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Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa launch the 2024 Africa Risk-Reward Index: Opportunity through transformation

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Control Risks

The report is released at a time when Africa is experiencing a significant generational shift in politics, increased continental connectivity, and the rapid emergence of transformative technologies

LONDON, United Kingdom, September 25, 2024/APO Group/ — 

Leading global specialist risk consultancy, Control Risks (www.ControlRisks.com), and its economics consulting partner, Oxford Economics Africa (www.OxfordEconomics.com), today announced the launch of the ninth edition of the Africa Risk-Reward Index. This authoritative report is designed to provide policymakers, business leaders, and investors with a comprehensive guide to navigating the evolving investment landscape across key African markets.

Download document: https://apo-opa.co/3zu16yU

The report is released at a time when Africa is experiencing a significant generational shift in politics, increased continental connectivity, and the rapid emergence of transformative technologies that could potentially propel its progress. This pivotal moment presents both opportunities and challenges for businesses operating in African markets, but also risks exacerbating fragilities in some African countries.

Africa’s outlook is promising. But understanding the nuanced market dynamics and adopting a long-term perspective will be essential for stakeholders — from policymakers and investors to development agencies and civil society — as they navigate the evolving landscape to successful investment outcomes in 2024 and beyond. For African countries and investors looking to invest or grow their business in Africa, the time is now.

In the ninth Africa Risk-Reward Index, Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa compare some of the continent’s largest and emerging markets, offering investors a comparative snapshot of market opportunities and risks across Africa in the year ahead.  

The report examines three key themes outlined below, summarising Control Risks’ and Oxford Economics Africa’s views on Africa’s trajectory in the year ahead.

Bridging the generational divide – a new era for African politics

The report’s first theme focuses on how African political leaders are increasingly mindful of their young, growing populations. Recent events have shown that young people are becoming more frustrated with governance, impatient with development, and disillusioned with political establishments. This discontent has manifested in some surprising election results, youth-led protests, and some policy shifts.

Patricia Rodrigues, Associate Director at Control Risks, said, “The 2024 Africa Risk-Reward Index provides crucial insights into the dynamic changes shaping investment opportunities across the continent. As Africa faces a period of significant political and economic shifts, our report highlights both the potential rewards and the risks that investors must consider. This year’s edition emphasizes the importance of understanding the complex interplay between emerging technologies, infrastructure developments and geopolitical influences to make informed and strategic investment decisions.”

In South Africa, the ruling party lost its parliamentary majority in the May 2024 elections. In Senegal, the opposition candidate achieved a resounding victory, further illustrating the changing political dynamics in the region. In Kenya, young people organised nationwide protests that led the president to dismiss the entire cabinet.

Businesses must now operate in a less predictable security and policy environment, as governments strive to balance investment attraction with rising societal demands.

As Africa faces a period of significant political and economic shifts, our report highlights both the potential rewards and the risks that investors must consider

White elephants and lifelines – the megaprojects reshaping the continent

Over the past decade, Africa has witnessed a significant surge in infrastructure investment, with large-scale energy, port, and rail projects taking centre stage. These megaprojects are often seen as catalysts for transformative economic growth, addressing long-standing deficiencies in trade corridors and enhancing connectivity across the continent.

However, these ambitious projects are not without their challenges. Questions about these ventures’ true cost, long-term utility, and the transparency of the deals underpinning them have sparked heated debates across the continent. Many of these megaprojects have been financed through government-to-government agreements, often accompanied by concerns over opaque terms, lack of local involvement, and the potential for unsustainable debt burdens.

Geopolitical dynamics also play a significant role in shaping Africa’s infrastructure landscape. While China has historically dominated infrastructure investment on the continent, other global powers are increasingly vying for influence. The US, Gulf countries, and other geopolitical actors are stepping up their efforts to fund and develop critical infrastructure projects in Africa, driven by competition for access to natural resources and strategic positioning in the global economy.

