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Global ad market prospects downgraded by $20bn in the face of widespread disruption from trade tariffs

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1 year ago

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WARC

Growth forecasts for advertising spend have been downgraded this year (-0.9pp to +6.7%) and next (-0.7pp to +6.3%), equivalent to a $19.8bn cut.

The risk of prolonged stagflation – and outright recession – has grown in key economies, exacerbated by new trade tariffs set to bite from H2 2025. Automakers, retailers and tech brands are most exposed.

Regulation is another headwind, with the EU tightening its stance on both Google and Apple. Outstanding US antitrust rulings against Google and TikTok also add to a climate of uncertainty for media strategists.

The global ad market is expected to be worth $1.15trn this year, an absolute rise of $72.9bn (+6.7%) from a strong 2024. Alternative modelling based on a pessimistic OECD scenario further cuts ad market growth, to +6.4% this year.

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2025/26 – Q1 2025 update

27 March 2025 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.7% this year to $1.15trn, a downgrade of almost one percentage point (pp) from WARC’s November forecast due to growing market volatility. A further cut of 0.7pp has been applied to 2026, downrating growth to 6.3%.

The underlying factors for these downward revisions are wide ranging, but core among them is the rising risk of stagflation – or outright recession – across major economies, compounded by heightened costs being levied on trade by the US. Tightening regulation in the European Union, squeezed margins and low business and consumer confidence are also contributing factors.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the report, says: “The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation, and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors – leading us to cut growth prospects by $20bn over the next two years. Automakers, retailers, and tech brands in particular are now reigning in ad spend amid rising manufacturing costs and mounting supply chain pressures.

“Despite the growing volatility, digital advertising remains strong, led by three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – on course to control over half of the market in 2029. Regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US further compound risks to growth, however, advertisers must be nimble in order to seize initiative in this shifting landscape.”

Three scenarios for an uncertain future

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points. These include macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.

This capability has allowed WARC to model three scenarios for this report based on differing severities of deterioration in underlying market conditions. These are as follows:

WARC’s baseline forecast, drawing from current indicators
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) scenario, which assumes 10% universal trade tariffs and cuts 0.5pp from GDP in key economies over three years, as well as adding 0.4 points to inflation
A more severe case, which removes a full point from global growth aside 0.4 points to inflation over the next three year

Applying the OECD scenario to the advertising market cuts a further 0.3pp and $4bn from global growth compared to WARC’s baseline of 6.3% growth and total of $1.15trn. The Trump administration still intends to introduce new reciprocal tariffs with all trading partners on April 2nd, aside a blanket 20% hike already imposed on China and similar punitive measures pending for Canada and Mexico. This plays into a more severe scenario which, when modelled, equates to a 0.8pp downgrade in advertising growth compared to our baseline, at an extra cost of $9.5bn.

WARC believes the impacts of trade fragmentation will begin to be felt in the advertising market from the second half of this year, before becoming more pronounced during the first half of 2026.

Automotive, retail and tech sectors set to bear brunt of tariff impacts

Automotive ad spend down 7.4% this year as manufacturing stalls and key players pare back on brand building
Retailers set to lower ad spend by 5.3% as margins tighten; US retailers are vulnerable to disruption among Chinese suppliers
Ad growth set to halve among tech & electronic brands as barriers to trade impair access to components

The automotive industry contributes significantly to the revenues of leading ad agencies, spending $54.8bn last year of which more than one in five (22.5%) dollars went to premium video formats – predominantly spots. Budgets are shifting away from linear TV and towards digital platforms, however, with more than half (51.1%) of automotive spend worldwide now going to search and social media.

Major US automakers, including General Motors and Ford, have reduced their advertising budgets in recent years despite revenue growth. GM reinvests 1.8% of its sales revenue into marketing activity, down from 3.5% in 2013, while for Ford the share is just 1.2%.

Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (EAMA), published this month, shows impending tariffs on Mexican, Canadian and Chinese production pose a risk to two fifths (40.7%) of the automotive industry. WARC expects a decline in ad spend among automotive brands to be close to 7.4% this year, with video formats more likely to incur larger losses.

