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Geopolitics and Energy Security: What Recent Moves Say about Africa’s Global Gas Role

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African Energy Chamber

With the European Union formalizing a ban on Russian LNG and gas imports from 2026 and 2027 respectively, Africa is uniquely positioned to leverage geopolitics to advance its energy development

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 9, 2026/APO Group/ –The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in early December 2025 to formally phase out Russian gas imports. Aligned with a broader strategy to diversify imports and strengthen security of supply, the agreement stipulates a full prohibition on both LNG and pipeline gas from 2026 and 2027 respectively. For African gas producers, this decision marks a strategic turning point: an opportunity to leverage geopolitics to attract long-term investment while prioritizing domestic energy needs.

European Diversification Creates Strategic Openings

The EU’s decision to introduce a legally binding prohibition on Russian gas imports forms a core pillar of the bloc’s REPowerEU roadmap – launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aimed at safeguarding energy supply. Under the provisional agreement, short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027. Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November 2027, contingent on storage targets being met. Amendments to existing contracts will be tightly restricted and cannot increase volumes.

The regulation also obliges EU member states to submit national diversification plans outlining how they intend to replace Russian supplies, while strengthening European Commission oversight. A parallel legislative proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected by the end of 2027. While Russian oil now accounts for less than 3% of EU imports, gas still represents around 13% – worth more than €15 billion annually – leaving Europe exposed to supply and security risks.

For African producers, this policy shift sends a clear signal: Europe is actively seeking new, reliable suppliers with the capacity to deliver long-term volumes under transparent, rules-based frameworks. The question is no longer whether demand exists, but how Africa positions itself to meet that demand on its own terms.

Africa: The Preferred Supplier

Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world

With its geographic advantage and strong resource base, Africa is well placed to respond. North Africa is the clear market of choice, with established export infrastructure already in place. Algeria, Egypt and Libya account for two-thirds of the continent’s output, and while production is set to expand into the 2030s, North Africa’s share is projected to fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge.

For Europe, this holds a strategic advantage. West and East African LNG producers sit astride both Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, enabling them to function as swing suppliers. This optionality allows producers to respond to price signals in Europe and Asia, arbitrage spot-market fluctuations and provide resilience during global supply disruptions – precisely the flexibility European buyers now value.

The resource base is equally compelling. Africa holds an estimated 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin off Tanzania and Mozambique alone contains 129 tcf, while Nigeria’s Niger Delta holds 113 tcf. While much of this potential remains underdeveloped, momentum is building. The year 2025 saw the start-up of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal, Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG. These projects send a clear message: Africa is capable and ready to supply global markets.

Balancing Global Demand with African Priorities

As European demand continues to grow, Africa faces a strategic balancing act: how to become a preferred global supplier while ensuring investment serves the continent’s development needs. With more than 600 million people still without access to electricity and 900 million lacking clean cooking solutions, it is increasingly important to move beyond historical contractual models rooted primarily in extraction. By 2050, African gas demand is projected to rise by 60%, reaffirming the need to design contracts that support long-term economic growth rather than short-term export gains.

One mechanism already gaining traction is the integration of domestic market obligations into LNG projects. The GTA project offers a clear example. Developed as a cross-border LNG hub for Mauritania and Senegal, the project earmarks 35 million standard cubic feet per day of its output for domestic use in each country, supporting power generation and industrial development alongside exports to global markets. Rather than viewing exports and domestic consumption as competing priorities, this framework links them directly: as production and exports grow, so too does gas availability for local markets.

“By modernizing contractual structures and embedding development considerations into gas investments, African producers can ensure that rising global demand translates into accelerated progress at home. Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber.

This message will take center stage at African Energy Week 2026, where policymakers, producers and financiers will convene to redefine Africa’s role in a fragmenting global energy order. With Europe looking south for security of supply, Africa has a rare opportunity in 2026: to leverage geopolitics not just for capital inflows, but for a future where energy abundance translates into broad-based prosperity at home.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Energy

Rand Refinery Joins African Mining Week (AMW) as Silver Sponsor Amid Regional Market Expansion Strategy

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Energy Capital

African Mining Week 2026 will showcase lucrative investment, partnership, and knowledge-exchange opportunities across Africa’s gold downstream sector, as Rand Refinery intensifies its investment and expansion strategy across the continent

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, May 19, 2026/APO Group/ –Amid a strategy to expand from a South Africa-focused refiner into a pan-African downstream leader, Rand Refinery has joined African Mining Week (AMW), an Influential African Mining Conference, scheduled for October 14-16, 2026 in Cape Town, as a silver sponsor.

