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Geopolitics and Energy Security: What Recent Moves Say about Africa’s Global Gas Role

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African Energy Chamber

With the European Union formalizing a ban on Russian LNG and gas imports from 2026 and 2027 respectively, Africa is uniquely positioned to leverage geopolitics to advance its energy development

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 9, 2026/APO Group/ –The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in early December 2025 to formally phase out Russian gas imports. Aligned with a broader strategy to diversify imports and strengthen security of supply, the agreement stipulates a full prohibition on both LNG and pipeline gas from 2026 and 2027 respectively. For African gas producers, this decision marks a strategic turning point: an opportunity to leverage geopolitics to attract long-term investment while prioritizing domestic energy needs.

European Diversification Creates Strategic Openings

The EU’s decision to introduce a legally binding prohibition on Russian gas imports forms a core pillar of the bloc’s REPowerEU roadmap – launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aimed at safeguarding energy supply. Under the provisional agreement, short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027. Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November 2027, contingent on storage targets being met. Amendments to existing contracts will be tightly restricted and cannot increase volumes.

The regulation also obliges EU member states to submit national diversification plans outlining how they intend to replace Russian supplies, while strengthening European Commission oversight. A parallel legislative proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected by the end of 2027. While Russian oil now accounts for less than 3% of EU imports, gas still represents around 13% – worth more than €15 billion annually – leaving Europe exposed to supply and security risks.

For African producers, this policy shift sends a clear signal: Europe is actively seeking new, reliable suppliers with the capacity to deliver long-term volumes under transparent, rules-based frameworks. The question is no longer whether demand exists, but how Africa positions itself to meet that demand on its own terms.

Africa: The Preferred Supplier

Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world

With its geographic advantage and strong resource base, Africa is well placed to respond. North Africa is the clear market of choice, with established export infrastructure already in place. Algeria, Egypt and Libya account for two-thirds of the continent’s output, and while production is set to expand into the 2030s, North Africa’s share is projected to fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge.

For Europe, this holds a strategic advantage. West and East African LNG producers sit astride both Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, enabling them to function as swing suppliers. This optionality allows producers to respond to price signals in Europe and Asia, arbitrage spot-market fluctuations and provide resilience during global supply disruptions – precisely the flexibility European buyers now value.

The resource base is equally compelling. Africa holds an estimated 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin off Tanzania and Mozambique alone contains 129 tcf, while Nigeria’s Niger Delta holds 113 tcf. While much of this potential remains underdeveloped, momentum is building. The year 2025 saw the start-up of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal, Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG. These projects send a clear message: Africa is capable and ready to supply global markets.

Balancing Global Demand with African Priorities

As European demand continues to grow, Africa faces a strategic balancing act: how to become a preferred global supplier while ensuring investment serves the continent’s development needs. With more than 600 million people still without access to electricity and 900 million lacking clean cooking solutions, it is increasingly important to move beyond historical contractual models rooted primarily in extraction. By 2050, African gas demand is projected to rise by 60%, reaffirming the need to design contracts that support long-term economic growth rather than short-term export gains.

One mechanism already gaining traction is the integration of domestic market obligations into LNG projects. The GTA project offers a clear example. Developed as a cross-border LNG hub for Mauritania and Senegal, the project earmarks 35 million standard cubic feet per day of its output for domestic use in each country, supporting power generation and industrial development alongside exports to global markets. Rather than viewing exports and domestic consumption as competing priorities, this framework links them directly: as production and exports grow, so too does gas availability for local markets.

“By modernizing contractual structures and embedding development considerations into gas investments, African producers can ensure that rising global demand translates into accelerated progress at home. Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber.

This message will take center stage at African Energy Week 2026, where policymakers, producers and financiers will convene to redefine Africa’s role in a fragmenting global energy order. With Europe looking south for security of supply, Africa has a rare opportunity in 2026: to leverage geopolitics not just for capital inflows, but for a future where energy abundance translates into broad-based prosperity at home.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Leadership Roundtable Brings Gas Producer Coordination to Paris

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Etu Energias

As African gas producers navigate rising domestic demand, global LNG competition and a renewed push for investment, the GECF Leadership Roundtable at the Invest in African Energy 2027 Forum will examine how greater coordination can support project development, market access and long-term gas monetization

PARIS, France, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa’s gas industry is entering a period in which cooperation between producing countries could become increasingly important. Demand is rising, LNG markets are being reshaped by geopolitical disruptions and new supply, while major gas developments across the continent continue to compete for capital.

