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Geopolitics and Energy Security: What Recent Moves Say about Africa’s Global Gas Role

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African Energy Chamber

With the European Union formalizing a ban on Russian LNG and gas imports from 2026 and 2027 respectively, Africa is uniquely positioned to leverage geopolitics to advance its energy development

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 9, 2026/APO Group/ –The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in early December 2025 to formally phase out Russian gas imports. Aligned with a broader strategy to diversify imports and strengthen security of supply, the agreement stipulates a full prohibition on both LNG and pipeline gas from 2026 and 2027 respectively. For African gas producers, this decision marks a strategic turning point: an opportunity to leverage geopolitics to attract long-term investment while prioritizing domestic energy needs.

European Diversification Creates Strategic Openings

The EU’s decision to introduce a legally binding prohibition on Russian gas imports forms a core pillar of the bloc’s REPowerEU roadmap – launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aimed at safeguarding energy supply. Under the provisional agreement, short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027. Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November 2027, contingent on storage targets being met. Amendments to existing contracts will be tightly restricted and cannot increase volumes.

The regulation also obliges EU member states to submit national diversification plans outlining how they intend to replace Russian supplies, while strengthening European Commission oversight. A parallel legislative proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected by the end of 2027. While Russian oil now accounts for less than 3% of EU imports, gas still represents around 13% – worth more than €15 billion annually – leaving Europe exposed to supply and security risks.

For African producers, this policy shift sends a clear signal: Europe is actively seeking new, reliable suppliers with the capacity to deliver long-term volumes under transparent, rules-based frameworks. The question is no longer whether demand exists, but how Africa positions itself to meet that demand on its own terms.

Africa: The Preferred Supplier

Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world

With its geographic advantage and strong resource base, Africa is well placed to respond. North Africa is the clear market of choice, with established export infrastructure already in place. Algeria, Egypt and Libya account for two-thirds of the continent’s output, and while production is set to expand into the 2030s, North Africa’s share is projected to fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge.

For Europe, this holds a strategic advantage. West and East African LNG producers sit astride both Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, enabling them to function as swing suppliers. This optionality allows producers to respond to price signals in Europe and Asia, arbitrage spot-market fluctuations and provide resilience during global supply disruptions – precisely the flexibility European buyers now value.

The resource base is equally compelling. Africa holds an estimated 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin off Tanzania and Mozambique alone contains 129 tcf, while Nigeria’s Niger Delta holds 113 tcf. While much of this potential remains underdeveloped, momentum is building. The year 2025 saw the start-up of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal, Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG. These projects send a clear message: Africa is capable and ready to supply global markets.

Balancing Global Demand with African Priorities

As European demand continues to grow, Africa faces a strategic balancing act: how to become a preferred global supplier while ensuring investment serves the continent’s development needs. With more than 600 million people still without access to electricity and 900 million lacking clean cooking solutions, it is increasingly important to move beyond historical contractual models rooted primarily in extraction. By 2050, African gas demand is projected to rise by 60%, reaffirming the need to design contracts that support long-term economic growth rather than short-term export gains.

One mechanism already gaining traction is the integration of domestic market obligations into LNG projects. The GTA project offers a clear example. Developed as a cross-border LNG hub for Mauritania and Senegal, the project earmarks 35 million standard cubic feet per day of its output for domestic use in each country, supporting power generation and industrial development alongside exports to global markets. Rather than viewing exports and domestic consumption as competing priorities, this framework links them directly: as production and exports grow, so too does gas availability for local markets.

“By modernizing contractual structures and embedding development considerations into gas investments, African producers can ensure that rising global demand translates into accelerated progress at home. Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber.

This message will take center stage at African Energy Week 2026, where policymakers, producers and financiers will convene to redefine Africa’s role in a fragmenting global energy order. With Europe looking south for security of supply, Africa has a rare opportunity in 2026: to leverage geopolitics not just for capital inflows, but for a future where energy abundance translates into broad-based prosperity at home.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Energy

Gwede Mantashe Joins African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 as South Africa’s Petroleum Reforms Open the Orange Basin to Drilling

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African Energy Chamber

A new petroleum law and the prospect of fresh Orange Basin drilling is resetting South Africa’s upstream, and Minister Mantashe is taking the AEW host nation’s case to the global market

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Gwede Mantashe, Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources of the Republic of South Africa, has been confirmed as a featured speaker at the upcoming African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Conference and Exhibition, where he is expected to lay out the reform agenda reshaping the country’s upstream oil and gas sector and its drive to convert long-stranded offshore gas into production.

