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Africa’s Upstream Future: Momentum Builds, but Investment Discipline Remains a Hurdle (By NJ Ayuk)

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African Energy Chamber

To translate discoveries into development, Africa must confront the operational and investment challenges that stand in the way

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 5, 2026/APO Group/ —By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (https://EnergyChamber.org).

Two breakthrough offshore discoveries in Namibia in 2022 — one by Shell and one by TotalEnergies — marked an important milestone for the country’s future energy landscape and for Africa’s broader upstream ambitions.

The excitement generated by high-impact discoveries creates a ripple effect that benefits the entire continent. I’m convinced that the ongoing interest we’re seeing today in African exploration and production (E&P) stems in part from the major discoveries in Namibia, alongside recent successes in Côte d’Ivoire, Angola, and Egypt.

When you factor in advances in E&P technology, the promise of newly emerging basins, and the continued strength of Africa’s established producing regions, there are genuine reasons to feel confident about the future of African oil and gas.

That sentiment is reflected in the African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, “The State of African Energy,” which projects renewed momentum in the continent’s upstream market during the next several years. According to the report, global E&P capital expenditure (capex) is forecast to reach approximately USD504 billion by 2026, with Africa contributing about USD41 billion.

Africa’s hydrocarbon production is expected to remain stable at roughly 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) through 2026, and new projects are on track to increase output toward 13.6 million boe/d by 2030.

Yes, the report acknowledges that optimism is being tempered by caution. Keen to protect their balance sheets, investors are scrutinizing opportunities closely. But overall, the potential for sustained upstream expansion is truly promising for African states with petroleum reserves. The key will be doing as much as possible to attract the capital needed to pursue the next wave of discoveries.

Frontier and Emerging Basins Signal Strong New Potential

As investors weigh their options, the most compelling signs of progress are coming from Africa’s frontier and emerging basins.

In Namibia’s Orange Sub-Basin, where more than 6 billion boe have been discovered in less than four years, operators are preparing the next wave of high-impact wells. Côte d’Ivoire, meanwhile, is seeing a surge of activity around its recent deepwater finds.

Egypt, which already has long history as a producing state, is experiencing fresh momentum in underexplored offshore acreage. Earlier this year, drilling in the Herodotus Basin confirmed gas at the Nefertari-1 well.

Even in Libya, where hydrocarbons have been produced for decades, frontier acreage remains. BP and Eni aim to spud the Matsola-1 ultra-deepwater gas prospect later this year. If it delivers, the well could pave the way for deeper Sirte Basin exploration and reduce geological risk across the broader Gulf of Sirte.

“The continent continues to offer up new frontiers, all of which may draw exploration capital,” our Outlook report notes. “Places to keep an eye on are the ultra-deepwater portion of the Congo Fan in Angola, the Gabon–Douala Deep Sea Basin offshore São Tomé and Príncipe, the Namibe Basin in Namibia and Angola, the Herodotus Basin offshore Egypt and the offshore portion of the Sirte Basin.

“Others that have already played host to exploration cycles may still present significant opportunities in a similar fashion to the Côte d’Ivoire–Tano Basin. One example is the MSGBC Basin, where over 9.5 Bboe was discovered between 2014 and 2019, but which is still viewed as immature in terms of exploration.”

Still, prospects alone are not enough. To translate discoveries into development, Africa must confront the operational and investment challenges that stand in the way.

Data, Imaging, and a New Era of African Prospecting

Companies are channeling a significant share of their cash flow into dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction instead of chasing growth at any cost

As encouraging as the upstream outlook is, Africa’s geology remains complex, and that complexity can shape how and where companies invest. In parts of West Africa, for example, thick layers of salt can distort seismic signals and make it difficult to identify potential reservoirs with confidence. And in the far south, strong offshore currents can interfere with seismic acquisition itself, degrading data quality and forcing operators to invest in more advanced imaging and noise-reduction technologies.

But as our Outlook report notes, technology is starting to change these dynamics. “Recent advancements in seismic acquisition, processing technologies, and drilling capabilities have enabled exploration efforts over the past decade to target more intricate prospects at greater depths in Africa as elsewhere,” it states.

These advances have been helping oil and gas companies de-risk prospects once considered too complex or too costly to pursue.

Emmanuelle Garinet, TotalEnergies’ vice president for exploration in Africa, has pointed to Namibia as a prime example of how high-resolution seismic imaging and advanced subsurface modeling can reshape exploration strategies. She noted that the company’s decision to drill the Venus prospect — which lies within the Namibian portion of the Orange Sub-Basin — was possible because the technical data provided enough confidence to reduce uncertainty ahead of drilling. The results validated that choice: the 2022 Venus-1 discovery, estimated at 1.5 to 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil, stands as the largest ever made in sub-Saharan Africa. Its scale has reshaped expectations for what may still be unlocked across the Orange Sub-Basin.