 




  

Against this backdrop, the GECF Leadership Roundtable at the Invest in African Energy (IAE) Forum 2027 in Paris will bring the perspectives of gas-producing countries into a discussion focused on the commercial and strategic priorities shaping the sector.

The session comes as Africa continues to expand its role in global LNG markets. The GECF forecasts LNG exports from the continent to reach about 110 billion cubic meters (bcm), or 80 million tons per annum (mtpa), by 2030, rising to 215 bcm, or 160 mtpa, by 2050. The outlook spans producers including Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Mauritania, Senegal and Nigeria, while GECF projections point to growing LNG trade with Asia and within African markets.

Recent developments have reinforced the strategic value of that supply base. Tanzania’s long-delayed $42 billion LNG project has gained renewed attention as disruptions to Middle Eastern gas supplies have increased the value of diversified LNG sources, while ExxonMobil is advancing preparations for Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG project after years of delay.

For African producers, however, expanding exports is only one part of the equation. Domestic gas demand is rising at the same time that governments are seeking to use gas to improve electricity supply, support industrial development and create new revenue streams. That creates a need to balance export projects with domestic offtake, pipeline infrastructure, gas processing and gas-to-power development.

Coordination between producing countries can help address some of these challenges. Sharing experience on fiscal frameworks, project development, infrastructure and market access can help governments compete for investment while strengthening the case for regional gas infrastructure and cross-border trade.

The global market is also becoming more competitive. Reuters reported this month that gas and LNG infrastructure investment is expanding across multiple regions, with Asia accounting for the largest share of planned LNG import capacity. At the same time, disruptions to Middle Eastern supply have reinforced concerns around security of supply and increased the strategic importance of alternative producers. That creates an opening for African gas producers, but converting that opportunity into projects will require capital, infrastructure and credible long-term markets.

The GECF Leadership Roundtable at IAE 2027, taking place in Paris from May 11-13, will provide a senior-level setting to examine those issues alongside the investors and project developers needed to advance them. The wider forum is designed to connect African energy markets with global capital, with a focus on projects spanning gas, LNG, infrastructure and power.

For African gas producers, the question is how effectively its resources can be developed, connected to markets and converted into reliable energy and industrial growth. The Paris roundtable will put producer coordination at the center of that investment conversation.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 

 




 

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Joint Statement: Afreximbank and African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation (APPO) formally establish Africa Energy Bank

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Afreximbank

The creation of the Africa Energy Bank reaffirms African governments’ determination to secure their own energy future

ABUJA, Nigeria, October 31, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) and the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation (APPO) have formally announced the establishment of the Africa Energy Bank (AEB). The announcement was made during the AEB’s inaugural general meeting held in Abuja, Nigeria, on 31 October 2026.
 




 

The creation of the Africa Energy Bank reaffirms African governments’ determination to secure their own energy future. This move is in recognition that significant investments in energy generation and transmission was required to accelerating industrial growth and to leveraging the tremendous opportunities from the emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI).

The Bank is being established at a time when the continent’s energy investment needs are estimated at US$200 billion. Traditional providers of short- and long-term financing to Africa’s energy sector are withdrawing funding from fossil fuels, even as oil and gas remain vital to the continent’s energy systems. The Africa Energy Bank aims to bridge this financing gap while supporting a just energy transition for African countries.

With an authorised capital of US$5 billion, the AEB will support projects across the energy value chain, including exploration and production, transportation, processing, refining, and distribution. These investments are intended to strengthen productive capacity, reduce reliance on imported petroleum products, and promote intra-African trade in energy goods. The Bank’s mandate also includes promoting robust African participation in the continent’s energy sector to ensure that Africa’s energy future is shaped by Africans.

The AEB will operate as an independent, supranational pan-African financial institution. It will seek to attract investments from governments, national oil companies, financial institutions, and private investors to support energy development across the continent.

