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Windfall or Mismatch? How the United States-Iran Conflict Aligns with Venezuela’s Oil Comeback

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African Energy Chamber

Rising prices and supply disruption are boosting Venezuela’s relevance – but timing, volatility and structural constraints complicate the narrative

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, April 22, 2026/APO Group/ –The U.S.–Iran conflict has triggered a sharp tightening of global oil markets, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constraining flows and pushing prices upward. As supply uncertainty deepens, buyers are scrambling to secure alternative barrels, elevating the strategic value of producers outside the Middle East. In theory, this creates a near-perfect opening for Venezuela – home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves – to reassert itself in global markets. But the timing raises a more complex question: is Venezuela’s recovery genuinely aligned with this geopolitical window, or is the overlap more coincidental than transformational?

The African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Conference and Exhibition – taking place October 12–16 in Cape Town – will interrogate precisely this dynamic during a roundtable session focused on Africa and Venezuela. With discussions centered on geopolitical risk, supply diversification and the emergence of alternative producers – both across Africa and South America – the event provides a timely platform to assess whether Venezuela’s resurgence is durable or simply opportunistic.

Global Supply Shocks Send Buyers Scrambling

The ongoing Middle East conflict has sent global oil and gas markets into a state of volatility, with disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz – responsible for 20% of global oil trade – placing up to 15 million barrels per day (bpd) at risk. The conflict has also sent oil prices skyrocketing by 60% in March to $120 per barrel, partially pulling back to around $92-$95 per barrel in April. At first glance, this creates incentives for non-Gulf producers to increase exports, as import-heavy economies in Asia and Europe seek alternative barrels.

In theory, Venezuela – with over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves – could benefit from this windfall, but years of U.S. sanctions and underinvestment have seen production fall from a peak of three million bpd in 1998 to 900,000 bpd in 2025. Recent policy shifts – including U.S. licensing measures allowing select foreign companies to operate Venezuelan assets – could turn this trend around, but unlikely in the immediate-term.

Venezuela has the resources and the market interest, but converting that into sustained growth requires stability, policy clarity and execution

As such, the timing of the Gulf conflict creates a form of mismatch for Venezuela. The country’s oil recovery is gradual, while the market opportunity is episodic. Buyers are not committing to long-term shifts in supply chains; they are managing short-term risk through flexible procurement. The result is a fragmented market response rather than a decisive reallocation of global trade flows. Therefore, if disruptions ease or stabilize before Venezuela significantly scales production, the window may narrow before it is fully captured.

Venezuela’s Oil Recovery Gains Ground – But Structural Constraints Persist

Following years of sanctions, Venezuela’s oil recovery seems to be moving in the right direction. The U.S. issued General License 46A in early 2026, authorizing U.S. entities to engage in transactions necessary to the lifting, exportation, re-exportation, sale, re-sale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery or transportation of Venezuelan-origin oil. In April 2026, the U.S. went a step further, easing sanctions imposed on Venezuela’s central bank. Market activity is also increasing. Chevron signed a deal with Venezuela’s PDVSA to trade its offshore gas holdings for a larger footprint in the Orinoco Belt.

With the emergence of the Gulf conflict, elevated oil prices and supply insecurity are increasing Venezuela’s geopolitical value, particularly for U.S. Gulf Coast and European refiners configured for heavy crude. This comes as Venezuelan exports to the U.S. are once again gaining traction. Recent shipping data shows Venezuelan crude exports surpassing one million bpd in March 2026 – the first time since September 2025 – backed by increased sales to India and Caribbean states. In February, shipments to the U.S. rose 32%, with PDVSA signing supply contracts with the U.S. in March 2026.

These moves demonstrate a shift toward global energy and financial market re-entry, marking a step in Venezuela’s oil recovery. Yet even with improved market access, scaling output is neither immediate nor straightforward.

