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Global advertising spend to top $1trn for first time this year

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2 years ago

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WARC forecast

Projected 10.5% rise in global spend this year represents a 2.3 percentage point (pp) upgrade to WARC forecast, reflecting the uptake of AI-enabled media tools

North America to grow 8.6% this year to $348bn, APAC market worth $272bn but growth cools to just 2.0%, Europe forecast to rise 5.0% to $165bn, Latin America +6.2% to $32.1bn, Middle East largely unaffected by looming threat of regional conflict +4.2% to $12.6bn

US political spend set to reach $15.8bn this year; $3.6bn spent across social platforms with growth rapidly increasing since change of Democratic candidate

WARC Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 – A Decade of Consolidation

22 August 2024 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is on course to grow 10.5% this year to a total of $1.07trn – the best performance in six years if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded.

Ad spend growth is also anticipated next year (+7.2%) and in 2026 (+7.0%), culminating in a global ad market worth $1.23trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade, and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014. Just three companies – Meta, Amazon and Alphabet – account for more than 70% of this incremental spend. This trifecta is expected to attract 43.6% of all advertising spend this year, rising to a share over 46% by 2026.

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets. New for this edition, WARC is now leveraging an advanced neural network machine learning model which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points spanning macroeconomic data, media owner revenue, marketing expenses from the world’s largest advertisers, media consumption trends and media cost inflation. It is believed to be one of the most comprehensive advertising market models available to the industry today.

The new projections show that ‘pureplay’ (i.e. online only) internet companies are set to record a 14.0% rise in advertising revenue this year, reaching a total of $735.7bn. In total, almost nine in every ten (88.5%) incremental dollars spent on advertising this year will go to online-only businesses, with half (52.9%) being paid to Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Taken together, pureplay platforms are set to account for over 70% of all advertising spend worldwide next year.

Retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%) and search (+12.1%) are set to lead digital growth in 2024, with these three sectors alone accounting for over 85% of online spend and almost three in every five (58.7%) incremental dollars spent on advertising worldwide this year. All are benefiting from the increased adoption of AI-driven ad services and growing appreciation of first party data.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research says: “The global ad market has doubled in size over the last decade, with advertising investment growing almost three times faster than economic output since 2014. Three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – have been the largest beneficiaries from this period of expansion, attracting seven in ten incremental ad dollars over the last ten years.

“With retail media expected to lead ad spend growth over the coming years, and with new, diverse players emerging in ad selling – from Uber to Chase – we are once again seeing the value of first party data in targeting the right person with the right message at the right time. Such data, combined with new AI enhancements, will constitute the fabric of the advertising industry for the next decade and beyond.”

Key findings outlined in WARC’s Global Ad Spend Outlook 2024/25 are:

MEDIA TRENDS: Global ad spend is forecast to rise 10.5% this year to a total of $1.07trn, and then 7.2% in 2025 and 7.0% in 2026; social, retail media and CTV to lead growth

At $241.8bn in 2024, social media is the largest single advertising channel measured in WARC’s study, having overtaken search (excl. retail media) for the first time last year. It accounts for 22.6% of all global ad spend this year and is forecast to rise to a share of 23.6% by the end of 2026.

Within social, Meta is the largest individual player, commanding 62.6% of the market this year. Its share is being eroded however, most notably by Douyin and TikTok owner Bytedance, which now draws a fifth (20.1%) of all social spend, up from a share of just 9.3% five years ago. TikTok is on course to account for over half of its parent-company’s advertising revenue for the first time next year with estimated ad billings over $28bn, though uncertainty remains around the platform’s future in the US – its largest market by far with 170m monthly active users.

The main social platforms have reported a fillip from new, AI-enabled services during the first half of 2024, a trend that is set to underpin the advertising industry at large over the coming years. Over half of all AI-enabled spend – defined as involving some form of recommendation algorithm, natural language processing or search optimisation – ​today occurs in the social media sector.

Search advertising (excluding retail media) accounts for 21.8% of global advertising spend, at a forecast total of $223.8bn this year. Its share has consistently grown since WARC began monitoring the sector in 2013, though it is set to plateau in 2026 as more purchase journeys begin in retail media environments and social commerce begins to realise its potential outside of Asia. Another potential headwind may be the rise of AI-driven search, and uncertainty around what the ad experience will look like for consumers more familiar with text-based search experiences.

Google accounts for more than four-fifths (84.0%) of the global search market, with its paid search revenue set to top $200bn for the first time next year. Google’s share rises to over 90% if China is excluded, a position of dominance which this month led a US judge to rule the company in breach of antitrust laws.