Retail is the largest sector WARC monitors, with projected ad spend of $162.7bn this year equivalent to 14.1% of the global ad market. This total represents a fall of 5.3% from 2024 levels of spend, however, mostly reflective of the looming impacts of tariffs on supply chains. Both the OECD scenario (-5.7%) and severe case (-6.1%) paint gloomier prospects for ad spend among retailers this year.

The retail sector recorded dramatic growth last year – up 13.6% or $18.9bn – buoyed by aggressive strategies from new entrants to western markets like Temu and Shien. Our working assumption is that these companies will significantly ease advertising activity this year as trade barriers disrupt direct routes to western consumers, stymying headline growth in the retail sector.

The tech and electronics sector spent $84.3bn on advertising last year, a bounceback of 25.0% following two years of decline (due to rising interest rates affecting tech startups) which was propelled by increased demand for microchips from AI and more fluid supply chains.

WARC forecasts a 6.2% ad spend growth in this sector to $89.5bn, a downgrade from the +13.9% forecast in November in large part reflective of new tariffs targeted at semiconductors. Both the OECD (+5.8%) and severe (+4.9%) scenarios point to a further cooling in growth.

Online platforms shrug off regulatory pressures

Search to account for more than a fifth (21.7%) of the ad market, with spend rising 8.0% to $250.0bn this year despite regulatory threats
Social media – the largest single advertising medium globally – is poised to account for a quarter of all ad spend this year
Retail media set to be joint-fastest growing advertising medium this year, though trade disruption threatens ad receipts from consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands

Last week, the European Union found Apple and Google to be in breach of its Digital Markets Act (DMA), potentially costing the pair billions of dollars in fines. The EU is also pushing back on personalisation via the Digital Fairness Act, while a recent UK court ruling could allow UK consumers to opt out of personalised advertising. These developments stand to significantly impact retail, social media and the future of paid search advertising.

These developments, coupled with the US antitrust ruling against Google late last year, show a significant souring among legislative bodies against major tech firms. Ongoing uncertainty on the practicalities and likely appeals from Google and Apple, means our growth projections for the sector remain positive.

WARC projects a rise of 8.0% for paid search this year, though this is down a point from our last forecast and 1.3pp ahead of the companion OECD scenario modelled for this release. Within this, Google is expected to record an 8.5% rise in paid search revenue, while Apple’s search business, estimated to be worth $5.1bn last year per Omdia Advertising Intelligence, should grow by a similar order.

Taken together, social media companies are expected to net $286.2bn in advertising revenue this year, up 12.1% from last year and equivalent to a quarter (24.8%) of global advertising spend. Within this, TikTok (+23.6%), Instagram (+17.0%) and Facebook (+8.6%) are expected to see healthy gains, as a long tail of advertisers leverage new generative AI tools to target consumers.

Major US retailers Walmart and Costco have reportedly requested their Chinese suppliers – who make up between one third and one half of their supply chains – cut prices to ease the pressures from new tariffs on their goods. Chinese producers also account for a ‘significant’ proportion of supply chains for global pure players like Amazon, while Chinese properties targeting western shoppers – including Temu and Shien – are particularly exposed.

Money continues to flow into the retail media market, and new commerce media entrants, from the air travel and banking sectors, are boosting the sector. WARC believes that retail media will be the joint-fastest growing medium this year, at +15.4%.

This rate is ahead of the wider pure play internet market (+10.1%) and more than double the total global growth rate, resulting in retail media’s share of global spend rising to 15.5% this year – equivalent to $178.7bn. Disruption to this ecosystem could broadly dampen ad spend within the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector, though.

Economic outlook cut across key advertising markets

US ad market expected to post a solid rise this year (+5.7%), though growth is less than half that recorded in 2024 (+13.1%)
The Chinese ad market continues to struggle with weak domestic demand; growth is set to slow to 5.3% this year and just 3.5% in 2026.
The UK, German and Japanese economies are all stalling and present a severe risk of stagflation over the forecast period

We believe the US ad market will grow 5.7% this year to $451.9bn, though this is less than half the growth rate recorded in 2024 (+13.1%). Contrary to OECD expectations for the US economy, ad market growth should accelerate in 2026, with spend rising 6.5% (+4.4% in real terms) as activity increases around the FIFA World Cup (hosted across North America) and US midterms.