“Geopolitical disruption can create opportunity, but it doesn’t fix fundamentals. Venezuela has the resources and the market interest, but converting that into sustained growth requires stability, policy clarity and execution. Without that, the upside remains constrained,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.

Ultimately, the key issue is not whether Venezuela benefits from higher prices – it will. The more important question is whether this moment translates into structural repositioning or remains another cyclical upswing driven by external shocks.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Venezuela’s Revised Hydrocarbons Law Ties Investor Terms to Asset Type

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Etu Energias

New contract models and tiered fiscal rates give companies several routes into Venezuela, each matched to a different class of upstream asset

CARACAS, Venezuela, October 28, 2026/APO Group/ –Venezuela’s amended Organic Hydrocarbons Law has opened several distinct routes into the country’s oil and gas sector, each suited to a different type of asset and a different appetite for operational control. Heavy-oil acreage in the Orinoco Belt, mature onshore fields, offshore gas and refining are all available to international capital, and Venezuela Energy Week (VEW) 2027 will bring the companies weighing those options to Caracas to negotiate directly with PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons.

 




 
 

The government made its pitch in Cape Town, South Africa last week, where Vice Minister of Commercial Policy Ricardo Gomez presented 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 193 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at the Venezuela Global Investment Forum during African Energy Week (AEW) 2026. “The opportunities extend from upstream projects to downstream and refining,” he said, as PDVSA works toward its target of 105 definitive oil contracts by year-end.

Participation Contracts

The most direct route is the hydrocarbon productive participation contract (CPPH). Under it, a Venezuela-domiciled company operates a designated area at its own cost and risk for 25 years. With ministry approval, it can also market its share of production. Eni moved its Junín-5 heavy-oil field onto the model in September. The Italian company left its minority joint venture position to become exclusive operator of an asset holding 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place.

Joint Ventures

Companies preferring a partnership can enter a restructured joint venture with PDVSA. The state company keeps majority ownership, but can now hand operational management and marketing rights to its international partners. Mature fields are open through either structure, and their existing wells and infrastructure offer a quicker path to revenue. GeoPark took the contract route at the Bare field – a heavy-oil asset in the Orinoco Belt – under a 25-year agreement. It plans to reactivate up to 1,100 wells and lift output to around 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) by 2038.

Infrastructure Contracts

Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive

Direct ministerial contracts and strategic alliances cover oilfield services and infrastructure. Projects on offer include pipeline rehabilitation, export terminals and refinery upgrades. Domestic refineries currently process 350,000 bpd, and PDVSA aims to raise throughput to as much as 600,000 bpd in 2027.

Offshore Gas Follows Its Own Licensing Track

Offshore gas is awarded through a separate licensing process. bp, a Gold Sponsor of VEW 2027, operates the second phase of the cross-border Loran field. It holds the license in equal shares with Abu Dhabi’s XRG and Qatar’s UCC Oil and Gas Holding.

Tiered Fiscal Terms Support Investment Across the Value Chain

Each route to investment sits within a revised fiscal regime. Regulations published in July cap royalties at 30% and the integrated hydrocarbons tax at 15%, with combined rates of 20% for greenfield projects, 25% for extra-heavy oil, 30% for non-producing brownfields and 35% for producing brownfields. Qualifying offshore projects and developments incorporating upgrading or refining infrastructure may receive reductions of up to five percentage points.

“Venezuela is seeing a lot of interest as a result of aggressive fiscal and regulatory changes that are making the country more attractive,” Scott Gilbert, Non-Executive Chairman of Apertura Energy, told the AEW forum.

Companies entering through a CPPH will need a locally incorporated entity, and securing marketing authorization early gives operators greater control over revenue. U.S. companies also structure contracts around the conditions attached to Treasury general licenses, which govern how payments and contract law are handled in deals with PDVSA.

VEW 2027 will put those terms on the table in Caracas, with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and PDVSA, both patrons of the event, meeting investors across two conference days and a day of site visits. By February, PDVSA’s year-end contracting drive is expected to have produced additional agreements, giving investors a clearer picture of how the revised contractual and fiscal frameworks are being applied in practice.

