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Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa launch the 2024 Africa Risk-Reward Index: Opportunity through transformation

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Control Risks

The report is released at a time when Africa is experiencing a significant generational shift in politics, increased continental connectivity, and the rapid emergence of transformative technologies

LONDON, United Kingdom, September 25, 2024/APO Group/ — 

Leading global specialist risk consultancy, Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com), and its economics consulting partner, Oxford Economics Africa (www.OxfordEconomics.com), today announced the launch of the ninth edition of the Africa Risk-Reward Index. This authoritative report is designed to provide policymakers, business leaders, and investors with a comprehensive guide to navigating the evolving investment landscape across key African markets.

Download document: https://apo-opa.co/3zu16yU

The report is released at a time when Africa is experiencing a significant generational shift in politics, increased continental connectivity, and the rapid emergence of transformative technologies that could potentially propel its progress. This pivotal moment presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in African markets, but also risks exacerbating fragilities in some African countries.

Africa’s outlook is promising. But understanding the nuanced market dynamics and adopting a long-term perspective will be essential for stakeholders — from policymakers and investors to development agencies and civil society — as they navigate the evolving landscape to successful investment outcomes in 2024 and beyond. For African countries and investors looking to invest or grow their business in Africa, the time is now.

In the ninth Africa Risk-Reward Index, Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa compare some of the continent’s largest and emerging markets, offering investors a comparative snapshot of market opportunities and risks across Africa in the year ahead.  

The report examines three key themes outlined below, summarising Control Risks’ and Oxford Economics Africa’s views on Africa’s trajectory in the year ahead.

Bridging the generational divide – a new era for African politics

The report’s first theme focuses on how African political leaders are increasingly mindful of their young, growing populations. Recent events have shown that young people are becoming more frustrated with governance, impatient with development, and disillusioned with political establishments. This discontent has manifested in some surprising election results, youth-led protests, and some policy shifts.

Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director at Control Risks, said, “The 2024 Africa Risk-Reward Index provides crucial insights into the dynamic changes shaping investment opportunities across the continent. As Africa faces a period of significant political and economic shifts, our report highlights both the potential rewards and the risks that investors must consider. This year’s edition emphasizes the importance of understanding the complex interplay between emerging technologies, infrastructure developments and geopolitical influences to make informed and strategic investment decisions.”

In South Africa, the ruling party lost its parliamentary majority in the May 2024 elections. In Senegal, the opposition candidate achieved a resounding victory, further illustrating the changing political dynamics in the region. In Kenya, young people organised nationwide protests that led the president to dismiss the entire cabinet.

Businesses must now operate in a less predictable security and policy environment, as governments strive to balance investment attraction with rising societal demands.

As Africa faces a period of significant political and economic shifts, our report highlights both the potential rewards and the risks that investors must consider

White elephants and lifelines – the megaprojects reshaping the continent

Over the past decade, Africa has witnessed a significant surge in infrastructure investment, with large-scale energy, port, and rail projects taking centre stage. These megaprojects are often seen as catalysts for transformative economic growth, addressing long-standing deficiencies in trade corridors and enhancing connectivity across the continent.

However, these ambitious projects are not without their challenges. Questions about these ventures’ true cost, long-term utility, and the transparency of the deals underpinning them have sparked heated debates across the continent. Many of these megaprojects have been financed through government-to-government agreements, often accompanied by concerns over opaque terms, lack of local involvement, and the potential for unsustainable debt burdens.

Geopolitical dynamics also play a significant role in shaping Africa’s infrastructure landscape. While China has historically dominated infrastructure investment on the continent, other global powers are increasingly vying for influence. The US, Gulf countries, and other geopolitical actors are stepping up their efforts to fund and develop critical infrastructure projects in Africa, driven by competition for access to natural resources and strategic positioning in the global economy.

This has resulted in a more complex and competitive environment, where African governments and businesses alike have to carefully navigate competing interests and align their infrastructure needs with their long-term goals.

