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Rand Merchant Bank (RMB): African Risk is not Fairly Priced – Governments Should Take Advantage (By Miranda Abraham)

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Rand Merchant Bank

African banks and investors are desperate for assets and are very comfortable assessing and understanding sub investment grade African risk

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, October 31, 2023/APO Group/ — 

By Miranda Abraham, Head of Loan Syndications at RMB in London (www.RMB.co.za)

Yield-chasing investors have poured money into the continent but an emerging, recent challenge for Africa is that in a now higher interest rate environment, investors don’t need to come to Africa to find higher returns.

Even US treasuries are now yielding far more attractive yields than just a month ago: 3-month government bonds offer 5.32% and while 2-year bonds offer a yield above 5%. Yields have risen in part in response to Fitch’s recent downgrade of the US from AAA to AA+, echoing S&P’s move in 2011.

African bond issuers, spooked by the high-interest rate environment and refusing to issue bonds above the psychological barrier of double-digit yields for Sub-Saharan African bonds, continue to wait it out on the sidelines.

But with interest rates continuing to climb, the wait-and-see strategy is no longer looking like a sensible approach. Issuers are running out of cash and the more stable and resilient syndicated loan market – with its heavily relationship-driven pricing, is increasingly proving to be an alluring alternative to the bond market.

African governments should therefore bring forward planned borrowing before the capital shifts away, as it is already starting to do, and the cost of borrowing rises further still.

The syndicated loan market is dominated by relationship banks, who will consciously and willingly price a loan at very low yields, in order to secure a lead mandate and lock in the ancillary opportunities and revenues that come with being a core relationship bank. 

Banks do this knowing that they will also be able to persuade other relationship banks to join the deal as well. This is why syndicated loans always tend to price at a subsidized level when compared to bonds – where investors are more agnostic and definitely less loyal – focusing instead on the relative value of opportunities across the market.

However, while bond prices have skyrocketed, the loan market has hardly moved in terms of pricing. Yes, base rates are higher, resulting in higher all-in costs for borrowers, but on an all-in basis, when compared to bonds, issuing a syndicated loan is definitely the cheaper option for borrowers.

But why have African issuers managed to price debt at such attractive levels for so long?

There are three main reasons:

In order to attract their investment into Africa, pricing on these credit enhanced deals has to be highly attractive

  • Finite supply: There is a limited supply of investable assets in Africa and those banks with an African focus are eager to support their key clients and to get exposure to the African market, which is seen as having strong growth potential. 
  • Difficulties in assessing risk: It can be difficult to assess the credit risk of African borrowers. This is because there is less historical data available, and the political, legal and regulatory environment is often complex. Joining a syndicated loan or bond that has been oversubscribed and so carries the stamp of endorsement from the market can be an attractive solution to this challenge.
  • Those issuers that are active in the loan market tend to bring with them an array of other ancillary opportunities (e.g. IPO, Eurobond, and Advisory mandates), in a region where businesses that are succeeding are usually experiencing high growth.

So finite supply leads to fierce competition for these prestigious African clients and the fact that these credits are complex and difficult to understand exacerbates the problem. 

As a result of these factors, African risk is often not being priced fairly. South Africa is a good example of how African risk can be underpriced. Despite losing its investment grade rating in 2017, South African corporates and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) continue to price their debt like they are in Western Europe. This is because there is a limited pool of opportunities for those banks that prefer to lend in ZAR to invest in.  

Relationship pricing works for the banks because they are able to use the revenues from ancillary business to subsidize their commitment to the loan, but for regular investors (who are typically looking on an asset play basis) they can end up being short-changed. This means that investors may be taking on more risk than they realise, for a relatively low return.

However, instead of adjusting pricing upwards, the imbalance is being addressed another way – by adjusting risk.

Reducing the risk keeps pricing low and so address issuers concerns around paying double-digit yields.

Risk mitigation tools (in the form of ECA wraps, DFI guarantees or insurance wraps) are being embedded into loans and so while pricing remains low, investors improve their returns through adjusting the risk.

These type of credit risk mitigated deals, result in investment grade ratings, but with a substantial African premium. In the EUR 1bn Bank of Industry deal, BOI/AFC pays a yield of about 200bps versus an average yield of 75ps for an A3 rated credit in Europe. It is the only way for many international and European banks – who typically shy away from low BB or single B African risk – to fill their African buckets. 