VEW 2027 takes place February 22–25 at the Simon Bolivar Convention Center in Caracas. Organized by Energy Capital & Power and taking place under the patronage of Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, PDVSA and the Ministry of Hydrocarbons, VEW is the country’s flagship oil and gas investment platform. To register or learn more about sponsorship and speaking opportunities, visit www.VenezuelaEnergyWeek.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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African Energy Chamber (AEC) Applauds Afreximbank President George Elombi as Billions in Financing Drive Africa’s Industrial Growth

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African Energy Chamber

Since assuming leadership in October 2025, Dr. George Elombi has overseen major financing commitments across Africa’s energy, mining and industrial sectors

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, October 26, 2026/APO Group/ –The African Energy Chamber (AEC) (https://EnergyChamber.org/) has commended Dr. George Elombi, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), for his decisive leadership in advancing African industrialization, energy security and economic integration. Since succeeding Professor Benedict Oramah in October 2025, Dr. Elombi has overseen a series of landmark financing commitments spanning oil and gas, critical minerals, infrastructure and manufacturing, demonstrating the growing capacity of African financial institutions to mobilize capital for the continent’s development.
 




 

“I was privileged to attend the inauguration of Dr. George Elombi in October 2025 as Afreximbank President and Chairman, succeeding Professor Benedict Oramah. Since that day, I have watched a man of few words keep the promises he made not with grand speeches, but with practical action. At this crossroads in our history, Dr. Elombi understands that leadership is not about occupying the moment. It is about shaping the future,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, AEC.

A cornerstone of Dr. Elombi’s commitment to Africa’s energy sector is the establishment of the Africa Energy Bank (AEB) alongside the African Petroleum Producers Organization. Designed to finance large-scale energy and infrastructure projects across the continent, the AEB will use a corridor approach, prioritizing projects that deliver regional economic development across four pillars: export infrastructure, domestic infrastructure, clean cooking and power. The bank is expected to become operational within weeks and begin financing projects at the start of 2027.

At this crossroads in our history, Dr. Elombi understands that leadership is not about occupying the moment

Dr. Elombi’s work is reflected in a series of milestones reached by Afreximbank in recent months as the bank moves to advance intra-African trade, mobilize capital and bring new countries into its mission. In April 2026, South Africa acceded to the Establishment Agreement of the bank, marking the entry of one of the continent’s biggest economies into the bank’s membership. With the move, Afreximbank launched major financial interventions in the country, including a $8 billion Country Program designed to deepen economic growth. According to Dr. Elombi, South Africa’s membership builds on a strong pipeline of Afreximbank-led projects in the country, exceeding $6 billion and spanning healthcare, energy, manufacturing, financial services and mining.

Beyond South Africa, Afreximbank continues to advance financing for strategic projects across a myriad of sectors. Notable transactions include a $3.8 billion agreement with Gabon to support manganese and gold trading as well as energy development and rail infrastructure; a $25 million facility for Lilium Gold to support operations at the Boungou and Wahgnion mines in Burkino Faso; and a $1.75 billion syndicated receivables-purchase facility for Angola’s national oil company Sonangol. In Nigeria, the bank announced a $2.5 billion underwriting commitment – part of a $4 billion syndicated facility – for Dangote Petroleum and Petrochemicals as well as a $750 million reserve-based lending facility for Heirs Energies, supporting indigenous African energy capacity.

The bank was also responsible for the first-recorded Southern African energy sector transaction through the Africa Trade Gateway – a one-stop digital trade ecosystem developed by Afreximbank and the African Continental Free Trade Area. The transaction features a $5.3 million cross-border gasoil trade involving Zimbabwe. One of the most significant developments

Afreximbank’s mandate transcends energy. The bank continues to mobilize capital for infrastructure that can connect African markets, supporting continent-wide industrialization and job creation. In healthcare, the African Medical Center of Excellence in Ajuba, a landmark 170-bed specialty healthcare center developed by Afreximbank, has set a new standard in healthcare in the country. The facility treats more than 5,000 patients from over 20 countries, with plans to expand to 500 beds in the near-term.

