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Media in 2025: defined by abundance, driven by algorithms

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WARC releases The Future of Media 2025 highlighting trends in media planning, advertising investments and the media ecosystem
16 January 2025 – WARC’s latest forecasts show that global advertising spend surpassed $1trn for the first time in 2024, and is expected to grow 10.7% this year, to a total of $1.08trn. Global ad spend has more than doubled over the last decade, growing 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014, with more media channels available to marketers than ever before.

The Future of Media 2025 report takes a look at how the endless optionality within the media ecosystem creates new opportunities for marketers to drive effectiveness and deliver growth. It looks at how Google search is being disrupted by social and retail platforms, as well as the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI), and finally, the developments within the retail media and commerce sector and how advertisers can adjust to an environment where commerce is increasingly ‘everywhere’.
Paul Stringer, Managing Editor, Research & Insights, WARC, says: “Today, media is so vast, so complex, and so changeable, that it can be difficult for brands to make sense of it all. As we reach the midpoint of the decade, this is also the most exciting time to be a media planner.“Digital advertising has matured beyond direct-response to support brand-building and long-term effectiveness, advertisers are focusing more on quality over cost when deciding which media environments to advertise in, and signal fidelity is improving thanks to the growth of AI-powered media solutions and an influx of retail media and commerce media networks.“With this report we aim to help marketers navigate these challenges and opportunities as we explore the three key trends set to shape the media and advertising environment this year.”The key trends outlined in The Future of Media 2025 are:Planning in an era of abundanceMedia diversity brings new opportunities for brands to drive growth over the short- and the long-term using smart combinations of different media channels.Planning holistically and choosing the right combination will be different for every brand and vary by context and objective. Media quality, reach and price, will be critical in helping planners determine the optimum stack for brands.As spend and sentiment shifts to channels like social, influencers, podcasts and gaming, new tactics for brand building are emerging. Advertisers are adapting campaigns for platforms where attention is more fleeting, and lots of little exposures need to work together to improve brand outcomes.Across channels like search and social, advertisers will be required to adapt campaigns to fit the preferences of algorithms. This may mean adopting new methods and processes, or putting more trust in AI systems to automate parts of campaign management – even if this means sacrificing autonomy and control.New challenges and opportunities in searchThis year, more than $220bn will be spent on generic search globally, per WARC forecasts, with Google taking more than 80% of the share. However, social media is rivalling Google as the young people’s search platforms of choice for brand discovery.The future of search appears to be about intent rather than information, supported by sophisticated uses of AI.Developments in AI are leading traditional search providers and new entrants to compete to “identify consumer intent in ever more granular ways”. Access to these insights should help brands build a more sophisticated and nuanced understanding of audience behaviours, leading to more personalised and relevant communications.AI-driven search requires a rethinking of search engine optimization (SEO). In the near future, brands may need to optimise messaging and content to ensure they are visible and represented favourably in AI-based search results.This approach – which some are calling Large Language Model Optimisation (LLMO) – will require a different set of skills and processes compared to traditional SEO.Brands may need to adopt more diverse search strategies to account for the growing fragmentation of search experiences across retail and social platforms and variables such as audience, type of search and category.Retail growth fuels commerce media expansionCommerce is increasingly everywhere. Retail media is expanding, reaching $154.8bn in advertising spend globally in 2024 with a further 14.8% rise expected in 2025, per WARC Media. New commerce media platforms are launching, and social commerce is continuing to grow rapidly.Commerce media is becoming the infrastructure that underpins the entire digital advertising ecosystem, and offers brand building potential. Many retail and commerce media platforms now sell ads that allow advertisers to reach consumers across the purchase journey, from awareness all the way through to conversion.Advertisers will need to weigh up these opportunities carefully, supported by holistic measurement that allows them to show the impact of commerce on long-term brand and business metrics.New entrants may struggle to win spend from incumbents. Advertisers already admit to feeling overwhelmed by the number of options available in the commerce space and highlight a lack of standardisation across platforms as their biggest challenge with retailers. In the short-term, this may curtail the growth of new entrants as advertisers prioritise working with just a few large and established networks.Retail spending puts brand budgets at risk. Many advertisers appear to be divesting from traditional advertising channels to spend more on lower-funnel ads on retail media networks. Advertisers should protect traditional advertising budgets to avoid falling into a vicious cycle of weakening their brand, while raising the cost of driving performance on retail media properties.The Future of Media 2025 is based on data and insights from WARC, including WARC’s Marketer’s Toolkit global survey of 1000+ marketing executives, and external research. It is part of WARC’s Evolution of Marketing programme helping marketers address major industry shifts to drive effective marketing, and follows the recent publication of WARC’s The Voice of the Marketer 2025The Marketer’s Toolkit 2025 and The GEISTE report.WARC members can read the full report. Complementing The Future of Media 2025 and associated reports, are a series of podcasts.