Emerging technologies – supercharging economic development

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to unlock new opportunities for innovation across Africa. AI applications in agriculture, climate adaptation, healthcare, and education offer the potential to accelerate economic growth. However, African governments risk lagging their global counterparts in regulating these technologies. Countries like Morocco, Rwanda, and South Africa are taking proactive steps, but others may adopt a more cautious approach, leading to a fragmented regulatory landscape.

Jacques Nel, Head of Africa Macro at Oxford Economics Africa, added, “The 2024 Risk-Reward Index reveals a continent in flux, where significant shifts in political landscapes and economic conditions are reshaping the investment environment. This year’s report highlights the dual nature of Africa’s growth prospects – offering substantial opportunities while also presenting considerable risks. Our insights aim to equip stakeholders with the knowledge needed to make strategic decisions and utilize all the continent has to offer for sustainable growth.”

Investment Landscape Outlook

The 2024 Africa Risk-Reward Index continues to provide a grounded, long-term perspective on investment opportunities and challenges across major African economies. The report examines the shifting economic and political dynamics that are reshaping the continent’s risk-reward profile and offers actionable insights for stakeholders seeking to make informed decisions in this complex environment. African countries are at the intersection of global competition for resources, new trade corridors, and digital innovations. This index serves as a valuable tool for those looking to navigate the continent’s diverse markets and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Methodology 

The Africa Risk-Reward Index is defined by the combination of risk and reward scores that integrate economic and political risk analysis by Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa.  Risk scores from each country originate from the Economic and Political Risk Evaluator (EPRE), while the reward scores incorporate medium-term economic growth forecasts, economic size, economic structure, and demographics.  

For details on the individual risk and reward definitions, please contact us at:

communicationsEMEA@controlrisks.com or africa@oxfordeconomics.com 

To request a copy of the report please contact: tracy.walakira@apo-opa.com 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd.

Business

What Angola’s Oil Reform Story Can Teach Libya’s Next Phase of Growth

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African Energy Chamber

As Libya builds on its production recovery, “Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola” highlights how regulatory reform and policy certainty can help translate resource wealth into long-term upstream investment

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, July 3, 2026/APO Group/ –Libya’s upstream sector has staged a remarkable operational recovery, with crude production reaching approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) – its highest level in more than a decade. As the country works to sustain this momentum, strengthening the investment environment will be just as important as increasing output to attract long-term upstream capital.

 

While Angola and Libya have distinct political and institutional landscapes, both rank among Africa’s leading hydrocarbon producers with significant resource potential. In Crude Oil: Power, Turnaround and Transformation in Angola, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, examines how Angola strengthened its investment climate through a series of regulatory reforms. Although focused on Angola, the book offers valuable insights into how policy certainty can complement geological potential in attracting investment.

A defining moment in Angola’s upstream transformation came in 2019, when the country separated Sonangol’s commercial responsibilities from regulatory oversight through the establishment of the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG). The reform streamlined decision-making, improved transparency and helped reinforce investor confidence, supporting an upstream investment pipeline expected to exceed $60 billion between 2025 and 2030.

Geology alone does not attract investment

As Libya continues advancing its upstream sector, experiences from markets such as Angola illustrate how clear institutional frameworks can strengthen investor confidence and support project development over the long term. Building on recent production gains, continued efforts to enhance regulatory clarity and streamline investment processes could further reinforce Libya’s position as a leading destination for upstream capital.

Angola also introduced a permanent offer licensing mechanism, allowing companies to negotiate available acreage outside traditional bid rounds. The approach has provided greater flexibility for investors while ensuring opportunities remain available beyond periodic licensing rounds. As Libya re-engages international investors through its renewed licensing program, flexible mechanisms that encourage continuous investment could help broaden participation over time.

Beyond licensing reform, Angola introduced policies to extend production from mature offshore assets while implementing dedicated natural gas legislation that supported new discoveries, including Gajajeira-01 gas exploration well, and accelerated gas commercialization through greater regulatory clarity and clearly defined investor rights.

Libya likewise possesses substantial undeveloped oil and gas resources. As the country advances future upstream developments, predictable frameworks for brownfield redevelopment, marginal fields and gas monetization could help unlock additional investment while supporting domestic energy security and long-term production growth.