This has resulted in a more complex and competitive environment, where African governments and businesses alike have to carefully navigate competing interests and align their infrastructure needs with their long-term goals.

Emerging technologies – supercharging economic development

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to unlock new opportunities for innovation across Africa. AI applications in agriculture, climate adaptation, healthcare, and education offer the potential to accelerate economic growth. However, African governments risk lagging their global counterparts in regulating these technologies. Countries like Morocco, Rwanda, and South Africa are taking proactive steps, but others may adopt a more cautious approach, leading to a fragmented regulatory landscape.

Jacques Nel, Head of Africa Macro at Oxford Economics Africa, added, “The 2024 Risk-Reward Index reveals a continent in flux, where significant shifts in political landscapes and economic conditions are reshaping the investment environment. This year’s report highlights the dual nature of Africa’s growth prospects – offering substantial opportunities while also presenting considerable risks. Our insights aim to equip stakeholders with the knowledge needed to make strategic decisions and utilize all the continent has to offer for sustainable growth.”

Investment Landscape Outlook

The 2024 Africa Risk-Reward Index continues to provide a grounded, long-term perspective on investment opportunities and challenges across major African economies. The report examines the shifting economic and political dynamics that are reshaping the continent’s risk-reward profile and offers actionable insights for stakeholders seeking to make informed decisions in this complex environment. African countries are at the intersection of global competition for resources, new trade corridors, and digital innovations. This index serves as a valuable tool for those looking to navigate the continent’s diverse markets and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Methodology 

The Africa Risk-Reward Index is defined by the combination of risk and reward scores that integrate economic and political risk analysis by Control Risks and Oxford Economics Africa.  Risk scores from each country originate from the Economic and Political Risk Evaluator (EPRE), while the reward scores incorporate medium-term economic growth forecasts, economic size, economic structure, and demographics.  

For details on the individual risk and reward definitions, please contact us at:

communicationsEMEA@controlrisks.com or africa@oxfordeconomics.com 

To request a copy of the report please contact: tracy.walakira@apo-opa.com 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Control Risks Group Holdings Ltd.

Business

Africa50’s Nabil Saimi Joins MSGBC 2026 as Senegal’s Project Pipeline Draws Infrastructure Capital

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Etu Energias

Africa50 invests in projects at their earliest stage, with power and midstream gas among its priority sectors

DAKAR, Senegal, October 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Nabil Saimi, Senior Investment Director for the Project Development Fund at Africa50, will speak at MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 in December. His confirmation brings one of the continent’s leading infrastructure investors to the Dakar conference, with a focus on the earliest and most decisive phase of the project cycle: when concepts become bankable assets. Africa50’s model is built around carrying projects from development through to financing, an approach well matched to the basin’s expanding pipeline of gas, power and infrastructure projects.

 




 
 

Africa50 was set up by the African Development Bank (AfDB) alongside African governments and now has 33 shareholder states, with Senegal, Mauritania and The Gambia among them. The platform has mobilized close to $9 billion in investment across the continent, according to Senegal’s Presidency. Its Project Development business invests equity at the preparation stage to ready projects for financiers, generally targeting developments worth more than $100 million, with power, transport, midstream gas and information and communications technology as priority sectors.

Senegal has been central to Africa50’s power portfolio. At its 2017 shareholders meeting in Dakar, Africa50 partnered with national utility Senelec under a joint agreement to develop the 120 MW Malicounda combined cycle power plant and select its strategic sponsor. The €154 million plant entered commercial operation in August 2022, adding 8% to Senegal’s generation capacity, and was built with the ability to run on the country’s own gas once supply is available. In April 2026, an Africa50 delegation met President Bassirou Diomaye Faye in Dakar and reaffirmed its support for Senegal’s development priorities.