China too is expected to record a slowdown in both advertising and economic growth this year when compared to 2024. Its ad market has cooled on the back of weak domestic demand, and spend is set to rise by 5.3% to $205.5bn this year compared to growth of 7.1% recorded in 2024. This year’s growth rate equates to a 3.5% rise in real terms, which lags the OECD’s expectation of 4.8% real growth in the Chinese economy (a 0.1pp upgrade on its last forecast).

Our preliminary estimate for ad market growth in the UK last year stands at +10.2%, though this is due to be confirmed next month as part of the AA/WARC Expenditure Report. The UK’s ad market is highly digital, with online ads accounting for four in five (82.6%) ad dollars. We believe the UK’s ad market will grow by 7.1% to a value of $52.6bn this year, though this is tempered to a 5.0% rise after accounting for inflation.

The outlook is tougher for Japan, where advertising spend is expected to dip by 2.0% to $40.0bn this year (-3.9% in real terms). The market is set to grow 3.3% this year when measured in local currency, demonstrating the current strength of the greenback against the yen. The OECD has downgraded its growth expectations for the Japanese economy by 0.4pp both this year and next, with economic stagnation a likelihood in 2026.

Germany’s economy is also in the doldrums, with real growth of just 0.4% expected by the OECD this year following a cut of 0.3pp from its last outlook. This sluggish growth underpins our expectations of a 2.1% fall in German advertising spend to $27.1bn this year, equivalent to a 4.1% dip in real terms after accounting for inflation.

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Port Community Systems (PCS) as the crisis backbone: how trade disruption makes digital port infrastructure non-negotiable (By Alioune Ciss)

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6 hours ago

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May 20, 2026

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Port Community Systems

With PCS, ports can dynamically allocate resources, adjust workflows, and reprioritize cargo flows using real-time data and coordinated processes

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, May 19, 2026/APO Group/ —By Alioune Ciss, Chief Executive Officer, Webb Fontaine (https://WebbFontaine.com).

When global trade flows normally, Port Community Systems (PCS) are often viewed as efficiency tools. They digitize paperwork, connect stakeholders, reduce delays, and improve visibility across port ecosystems. However, the true impact and strategic importance of PCS become most apparent when a crisis hits.

Whether caused by geopolitical conflict, canal restrictions, rerouted shipping lanes, cyber risk, labor disruption, or sudden regulatory shifts, modern supply chain shocks remind us that ports without strong digital coordination struggle to adapt, whereas ports with robust PCS infrastructure are better positioned to keep cargo moving. In today’s environment, PCS has become a critical infrastructure.

Disruption is not an exception anymore

Global maritime trade has entered a more volatile era where disruption is structural. Let’s review the recent events to understand the scale of impact:

  • Around 2,000 ships were reportedly stranded during the recent Strait of Hormuz (https://apo-opa.co/4dii0lb) crisis.
  • The Red Sea crisis (https://apo-opa.co/4dz5gFA) led to more than 190 attacks on vessels by late 2024, forcing widespread rerouting and increasing transit times by up to two weeks.
  • The Suez-linked corridor (https://apo-opa.co/4dz5gFA), which carries roughly 10–12% of global maritime trade, experienced sharp volume declines during the disruption.
  • Supply chains across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe faced cascading effects, including congestion, cost increases, and schedule instability.

At the same time, the global port industry itself is undergoing rapid transformation. According to the International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH), ports are accelerating digitalization and strengthening resilience capabilities in response to geopolitical and operational uncertainty. This is the new reality: routes shift, volumes spike, and conditions change faster than traditional systems can handle.

Why PCS matters most during a crisis

When vessel schedules collapse, or cargo volumes suddenly spike, physical infrastructure alone is not enough. Cranes, berths, gates and yards also need coordination. That is where PCS becomes the backbone of resilience.

A PCS is not just a digital tool; rather, it’s a shared operational layer. It connects shipping lines, terminals, customs, freight forwarders, transport operators, and authorities through a single data environment, enabling synchronized decision-making across the ecosystem.

Instead of exchanges through emails, phone calls, Excel files, or siloed systems that generate delays and errors, the PCS enables seamless and real-time coordination.

1. Real-time visibility across the ecosystem

When vessels are delayed or rerouted, fragmented communication becomes a liability.