“Geology alone does not attract investment. Investors commit capital where regulation is predictable, contracts are respected and governments compete for long-term partnerships. Angola’s experience shows that reform is not about giving resources away – it is about creating the confidence that allows capital to develop them,” says Ayuk.

Libya’s production recovery demonstrates the resilience and potential of its energy sector. As the country looks toward its next phase of growth, Angola’s experience underscores how regulatory reform and policy certainty can complement resource wealth, helping translate production gains into sustained investment and long-term sector development.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Energy

Libya Energy & Economic Summit: Over $20B in Deals Highlight Renewed Global Confidence

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Etu Energias

The annual Libya Energy & Economic Summit drives multi-billion-dollar oil, gas and renewable deals, fostering international partnerships to expand Libya’s energy infrastructure and investment pipeline

TRIPOLI, Libya, July 3, 2026/APO Group/ –The Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) has established itself as Libya’s premier gateway for upstream capital, consistently unlocking multi-billion-dollar oil, gas and renewable energy agreements since its 2021 launch in Tripoli. The summit has become a central mechanism for turning policy momentum into bankable energy projects.

 

The upcoming 2027 edition of LEES will build directly on this trajectory, expanding Libya’s investment pipeline across hydrocarbons, renewables and infrastructure while deepening international participation following record deal activity in 2026.

In 2026, the fourth edition of LEES delivered its most significant upstream package to date: a $20 billion, 25-year Waha Concession amendment between Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) and TotalEnergies alongside ConocoPhillips. The agreement targets a production increase to 850,000 barrels per day through redevelopment of mature assets including North Zella and NC-98, fully financed through foreign capital under an enhanced recovery and infrastructure upgrade framework.

https://apo-opa.co/3QZPuw6

At LEES 2026, NOC Chairman Masoud Suleman signed a MoU with Chevron to evaluate oil and gas exploration opportunities, field development and enhanced recovery initiatives, later expanding cooperation to assess unconventional resources across the Sirte, Murzuq and Ghadames basins. Suleman also oversaw a letter of intent between NOC subsidiary NAGECO and TGS to expand multi-client seismic acquisition programs and generate high-resolution subsurface data supporting future licensing rounds and exploratory drilling.

At the government level, Minister of Oil and Gas Dr. Khalifa Abdulsadek formalized a Libya-Egypt petroleum cooperation MoU aimed at strengthening technical collaboration, infrastructure development and capacity building across the oil, gas and mining sectors. During the summit, the Libyan Council for Oil, gas and Renewable Energy signed a strategic partnership with Business France focused on expanding private-sector participation and supporting Libyan SMEs.

https://apo-opa.co/4eUoPZP

LEES has become the decisive platform for converting Libya’s energy potential into structured, bankable investment opportunities across hydrocarbons and renewables

The 2024 edition of LEES acted as a platform for advancing projects already under development, most notably showcasing progress on TotalEnergies’ 500 MW Sadada solar PV project with the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL), first announced during the inaugural 2021 summit. The project remains a cornerstone of Libya’s renewable energy strategy, supporting grid stabilization and diversification away from oil-dependent power generation in partnership with the Renewable Energy Authority of Libya.

https://apo-opa.co/4vbja7A

Beyond solar, 2024 also formalized Libya’s international upstream reopening through the launch of a national licensing round, drawing qualified interest from majors including Eni, Repsol and BGN Energy. Additional outcomes included exploratory discussions on a Malta-Libya undersea renewable energy interconnector, designed to evaluate cross-Mediterranean power exchange potential and long-term grid export opportunities, reinforcing Libya’s positioning as both a hydrocarbons exporter and emerging regional energy hub.

https://apo-opa.co/445y1Wh

https://apo-opa.co/4f1ytKb

The inaugural LEES 2021 marked Libya’s reintegration into global energy investment flows after a prolonged hiatus, featuring the announcement of TotalEnergies’ 500 MW solar partnership with GECOL and parallel gas-flaring reduction initiatives across western oilfields. Infrastructure-focused agreements, including upgrades linked to the Misrata Free Zone, further supported logistics and export capacity expansion. Initial discussions involving ConocoPhillips, Hess Corporation and other international operators laid the groundwork for subsequent upstream rehabilitation efforts and the wave of large-scale investments that would follow in later editions of the summit.

https://apo-opa.co/4wo8gMX

“LEES has become the decisive platform for converting Libya’s energy potential into structured, bankable investment opportunities across hydrocarbons and renewables,” says James Chester, CEO, Energy Capital & Power. “The 2027 edition will build on this momentum, further accelerating international capital inflows and long-term sector partnerships.”