Retail media is expected to account for 14.3% of global ad spend this year – a total of $152.6bn – which is double the share recorded in 2019 before the pandemic contributed to an exceptional growth spurt. Indeed, retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing channel over at least the next three years.

Amazon is the dominant global player, with anticipated ad revenue (excluding Twitch and Prime Video) of $55.9bn equivalent to more than a third (36.6%) of all retail media spend and over two-thirds excluding China this year. While competition is heating up, such billings eclipse the near $4bn Walmart is due to net in 2024 and the $1bn ad business Uber is building, while Amazon is also due to have surpassed Alibaba by ad revenue for the first time this year.

CTV is on course to be worth $35.3bn to advertisers this year, roughly a quarter of the size of the linear TV market. Growth is rapid; CTV spend is expected to rise 19.6% and is set to account for two-thirds of all growth in the video (linear + CTV) market this year, and all growth in 2025. By 2026, CTV is projected to account for almost a quarter (23.9%) of all video ad spend, at $46.3bn.

Netflix is the largest streaming provider globally, with 277.6m subscribers worldwide in Q2 2024. However, its global advertising business is unlikely to grow too far beyond $1bn this year. YouTube’s ad income – which we do not yet classify as CTV – is expected to rise 14.3% to $36.0bn this year. Further, YouTube’s ad revenue is set to top $45bn globally by 2026, almost as much as the entirety of the global CTV industry at that time.

Legacy media, encompassing print publishing, broadcast radio, linear TV, cinema and out of home (OOH), now collectively account for a quarter (25.3%) of total advertising spend, having recorded a dip in share in each of the last 15 years.

Advertising spend on legacy media is expected to total $270.5bn this year, representing a 1.5% rise from 2023. Much of this growth can be attributed to US political spending; with this removed legacy media are, collectively, set to record a 0.5% decline in advertiser investment in 2024.

Linear TV spend is expected to grow by 1.9% this year, its best performance since 2014 if the post-Covid recovery year of 2021 (+12.7%) were excluded. The market is flat (+0.1%), however, excluding US political spend. Out of home (+7.2%) and cinema (+6.1%) will see some growth this year, though radio (-2.3%) is expected to record its third consecutive year of decline. Newsbrands (-3.3%) and magazine brands (-3.4%) are also due to see losses across print and online editions.

PRODUCT SECTOR TRENDS: Technology & Electronics (+13.2%), Alcoholic Drinks (+12.2%) and Clothing & Accessories (+11.1%) the fastest-growing consumer sectors next year. US political spend is expected to reach $15.8bn this year; over a fifth spent on social.

Advertising spend during the 2024 US presidential election is on course to top $15bn for the first time, with an expected total of $15.8bn up by over 40% on the previous cycle in 2020. Spend had been lagging the 2020 total earlier this year, but the surprise decision to change the Democratic candidate has led to an influx in spending in order to reposition the new ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. This shift is perhaps most pronounced online: political spending on social media is tracking 27.4% higher in Q3 2024 versus Q2 2024, with social spending by both main parties on course to reach $3.6bn this year.

Retail – the largest of the 19 categories monitored by WARC – is anticipated to record a 2.5% dip in global spend this year. Our definition of this sector is broad however, ranging from quick service retail (QSR) to grocery to department stores to online retailers, such as Temu. The latter is expected to continue investing heavily in advertising, particularly in Europe this year, but it is an exception – the longer tail of retailers are facing business pressures from soft consumer demand.

Technology & Electronics – the third-largest product sector monitored by WARC – is expected to post the fastest growth this year, with incremental spend of $17.0bn worldwide. The sector had recorded declines in advertising spend in both 2022 and 2023, as central banks raised interest rates sharply in an attempt to stymie inflation, exposing over-leveraged tech startups in particular.

Technology & Electronics (+13.2%), Alcoholic Drinks (+12.2%) and Clothing & Accessories (+11.1%) are forecast to lead ad spend growth among consumer-facing products in 2025, though Business & Industrial, the second-largest category, is expected to be the fastest-growing category overall next year (+18.2%), as budgets unlock during a period of comparatively favourable economic and trading conditions.

The Nicotine category is also growing rapidly, albeit from a low base; it is the smallest of the 19 product categories monitored by WARC at $13.0bn in 2024. Spend is set to grow 56% over the three years to 2026 – reaching a total of $17.2bn – driven almost entirely by vape products which skew heavily towards online advertising.