“This is more than a list of transactions; it is a practical expression of economic sovereignty, financing African businesses, moving African commodities, developing African infrastructure and keeping more value on the continent,” Ayuk said. “Dr. Elombi is running his race. He is not chasing applause; he is building momentum. He knows that Africa’s future will be secured by institutions that are bold enough to invest, disciplined enough to deliver, and confident enough to believe in Africa’s own capacity.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027 Places Infrastructure at the Center of Libya’s Energy Expansion with Dedicated Forum

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From gas processing and ports to downstream infrastructure and regional pipelines, LEES 2027 will examine the infrastructure required to support Libya’s next phase of energy growth

TRIPOLI, Libya, October 26, 2026/APO Group/ –Libya’s push to expand oil and gas production is creating a parallel requirement for investment in the infrastructure needed to process, transport and commercialize additional energy supplies. With more than $20 billion committed to the Waha concessions alone and major gas, industrial and logistics projects advancing, infrastructure integration is emerging as a key component of the country’s investment agenda.

 




 
 

Against this backdrop, the Libya Energy & Economic Summit (LEES) 2027, taking place January 23–25 in Tripoli, will feature a dedicated Infrastructure and Integration Forum. The forum will examine how Libya can convert its growing resource base into productive domestic infrastructure and stronger regional ties.

As Libya seeks to process more hydrocarbons domestically and capture greater value from refined products, the country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) is pursuing refinery modernization and expanded petrochemical manufacturing. That strategy is being reinforced by upstream expansion, including a more than $20 billion, 25-year Waha development deal with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips targeting up to 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional capacity.

Meanwhile, the National Development Agency has signed 13 agreements with Chinese companies for projects at the 1,000-hectare Magroun Industrial Zone, covering industrial chemicals, advancing manufacturing and construction materials. The Ministry of Industry’s 100-Day Plan is supporting the country’s wider development push through infrastructure and digital reforms aimed at improving industrial investment.

Gas provides another major infrastructure opportunity set to be showcased at LEES 2027. Eni’s $8 billion Structures A&E project is designed to move offshore gas to the Mellitah treatment plant, with infrastructure targeting 750 million cubic feet per day (mmscf/d) in 2027. The project follows the successful start-up of the Sabratha Compression Project in June 2026. Led by Eni in partnership with the NOC – through the Mellitah Oil & Gas joint venture – the project has an overall compression capacity of 440 mmscf/d.

On the maritime side, the $2.7 billion Misurata Port expansion is set to transform the facility into a major Mediterranean logistics hub, with planned capacity of 4 million containers annually and 8,400 direct jobs. The project also incorporates local supplier development, linking maritime expansion with efforts to build domestic supply chains.

Beyond domestic infrastructure Libya is strengthening its connections to regional neighbors. The country is advancing negotiations with Egypt for an 800-km Tobruk-Alexandria crude pipeline, estimated at $1.5 billion–$2 billion and targeting initial capacity of 150,000–250,000 bpd. The NOC is also working to maximize the 11-billion-cubic-meter annual capacity of the GreenStream pipeline, connecting coastal facilities in Libya to European markets via Sicily.

Taken together, these projects show an increasingly integrated Libyan investment agenda – connecting upstream production with downstream industry, gas infrastructure, logistics and cross-border energy markets. LEES 2027’s Infrastructure and Integration Forum will bring those investment opportunities together in one platform, highlighting the NOC and Ministry-led push to build the infrastructure required for Libya’s next phase of economic growth.

For more information about LEES 2027, please visit https://LibyaSummit.com/​.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 

 




 

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