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Make Domestic Resource Mobilization Work for Africa’s Structural Transformation (By Adamon Mukasa and Anthony Simpasa)

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African Development Bank

The implementation of the United Nations’ Agenda 2030 for sustainable development and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 hinges on Africa’s ability to mobilize sufficient and timely financial resources

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast, August 27, 2024/APO Group/ — 

By  Adamon Mukasa and Anthony Simpasa

The implementation of the United Nations’ Agenda 2030 for sustainable development (https://apo-opa.co/4g2kWSb) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063 (https://apo-opa.co/4767Ak0) hinges on Africa’s ability to mobilize sufficient and timely financial resources. The recently released African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2024 (https://apo-opa.co/3yWpFEs) report by the African Development Bank estimates that the continent needs to close, by 2030, an annual financing gap of US$402.2 billion to fast-track its structural transformation process. Scaling up domestic resource mobilization (DRM) will be key to achieving that objective. 

African governments have always recognised the central role of increased mobilization and effective use of domestic resources to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) and other national development objectives. Through the 2015 Addis Ababa Action Agenda (https://apo-opa.co/4cG67ly), African leaders reaffirmed their commitment to “further strengthening the mobilization and effective use of domestic resources”, underscored by the principle of national ownership established in the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (https://apo-opa.co/3WZXZ9v). African governments have thus stepped up their policy levers towards improvement of DRM and combatting tax evasion and avoidance. These initiatives include, for example, the work of the African Union Development Agency-New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AUDA-NEPAD) (https://apo-opa.co/3ARAhEU), the High-Level Panel on Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) (https://apo-opa.co/4cK2efo), the African Union Assembly Special Declaration on IFFs (https://apo-opa.co/4g1ixXN), the Africa Initiative of the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for tax purposes (https://apo-opa.co/4gfrvRJ), the African Tax Administration Forum (https://apo-opa.co/4dWXpA9), and the establishment of Medium-Term Revenue Strategies (MTRS) (https://apo-opa.co/3MjW4HY). These initiatives emphasize the need for mobilization of domestic resources at scale and addressing resource leakages. 

Scaling up resources to fast-track structural transformation in Africa will require addressing underlying challenges and constraints to domestic resource mobilization

Stocktaking of Africa’s DRM progress 
Africa has increasingly mobilized its domestic resources to finance its development priorities in sectors such as health and education, infrastructure development, industrialization, and agriculture. In absolute terms, Africa’s government revenues (tax and non-tax revenues, excluding grants) increased by almost 40 percent from about US$435 billion in 2015 to US$604 billion in 2022 and are projected to reach about US$626 billion in 2025. Tax revenues account for more than 75 percent of the continent’s total domestically generated revenues. However, in relative terms, the continent underperforms its peers. Data from the AEO 2024 indicate that Africa’s average general government revenue declined substantially from 23.5 percent of GDP in 2010 to 19.3 percent of GDP in 2021. This is due to a steady decline in tax revenues, over the same period, from 16.1 percent of GDP in 2010 to 14.2 percent of GDP in 2021. In particular, since 2015, Africa’s average tax revenue ratio relative to GDP has consistently been below the 15 percent minimum (https://apo-opa.co/3X4DYPi) required for a developing country to adequately finance its SDGs. Africa’s revenue ratio is well below the average for Latin America (23.9 percent) and less than half the average for Europe and Central Asia (31.7 percent). Africa’s average low tax revenue ratio mask significant heterogeneity among individual African countries. As shown in figure 2, the average tax-to-GDP ratio over 2015-2025 falls short of the 15 percent threshold in 34 countries, spread across all of Africa’s five regions, calling therefore for urgent actions to scale up DRM and align it with financing needs for structural transformation. 

Aligning DRM with financing needs for structural transformation 
According to findings in the AEO (2024), African countries need to increase their tax-to-GDP ratio by a median value of about 13.2 percentage points—bringing the current median ratio to 27.2 percent of GDP—to be able to close the estimated financing gap for structural transformation. This is under the assumption that additional mobilized tax revenues are efficiently deployed and allocated to financing structural transformation. While the estimated tax effort may be within reach of many African countries, it remains unattainable for others given their relative low potential tax-to-GDP ratio. Hence, out of the 39 African countries with data on tax capacity, the report found that in 18 countries (46.2 percent of them), the level of tax-to-GDP ratio required to mobilize resources for structural transformation exceeds the maximum amount of tax revenues that could be collected given socioeconomic and institutional factors (Figure 3). This means that even if those countries exhaust their current tax capacity, they may not be able to close their respective estimated financing gap by 2030. 