REGIONAL TRENDS: North America to grow 8.6% this year to $348bn, APAC growth cools to just 2.0% owing to stronger dollar, Europe is forecast to rise 5.0% to $164.9bn, while Middle East ad markets are largely unaffected by looming threat of regional conflict

North America is on track to be the fastest-growing region this year – inflated by the US presidential elections – with ad spend rising 8.6% to a total of $347.5bn. US ad spend is expected to grow 8.9% this year (+4.0% excluding political spend, more than double the 1.4% growth rate recorded in 2023) to a total of $330.8bn. A further rise, of 3.6%, is forecast next year, by when the US ad market should be worth over $342bn. The Canadian ad market is due to grow 7.5% to CAD23.3bn ($16.8bn) this year.

Latin America (+6.2% to $32.1bn in 2024) then follows, with its largest market, Brazil, forecast to record local currency growth of 9.6% this year to a total of BRL85.7bn ($14.8bn) – an acceleration from the 7.5% rise recorded last year. Our forecasts suggest that online advertising will account for over half (50.4%) of the Brazilian ad market for the first time this year.

APAC’s (+2.0% to $272.0bn this year) largest market – China – is projected to see ad market growth of 6.4% this year to RMB1.32trn ($181.2bn), an easing from the 9.3% rise recorded in 2023 as consumer demand remains soft and economic expansion lags stubbornly behind the target. Pureplay internet will account for over 86% of the Chinese ad market in 2024, though social media (+10.5%) and retail media (+8.2%) will expand at a slower rate this year than last.

When measured in local currency – so as to exclude the distorting effect of exchange rate fluctuations – we see that India will be the fastest growing key market this year, with advertiser spend rising 11.9% to INR1.08trn ($12.8bn).

Japan – the fourth-largest ad market in the world – is forecast to grow by 5.2% this year to JPY5.83trn ($36.9bn), though this equates to a 6.3% decline when measured in US dollars due to the Yen falling to a decade-long low. Australia’s ad market is expanding by 2.0%, a modest but welcome change of fortunes following flat (+0.3%) growth in 2023, while Indonesia is expected to achieve 7.8% growth this year.

Advertising spend across Europe is forecast to rise 5.0% this year to $164.9bn. The UK, the largest European market by spend, is expected to post an 8.0% rise to £38.5bn ($47.5bn) in 2024 per market data from the AA/WARC Expenditure Report. On the European mainland, France (+8.0%), Italy (+5.4%) and Germany (+4.0%) are all expected to see healthy gains this year, with the former in particular benefiting from increased advertising activity around the Paris Olympics and Paralympics in the third quarter.

Brand spend in the Middle East and Africa is currently on course to rise by 4.2% to $12.6bn this year, though fortunes are mixed. African spend is expected to be flat (+0.2%), following a 15.7% decline in 2023 and 1.4% dip in 2022. South Africa, the region’s largest market, is expected to see its ad market grow 6.0% this year but this translates to a 1.1% increase when measured in dollars owing to a weak Rand by historical measures. Ad spend in the Middle East is set to rise 8.1% this year but that is subject to change should conflict spread beyond Gaza to the wider region.

A complimentary article by WARC’s James McDonald, author of the report, is available to read here. WARC subscribers can read the article and access additional data here.

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U.S.-Africa Energy & Minerals Forum Expands to Critical Minerals and Supply Chain Security

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February 27, 2026

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Africa

This year’s U.S.-Africa Energy & Minerals Forum in Houston signals a strategic shift toward integrated energy and critical minerals investment, strengthening U.S. partnerships across Africa’s resource and industrial value chains

HOUSTON, United States of America, February 26, 2026/APO Group/ –The U.S.-Africa Energy & Minerals Forum (USAEMF) has relaunched with a dedicated focus on critical minerals, marking an important evolution in its role as a platform for U.S.-Africa commercial engagement. Building on its foundation in energy, power and industrial projects, the forum’s expanded scope positions it at the center of investment conversations shaping the future energy economy.

 

Scheduled for July 21–22, 2026, in Houston, Texas, USAEMF comes at a time of surging global demand for copper, cobalt, lithium, manganese and rare earth elements, driven by electrification, battery storage, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. Africa is increasingly critical to securing these materials, highlighting how energy and minerals are now interconnected pillars of industrial growth, geopolitical stability and decarbonization.

The forum’s minerals mandate deepens engagement with African producers – particularly the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), home to some of the world’s largest copper and cobalt reserves. Momentum is building through the U.S.–DRC strategic minerals framework and the U.S.-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, a major investment platform supported by the DFC and private partners. The consortium is pursuing a 40% stake in the Mutanda and Kamoto copper-cobalt operations in a $9 billion transaction, securing long-term supply for allied markets while reinforcing cooperation on infrastructure, security and supply-chain governance.

