.9%), reflecting the online sector’s resilience.

The AA/WARC Expenditure Report forecast for the UK ad market stands at +6.5% in 2025, to a total of £44.3bn ($54.7bn). The highly digitalised UK market sees online ads accounting for over four in five (84.6%) dollars this year, with social (+13.1% this year) and search (+8.2%) fuelling growth despite weak economic prospects.

Germany’s economy is also struggling, at just +0.4% expected growth by the OECD this year following a cut of 0.3pp from its last outlook. WARC forecasts a modest 2.9% rise in German advertising spend to €26.4bn ($29.5bn). Growth in France’s ad market is also set to be muted this year, at +2.7% to €18.8bn ($20.3bn). Japan faces a challenging outlook, too, with advertising spend expected to rise by 3.3% to ¥5.8trn ($39.0bn) this year.

 

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Africa gains governance momentum in the 2026 Chandler Good Government Index, but sustaining progress is the real test

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October 29, 2026

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Africa

Across Africa, average scores improved in six of the seven CGGI pillars over the past year, with the strongest gains in Helping People Rise and Financial Stewardship

This signals that stronger government capabilities are beginning to translate into tangible improvements in people’s lives

KIGALI, Rwanda, October 29, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa was the second best-performing region for governance progress in the 2026 Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI), with 71% of the African countries assessed in both 2025 and 2026 achieving higher overall scores. However, the continent remains the lowest-scoring region overall, highlighting the challenge of translating improvement in government capabilities into better outcomes for citizens.

 




 
 

These findings were highlighted by the Chandler Governance Group (CGG) at a joint session with the Rwanda Governance Board (RGB) to launch the 13th edition of the Rwanda Governance Scorecard at the Kigali Serena Hotel on Thursday, 22 October 2026.

“This year, Africa’s strongest gains came in Financial Stewardship, followed by Helping People Rise, the CGGI’s outcomes pillar. This signals that stronger government capabilities are beginning to translate into tangible improvements in people’s lives, from access to quality education and healthcare to the public finances that fund them. The task now is to sustain that progress over the coming years,” says Dinesh Naidu, Director (Knowledge) at CGG.

Now in its sixth edition, the CGGI assesses government capabilities and effectiveness across 133 countries representing 94% of the world’s population, up from 120 countries in 2025. It measures 35 equally weighted indicators across seven pillars, providing governments with a framework to benchmark performance, identify gaps and learn from the experience of other countries.

Globally, the findings point to improving governance performance. Of the 120 countries assessed in both 2025 and 2026, 61% recorded higher scores, representing the highest annual share of countries improving since the Index launched in 2021. However, longer-term progress has been less consistent, with only 43% of the 104 countries tracked since 2021 recording an overall improvement.

Africa’s leading governments

Mauritius remains Africa’s highest-ranked country, placing 55th globally, followed by Rwanda (62nd), Botswana (70th), Morocco (79th) and Tanzania (80th). South Africa ranks sixth on the continent, in 85th place globally.

Rwanda features prominently in the discussion, ranking 11th globally for Leadership & Foresight and emerging as the highest-ranked low-income country in the Index. It ranks 61 places above where its income alone would predict. Across the Index, government capabilities track citizen outcomes more closely than national wealth does, suggesting that strengthening government capabilities matter in delivering better outcomes for citizens.

The joint session brings together the CGGI’s international benchmarks and the Rwanda Governance Scorecard’s assessment of governance in the Rwandan context, creating an opportunity to consider both global perspectives and country-specific priorities.

Progress across key governance pillars

Across Africa, average scores improved in six of the seven CGGI pillars over the past year, with the strongest gains in Helping People Rise and Financial Stewardship. These improvements point to progress in areas associated with public services, including healthcare and education, as well as the management of public finances.

Longer-term trends also highlight areas of progress. Between 2021 and 2026, nearly every African country assessed across the period improved its Data Capability score, with Morocco recording the largest gains. Ghana’s overall score improved in 2026, supported by stronger Financial Stewardship, while South Africa continues to show relative strength in Robust Laws & Policies, ranking 44th globally, and Attractive Marketplace, ranking 48th.

Despite these gains, the scale of the challenge remains clear. Africa’s regional average is still below its 2021 level, 23 of the 35 African countries in the 2026 Index rank outside the global top 100, and none is in the top 50. Seven African countries joined the Index this year: Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gambia, Guinea, Lesotho, Liberia and Togo.

“Rankings provide a useful starting point, but the broader value of the CGGI lies in helping governments understand where they are making progress and where further work is needed. Sustained improvements depend on the ability to strengthen institutions, manage resources responsibly and turn policy into meaningful outcomes for citizens,” says Naidu.

A tool for learning and improvement

The CGGI is designed as a practical diagnostic tool, helping governments identify gaps, track progress over time, and learn from peers facing similar constraints. The collaboration with the RGB brings international benchmarking together with locally grounded assessment.