 

South Africa is pursuing one of the most significant upstream overhauls in its history, anchored by a new law that gives oil and gas their own regulatory regime for the first time. The reforms position the host nation as both a destination for exploration capital and a future producer along an Atlantic margin that has drawn the world’s largest oil companies to the region.

At the center of the shift is the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act (UPRDA), which President Cyril Ramaphosa signed into law in October 2024. The Act separates petroleum from the mining statute that has long regulated both sectors. It also creates a single petroleum right covering exploration and production along with a 20% carried interest for the state. The UPRDA awaits a presidential proclamation to take effect, and implementing regulations that went through a further round of industry comment in early 2026 are now being finalized.

A clear petroleum framework and a credible state partner are what international capital needs to commit to the Orange Basin

Mantashe has emerged as the most forceful advocate for accelerating the sector. He has long-argued that South Africa must shift from importing refined products to producing its own, warning that dependence on foreign supply leaves the economy exposed to global price shocks. This shift becomes increasingly more importance in the current global climate, where supply security has become a major challenge – particularly for import-reliance economies such as South Africa. As such, Mantashe has repeatedly pressed for faster licensing and fewer legal delays to exploration. AEW 2026 is a key platform to bring this discussion to a global audience.

“South Africa has the geology for exploration. Now it is building the regulatory certainty it needs to turn discoveries into bankable projects,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “A clear petroleum framework and a credible state partner are what international capital needs to commit to the Orange Basin.”

Offshore, TotalEnergies – operator of Block 3B/4B in the Orange Basin – is preparing to begin drilling in South African waters in 2026 pending final regulatory approvals. The acreage sits on trend with the Venus discovery in neighboring Namibia, where TotalEnergies is developing the basin’s first oil project.

Onshore, momentum is building in Mpumalanga, where gas developer Kinetiko Energy’s Amersfoort project has logged sustained high-flow results and is advancing plans for an LNG pilot plant. Mantashe has also signaled that government is moving to lift the long-standing moratorium on shale gas development, with the Petroleum Agency of South Africa (PASA) estimating recoverable Karoo reserves at 209 tcf.

Mantashe is also expected to report on successes of the South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC), the state entity formed in May 2025 through the merger of PetroSA, iGas and the Strategic Fuel Fund. Positioned as the country’s petroleum champion, SANPC is intended to anchor state participation across the value chain as South Africa works toward 6 GW of gas-fired power by 2030.

As AEW 2026 prepares to convene policymakers, investors and operators at the Cape Town International Convention Centre from October 12-16, Mantashe’s address carries added weight as the host nation’s signal to the market. His message is expected to be direct: South Africa is open for upstream investment and ready to move from potential to production.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Business

Mining Review Africa expands coverage to include global mining news

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vukagroup

The expanded editorial scope aligns with Vuka Group’s commitment to delivering timely, relevant and insightful content that supports informed decision-making across the mining value chain

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Vuka Group’s Mining Review Africa (https://WeAreVUKA.com), a leading source of mining industry news and insights, is expanding its editorial coverage to include major mining developments from around the world.

 

While Mining Review Africa remains firmly committed to reporting on the opportunities, challenges and successes shaping Africa’s mining sector, readers will now also benefit from coverage of international projects, investments, technologies, commodity markets and policy developments influencing the global mining industry.

The move reflects the increasingly interconnected nature of the mining sector, where developments in one region can have significant implications for investment decisions, supply chains, commodity markets, and mining operations worldwide.

Expanding our coverage enables us to deliver a more comprehensive view of the mining industry while maintaining our strong focus on Africa

“As the mining industry continues to evolve on a global scale, our readers are seeking greater context around international developments that impact Africa and the wider resources sector,” said Mining Review Africa Editor-in-Chief, Gerard Peter.

“Expanding our coverage enables us to deliver a more comprehensive view of the mining industry while maintaining our strong focus on Africa.”

Readers can expect enhanced reporting on major mining projects, mergers and acquisitions, sustainability initiatives, technological innovation, critical minerals, energy transition developments and regulatory changes from key mining jurisdictions worldwide.

The expanded editorial scope aligns with Vuka Group’s commitment to delivering timely, relevant and insightful content that supports informed decision-making across the mining value chain.