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Nigeria’s Upstream Reform Program Captures 40% of Africa’s Final Investment Decision (FID) Activity After a Decade on the Margins

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A government three-year review documents how executive action under President Tinubu reversed a decade of upstream decline

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Nigeria has gone from capturing 4% of Africa’s upstream final investment decisions (FIDs) to commanding 40% in two years, according to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen. The $50 billion project pipeline now in development beyond 2026 points to sustained capital commitment at a scale not seen in the Nigerian upstream for at least a decade.

 

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria was among the continent’s weakest performers for upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second-largest endowment in Africa. Algeria captured 44% of African upstream FIDs during that period, Angola held 26%, while Nigeria trailed Mozambique, Ghana, Senegal and Namibia. In the third quarter of 2022, crude production briefly dropped below one million barrels per day, as years of underinvestment, pipeline vandalism and regulatory ambiguity compounded each other. However, reforms instituted by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu have dramatically turned this trend around. Through deliberate and coordinated steps, the government has reset the trajectory.

Addressing Fiscal Terms, Regulatory Scope and Contracting Speed

President Bola Tinubu’s administration moved simultaneously on fiscal terms and regulatory architecture. Policy directives in 2023 clarified the boundary of jurisdiction between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), resolving an ambiguity that had complicated project sanctioning. Presidential Directive 40 introduced targeted tax incentives, and a separate Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Production in 2024 was designed to draw international oil companies (IOCs) back into capital-intensive, long-cycle deepwater projects. The VAT Modification Order 2024 and Upstream Cost Efficiency Order 2025 addressed the cost structures that had rendered marginal projects uneconomic. NNPCL contracting timelines were compressed from 36 months to a maximum of six months.

Four Divestments Transferred Onshore Control to Indigenous Operators

In parallel, the administration deployed targeted security directives and accelerated ministerial consents for four IOC asset transfers. Renaissance acquired Shell’s onshore portfolio. Seplat Energy completed its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian upstream interests. Oando took over from Agip, and Chappal acquired Equinor’s local assets. The four transactions totaled approximately $4 billion. The transfer of onshore and shallow-water blocks to indigenous operators contributed directly to production recovery. Output rose by approximately 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2025 to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest onshore production level in 20 years.

When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds

Signed Projects Total $10 Billion, With a $50 Billion Pipeline Beyond

The reforms produced a concrete FID response from Shell and TotalEnergies. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) sanctioned the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024 and committed a further $2 billion to the HI Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project. TotalEnergies and NNPCL took a joint FID on the $550 million Ubeta gas field development in June 2024.

Together those three commitments account for more than $10 billion in signed investment after a decade of near-zero sanctioning activity. The pipeline beyond 2026 spans a further $50 billion across 11 projects including Bonga South West, Owowo, Usan and Erha. Nigeria approved 28 field development plans valued at $18.2 billion in 2025 alone, targeting an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves.

“When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Nigeria has done both, and the FID numbers are concrete proof.”

The Counterfactual Illustrates How Much Was at Stake

The presentation includes a no-reform projection that puts the gains in context. Without intervention, total crude and condensate production was on track to fall from 1.371 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 to 579,000 by 2030. Under the reform trajectory, output reached 1.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with a stated government target of 3 million barrels per day. Export gas utilization rose 39% over the same period, while domestic utilization grew by 7%.