Scaling up resources to fast-track structural transformation in Africa will require addressing underlying challenges and constraints to domestic resource mobilization. These challenges  include inter alia: i) High levels of informality (about 86 percent of total jobs on the continent are informal) (https://apo-opa.co/3T4YKwQ); ii)  Weak tax administration capacities (https://apo-opa.co/4cKmfm3), leading to inefficient tax collection; iii) Complex tax law and rules, which reduce compliance rates; iv) Low domestic savings (prior to the pandemic, Africa had one of the lowest gross domestic savings rates in the world, at 13.6 percent of GDP)1; v)  Endemic corruption (https://apo-opa.co/4g2luaH) (Africa loses annually in IFFs about US$89 billion) (https://apo-opa.co/3MmfvzX); and vi) Inefficient and expensive tax collection systems. 

On the last point in particular, data suggest that between 2000 and 2021 African countries collected only 24 percent of the VAT revenues annually – the lowest rate in the world – that they could otherwise have collected with full compliance and without tax exemptions. The AEO (2024) report has therefore estimated that by just increasing the VAT efficiency ratio to the level currently achieved by high-performing developing countries in other regions—those with a VAT efficiency rate of at least 70 percent—African countries could raise their current median VAT revenues (as a share of GDP) by as much as 7.9 percentage points, equivalent to a median value of about US$1.9 billion. In aggregate terms, improving VAT efficiency ratio could translate into additional VAT revenues of US$171 billion (or 42.5 percent of Africa’s US$402.2 billion financing gap).    

There is a long way to go to make DRM work for Africa’s structural transformation. To move fast, policy priority should be given to improving the transparency of the tax system, widen the tax base, enhance enforcement, mitigate compliance risks, and ultimately stimulate voluntary compliance by strengthening the social contract via enhanced provision of public goods and services to address widespread implicit taxation and increase compliance; increasing non-tax revenues such as property income, royalties, fines, penalties, forfeits, and business permits; enhance the formalization of the informal economy and, digitalization of tax collection systems to curb corruption, thereby enhance revenue collection.  

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Development Bank Group (AfDB).

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2.5 Million Tonnes Per Annum (MTPA) in Gas Output Feasible for Namibia, Says the National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR)

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NAMCOR

NAMCOR projects over 2.5 million tons in annual gas production as Namibia accelerates its gas monetization strategy, infrastructure development and regional energy leadership

WINDHOEK, Namibia, April 26, 2025/APO Group/ –The National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia (NAMCOR) has revealed that the country could produce more than 2.5 million tons of natural gas per year, based on early-stage assessments of recent discoveries made since 2022.

Speaking during a panel discussion on gas monetization strategies at the Namibia International Energy Conference on April 24, Mtundeni Ndafyaalako, Executive of Upstream Development & Production at national oil company NAMCOR, outlined a dual-pronged approach adopted by the corporation.

The first pillar focuses on leveraging legislative frameworks to enable coordinated infrastructure development, fostering collaboration among operators. The second emphasizes expanding exploration activities to unlock further resources.

“We have launched a gas monetization strategy project to support both government and industry on how best to commercialize gas. From our appraisals, we now have a clearer picture of production potential and various applications,” said Ndafyaalako, noting that the strategy is designed to attract new players and investment by clarifying monetization pathways.

Manfriedt Muundjua, Deputy General Manager at BW Kudu, reinforced the importance of integrating four pillars of local content – training, skills transfer, local procurement and local ownership – into the broader gas development framework.

We have launched a gas monetization strategy project to support both government and industry on how best to commercialize gas

Muundjua shared that BW Kudu is placing Namibian interns in every technical role currently held by international staff, supporting long-term local capacity building. He also emphasized the urgent need for downstream investment and infrastructure development.

“We already have a downstream investment partner lined up to join us once production at Kudu begins,” he said.He added that drilling of additional wells is scheduled to begin in October, supporting NAMCOR’s emphasis on continued exploration to identify new reserves.