Placing critical minerals at the center while maintaining strong hydrocarbons engagement strengthens U.S.-Africa commercial ties

U.S. financing is also expanding across the region, with the DFC managing a continental portfolio exceeding $13 billion to support mining, processing and transport infrastructure for critical mineral supply chains. Recent commitments include rare earth, graphite and potash projects in Malawi, Mozambique and Gabon; broader investments in Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia and South Africa; and $553 million linked to the development of the Lobito Corridor. The DFC is also a major backer of TechMet, a U.S.-supported investment firm valued at over $1 billion, which is raising up to $200 million to expand copper, cobalt, lithium and rare earth assets and pursue new opportunities across the DRC and Zambia. Together, these initiatives underscore Washington’s push to diversify battery-mineral supply while positioning Africa as a long-term partner in clean energy and industrial value chains.

Houston’s role as host city reflects the alignment between American industrial capacity and African resource development. Long established as a global energy hub, the city is expanding into energy transition technologies, advanced materials, carbon management and industrial innovation. By convening African governments with U.S. private equity, development finance institutions, exporters, insurers and technical service providers, the forum creates a commercial platform capable of converting mineral potential into bankable projects.

“The evolution from USAEF to USAEMF reflects a broader shift toward integrated energy and mineral development,” states Nadine Levin, Portfolio Director at Energy Capital & Power, forum organizers. “Placing critical minerals at the center while maintaining strong hydrocarbons engagement strengthens U.S.-Africa commercial ties and advances projects that deliver long-term shared value.”

While critical minerals define the forum’s strategic expansion, the U.S.’ longstanding role in Africa’s energy sector remains central to the platform’s value proposition. American energy companies continue to advance exploration and development across key upstream markets, support gas monetization in the Gulf of Guinea and revitalize mature production in North Africa. U.S. export credit and development finance are also helping unlock large-scale LNG capacity in Mozambique while supporting optimization and expansion across existing gas infrastructure in West Africa – demonstrating how American capital, engineering expertise and risk-mitigation tools convert resource potential into delivered energy systems.

USAEMF is the leading platform connecting U.S. capital and technical expertise with Africa’s energy and minerals sectors. For more information or to participate at the upcoming forum, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Pesalink and Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) Unlock Cross-Border Payments in Local Currencies in Kenya

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February 27, 2026

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Pesalink

The Pesalink–PAPSS partnership will reduce costs, speed up settlements, and help individuals, SMEs and businesses send money more efficiently across borders

NAIROBI, Kenya, February 26, 2026/APO Group/ —

  • Instant 24/7 bank-to-bank transfers across African borders in local currencies.
  • Simpler cross-border payments for individuals, businesses, and SMEs.
  • 80 plus Pesalink network participants now linked to 160 plus PAPSS participating banks.

 

Pesalink, Kenya’s de facto instant payment network, has partnered with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) to ease cross-border payment and speed up regional financial integration.

 

The partnership enables instant 24/7 cross-border payments from PAPSS participants into banks and mobile money operators within the Pesalink network in Kenya, all settled in local currencies. This reduces complex correspondent banking requirements and reliance on foreign reserve currencies.

 

Kenyan banks will now be able to offer faster, cheaper cross-border payments

PAPSS, an initiative of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) in collaboration with the African Union and the AfCFTA Secretariat, enables cross-border payments between African countries. Pesalink is now a Technical Connectivity Provider. It means that 80 plus Kenyan bank, fintech, SACCO and telco participants on the Pesalink network will be connected to 160 plus commercial banks and fintechs on the PAPSS platform.

 

Cross-border payments remain expensive and slow for many African businesses. The 2023 (http://apo-opa.co/4baDSh7) World Bank Remittance Prices report indicates that sending money across African borders incurs on average 7-8% of the total value sent (above the global average of 6–7%). Settlement can also take three to seven business days.

 

The Pesalink–PAPSS partnership will reduce costs, speed up settlements, and help individuals, SMEs and businesses send money more efficiently across borders.

 

Speaking during the partnership signing held at Pesalink offices in Nairobi, PAPSS CEO Mike Ogbalu III said, “For PAPSS to deliver true impact, collaboration with national and private switches like Pesalink is essential. Pesalink is the first switch we’ve piloted for transaction termination in Kenya, and we are already seeing greater adoption by opening more channels for seamless, local-currency cross-border payments across Africa.”