Rand Refinery’s participation reflects a broader strategic alignment between the company’s expansion agenda and AMW’s focus on supporting and enabling local beneficiation and promoting artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) responsible sourcing frameworks.

 

In terms of volumes, the latest market information indicates that Africa produces 1000tpa of mined gold (more than any other continent), with large-scale mining (LSM) and ASM being almost evenly balanced (500tpa production each). On its current trajectory, African ASM volumes are expected to eclipse those of LSM.

 

The focus on ASM as a transformational imperative is valid, and Rand Refinery is an active participant in the precious metals supply chain, working alongside other upstream and downstream actors to ensure that the communities and countries with gold resources benefit in a sustainable manner.

 

Under the theme Mining the Future: Unearthing Africa’s Full Mineral Value Chain, AMW 2026 offers a critical interface between refiners, miners, regulators, and financial institutions, as African countries intensify efforts to capture more value from responsible mineral production.

 

A key pillar of Rand Refinery’s 2026 strategy is its expansion into high-growth gold markets beyond South Africa. In January 2026, the company partnered with Ghana’s Gold Coast Refinery (GCR) to support the Ghana Gold Board to locally refine artisanal and small-scale (ASM) gold and elevate responsible sourcing standards in West Africa. The partnership also positions Rand Refinery in a rapidly growing and historically fragmented supply segment: ASM operations, enabling the company to enhance traceability and strengthen compliance with global standards for ethical sourcing and anti-money laundering.

 

The partnership potentially allows the monetization of ASM supply streams in the formal gold ecosystem, complementing Rand Refinery’s established role in refining output from responsible large-scale producers. AMW 2026 represents a timely platform for the company to provide an update on its projects and contribution to Africa’s gold sector.

 

As demand for regional refining capacity expands, along with central bank buying programs, companies such as Rand Refinery will be crucial.

 

Central bank gold purchases are projected to average around 585 tons per quarter in 2026, underscoring sustained global demand. In Africa, gold now accounts for approximately 17% of total reserves – up from less than 10% in 2022–2023 – while physical holdings increased from 663 tons in 2022 to an estimated 738 tons in 2025.

 

This upward trajectory is driving demand for trusted refining and value addition services, positioning Rand Refinery as a key partner in the region. Against this backdrop, AMW provides a strategic platform for central banks and gold buyers to engage directly with one of the world’s largest integrated single-site precious metals refining and smelting complexes and strengthen regional beneficiation and national reserve strategies.

 

At AMW, Rand Refinery executives will participate in panel discussions and networking sessions, engaging stakeholders on partnership opportunities that support a more integrated, transparent and value-driven African gold ecosystem.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Energy

Mining Services Companies Drive Africa’s Next Phase of Industrial Mining Growth

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Energy Capital

African Mining Week will highlight how mining services companies are becoming central to transforming Africa’s vast mineral endowment into investment-ready projects

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, May 19, 2026/APO Group/ –African Mining Week (AMW) – taking place on October 14 to 16 in Cape Town – will highight the growing role of mining services companies as critical enablers of Africa’s transition from resource – rich to project – ready. As the continent works to unlock an estimated $8.5 trillion in untapped mineral wealth, these firms are emerging as key drivers of capital mobilization, technical delivery and accelerated project timelines.

 

A structural shift is underway. Mining services companies are no longer confined to contractor roles – they are evolving into integrated project partners, shaping how mines are financed, engineered, built and operated. Their influence now sits at the intersection of capital markets, infrastructure development, energy systems and industrial policy, positioning them as central players in Africa’s next phase of mining – led growth.