Join industry leaders at the Libya Energy & Economic Summit 2027 in Tripoli and explore investment opportunities in one of Africa’s most dynamic energy markets. LEES 2027 offers a premier platform for partnerships, innovation and sector growth. Visit www.LibyaSummit.com to secure your participation. To sponsor or participate as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Energy

Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo’s (SNPC) Maixent Raoul Ominga to Receive Lifetime Achievement Award at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026

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The award recognizes decades of leadership by the SNPC Director General in shaping the company’s growth and investment strategy, while strengthening the Republic of Congo’s position in Africa’s energy landscape

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, July 2, 2026/APO Group/ –Maixent Raoul Ominga, Director General of Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC), has been named the recipient of the Lifetime Achievement Award at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026. The honor recognizes more than two decades of service to Congo’s national oil company and a leadership career that has helped transform SNPC into a stronger, more diversified and increasingly influential energy company.

The Lifetime Achievement Award is the highest distinction presented during the African Energy Awards, held annually as part of AEW. The non-voting category recognizes individuals whose careers have left a lasting mark on Africa’s energy industry through sustained leadership, institutional development, investment promotion and contributions to regional cooperation.

Few leaders know SNPC as intimately as Ominga. Joining the company in 2001 in the finance and accounting department, he steadily rose through the ranks before being appointed Director General in 2018. Reappointed in 2022 and again in 2025 following the adoption of SNPC’s revised corporate statutes, his continued tenure reflects sustained confidence in a leadership style centered on long-term institutional growth, operational discipline and continuity.

Maixent Raoul Ominga represents the kind of steady, visionary leadership that has helped transform SNPC into a more resilient and forward-looking national oil company

Under Ominga’s leadership, SNPC has evolved from a traditional national oil company into a broader energy player with an expanding upstream portfolio and growing regional profile. The company continues to hold interests in many of the Republic of Congo’s largest producing assets while participating in new discoveries that have reinforced the country’s long-term exploration potential.

A defining feature of Ominga’s tenure has been a strategic shift toward long-term value creation through gas monetization. Under his direction, SNPC has played a central role in supporting the Congo LNG project, helping position the Republic of Congo among Africa’s emerging LNG exporters and accelerating the country’s transition toward large-scale gas development.

Institutional transformation has been equally central to his leadership. Ominga has overseen organizational restructuring, strengthened corporate governance and placed greater emphasis on operational performance, while steering SNPC toward increased use of domestic capital markets to reduce reliance on international lenders and strengthen local financial capacity. He has also prioritized workforce development, greater gender inclusion in leadership and the development of internal capabilities supporting gas and new energy initiatives.

His influence has extended well beyond SNPC. A longstanding advocate for stronger collaboration among Africa’s national oil companies, Ominga has consistently promoted regional partnerships, African financing solutions and energy sovereignty as essential to unlocking the continent’s long-term investment potential. This vision has helped elevate both SNPC’s regional profile and the Republic of Congo’s role in Africa’s evolving energy landscape.

Ominga’s leadership has also been recognized beyond the energy sector. In 2026, he was awarded the Gold Medal of the Ligue universelle du bien public, recognizing his leadership, commitment to the public good and contributions to economic and social development. The distinction reflects a leadership philosophy that extends beyond commercial performance, emphasizing institution-building, human capital development and the role of energy in supporting national progress.

“Maixent Raoul Ominga represents the kind of steady, visionary leadership that has helped transform SNPC into a more resilient and forward-looking national oil company,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “His commitment to building local capacity, strengthening governance and positioning Congo’s energy sector for the future makes him a deserving recipient of this year’s Lifetime Achievement Award. We congratulate him on this well-earned recognition.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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