The durability of these gains will be tested by two factors: whether the institutional architecture put in place under the Tinubu administration holds over the long term, and whether the deepwater commitments signed in 2024 and 2025 advance to execution on schedule. The project pipeline is large enough that partial delivery would still represent a generational shift in Nigeria’s upstream output profile.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Angola Strengthens Global Investment Drive Across Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources

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With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership

LONDON, United Kingdom, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –At a defining moment in Angola’s economic transformation, the Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG) (https://CMAGAfrica.com), together with the Government of Angola and the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Petroleum and Gas of the Republic of Angola (MIREMPET), will convene global investors, policymakers, and industry leaders in London for the Angola Oil, Gas & Mining Investment Conference on 14 May 2026.

 

More than a conference, this gathering represents a strategic international engagement at a time when Angola is actively reshaping its economic future and positioning itself as one of Africa’s most compelling destinations for long-term investment in natural resources, infrastructure, and industrial development.

With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership. The country’s leadership is sending a clear message to global markets: Angola is open for investment and ready to build transformational partnerships that support sustainable growth and economic diversification.

This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future

The event will be headlined by H.E. Diamantino Azevedo, Minister for Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas of Angola, whose leadership since 2017 has been central to advancing Angola’s mineral and hydrocarbons agenda. Under his stewardship, Angola has accelerated institutional reform, strengthened governance frameworks, promoted private sector participation, and prioritised sustainable resource development.

As global demand intensifies for critical minerals, energy security, and resilient supply chains, Angola is uniquely positioned to become a strategic partner to international investors and industrial economies. The country’s vast untapped mineral wealth, significant oil and gas reserves, expanding infrastructure ambitions, and commitment to economic diversification present a rare investment window for global stakeholders.

Speaking ahead of the event, Veronica Bolton Smith, CEO of the Critical Minerals Africa Group said:

“Angola stands at a pivotal point in its national development. The reforms taking place across the country’s extractive sectors are creating unprecedented opportunities for responsible international investment and strategic partnership. This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future as a globally competitive investment destination. We believe this moment represents one of the most important opportunities for international partners to engage with Angola’s leadership and participate in the country’s next chapter of economic transformation.”

The event is expected to attract a distinguished international audience, including sovereign representatives, institutional investors, mining and energy executives, infrastructure developers, development finance institutions, and strategic partners seeking direct engagement with Angola’s leadership.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG).

 

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The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group Successfully Concludes Private Sector Roadshow in Baku

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Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan

BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 7, 2026/APO Group/ –The Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB) affiliates (www.IsDB.org) – namely the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), and the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) – in cooperation with the Islamic Development Bank Group Business Forum (THIQAH), organized the “IsDB Group Private Sector Roadshow” in Baku, Azerbaijan, in close collaboration with the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Export and Investment Promotion Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan (AZPROMO).

 

The high-profile event which took place on Thursday, 7th May 2026, at Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy, came as part of ongoing preparations for the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings and Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026), scheduled to take place from 16 to 19 June 2026, under the high patronage of His Excellency President Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

 

Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan. It highlighted the Group’s ongoing support for private sector development and its efforts to stimulate promising investment and trade opportunities in the Azerbaijani market.

 

The event also served as a unique opportunity inviting the audience to participate actively in IsDB Group Annual Meetings and the Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026). The program included panel discussions and specialized workshops on ways to enhance economic partnerships and the role of IsDB Group’s institutions in supporting the needs of member countries. The spectra of services, solutions and financial tools were also presented, including lines and modes of Islamic financing, trade finance and trade development solutions, corporate private sector financing, as well as risk mitigation solutions plus investment insurance and export credit insurance services.

 

Keynote speakers, in their speeches, underlined strong commitment to deepening engagement with the private sector and fostering meaningful partnerships that drive sustainable economic growth in light of the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings in Baku, all to showcase integrated solutions especially in Islamic finance, trade, investment, and risk mitigation while working closely and collectively with private sector partners to unlock new opportunities, support innovation, and empower businesses contributing to inclusive and resilient development across IsDB Group member countries.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB Group).

 

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