Mining Review Africa has established itself as a trusted voice within the African mining industry, providing news, analysis and thought leadership for mining professionals, investors, suppliers and policymakers. By broadening its coverage, the publication aims to give readers a deeper understanding of the global forces shaping the future of mining, while continuing to place African mining stories at the centre of its reporting.

For readers, this means access to a wider range of industry intelligence, bringing together African mining news and key international developments on a single trusted platform.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of VUKA Group.

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Energy

Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027 to Define Libya’s Next Phase of Energy Expansion in Tripoli

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Etu Energias

Returning for its fifth edition, LEES 2027 will advance Libya’s $18 billion energy pipeline, targeting 1.6–2 million bpd, gas megaprojects and renewables

TRIPOLI, Libya, June 4, 2026/APO Group/ –The fifth edition of the Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027 returns to Tripoli on January 23–25. Positioned as Libya’s landmark energy event, LEES serves as the country’s premier international platform for investment, technical collaboration and private sector engagement across oil, gas, power and renewables.

 

LEES 2027 builds directly on the outcomes of LEES 2026, which marked Libya’s shift from post-recovery stabilization to execution-led development. The 2026 edition established an estimated $18 billion pipeline of energy and infrastructure projects and repositioned the sector from ambition to delivery, setting the foundation for the 2027 summit’s execution-focused agenda.

 

A central focus for 2027 is upstream acceleration. The National Oil Corporation’s (NOC) 2026 licensing round introduced 22 on- and offshore exploration blocks, the country’s first in 17 years, alongside a mandate to drill 70 to 100 new wells annually. With support from the Ministry of Oil & Gas, LEES 2027 will evaluate initial seismic results, contract awards and the transition from exploration rights into operational development phases.

Production expansion remains a core investment theme. Libya’s output stabilized at approximately 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, with LEES 2027 targeting pathways toward 1.6 million bpd in the near term and a long-term ambition of 2 million bpd. The summit – endorsed directly by the NOC – will focus on infrastructure bottlenecks, field optimization and midstream capacity required to support higher output levels.

 

Gas monetization and large-scale infrastructure development will also feature prominently. Eni’s $8 billion offshore Structures A&E project remains on track for completion by late 2027, while discussions around Chevron-linked shale studies highlight potential resources estimated at 123 trillion cubic feet of gas and 18 billion barrels of oil across key basins, including Sirte, Murzuq and Ghadames.

Moving from licensing and planning into large-scale execution and infrastructure delivery, LEES 2027 is a focal point for this critical transformation in Libya’s energy sector

 

The sector aims to attract an estimated $3–4 billion in annual drilling investment following unified drilling regulations announced in 2026. LEES 2027 will assess early implementation outcomes, including operational safety, fiscal predictability and contract execution efficiency across upstream assets.

 

Meanwhile, Libya’s 4 GW solar roadmap is advancing, anchored by TotalEnergies’ 500 MW Sadada solar project. Supported by the Renewable Energy Authority of Libya as an institutional partner, LEES 2027 is expected to focus on financial close milestones, construction timelines and the scaling of independent power purchase structures within the national grid strategy.

 

Human capital development will also remain a strategic pillar at next year’s event, with the Energy JEEL initiative having trained more than 900 youth participants aged 15–35 in engineering, digital systems and energy operations, forming a national talent pipeline aligned with Libya’s long-term energy transition and industrial expansion goals.

Against this backdrop, LEES 2027 – which takes place at the Tripoli International Convention Center – will serve as the sector’s execution benchmark, converting licensing frameworks, infrastructure commitments and production targets into operational outcomes across hydrocarbons, power generation and next-generation energy systems.

 

“Moving from licensing and planning into large-scale execution and infrastructure delivery, LEES 2027 is a focal point for this critical transformation in Libya’s energy sector,” says James Chester, CEO of LEES 2027 organizer Energy Capital & Power. “It will be a defining platform where investment commitments from 2026 are translated into measurable production, capacity expansion and long-term energy security outcomes.”

 

Join industry leaders at the Libya Energy & Economic Summit 2027 in Tripoli and explore investment opportunities in one of Africa’s most dynamic energy markets. LEES 2027 offers a premier platform for partnerships, innovation and sector growth. Visit www.LibyaSummit.com to secure your participation. To sponsor or participate as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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