These investors have a whole world of investment opportunities available to them, from AAA through to single B risk, usually across the globe, so they can pick and choose their deals.  Consequently, in order to attract their investment into Africa, pricing on these credit enhanced deals has to be highly attractive relative to other similarly opportunities globally.

However for those emerging market investors or African banks focused on Africa, their return hurdle requirements mean that the credit enhanced deals do not work for them. 

Instead, they are obliged to find African opportunities that represent real, uncovered African risk.  However, the market paralysis created by a difficult credit environment, combined with the fact that a large proportion of those deals that do come to market include some form of credit enhancement, means that the pool of deals offering pure, uncovered African risk is now much smaller.

And this is where supply and demand dynamics take over. 

African banks and investors are desperate for assets and are very comfortable assessing and understanding sub investment grade African risk. However this dynamic of fewer deals but strong investor demand has led to plentiful pent up liquidity down the credit curve.

Ironically, once African investors get over the hurdle of higher return requirements (often driven by higher cost of funding) there is such relief that pricing works from a returns perspective, that they can then end up effectively under-pricing the actual credit risk. So we end up with BB- loans paying only 450bps versus BB average bond yields of 12%.

Investors in Africa are a finite pool who know and understand African risk. They deserve to be fairly compensated for the risk they take.  

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Rand Merchant Bank.

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Zambia–Lobito Railway Moves Towards Financial Close as President Hichilema Meets Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) Leadership

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Zambia

Project advances towards financing with preferred EPC bidders selected and letters of intent covering approximately 2 million tonnes a year signed

LUSAKA, Zambia, November 6, 2026/APO Group/ –His Excellency Hakainde Hichilema, President of the Republic of Zambia, has received a delegation from Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) (www.AfricaFC.org), led by its President and Chief Executive Officer, Samaila Zubairu, to review progress on the Zambia–Lobito Railway Project. AFC, the continent’s leading infrastructure solutions provider, is the lead sponsor and developer of the project.

The approximately 830-kilometre railway will connect Chingola in Zambia’s Copperbelt to Luacano in Angola, where it will link with the existing Benguela Railway and provide direct access to the Atlantic Ocean through the Port of Lobito.

 




 
 

A strategic component of the broader Lobito Corridor initiative, the project has reached several important development milestones. AFC last month announced preferred bidders for the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contracts for the Angolan and Zambian sections, following an international competitive tender. The project has also signed memoranda of understanding and letters of intent with prospective railway users covering approximately 2 million tonnes of freight a year.

Every tonne that leaves Zambia unprocessed takes jobs away with it

In addition to providing a direct Atlantic export route for Zambia’s copper and critical minerals, the project is being developed as an integrated economic corridor supporting agricultural exports, petroleum logistics, manufacturing and regional trade. Transit from the Copperbelt to the Port of Lobito is expected to take approximately seven days.

The project’s commercial strategy targets approximately 5 million tonnes of annual freight at steady state, comprising petroleum products, agricultural commodities, copper, cobalt, zinc and other industrial cargo. AFC is targeting financial close in 2027.

Discussions focused on continued collaboration between AFC and the Government of Zambia on the project’s next steps, including the railway’s right of way and land for associated agricultural, petroleum and freight-handling facilities. The meeting also considered rail sector policy measures to support the corridor’s long-term competitiveness, including integration with the Zambia Railways network and the Chingola–Ndola line.

President Hichilema reaffirmed the railway’s importance to Zambia’s economic development and regional integration. He said: “The Zambia–Lobito Railway is central to our vision of transforming Zambia into a competitive regional hub for trade, manufacturing, agriculture and mineral value addition. By connecting our productive sectors to international markets more efficiently, we can reduce logistics costs, attract investment and create jobs. We welcome AFC’s progress and will continue working closely together to advance this strategic project.”

Samaila Zubairu, President and Chief Executive Officer of AFC, said: “Every tonne that leaves Zambia unprocessed takes jobs away with it. This railway changes that. Starting in Chingola, it gives Zambia a seven-day route to the Atlantic and every reason to process, manufacture and add value at home. With preferred EPC bidders selected and strong interest from freight users, we are now working with the Governments of Zambia and Angola, the African Development Bank, the Government of Italy and our other partners to reach financial close. We are building a railway. Zambia will build an economy on it.”