Project development is gathering momentum across the organization. In September 2026, Africa50 appointed former International Finance Corporation (IFC) regional director Cheick-Oumar Sylla as CEO of its Project Development Fund, a key appointment under its 2030 roadmap. Separately, the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa Project Development Fund (AGIA-PD), managed by Africa50, secured $50 million from Italy’s Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and France’s Proparco in 2026, adding to the $118 million raised at its first close in August 2025 as the fund targets $400 million.

Africa50’s reach now extends deeper into gas and grid infrastructure across the continent. In 2026, the platform unveiled partnerships in Tanzania covering LNG and electricity transmission, while a $20 million commitment from British International Investment took its Infrastructure Acceleration Fund to roughly $330 million in total commitments. Both areas carry weight in the MSGBC basin, where LNG exports and gas-to-power plans are shaping the region’s next phase of development.

Plants such as Malicounda were built with domestic gas in mind, and the basin’s next generation of power and gas infrastructure will depend on capital committed early in development. Saimi’s participation strengthens MSGBC 2026’s focus on connecting the region’s project pipeline with the investors able to advance it.

Organized by Energy Capital & Power (ECP) and held under the High Patronage of Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 takes place December 1-3 in Dakar and will convene heads of state, ministers, investors, operators and development partners from Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau and Guinea-Conakry. Explore opportunities and secure your participation at www.MSGBCOilGasAndPower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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Algeria Energy Minister Brings Regional Power Expertise to MSGBC 2026

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Etu Energias

Minister Mourad Adjal joins Algeria’s Hydrocarbon Minister Mohamed Arkab at the Dakar conference, bringing new perspectives on power and renewable energy development

DAKAR, Senegal, October 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Algeria’s Minister of Energy and Renewable Energies Mourad Adjal will participate as a speaker at MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026, bringing senior government expertise on gas, power infrastructure, renewable energy and regional energy integration to the event’s investment and policy discussions. Minister Adjal joins Algeria’s Hydrocarbons Minister Mohamed Arkab at the event, taking place December 1–3 in Dakar.

 




 
 

His participation comes as Algeria advances major renewable energy and hydrogen programs while strengthening its position as a regional energy partner. The country is implementing a 15,000 MW renewable energy program through 2035, with a first phase comprising 3,200 MW of solar capacity currently underway. The program offers relevant experience for MSGBC countries seeking to expand generation capacity while integrating larger shares of renewable power into their energy systems.

Hydrogen is also becoming a major component of Algeria’s energy strategy. The country is participating in the SoutH2 Corridor, which aims to establish infrastructure linking North African hydrogen production with European markets, while the Algeria-Europe Alliance for Hydrogen is progressing toward the publication of its feasibility study results in 2027.

These developments have direct relevance to the MSGBC region, where Mauritania and Senegal are positioning themselves for large-scale green hydrogen development alongside expanding oil and gas production. The combination of new generation capacity, transmission infrastructure and export-oriented energy projects is creating growing demand for integrated regional energy systems.

Minister Adjal also brings extensive experience from Algeria’s electricity and gas sector at a time when MSGBC countries are developing gas-to-power infrastructure and cross-border energy connections. Senegal is advancing domestic gas utilisation and new power capacity, while Mauritania is combining LNG development with emerging hydrogen projects and wider plans for energy-intensive industrial development.

Before becoming minister in September 2025, Adjal served as Chairman and CEO of Sonelgaz, Algeria’s state-owned electricity and gas utility, from December 2021. He previously led the Electricity and Gas Distribution Company and held senior regional roles including President of the Mediterranean Transmission System Operators Association and Chairman of the Maghreb Electricity Committee.

His participation adds senior North African perspective to an MSGBC market increasingly focused on converting resource discoveries into producing assets, reliable power and integrated infrastructure. As Senegal, Mauritania and neighbouring markets develop gas, electricity and renewable projects, Adjal’s experience across utility-scale energy systems will contribute to discussions on building the infrastructure required for the region’s next phase of growth.

MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power will convene international operators, service companies and investors in Dakar to explore opportunities across the region’s energy sector. To secure a delegate pass or learn more, visit www.MSGBCOilGasandPower.com or email sales@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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Energy

Dangote Refinery Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Joins South Sudan Oil & Power (SSOP) 2026 as $1.8B Kenya Expansion Opens Regional Distribution Opportunities

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Etu Energias

David Bird’s participation comes as Dangote advances its East African refining and distribution strategy, anchored by a 700,000-bpd Lamu Refinery and 25% stake in KPC

JUBA, South Sudan, October 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals is expanding its footprint across East Africa, with a $16 billion refinery planned in Kenya and a $335 million investment in Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC). As these developments open new opportunities for regional petroleum trade, the company’s CEO and Managing Director David Bird has joined the South Sudan Oil & Power (SSOP) 2026 conference as a speaker.

 




 
 

Taking place in Juba on November 24-25, SSOP returns for its seventh edition as the nation’s premier platform for investment, dealmaking and policy. Bird’s participation comes as South Sudan looks to translate its resource potential into renewed exploration, higher production and greater participation in regional petroleum value chains. With major downstream investment reshaping East Africa’s energy market, SSOP 2026 offers an opportunity for producers, refiners and investors to establish the partnerships needed to advance regional energy trade and unlock new commercial opportunities.

The event arrives at a strategic time for Dangote. On September 30, the company officially broke ground on a 700,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) refinery in Lamu, Kenya. Set to come online in 2029, the facility is designed to supply gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to East African markets, with regional governments offered a combined 30% stake in the project. The project aims to replicate Dangote’s 650,000-bpd Nigerian facility, which is currently operating at full capacity and is set to expand to 1.2 million bpd. A delegation from South Sudan attended the Lamu groundbreaking ceremony, underscoring the country’s commitment to strengthening regional petroleum ties.

https://apo-opa.co/4zQaHcU

Beyond the Lamu facility, Dangote is strengthening its footprint across East Africa’s distribution networks. Just this month, the company acquired a 25% stake in KPC, securing access to established infrastructure transporting petroleum products from Kenya’s coast to regional markets, including Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Following the $335 million transaction, Dangote plans to invest an additional $1.5 billion to expand KPC’s approximately 1,300-km pipeline network, bringing its total planned investment to $1.8 billion.

https://apo-opa.co/4zS8fCN

For South Sudan, East Africa’s only established commercial crude oil producer, Dangote’s expansion introduces new opportunities for regional petroleum integration. The country holds approximately 3.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and is seeking to increase production through new exploration, redevelopment of mature fields and investment in supporting infrastructure. While no crude supply agreement between South Sudan and Dangote has been announced, the development of additional regional refining capacity could create opportunities for future feedstock supply arrangements, subject to commercial viability, infrastructure and crude compatibility.

Bird brings extensive experience across refining, petrochemicals and integrated energy infrastructure to SSOP 2026. Before joining Dangote in 2025, he served as CEO of OQ8, the $9.5 billion Duqm refinery joint venture in Oman, overseeing the development and commissioning of major refining, pipeline and terminal infrastructure. He also held senior leadership positions at Shell, spanning upstream production, downstream operations and global energy supply chains. His participation at SSOP 2026 will bring expertise in large-scale refining investment, project delivery and regional petroleum market development to discussions on South Sudan’s next phase of growth.

https://apo-opa.co/3WotMnT

As the country’s official energy event, held in partnership with the Ministry of Petroleum, SSOP 2026 provides a platform for advancing discussions around regional trade, refining and infrastructure investment. The conference brings together international and national oil companies, refiners, trading companies, infrastructure developers, financiers and technology providers to negotiate partnerships, mobilize investment and connect South Sudan’s petroleum resources with regional and international markets.

Register for SSOP 2026: https://apo-opa.co/3WGMyXJ

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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