“Every country faces its own governance challenges and is driven by varying priorities. Governments that are willing to take stock of the evidence and learn from peers to strengthen their institutions are well placed to achieve real improvements,” concludes Naidu.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Chandler Governance Group.

 

 




 

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Spiro brings electric motorcycles and battery-swapping technology to Ghana, expanding its pan-African footprint

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October 29, 2026

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Spiro

The integrated offering aims to reduce daily operating costs and minimise downtime, with battery swaps completed in just two minutes and potential savings of up to USD 2 per day compared with petrol-powered motorcycles

ACCRA, Ghana, October 29, 2026/APO Group/ —

  • Spiro’s entry into Ghana introduces the Ekon 450 M1 V3 electric motorcycle and its battery-swapping solution, bringing a new mobility option to commercial riders and delivery fleets.
  • The integrated offering aims to reduce daily operating costs and minimise downtime, with battery swaps completed in just two minutes and potential savings of up to USD 2 per day compared with petrol-powered motorcycles.
  • Test rides and product demonstrations across Greater Accra will support the rollout and help riders experience the benefits of electric mobility.

 




 
 

Spiro (www.Spironet.com), Africa’s largest electric mobility company, is expanding its footprint in Ghana with the introduction of the Ekon 450 M1 V3 electric motorcycle and its battery-swapping solution. Combining electric two-wheelers with access to charged batteries, Spiro aims to make everyday transport more affordable and practical for riders while supporting Ghana’s transition towards sustainable mobility.

For commercial riders and delivery fleets, fuel expenses and time spent off the road directly affect daily earnings. Spiro’s integrated offering addresses both challenges: riders can exchange a depleted battery for a charged one at a Spiro battery-swapping station in just two minutes, while potentially saving up to USD 2 per day in operating costs compared with conventional petrol-powered motorcycles.

Ghana represents a major opportunity for electric mobility, with a rapidly growing two-wheeler market and increasing demand from commercial riders and delivery fleets

Designed to meet the everyday mobility needs of African riders, the Ekon 450 M1 V3 offers an alternative to petrol-powered motorcycles. Supported by Spiro’s battery-swapping technology, it allows riders to get back on the road without waiting for their motorcycle to recharge.

Auroasish Choudhuri Managing Director Central and West Africa, commented: “Our entry into Ghana is an important step in strengthening Spiro’s presence in West Africa. Our focus is on building a local ecosystem that riders can rely on, combining electric motorcycles with convenient access to battery swapping. By working closely with local partners and listening to riders’ needs, we aim to support the long-term adoption of electric mobility in Ghana.”

Kaushik Burman, CEO Mobility of Spiro said: “Ghana represents a major opportunity for electric mobility, with a rapidly growing two-wheeler market and increasing demand from commercial riders and delivery fleets. By bringing the Ekon 450 M1 V3 together with our battery-swapping solution, we are addressing two key barriers to adoption: operating costs and access to charging infrastructure. Our ambition is to build a strong foundation for electric mobility to scale across Ghana.”

To support its rollout, Spiro is engaging with prospective customers through test rides, product demonstrations and live demonstrations of its battery-swapping technology across Greater Accra. These activities give riders the opportunity to experience the Ekon 450 M1 V3 and understand how battery swapping can fit into their daily routines.

Mr Maxwell Dodd, Managing Director of Spiro Ghana, said: “For riders in Ghana, the value of electric mobility lies in what it can deliver every day: lower operating costs, less downtime and more time on the road. Through the Ekon 450 M1 V3 and our battery-swapping solution, we want to make those benefits accessible and support riders as they make the transition to electric motorcycles.”

Ghana forms part of Spiro’s wider expansion across Africa. Building on its recent USD 270 million equity funding round and an additional USD 18 million in debt financing from the Africa Go Green Fund, the company is scaling its electric mobility ecosystem with the ambition of establishing a presence in 20 African markets. Spiro is also preparing to enter new countries, including Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Spiro.

 

 




 

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Huawei Wireless Unveils Innovation Breakthroughs to Pioneer New Communications Networks

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October 29, 2026

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Huawei

The innovation breakthroughs for pioneering new communications networks include RetinaMIMO, new materials, and OSCAR solution among other root technologies. By tackling coverage, energy consumption, and capacity challenges, the breakthroughs drive ubiquitous experience, simplified and green networks, and superior spectral efficiency. The breakthroughs have unlocked a wealth of new capabilities, including the world’s first commercial U6 GHz device VitaAAU, GigaGreen Plus series, and UBBPi series.
Huawei promotes A2A-T standards and drives commercial open-source OpenAN through extensive partnerships to build an open telecom agent ecosystem.