AFC continues to work with the Governments of Angola and Zambia, the European Union, the United States Government, the Government of Italy and the African Development Bank, alongside Italian development finance institution CDP and Italian export credit agency SACE, to bring the Zambia–Lobito Railway into construction.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

 




 

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Mukuru Partners with Flash to Add 170,000 Cash Pay-in Points Across South Africa

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Mukuru

New partnership brings remittance payments into township, peri-urban and rural spaza shops nationwide

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, November 6, 2026/APO Group/ –Mukuru (www.Mukuru.com), a leading financial services provider, has partnered with Flash, a payments technology company with an extensive network of spaza shops across South Africa, adding 170,000 cash pay-in points where customers can now pay for their Mukuru remittance orders. The network includes Flash’s broader merchant footprint, giving Mukuru access to locations through Flash and its partner networks. These new locations are now operational, reducing the time and distance many customers currently travel to make a payment.

Previously, customers often had to travel to banks or dedicated payment outlets to pay for their Mukuru orders. Now, they can simply visit a spaza shop close to home, work or where they usually shop.

For people in townships, peri-urban and rural areas who rely on cash and have traditionally had limited access to formal pay-in points, particularly South Africa’s migrant communities, this change removes a real barrier and makes it easier to send money home. With these pay-in points inside spaza shops, Mukuru’s services become part of places people already go, meaning fewer extra trips and more timely payments.

Every additional pay-in point represents one less barrier for a customer trying to send money home

“Every additional pay-in point represents one less barrier for a customer trying to send money home,” said Erone Kyte, Commercial Manager: Cross-Border Remittances at Mukuru. “Our partnership with Flash gives us the scale to bring Mukuru’s services into the everyday spaces our customers already know and trust. It’s a meaningful step in making remittances simpler, more accessible and genuinely closer to the communities we serve.”

For Mukuru, working with Flash means reaching even more customers in underserved urban, township, and rural areas. By leveraging Flash’s established network, Mukuru can now offer cash pay-in options where they didn’t exist before. The expanded network is expected to help more people access Mukuru’s services, support growth in its South African customer base, and make cross-border payments more convenient.

Rens Rezelman, General Manager for Flash’s Merchant Division, commented, “Flash works to bridge the digital product and payments gap between businesses and consumers across the country. Launching Mukuru across our network presents another opportunity to bring a familiar brand closer to the people who need it most.”

The sector is now recognised as a R750 billion  industry. According to data tracked by Trade Intelligence, total turnover recently reached R197 billion, growing at roughly 15% annually. Research confirms that traditional trade and spaza shops are growing faster than large supermarket chains, with almost 80% of South African households shopping at these traditional trade outlets regularly. (https://apo-opa.co/4iDwZr8) Bringing Mukuru payments to these stores is a natural fit and helps shop owners draw in more customers and offer more services to their communities. Mukuru and Flash will build awareness of the new pay-in option through store, digital, and community promotions in the coming months.

This partnership is part of Mukuru’s ongoing drive to make cash pay-ins easier and improve access to remittance services for people living and working in areas with limited formal financial services. Over the past two years, the company has made similar moves to make its payment network bigger and more accessible across the region.

Mukuru customers looking to pay closer to home can easily find their nearest participating Flash pay-in point using the Mukuru app or website.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Mukuru.

 

 




 

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How CESI is helping shape Africa’s next-gen power grids

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CESI

CESI, a global engineering and consulting company specialising in power systems and energy transition, has supported utilities, transmission system operators and public institutions

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, November 6, 2026/APO Group/ –Across Africa, power systems are undergoing a profound transformation. Rapid population growth, urbanisation, industrial development and ambitious electrification goals are increasing pressure on networks that must improve reliability, integrate growing volumes of renewable energy and strengthen regional interconnections.

 




 
 

For utilities, regulators and governments, this creates a dual challenge: planning future power systems while modernising the infrastructure required to operate them safely and efficiently.

Drawing on projects delivered across the continent CESI, a global engineering and consulting company specialising in power systems and energy transition, has supported utilities, transmission system operators and public institutions in addressing both long-term planning requirements and grid modernisation challenges. These experiences highlight how strategic planning and operational modernisation are becoming increasingly interconnected.