This evolution is already visible in project activity across the continent. In April 2026, Metso inaugurated a new regional hub in Cape Town, strengthening its bulk material handling and services capabilities across Africa. The facility enhances automation, logistics and lifecycle services across key commodity value chains – including coal, platinum group metals and manganese – directly supporting South Africa’s strategy to scale mineral exports and industrial output.

Geopolitics is further amplifying this trend. Major global economies are increasingly leveraging their EPC and mining services companies as strategic tools to secure supply chains and expand influence. Institutions such as the Export-Import Bank of the United States are backing American participation in African mining, while China, Europe, Canada and Australia continue to embed their services companies into financing and development frameworks across the continent.

Australia’s Lycopodium is advancing Namibia’s Twin Hills project, while China’s JCHX Mining Management is supporting copper production at Botswana’s Khoemacau Mine. In Guinea, XCMG Machinery is contributing to development at the Simandou iron ore project – one of the largest untapped deposits globally.

Across key mining jurisdictions, this shift is accelerating project pipelines. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Ghana, Liberia and South Africa are increasingly relying on mining services firms to fast-track national geomapping exercises, exploration, scale production and advance beneficiation.

Against this backdrop, AMW will bring together global EPC firms, mining services providers, investors and African developers. The event is set to catalyze partnerships and deal-making, with a focus on strengthening execution capacity, unlocking financing and accelerating the delivery of mining projects that can anchor Africa’s industrial growth and global supply chain integration.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Offtake Agreements Reshape Africa’s Next Phase of Mining Investment

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Energy Capital

African Mining Week will highlight how offtake agreements are bridging Africa’s mineral wealth with global capital, turning geological potential into bankable mining projects

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, May 18, 2026/APO Group/ –Multinational commodities company Trafigura signed an offtake agreement in April 2026 with Ghana’s Heath Goldfields for the Bogoso-Prestea Gold Mine, committing to purchase around 700,000 ounces of gold. The deal provides immediate commercial certainty for the project while improving its financing profile by guaranteeing a long-term buyer, addressing one of the sector’s most persistent constraints: access to capital.

The move reflects a broader trend across Africa’s mineral sector whereby projects are turning to offtake agreements to secure capital and advance production. As Africa accelerates the development of its estimated $8.5 trillion in untapped mineral wealth, offtake agreements are emerging as an effective tool to unlock financing and de-risk projects.

This dual function – market assurance and capital enablement – is increasingly central to Africa’s mining financing landscape. By reducing demand risk, offtake agreements help unlock debt and equity financing that would otherwise be difficult to secure in early-stage or restart projects.

Similar structures are being replicated across the continent. In Sierra Leone, an offtake-backed arrangement involving Trafigura and FG Gold Limited helped unlock financing for the Baomahun Gold Project, marking a critical step in de-risking one of the country’s flagship mining developments and enabling financial close for large-scale gold production.

In the battery minerals space, NextSource Materials extended its offtake agreement in March 2026 with Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation to supply graphite from the Molo project in Madagascar. The arrangement provides predictable long-term demand for 9,000 tons per annum of graphite, while simultaneously supporting project financing and expansion plans tied to global battery supply chains.

Similarly, Bannerman Energy has secured offtake agreements with North American utilities for uranium from its Etango project, providing multi-year revenue visibility from 2029 to 2033 and strengthening the project’s long-term investment case.

These transactions reflect a broader structural shift in African mining finance: offtake agreements are no longer just sales contracts, but core instruments of project development, risk allocation and capital mobilization. For other markets seeking finance and long-term buyers, these examples demonstrate the viability of offtake contracts – not only for project commissioning phases but as tools for early-stage development.

Notably, in South Africa, where the government is targeting R2 trillion in investment to unlock its critical minerals potential, offtake structures could play a central role in de-risking projects. Similarly, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds an estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral wealth, offtake agreements could accelerate the monetization of its vast copper, cobalt and strategic mineral reserves.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming African Mining Week (AMW) Conference and Exhibition – taking place from October 14–16 in Cape Town – will showcase how offtake-driven financing models can be scaled to accelerate project delivery and strengthen Africa’s position in global minerals supply chain. Uniting stakeholders from across the entire African mineral value chain, the event offers a platform to examine strategic financing, mechanisms to accelerate production and positioning the continent at the forefront of global mining investment.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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