 

Pesalink CEO, Gituku Kirika, said “Kenyan banks will now be able to offer faster, cheaper cross-border payments. They will be helping their customers grow more regional trading relationships and thrive in a more integrated digital economy.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

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Africa Trade Conference Returns to Cape Town with Esteemed Speakers Driving Africa’s Trade Agenda

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February 27, 2026

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Africa

Second edition convenes global policymakers, business leaders, and innovators to accelerate Africa’s integration into global trade

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, February 26, 2026/APO Group/ –Access Bank Plc (www.AccessBankPLC.com) is proud to announce the distinguished line-up of speakers for the second edition of the Africa Trade Conference (ATC 2026), scheduled to take place on March 11, 2026, at the Cape Town International Convention Centre, Cape Town, South Africa. Building on the strong foundation of its inaugural edition, ATC 2026 will convene an exceptional assembly of global and African leaders, policymakers, investors, and business executives committed to shaping the future of trade on the continent.

The Africa Trade Conference has rapidly emerged as a premier platform for advancing dialogue and action around Africa’s evolving role in global commerce. The 2026 edition will feature influential voices from across finance, government, development institutions, and the private sector, who will share insights on unlocking trade opportunities, strengthening intra-African commerce, enabling business expansion, and positioning African enterprises for global competitiveness.

The confirmed speakers represent a powerful cross-section of leaders driving Africa’s economic transformation.

Building on the momentum of its maiden edition, which convened senior decision-makers from 28 countries, the 2026 conference with the theme “Turning Vision into Velocity: Building Africa’s Trade Ecosystem for Real-World Impact”, will have the keynote address delivered by Kennedy Mbekeani, Director General, Southern Africa Region, African Development Bank (AfDB), alongside Kwabena Ayirebi, Managing Director, Banking Operations at the African Export-Import Bank. Their joint keynote will address the evolving financing landscape for African trade and the strategic pathways for unlocking continental prosperity.

The welcome address will be delivered by Roosevelt Ogbonna, CEO/GMD, Access Bank Plc, who will set the tone for discussions centered on trade transformation, financial inclusion, and regional competitiveness, while Tolu Oyekan, Managing Director & Partner at Boston Consulting Group, will deliver insights on “Africa Trade Outlook 2026”, examining emerging macroeconomic trends, supply chain shifts, and growth opportunities across key sectors.  The CEO of Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, Mike Ogbalu, will be engaging the conference participants on the topic, “Building a Connected Africa Through Trade, Payments & Technology”, focusing on how payment interoperability and digital infrastructure can accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agenda.

The calibre of speakers confirmed for this year’s conference underscores the urgency and opportunity before us

The conference will also host a High-Level Ministerial Panel that features Elizabeth Ofosu-Adjare, the Minister for Trade, Agribusiness & Industry, Ghana; Tiroeaone Ntsima, Minister of Trade and Entrepreneurship, Botswana; Mr. Florian Witt, Divisional Head, International & Corporate Banking Oddo-BHF, Ms. Nathalie Louat – Global Director, International Finance Corporation (IFC), Dr Isaiah Rathumba – Head of Department, Limpopo Economic Development, Environment and Tourism and Mr. Alfred Idialu – Chief Rep Officer, Deutsche Bank among other policymakers shaping trade policy across the continent.

Commenting on the announcement, Roosevelt Ogbonna, Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Access Bank Plc, said:
“The Africa Trade Conference reflects our unwavering commitment to advancing Africa’s economic transformation by creating a platform that brings together the leaders, institutions, and ideas shaping the future of trade. The calibre of speakers confirmed for this year’s conference underscores the urgency and opportunity before us. Africa is not only participating in global trade, it is helping to redefine it. Through this convening, we aim to catalyse partnerships, unlock new opportunities for businesses, and accelerate Africa’s integration into global value chains.”

“At Access Bank, we see ourselves not just as financiers, but as connectors of markets, ideas, and opportunities. Our role is to help African businesses move from ambition to impact, from local relevance to global competitiveness.”

With operations in 24 countries globally, including 16 across Africa, Access Bank’s expansive footprint places it in a unique position to facilitate cross-border trade, unlock regional value chains, and simplify the complexities of doing business across markets.

“Our presence across Africa and key global corridors gives us a front-row seat to the realities of trade. It also gives us the responsibility to design solutions that are inclusive, scalable, and future facing. ATC 2026 is part of that commitment, Ogbonna added.

ATC 2026 is expected to catalyze partnerships, enable policy dialogue, and provide actionable strategies for businesses operating within and beyond the continent.

The Access Bank Chief puts it thus, “Africa will not be a spectator in the remaking of global trade. We will be one of its architects. ATC 2026 is where those blueprints will be drawn.”

For more information and registration, please visit https://apo-opa.co/4sdXWF7

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Access Bank PLC.

 

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