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Geopolitics and Energy Security: What Recent Moves Say about Africa’s Global Gas Role

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African Energy Chamber

With the European Union formalizing a ban on Russian LNG and gas imports from 2026 and 2027 respectively, Africa is uniquely positioned to leverage geopolitics to advance its energy development

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 9, 2026/APO Group/ –The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in early December 2025 to formally phase out Russian gas imports. Aligned with a broader strategy to diversify imports and strengthen security of supply, the agreement stipulates a full prohibition on both LNG and pipeline gas from 2026 and 2027 respectively. For African gas producers, this decision marks a strategic turning point: an opportunity to leverage geopolitics to attract long-term investment while prioritizing domestic energy needs.

European Diversification Creates Strategic Openings

The EU’s decision to introduce a legally binding prohibition on Russian gas imports forms a core pillar of the bloc’s REPowerEU roadmap – launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aimed at safeguarding energy supply. Under the provisional agreement, short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027. Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November 2027, contingent on storage targets being met. Amendments to existing contracts will be tightly restricted and cannot increase volumes.

The regulation also obliges EU member states to submit national diversification plans outlining how they intend to replace Russian supplies, while strengthening European Commission oversight. A parallel legislative proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected by the end of 2027. While Russian oil now accounts for less than 3% of EU imports, gas still represents around 13% – worth more than €15 billion annually – leaving Europe exposed to supply and security risks.

For African producers, this policy shift sends a clear signal: Europe is actively seeking new, reliable suppliers with the capacity to deliver long-term volumes under transparent, rules-based frameworks. The question is no longer whether demand exists, but how Africa positions itself to meet that demand on its own terms.

Africa: The Preferred Supplier

Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world

With its geographic advantage and strong resource base, Africa is well placed to respond. North Africa is the clear market of choice, with established export infrastructure already in place. Algeria, Egypt and Libya account for two-thirds of the continent’s output, and while production is set to expand into the 2030s, North Africa’s share is projected to fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge.

For Europe, this holds a strategic advantage. West and East African LNG producers sit astride both Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, enabling them to function as swing suppliers. This optionality allows producers to respond to price signals in Europe and Asia, arbitrage spot-market fluctuations and provide resilience during global supply disruptions – precisely the flexibility European buyers now value.

The resource base is equally compelling. Africa holds an estimated 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin off Tanzania and Mozambique alone contains 129 tcf, while Nigeria’s Niger Delta holds 113 tcf. While much of this potential remains underdeveloped, momentum is building. The year 2025 saw the start-up of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal, Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG. These projects send a clear message: Africa is capable and ready to supply global markets.

Balancing Global Demand with African Priorities

As European demand continues to grow, Africa faces a strategic balancing act: how to become a preferred global supplier while ensuring investment serves the continent’s development needs. With more than 600 million people still without access to electricity and 900 million lacking clean cooking solutions, it is increasingly important to move beyond historical contractual models rooted primarily in extraction. By 2050, African gas demand is projected to rise by 60%, reaffirming the need to design contracts that support long-term economic growth rather than short-term export gains.

One mechanism already gaining traction is the integration of domestic market obligations into LNG projects. The GTA project offers a clear example. Developed as a cross-border LNG hub for Mauritania and Senegal, the project earmarks 35 million standard cubic feet per day of its output for domestic use in each country, supporting power generation and industrial development alongside exports to global markets. Rather than viewing exports and domestic consumption as competing priorities, this framework links them directly: as production and exports grow, so too does gas availability for local markets.

“By modernizing contractual structures and embedding development considerations into gas investments, African producers can ensure that rising global demand translates into accelerated progress at home. Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber.

This message will take center stage at African Energy Week 2026, where policymakers, producers and financiers will convene to redefine Africa’s role in a fragmenting global energy order. With Europe looking south for security of supply, Africa has a rare opportunity in 2026: to leverage geopolitics not just for capital inflows, but for a future where energy abundance translates into broad-based prosperity at home.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Energy Capital & Power Establishes London Entity, Expanding Global Platform for Energy and Mining Events

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The move strengthens ECP’s presence in the UK and Europe, and its ability to connect African and South American markets with global investors

LONDON, United Kingdom, August 6, 2026/APO Group/ –International events company Energy Capital & Power (ECP) (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) has officially established its UK entity in London, marking a milestone in the company’s growth strategy and reinforcing its ability to deliver world-class energy and mining events and campaigns in the UK and Europe.