PCS enables real-time visibility across:

  • vessel arrivals and berth planning
  • cargo status and documentation
  • customs readiness and inspections
  • gate operations and inland logistics

Instead of fragmented updates, stakeholders operate from a shared, trusted data environment.

When shipping lanes shift overnight, policies change, and when uncertainty increases, the strongest ports are the ones that are the most ‘connected’

In a crisis, the speed of information becomes the speed of recovery.

2. Faster decision-making under pressure

Sudden disruptions create immediate operational stress:

  • surges in transshipment volumes
  • yard congestion risks
  • inspection bottlenecks
  • inland transport delays

Without digital coordination, responses are reactive and slow.

With PCS, ports can dynamically allocate resources, adjust workflows, and reprioritize cargo flows using real-time data and coordinated processes.

3. Customs and border continuity

Cargo cannot move if border agencies cannot move.

According to joint guidance from the World Customs Organization (WCO) and International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH), interoperability between Customs systems and PCS is essential for coordinated border management, risk control, and secure data exchange (https://apo-opa.co/3PLcs9P).

In crisis conditions, this becomes critical. Governments must introduce new controls, risk filters, or emergency procedures quickly, without disrupting trade flows. PCS enables this  balance.

4. Trust and transparency for the market

Importers, exporters, and carriers can tolerate disruption more than uncertainty. What they need is visibility.

PCS provides transparency across the supply chain, allowing stakeholders to track cargo status, anticipate delays, and plan accordingly. This transparency builds trust and reduces the systemic risk of panic-driven inefficiencies.

Operational resilience is the key

As we all know, the classic PCS discussions focus on key KPIs such as:

  • reduced turnaround time
  • fewer documents
  • lower administrative cost
  • faster truck processing

But today, the most important KPI is “readiness”: If a major trade corridor shifts tomorrow, can your port ecosystem adapt in real time?

To answer “Yes” to this question, a future-ready PCS should include:

  • real-time event management
  • integrated stakeholder communication
  • predictive congestion alerts
  • interoperability with customs and regulatory systems
  • scalable architecture for demand spikes

“For years, ‘efficiency’ was key when it comes to PCS. However, today, the key is ‘resilience’… When shipping lanes shift overnight, policies change, and when uncertainty increases, the strongest ports are the ones that are the most ‘connected’… Therefore, we should treat PCS as a crisis backbone of trade, not an IT efficiency initiative.
[Alioune Ciss, CEO, Webb Fontaine]

The Next Evolution: Intelligent PCS

PCS is now entering a new phase. Next-generation systems are evolving into data-driven platforms that support predictive analytics, AI-enabled decision-making, and proactive risk management (https://apo-opa.co/4eQ93Rg).

In other words, today, ports need systems that help orchestrate responses. Solutions such as Webb Ports (https://apo-opa.co/42F3gqq) from Webb Fontaine reflect this shift. By connecting all port stakeholders through a unified platform, anticipating congestion before it happens, simulating operational scenarios, and optimizing resource allocation dynamically, we enable faster coordination, better visibility and more agile responses when disruptions occur.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Webb Fontaine.

 

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Energy

Rand Refinery Joins African Mining Week (AMW) as Silver Sponsor Amid Regional Market Expansion Strategy

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6 hours ago

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May 20, 2026

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Energy Capital

African Mining Week 2026 will showcase lucrative investment, partnership, and knowledge-exchange opportunities across Africa’s gold downstream sector, as Rand Refinery intensifies its investment and expansion strategy across the continent

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, May 19, 2026/APO Group/ –Amid a strategy to expand from a South Africa-focused refiner into a pan-African downstream leader, Rand Refinery has joined African Mining Week (AMW), an Influential African Mining Conference, scheduled for October 14-16, 2026 in Cape Town, as a silver sponsor.

Rand Refinery’s participation reflects a broader strategic alignment between the company’s expansion agenda and AMW’s focus on supporting and enabling local beneficiation and promoting artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) responsible sourcing frameworks.

 

In terms of volumes, the latest market information indicates that Africa produces 1000tpa of mined gold (more than any other continent), with large-scale mining (LSM) and ASM being almost evenly balanced (500tpa production each). On its current trajectory, African ASM volumes are expected to eclipse those of LSM.