The trend is also visible offshore Angola, where better subsurface imaging and advanced drilling systems are opening deepwater and ultra-deepwater opportunities in heavily salt-influenced geology. Azule Energy aims to drill the Kianda prospect in late 2025. If the ultra-deepwater test succeeds, it could pave the way for exploration across a vast area — more than 30,000 square kilometers — previously viewed as high risk.

The Capital Challenge: Competing for Global Investment

But geological complexity isn’t the only factor shaping investment decisions. Political and security challenges persist in several countries — among them Nigeria, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo — and can materially affect both operations and capital flows. Add to that the lack of clarity around monetization and industrialization pathways, and it becomes clear why some investors remain cautious.

The Outlook report notes that upstream capital spending in Africa has risen consistently over the past three years as the sector recovers from the pandemic-related lows of 2020. Even so, worldwide investment growth has not kept pace with the strong cash flows generated by upstream operations. Analysts from firms like Wood Mackenzie and Deloitte all describe the same pattern: Companies are channeling a significant share of their cash flow into dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction instead of chasing growth at any cost.

In short, Africa is competing for capital at a time when global investors are more disciplined than ever.

In this environment, African states cannot simply assume that interest in our geology will translate into final investment decisions. We must move quickly to capitalize on today’s E&P appetite by reducing above-ground risks, providing clear monetization and industrialization pathways, and building stable, predictable frameworks that give investors the confidence to commit for the long term.

The window of opportunity is open, but it will not stay open forever.

“The State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report” is available for download. Visit https://apo-opa.co/4aKVLn1 to request your copy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Business

Africa Finance Corporation Appoints Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Yemi Cardoso as Chairman of the Board

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Mr Cardoso’s appointment comes as AFC continues to expand its role in financing and developing strategic infrastructure assets that address Africa’s infrastructure gap, accelerate industrialisation and strengthen regional integration

LAGOS, Nigeria, October 14, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) (www.AfricaFC.org), the continent’s leading infrastructure solutions provider, announces the appointment of Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as Chairman of its Board of Directors. He succeeds the immediate-past Chair, Ireti Samuel-Ogbu, who served the Corporation meritoriously during her tenure and continues to serve as a board member.

 




 
 

Mr Cardoso brings extensive experience spanning international banking, investment management, economic policy and public sector leadership. Since assuming office as Governor of the CBN in September 2023, he has led a far-reaching programme of monetary, financial-sector, and institutional reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen policy credibility, and rebuild investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

Under his leadership, the CBN has implemented significant reforms to Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, addressed longstanding foreign exchange obligations, strengthened monetary policy transmission, and enhanced institutional governance and transparency. The Bank has also concluded a recapitalisation programme for the banking sector, aimed at strengthening the resilience and capacity of Nigeria’s financial system to support sustainable economic growth.

I look forward to working with the Board, management and member states to advance The Africa We Build 2050

Prior to his appointment as Governor, Mr Cardoso built a distinguished career in international banking and public service, including a 12-year tenure as Chairman of Citibank Nigeria and service as Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget in Lagos State. In the latter role, he contributed to economic planning and fiscal management in one of Africa’s largest economies. He holds a degree from Aston University in the United Kingdom and a master’s in public administration from Harvard Kennedy School, where he also served on the Alumni Board.

Mr Cardoso’s appointment comes as AFC continues to expand its role in financing and developing strategic infrastructure assets that address Africa’s infrastructure gap, accelerate industrialisation and strengthen regional integration. His experience in financial sector reform, institutional governance and capital markets will provide valuable perspective on the Corporation’s strategic direction as it mobilises investment to unlock Africa’s economic potential.

Samaila Zubairu, President & CEO of AFC, said: “We are delighted to welcome Mr Cardoso as our Board Chairman. He shares our conviction that Africa’s lasting stability depends on its productive capacity. His leadership will strengthen AFC as we advance The Africa We Build 2050, mobilising African capital to build the infrastructure and industries that create jobs, prosperity and dignity for our people. We also sincerely thank Mrs Samuel-Ogbu for her dedication and contribution to AFC’s board during her tenure.”

Mr. Cardoso commented on his appointment, saying: “A more productive Africa is a more stable Africa. AFC has the credibility and track record to mobilise capital and build the infrastructure and industries that drive transformation. I look forward to working with the Board, management and member states to advance The Africa We Build 2050. Our measure of success must be the productive capacity we create, the industries we enable and the jobs we support.”

AFC continues to advance transformational infrastructure and industrial investments across Africa, with recent milestones including achieving financial close on the US$753 million Lobito Corridor Railway Project in Angola, to support the rehabilitation, upgrade, and long-term operation of the 1,300-kilometre brownfield rail corridor; supporting a US$600 million facility for Dangote Group’s US$7 billion fertiliser expansion programme to scale production in Nigeria; and committing to a combined US$300 million investment alongside Vision Invest in WIOCC Group to accelerate the expansion of critical digital infrastructure across the continent. These investments reflect AFC’s unique approach to developing strategic infrastructure platforms that connect markets, strengthen industrial value chains and mobilise capital at scale to drive Africa’s economic transformation.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

 




 

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Ghana Targets End to Liquid Fuel Purchases for Power as Gas Supply Expands

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GECF

Ghana, Senegal and the GECF outlined how African producers can grow domestic gas use alongside exports at the GECF-AEC Strategic Forum

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, October 14, 2026/APO Group/ –Ghana expects to stop procuring liquid fuels for power generation next year, John Jinapor, Minister for Energy and Green Transition, said during a Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)-hosted strategic session at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town. Ghana has already cut its liquid fuel purchases for electricity from eight cargoes to two, he said, as domestic gas and imports from Nigeria replace diesel and heavy fuel oil in thermal plants.