By establishing a presence in a key hub like London – the pre-eminent energy and mining finance center – ECP actively shapes the global energy conversation. The expansion positions ECP to better serve clients, partners and investors seeking to develop business opportunities between Africa, Europe, the Americas and energy markets worldwide.

Opening our UK company brings ECP closer to key investors in the global energy finance capital

The milestone comes as ECP strengthens its reach through a series of investment platforms that connect global capital to energy and mining projects. These include the Venezuela Energy Week London Showcase on July 30 – with over 300 delegates registered – and the annual Invest in African Energy Forum, held in Paris as the premier event connecting global investors to Africa’s energy transformation.

ECP hosts high level summits and investor conferences in leading energy and minerals producing countries in Africa and South America, including: Venezuela Energy Week; Angola Oil & Gas; MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power; African Mining Week; Libya Energy & Economic Summit; Congo Energy & Investment Forum; South Sudan Oil & Power; and Caribbean Energy Week. The company has hosted investor forums and supported licensing round roadshows in Houston, London and Paris since 2016.

“Opening our UK company brings ECP closer to key investors in the global energy finance capital,” states CEO James Chester. “Having a permanent presence in London further cements our footprint in Europe, enabling us to fulfil our mission to bring minerals and energy investment to diverse global markets.”

With teams located across Africa, Europe and the Americas, ECP has long-facilitated strategic engagement, market intelligence and industry convening, uniting investors with leading energy and mining projects.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Guyana’s Next Wave of Offshore Projects Sets the Stage for Caribbean Energy Week Launch

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The Caribbean Energy Week 2027 launch in Georgetown on September 1 will highlight the multi-billion-dollar developments driving Guyana toward 1.7 million bpd and creating new opportunities across the energy value chain

GEORGETOWN, Guyana, August 6, 2026/APO Group/ –Guyana’s rapidly expanding offshore development pipeline will take center stage when government officials, operators, investors and service providers gather in Georgetown on September 1 for the official launch of Caribbean Energy Week 2027. As the country advances a series of multi-billion-dollar developments across the Stabroek Block, the launch event will provide an early look at the projects, partnerships and investment opportunities expected to define Guyana’s next phase of growth.

 

With more than 30 discoveries made to date and multiple projects under construction or progressing through development, Guyana is targeting oil production of 1.3 million bpd by the end of 2027 and 1.7 million bpd by 2030, up from approximately 900,000-910,000 bpd today. As exploration success transitions into long-term production growth, opportunities are expanding across upstream development, offshore infrastructure, engineering, logistics and oilfield services.

Among the most significant near-term milestones is the Uaru development, ExxonMobil’s fifth sanctioned project offshore Guyana, which is expected to achieve first oil in 2026. The $12.7 billion development will produce up to 250,000 bpd from approximately 800 million barrels of recoverable resources across the Uaru, Mako and Snoek fields, utilizing up to 76 development wells and an FPSO with storage capacity of two million barrels.

Production capacity will expand further through the Whiptail development, ExxonMobil’s sixth sanctioned project in Guyana. Targeting first oil in late 2027 or early 2028, the $12.7 billion project will unlock approximately 850 million barrels across the Whiptail, Pinktail and Tilapia fields through up to 72 development wells. Designed to produce 250,000 bpd, the development will utilize the Jaguar FPSO currently under construction by SBM Offshore.

Looking beyond the current construction pipeline, Guyana is already advancing the projects expected to sustain production growth toward its 2030 target. The Hammerhead development, approved in 2025, is expected to commence production in 2029 with capacity of 150,000 bpd, while the proposed Longtail development would combine the Longtail, Tripletail and Turbot discoveries into one of the country’s largest integrated offshore developments, with planned production of 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day and 290,000 bpd of condensate.