Resolutions passed at the first general assembly included the appointment of the Bank’s inaugural President, Mr Helmy Ghazi, and the formation of its first Board of Directors, comprising members from the public and private sectors as well as leading policy institutions from across the continent.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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5 Investment Opportunities Putting Congo Energy & Investment Forum (CEIF) 2027 on the Map for Central Africa

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CEIF 2027 connects investors with Congo’s energy projects and local partners, while providing entry points for commercial opportunities across Central Africa

BRAZZAVILLE, Republic of the Congo, November 2, 2026/APO Group/ –The Republic of Congo’s expanding oil and gas developments are creating new opportunities for investment, engineering contracts and commercial partnerships across the energy value chain. With offshore discoveries, mature-field redevelopment and three million tons per year of LNG capacity, the country is entering a new phase of energy development that requires capital, technology and international partnerships.

 




 
 

The Congo Energy & Investment Forum (CEIF) 2027, taking place June 1-3 in Brazzaville, will serve as the official platform connecting Central African energy decision-makers, operators, investors and service companies. Organized by Energy Capital & Power in collaboration with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, the forum will bring together public- and private-sector stakeholders to advance investment discussions, facilitate partnerships and connect companies with emerging opportunities across the region.

Connect With Central Africa’s Energy Decision-Makers

CEIF 2027 will provide a platform to engage directly with Congolese authorities, regulators, national energy companies and policymakers shaping the region’s energy investment landscape. Taking place in partnership with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, the event offers a bridge between the country’s policymakers and public- and private-sector companies. Conversations with decision-makers can help investors understand national development priorities, gain insight into the regulatory environment and identify opportunities for market entry or expansion.

Capitalize on Congo’s Upstream Investment and Production Ambitions

As Congo targets production growth toward 500,000 barrels per day, operators are pursuing new exploration and mature-field redevelopment to increase output. TotalEnergies’ 2026 Moho G discovery could unlock an estimated 100 million barrels of recoverable resources alongside the existing Moho F development, illustrating the potential to connect new discoveries to established offshore infrastructure. Meanwhile, Perenco and Trident Energy are pursuing development and redevelopment opportunities across mature assets, including well reactivation and infrastructure upgrades.

These activities could create opportunities for drilling contractors, engineering firms and production technology providers. CEIF 2027 offers a platform to explore project requirements and investment opportunities across Congo’s upstream sector.

Unlock Opportunities Across LNG, Gas and Power Infrastructure

With LNG exports established and liquefaction capacity reaching three million tons per year in 2026, Congo is looking towards its next phase of gas development. This will depend on sustaining feedgas supplies, connecting additional resources and expanding infrastructure.

Beyond LNG, Congo’s plans to expand electricity generation and improve transmission and distribution infrastructure present opportunities for power developers, equipment suppliers and investors. These priorities create potential opportunities for upstream operators, engineering companies, technology providers and investors interested in gas processing, power generation and distribution. CEIF provides a platform to advance these priorities.

Showcase Solutions and Build Commercial Partnerships at the Exhibition

The CEIF 2027 exhibition will provide a platform for companies to showcase their technologies, equipment and services directly to energy operators, policymakers, investors and potential clients across Central Africa.

Exhibitors will have opportunities to demonstrate solutions, engage with local service providers and identify potential partnerships across drilling, engineering, infrastructure and energy technology. For companies seeking to enter or expand in the region, the exhibition offers a direct route to building commercial relationships, exploring procurement opportunities and positioning their services for upcoming projects.

Access New Projects and Financing Opportunities

Turning project opportunities into investments requires clarity on development priorities, infrastructure requirements and financing structures. CEIF’s discussions will give participants an opportunity to assess the projects shaping Congo’s energy sector and engage with potential commercial and institutional counterparts.

Investors, lenders and project developers can use these exchanges to identify areas where financing, technical expertise or new investment structures may help advance projects across oil and gas, power generation and downstream industries.

Organized by Energy Capital & Power in collaboration with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, CEIF 2027 will enable candid dialogue, facilitating new investments and deals in the country’s energy sector. For more information, visit www.congoenergyinvestment.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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