 




 
 

Ghana’s gas policy prioritizes domestic processing, with gas directed first to power generation and then to industry, Jinapor said. The switch from liquid fuels saved Ghana about $500 million in a single year through import substitution, at a time when electricity demand is growing about 10% annually. Nigeria supplies Ghana through the West African Gas Pipeline, and he said Ghana expects to double those volumes under its current agreements. Ghana is also building a 278 km pipeline to link its main power centers, and is using a levy on pump fuel to fund LPG adoption, targeting 50% penetration within three years.

We are a gas continent before an oil continent

Senegal, which began exporting LNG in 2025, is working to balance exports with supply to its own economy. El Hadji Abdourahmane Diouf, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, said companies often prioritize export markets, leaving governments to secure domestic supply. Senegal is targeting domestic gas supply of around 150 million standard cubic feet per day by 2030, delivered through a national gas network to power plants across the country. Diouf said the network’s pipeline, which has faced delays, is expected within nine months.

Philip Mshelbila, Secretary General of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), called the choice between exports and domestic use “a false choice.” In his address, he said: “Exports mobilize capital, revenue and investment confidence. Domestic utilization is the development multiplier.” The GECF’s Global Gas Outlook projects African gas demand will more than double, from 175 billion cubic meters in 2024 to about 374 billion cubic meters by 2055.

Panel moderator Oliver Onyekweli, Partner at McKinsey & Company, noted that only around 3% of gas commercialized in Africa is traded within the continent. Mshelbila said regional cooperation, gas storage and cross-border infrastructure will determine how resilient African markets are to future supply disruptions. He cited the Senegal-Mauritania Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project as a model.

NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, described gas as a “Swiss knife” for African development, with uses spanning power generation, petrochemicals and fertilizers. “We are a gas continent before an oil continent,” he asserted.

Ghana’s gas master plan, currently under review, sets a 15-year blueprint for the country’s gas infrastructure and budgeting.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 

 




 

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Africa Energy Bank to Begin Financing Gas Projects in Early 2027, African Petroleum Producers Organization (APPO) Says

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African Energy Chamber

APPO’s new bank will prioritize regional corridors as GECF forum panelists flag a gap in domestic gas financing

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, October 14, 2026/APO Group/ –The Africa Energy Bank (AEB) will become operational within weeks and begin financing projects at the start of 2027, Farid Ghezali, Secretary General of the African Petroleum Producers Organization (APPO), said during the technical panel of the GECF-AEC Strategic Forum at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town. The bank, launched by APPO and Afreximbank, will use a corridor approach, prioritizing projects that deliver regional economic development across four pillars: export infrastructure, domestic infrastructure, clean cooking and power.

 




 
 

Ghezali said exports and domestic supply should not compete. “I come from a country where you cannot export any drop of gas if the domestic demand is not satisfied,” he said. APPO and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) signed an agreement earlier this year to work jointly on gas corridors, and plan to harmonize transit tariffs and gas contracts across member states.

I come from a country where you cannot export any drop of gas if the domestic demand is not satisfied

The panel focused on why domestic gas markets remain underdeveloped. Rashid Ali Abdallah, Executive Director of the African Energy Commission (AFREC), said recent investment has gone largely into export terminals while regional pipelines struggle to attract funding. He called for regional financing frameworks for cross-border infrastructure, and for joint planning of gas pipelines and power transmission.

In South Africa, industrial consumers face the loss of natural gas supply within about 18 months, with only a short-term coal supply bridge beyond that, said Jaco Human, Executive Officer of the Industrial Gas Users Association of Southern Africa (IGUA-SA). The gas aggregation company was formed to pool demand, share risk and underwrite new infrastructure across the region. Human said a proposed pipeline linking the Orange Basin to Western Cape and inland markets would need around 200 petajoules of annual demand. “We have much more demand than that, so the problem is not an economic one,” he said. “Rather, it is a coordination problem.”

Abubakar Abbas, Senior Energy Forecast Analyst at the GECF, said Africa will require at least $1 trillion over the next 30 years to develop its gas resources. Per capita energy consumption on the continent is about 25 gigajoules a year, well below the global average. Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of Energy Studies at OPEC, said OPEC expects gas to rise from 17% to 23% of Africa’s energy mix by 2050. Electricity generation is projected to grow from under 1,000 TWh to about 2,700 TWh, with half of it from gas.

The AEB is headquartered in Abuja, where Nigeria handed over the bank’s offices to APPO and Afreximbank in February.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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