 




 
 

SHANGHAI, CHINA – Media OutReach Newswire – 29 October 2026 – At Huawei Decoding China 2026, Fang Xiang, Corporate Vice President and President of Wireless Network Solution of Huawei, unveiled a series of innovation breakthroughs to pioneer new communications networks. The innovation breakthroughs mark major leaps in root technologies focused on ubiquitous experience, simplified and green networks, and superior spectral efficiency. With the breakthroughs, Huawei has launched the world’s first commercial U6 GHz device VitaAAU, GigaGreen Plus series, and UBBPi series. Additionally featuring the new progress in open ecosystem for telecom agents, the breakthroughs will lay a solid foundation for new communications networks.

With booming intelligent devices and services, new devices, traffic, and applications are taking shape in the mobile industry. The new devices are expanding network connectivity from people to things and agents, increasing the number of connections by 100 times. Device-cloud synergy for intelligent services calls for stronger uplink capabilities to support training and inference, shifting network focus from downlink dominance to both uplink and downlink. With new applications, come a diversity of new interaction modes, calling for higher standards in experience and driving networks to support ubiquitous steady ultra-low latency with a high reliability.

As the world steps into an intelligent era, the value of connectivity is not only about quantity—it’s more about quality. This has been inspiring Huawei to convert cutting-edge breakthroughs into the commercial practices of new communications networks by focusing on root technologies for ubiquitous experience, simplified and green networks, and superior spectral efficiency.

Pioneering ubiquitous experience

RetinaMIMO is a new pioneering technology designed to solve the challenge of concurrent ultra-high bandwidth and ubiquitous coverage. It features the industry’s first Retina scanning system that allows RF link topologies to be reconstructed to eliminate coverage collapse in the vertical direction. It also adopts a reconstructed antenna array architecture to address the diminishing marginal gains as array elements (AEs) increase.

Based on RetinaMIMO, Huawei has launched the world’s first commercial U6 GHz device VitaAAU. Compared with similar products with 1024 AEs, VitaAAU widens coverage by about 30%, enabling U6 GHz to match C-band in both horizontal and vertical directions. This enables operators to deliver U6 GHz coverage for new communications networks on their C-band sites, minimizing overall TCO. To date, VitaAAU has seen commercial adoption in the UAE and other markets, with peak downlink speeds exceeding 10 Gbps, making ubiquitous premium experience a reality.

Pioneering simplified, green networks

Huawei’s pioneering EP power amplifier (PA) architecture capitalizes on new materials and technologies to solve the problem of energy efficiency decline on higher frequency bands, maximizing energy conversion efficiency. The industry’s first-ever multimode dielectric filters allow antennas to have small dimensions and low power consumption on multi-channel networks with high frequency bands. Powered by new materials, technologies, and architectures, VitaAAU antenna is reduced to 1.5 m in diameter while supporting “0 Bit 0 Watt 0 Loss”, delivering superior energy saving efficiency. These innovations enable Huawei’s GigaGreen Plus series products to achieve significant reductions in dimensions, weight, and power consumption, better positioned to power simplified and green networks.

Pioneering superior spectral efficiency

Multi-band, multi-cell, and multi-user interference is a major restrictive factor of capacity. The time scaling of the Tau (τ) law is introduced to base stations for the first time to realize optimal dynamic resource scheduling across all domains based on the OSCAR solution. With low-latency bus and high-speed interconnect technology, a high-speed architecture is built to enable the real-time exchange of massive data. Thanks to software and hardware synergy, new UBBPi series products improve average user experience by 1.3 times while reducing power consumption by approximately 40%, further improving spectral and energy efficiency.

Pioneering open-source autonomous networks

Autonomous networks have emerged as an inevitable choice to deal with the growing AI services and increasing network complexity. RANSpirit is another industry first from Huawei, implementing single-domain network autonomy based on the telecom foundation model and digital twins. To date, RANSpirit is serving more than 1.2 million cells across 25 networks around the world, providing assistance to more than 2,000 engineers.

Extensive agent collaboration relies on an open, win-win ecosystem. This galvanizes Huawei to join industry partners to develop ecosystem standards, communities, and industry alliances. In terms of standards, Huawei adapts to the TM Forum, building a cross-agent foundation on the A2A-T standard and framework agreed upon by the industry. In terms of communities, Huawei jointly promotes neutral open-source communities and donates open-source agent components to the Linux Foundation, driving global collaboration and innovation. With regard to industry alliances, Huawei has taken the initiative to pool ecosystem strengths to accelerate business implementation based on the GSMA industry platform.

Fang concluded with the reiteration of Huawei’s unswerving pursuit of dual-drive innovation to promote new breakthroughs in mobile networks and work with partners from around the world to deepen the OpenAN ecosystem, advancing new communications networks through technological innovation and open collaboration.

FAQs

Q1: Why is it challenging to balance ultra-high bandwidth and ubiquitous coverage?

Ultra-high bandwidth depends on higher frequency bands. As we know, a higher frequency leads to a greater propagation loss of electromagnetic waves and a weaker ability for them to penetrate obstacles, because high-frequency signals attenuate fast and have short coverage distances, while ubiquitous coverage requires signals to travel a long distance in complex environments. Inherently, the two priorities pull in sharply opposite directions.

  




 

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