Planning for growth in a changing energy landscape

Many African countries are updating power sector strategies to reflect changing demand patterns, evolving technologies and new regional opportunities. National master plans in countries including Angola, Mozambique and Liberia are examining how generation, transmission and distribution systems can evolve over the coming decades while remaining technically feasible and financially sustainable.

A key trend is the growing emphasis on integrated planning. Rather than treating generation, transmission and distribution separately, stakeholders are increasingly assessing investments across the entire value chain to meet future demand efficiently and reliably. Demand forecasting methodologies are also evolving, considering industrial development, electric mobility and broader electrification trends.

Renewable energy integration is another central consideration. Africa possesses significant solar, wind and hydropower resources, but integrating these technologies requires careful assessment of transmission capacity, system flexibility, reserve requirements and grid stability. In this context, CESI has contributed to power sector master plans and network studies evaluating future development pathways while addressing reliability, economic and energy transition objectives.

Regional interconnections as strategic infrastructure

Regional integration continues to play an increasingly important role in Africa’s electricity sector. Future Interconnection projects linking countries such as Ethiopia and Somalia, Uganda and Tanzania, and Uganda and South Sudan demonstrate how cross-border infrastructure can enhance energy security and optimise the use of available generation resources.

Delivering these projects requires more than engineering analysis. Technical, economic, regulatory and operational considerations must be aligned among participating countries. Through its involvement in several interconnection initiatives at different stages across Africa, CESI has supported stakeholders in assessing feasibility, network performance and operational requirements for cross-border electricity exchanges.

As regional power markets continue to develop, interconnected systems are expected to contribute further to reliability, operational flexibility and efficient resource utilisation.

Modernising grid operations for greater reliability

Alongside long-term planning, utilities are investing in modern operational technologies to improve management of increasingly complex power systems. Control centres, SCADA systems, energy management systems (EMS) and telecommunications networks are becoming essential components of modern grid operations.

In countries including Mozambique and Angola, projects are supporting the development of advanced control centres capable of monitoring generation facilities, transmission networks and interconnections through integrated operational platforms. These systems provide operators with real-time visibility and decision-support capabilities that strengthen system reliability and operational efficiency.

Meanwhile, programmes in Tunisia and Nigeria illustrate how utilities are upgrading ageing SCADA and EMS infrastructures to meet evolving requirements. Modern solutions increasingly incorporate

  • cybersecurity,
  • wide-area monitoring capabilities and
  • renewable energy management functions.

CESI’s experience in control centres, SCADA/EMS systems and power system operations reflects the growing importance of digital technologies in enabling more resilient and responsive electricity networks.

Building resilience and technical capacity

Environmental and social considerations are becoming increasingly important across both planning and modernisation initiatives. Climate resilience now plays a central role in infrastructure development, particularly in countries exposed to extreme weather events or heavily dependent on hydropower resources. As a result, environmental and social assessments are increasingly integrated into project design and investment decision-making processes.

Capacity building is equally important. New technologies and analytical tools require utilities and public institutions to continually strengthen technical capabilities. Training and knowledge-transfer programmes have therefore become integral components of many planning, interconnection and grid modernisation projects, helping organisations develop the expertise needed to manage increasingly sophisticated power systems.

An integrated approach to Africa’s power future

Several common themes are emerging across Africa’s electricity sector. Utilities are adopting longer-term planning horizons, renewable energy is becoming a central driver of network development, regional interconnections are expanding opportunities for power exchange, and digitalisation is transforming power system operations.

Together, these trends point towards a broader evolution of African power systems. The challenge is no longer simply expanding infrastructure, but ensuring that future networks are planned, operated and modernised in a coordinated manner. Achieving this objective will require continued collaboration among utilities, governments, regulators, financiers and technical stakeholders.

Experience across the continent suggests that integrating sound planning with targeted grid modernisation can support the development of more reliable, resilient and adaptable power systems, helping meet Africa’s long-term economic and social development goals.

CESI is a partner of ESI Africa, the power, energy, water, transport and utility multimedia platform that forms part of VUKA Group.

Read the article and access more information: https://apo-opa.co/47Xr1g3

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of VUKA Group.

 

 




 

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