These projects illustrate the scale of Guyana’s long-term development pipeline and the breadth of opportunities emerging across the energy value chain. Beyond offshore production, continued investment will be required across subsea systems, floating production infrastructure, drilling, marine logistics, engineering services, gas infrastructure and local content development as successive projects move toward execution.

Caribbean Energy Week 2027 will host its in-country launch at the Guyana Marriott Hotel in Georgetown on September 1, 2026, bringing together government officials, investors, operators and industry stakeholders for an early look at the opportunities, priorities and partnerships that will shape the region’s energy future. To register, please visit https://apo-opa.co/4cql5i3

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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South Sudan Oil & Power Returns as South Sudan’s Premier Investment Platform

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Returning for its seventh edition on November 24-25, South Sudan Oil & Power 2026 will bring together government, investors, operators and energy leaders to advance partnerships that unlock South Sudan’s energy potential and support nationwide economic development

JUBA, South Sudan, August 5, 2026/APO Group/ –South Sudan Oil & Power (SSOP) will return to Juba on November 24-25, 2026, reaffirming its position as the country’s official energy investment event and premier meeting place for stakeholders shaping South Sudan’s energy future. Fully endorsed by the Ministry of Petroleum, the seventh edition will convene senior government representatives, investors, international and national oil companies, financiers, service providers and development partners to advance investment across South Sudan’s energy sector.

Held under the theme “Resource Renaissance – Energy-Fueled Growth for a New Generation,” SSOP 2026 marks the return of the country’s flagship energy investment event at a pivotal moment for the industry. As South Sudan works to maximize the value of its natural resources, strengthen energy and export infrastructure and expand economic opportunities beyond the upstream sector, the conference will serve as a platform for securing the partnerships and investment needed to support long-term industrial growth, energy security and national development.

 

South Sudan’s oil sector is entering a new phase of recovery and investment, with production gains, renewed operational activity and infrastructure restoration driving momentum across the market. Operators are advancing field optimization and rehabilitation programs, with Greater Pioneer Operating Company recently recording its highest production in two decades at more than 60,000 barrels per day, while Sudd Petroleum Operating Company is pursuing production growth at Block 5A. Dar Petroleum Operating Company continues to expand activity across its producing assets. In March 2026, the company announced a discovery at the Al-Nahla field, improving production flows from Blocks 3 and 7.

 

Exploration represents another growth frontier for the country. While South Sudan holds up to 3.5 billion barrels of estimated reserves, approximately 90% of these resources remain undeveloped. The government seeks to raise these numbers by attracting investment across the entire oil value chain and facilitating greater exports.

 

With oil remaining the backbone of South Sudan’s economy, the government is prioritizing investment that sustains production growth, strengthens export resilience, develops local content and unlocks greater value across the energy value chain. SSOP 2026 will provide investors with direct access to South Sudan’s key energy stakeholders, including the Ministry of Petroleum, national oil company Nilepet and the country’s leading operators, while fostering engagement with African energy institutions and national oil companies, including South Africa’s South African National Petroleum Company, alongside the broader international investment community.

 

Building on the success of previous editions, SSOP has established itself as South Sudan’s leading platform for commercial engagement and strategic dialogue. The 2023 edition welcomed more than 600 delegates from 24 countries, including six government ministers, and resulted in five strategic agreements spanning upstream exploration, drilling capacity expansion, mining cooperation and regional energy collaboration. Bringing together stakeholders from across East Africa alongside partners from the U.S., China, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Egypt, Turkey and Norway, the conference reinforced South Sudan’s role as a regional investment destination and demonstrated its ability to translate dialogue into tangible commercial outcomes.

 

As South Sudan advances its long-term development agenda, SSOP 2026 will serve as a catalyst for new investment, strategic partnerships and regional cooperation. By bringing together government leaders, operators, investors and technology providers, the conference will help unlock the capital and expertise needed to transform South Sudan’s resource potential into lasting economic value.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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