 

The focus on ASM as a transformational imperative is valid, and Rand Refinery is an active participant in the precious metals supply chain, working alongside other upstream and downstream actors to ensure that the communities and countries with gold resources benefit in a sustainable manner.

 

Under the theme Mining the Future: Unearthing Africa’s Full Mineral Value Chain, AMW 2026 offers a critical interface between refiners, miners, regulators, and financial institutions, as African countries intensify efforts to capture more value from responsible mineral production.

 

A key pillar of Rand Refinery’s 2026 strategy is its expansion into high-growth gold markets beyond South Africa. In January 2026, the company partnered with Ghana’s Gold Coast Refinery (GCR) to support the Ghana Gold Board to locally refine artisanal and small-scale (ASM) gold and elevate responsible sourcing standards in West Africa. The partnership also positions Rand Refinery in a rapidly growing and historically fragmented supply segment: ASM operations, enabling the company to enhance traceability and strengthen compliance with global standards for ethical sourcing and anti-money laundering.

 

The partnership potentially allows the monetization of ASM supply streams in the formal gold ecosystem, complementing Rand Refinery’s established role in refining output from responsible large-scale producers. AMW 2026 represents a timely platform for the company to provide an update on its projects and contribution to Africa’s gold sector.

 

As demand for regional refining capacity expands, along with central bank buying programs, companies such as Rand Refinery will be crucial.

 

Central bank gold purchases are projected to average around 585 tons per quarter in 2026, underscoring sustained global demand. In Africa, gold now accounts for approximately 17% of total reserves – up from less than 10% in 2022–2023 – while physical holdings increased from 663 tons in 2022 to an estimated 738 tons in 2025.

 

This upward trajectory is driving demand for trusted refining and value addition services, positioning Rand Refinery as a key partner in the region. Against this backdrop, AMW provides a strategic platform for central banks and gold buyers to engage directly with one of the world’s largest integrated single-site precious metals refining and smelting complexes and strengthen regional beneficiation and national reserve strategies.

 

At AMW, Rand Refinery executives will participate in panel discussions and networking sessions, engaging stakeholders on partnership opportunities that support a more integrated, transparent and value-driven African gold ecosystem.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Business

Applications open for the 2027 Meltwater Entrepreneurial School of Technology (MEST) Africa AI Startup Program

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6 hours ago

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May 20, 2026

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Meltwater

Join a global community of AI entrepreneurs

ACCRA, Ghana, May 19, 2026/APO Group/ –The Meltwater Entrepreneurial School of Technology (MEST) (https://Meltwater.org), has opened applications for the second edition of the MEST AI Startup Program, a fully-funded, immersive experience designed to equip Africa’s most promising AI entrepreneurs with the technical, business, product, and leadership skills to build and scale globally competitive AI startups.

Over a seven-month training phase, the MEST AI Startup program will provide founders with hands-on instruction, technical mentorship, and business coaching from global experts to develop AI-powered solutions. The top startups will then advance to a four-month incubation period to refine products, sharpen go-to-market strategies, and secure market traction. At the end of incubation, startups have the opportunity to pitch for pre-seed investment of up to $100,000 and join the MEST Portfolio.

We are excited to support the next generation of African AI founders through training delivered by some of the most knowledgeable experts in the industry

The inaugural cohort brought together founders from seven African countries who are already building transformative AI solutions across industries. Building on the momentum of the first edition, the 2027 intake reflects MEST Africa’s continued commitment to ensuring African entrepreneurs play a defining role in the future of artificial intelligence.

According to Emily Fiagbedzi, AI Startup Program Director, the urgency of investing in African AI talent has never been greater.

“AI technology is advancing at an extraordinary pace, and meaningful participation in the global AI economy requires more than access to tools, it requires the ability to build,” she said. “This program is designed to help talented African founders develop solutions to real challenges while positioning them to compete globally. We are excited to support the next generation of African AI founders through training delivered by some of the most knowledgeable experts in the industry from organizations including OpenAI, Perplexity, Google, and Meltwater”

For the 2027 intake, the program is open to African founders based in Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal, and Kenya aged 21–35 with software development experience who want to start their own AI startup.

Apply now at https://apo-opa.co/3ReIQSI

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The Meltwater Entrepreneurial School of Technology (MEST Africa).

 

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