Paul Eardley-Taylor, Head of Oil & Gas Coverage for Southern Africa at Standard Bank, highlighted the need for a “shadow infrastructure” – potentially led by public-private partnerships – in southern Namibia to address energy shortages through gas utilization. He suggested that oil revenues should be strategically directed toward financing gas infrastructure and fostering local energy markets.

Eardley-Taylor also pointed to the broader regional opportunity, suggesting that Namibia could assume a role once held by South Africa as the region’s primary energy supplier, particularly as critical mineral projects are willing to pay a premium for stable power supply.

Meanwhile, Ian Thom, Research Director for Upstream at Wood Mackenzie, expressed confidence that Namibia could implement a comprehensive Gas Master Plan within the next nine months. With only 59% of the population currently connected to the electricity grid, Thom underscored the potential of gas to dramatically increase energy access across residential, commercial and industrial sectors.

“Namibia could generate more value by exporting electricity rather than raw gas, given the limited infrastructure for gas exports and the high costs associated with building it,” Thom said.

Looking ahead, the upcoming African Energy Week (AEW): Invest in African Energies conference – set to take place from September 29 to October 3, 2025, in Cape Town – will spotlight Namibia’s gas developments and broader African opportunities The event will feature panel discussions, project showcases, deal signings and high-level networking sessions that connect African energy projects with global investors.

AEW: Invest in African Energies is the platform of choice for project operators, financiers, technology providers and government, and has emerged as the official place to sign deals in African energy. Visit www.AECWeek.com for more information about this exciting event.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber

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Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) Fuel Investment, Expansion in Namibia’s Upstream Sector

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Namibia

At the Namibia International Energy Conference, industry leaders emphasized M&As as key drivers of upstream growth and investment in Namibia’s oil and gas sector

WINDHOEK, Namibia, April 26, 2025/APO Group/ –Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity continues to emerge as a critical engine for growth in Namibia’s upstream oil and gas sector, as emphasized during a high-level panel discussion at the Namibia International Energy Conference (NIEC) on Thursday. Industry leaders outlined how strategic M&A deals are not only reshaping the country’s energy landscape, but also playing a key role in unlocking capital and accelerating exploration.

Gil Holzman, CEO of Eco Atlantic Oil & Gas, highlighted how acquisitions have underpinned his company’s expansion in Namibia since its entry into the market in 2009, stating: “Most of our best blocks are the result of M&As. Our most recent acquisition was in 2021 when we bought Azinam, which gave us promising blocks in the Orange Basin.”

According to Holzman, these acquisitions have fortified Eco Atlantic’s asset portfolio while positioning Namibia as an increasingly attractive frontier for global exploration. He pointed to M&A transactions involving supermajors such as ExxonMobil, QatarEnergy, Chevron and TotalEnergies as instrumental in bringing in not just capital, but also the technical capabilities needed to advance exploration in Namibia’s offshore and onshore basins.

Discussing the company’s operational strategy, Holzman emphasized a phased approach anchored in collaboration: “We aim to secure promising prospects, de-risk them internally and then attract partners with the technical know-how and capital required to unlock new frontiers.”

We aim to secure promising prospects, de-risk them internally and then attract partners with the technical know-how and capital required to unlock new frontiers

Echoing this sentiment, Adam Rubin, General Counsel at ReconAfrica, emphasized that M&As remain a strategic avenue to catalyze value creation, drive innovation and meet the substantial capital demands of upstream development. “We have not yet produced onshore, but the oil is there. Be patient – we will find it and produce,” he said, reaffirming the company’s commitment to moving from exploration toward full-scale production in the Kavango Basin.

Robert Bose, CEO of Sintana Energy, added that M&A activity has played a central role in enabling Sintana to broaden its asset base and build relationships with complementary partners. “M&As have helped us connect with the right partners and diversify our portfolio,” he said. “Cost-effective investment remains a key motivator, and we are focused on disciplined growth.”

From a financial perspective, Liz Williamson, Head of Energy at Rand Merchant Bank, outlined the opportunities that arise when IOCs divest from mature or late-life assets. She noted that such moves often create openings for mid-cap firms with fresh capital and a focused approach to step in. “This trend is beneficial for African governments, as middle-tier companies are often better suited to fully commit to and invest in these projects,” she explained.

Williamson also underscored the importance of establishing clear, investor-friendly deal frameworks and local content policies that build investor confidence. “Not many African countries are currently securing significant foreign direct investment, and Namibia must maintain its appeal by offering clarity on local content laws,” she said.

As Namibia emerges as a key exploration hotspot on the continent, discussions around capital flows, deal-making and upstream expansion are set to continue at African Energy Week 2025: Invest in African Energies, taking place from September 29-October 3, 2025 in Cape Town. The event will unite industry leaders, investors and government representatives to advance dialogue, showcase project opportunities and drive strategic partnerships across Africa’s energy landscape. Namibia’s rising profile and recent exploration success will be a focal point, drawing increased attention from global stakeholders seeking entry into one of the continent’s most dynamic markets.

AEW: Invest in African Energies is the platform of choice for project operators, financiers, technology providers and government, and has emerged as the official place to sign deals in African energy. Visit www.AECWeek.com for more information about this exciting event.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber

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Capricornus 1-X Adds to String of Successes in Namibia’s Offshore Oil Boom

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The African Energy Chamber welcomes the Capricornus 1-X light oil discovery as a game-changing development for Namibia, solidifying the Orange Basin’s status as a world-class petroleum province and opening the door to transformative economic and energy opportunities

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, April 25, 2025/APO Group/ –The African Energy Chamber (AEC) (https://EnergyChamber.org) strongly endorses the successful light oil discovery at the Capricornus 1-X exploration well in Namibia’s offshore Block 2914A – announced on April 24 – calling it a pivotal moment in the country’s energy evolution. The discovery solidifies the Orange Basin’s status as a major petroleum province and strengthens Namibia’s potential as a leading energy producer.

Led by operator Rhino Resources alongside partners Azule Energy, national oil company NAMCOR and Korres Investments, the Capricornus 1-X well encountered 38 meters of high-quality net pay with strong petrophysical characteristics, no water contact and flowed in excess of 11,000 barrels of oil per day during testing. These world-class results confirm the presence of a commercially viable light oil system and further elevate Namibia’s status as a frontier destination of choice for upstream exploration.

The Capricornus 1-X discovery is a pivotal moment for Namibia, reinforcing the Orange Basin’s status as a leading global exploration hub

The AEC commends the PEL85 joint venture partners on delivering one of the most significant discoveries in Namibia to date, reinforcing the industry’s confidence in the Orange Basin and supporting the Chamber’s long-standing position that Namibia’s geology holds exceptional promise. With a 37° API light oil quality, low CO₂ content and no hydrogen sulphide, the Capricornus 1-X find mirrors key features of the highly anticipated Venus and Graff discoveries nearby.

The latest discovery is set to catalyze further investment in Namibia’s energy ecosystem, from seismic activity and appraisal drilling to infrastructure development and regional service capacity building. The AEC believes the positive results will trigger accelerated project timelines, fast-track appraisal and development plans and draw significant attention from global energy companies, financiers and technology providers.

The Capricornus 1-X success demonstrates the powerful results that can be achieved when African institutions like NAMCOR partner with ambitious operators and experienced international players. It also underscores the strength of Namibia’s investment environment – marked by a stable regulatory framework, competitive licensing terms and strong governance – factors the AEC has long championed as critical to unlocking Africa’s energy potential. This milestone affirms the value of long-term vision, exploration persistence and a shared commitment to generating broad-based prosperity from natural resources.

“The Capricornus 1-X discovery is a pivotal moment for Namibia, reinforcing the Orange Basin’s status as a leading global exploration hub. This breakthrough boosts investor confidence and paves the way for rapid development. We commend the joint venture partners for their leadership and execution, and are confident that the relevant parties will work quickly to maximize the value of these resources. Namibia is poised to lead Africa’s energy future, with this discovery marking just the beginning,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.

Looking ahead, the Chamber encourages all stakeholders – industry, investors, policymakers and the global community – to seize the moment. Namibia’s upstream is rising, and Capricornus 1-X is proof that bold exploration strategies in Africa continue to yield tangible results. This is the time to double down on investment, support new entrants and ensure that African oil and gas continues to play a critical role in meeting global demand, funding local development and securing the continent’s energy future.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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