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Africa’s Upstream Future: Momentum Builds, but Investment Discipline Remains a Hurdle (By NJ Ayuk)

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10 months ago

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African Energy Chamber

To translate discoveries into development, Africa must confront the operational and investment challenges that stand in the way

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 5, 2026/APO Group/ —By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (https://EnergyChamber.org).

Two breakthrough offshore discoveries in Namibia in 2022 — one by Shell and one by TotalEnergies — marked an important milestone for the country’s future energy landscape and for Africa’s broader upstream ambitions.

The excitement generated by high-impact discoveries creates a ripple effect that benefits the entire continent. I’m convinced that the ongoing interest we’re seeing today in African exploration and production (E&P) stems in part from the major discoveries in Namibia, alongside recent successes in Côte d’Ivoire, Angola, and Egypt.

When you factor in advances in E&P technology, the promise of newly emerging basins, and the continued strength of Africa’s established producing regions, there are genuine reasons to feel confident about the future of African oil and gas.

That sentiment is reflected in the African Energy Chamber’s 2026 Outlook Report, “The State of African Energy,” which projects renewed momentum in the continent’s upstream market during the next several years. According to the report, global E&P capital expenditure (capex) is forecast to reach approximately USD504 billion by 2026, with Africa contributing about USD41 billion.

Africa’s hydrocarbon production is expected to remain stable at roughly 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) through 2026, and new projects are on track to increase output toward 13.6 million boe/d by 2030.

Yes, the report acknowledges that optimism is being tempered by caution. Keen to protect their balance sheets, investors are scrutinizing opportunities closely. But overall, the potential for sustained upstream expansion is truly promising for African states with petroleum reserves. The key will be doing as much as possible to attract the capital needed to pursue the next wave of discoveries.

Frontier and Emerging Basins Signal Strong New Potential

As investors weigh their options, the most compelling signs of progress are coming from Africa’s frontier and emerging basins.

In Namibia’s Orange Sub-Basin, where more than 6 billion boe have been discovered in less than four years, operators are preparing the next wave of high-impact wells. Côte d’Ivoire, meanwhile, is seeing a surge of activity around its recent deepwater finds.

Egypt, which already has long history as a producing state, is experiencing fresh momentum in underexplored offshore acreage. Earlier this year, drilling in the Herodotus Basin confirmed gas at the Nefertari-1 well.

Even in Libya, where hydrocarbons have been produced for decades, frontier acreage remains. BP and Eni aim to spud the Matsola-1 ultra-deepwater gas prospect later this year. If it delivers, the well could pave the way for deeper Sirte Basin exploration and reduce geological risk across the broader Gulf of Sirte.

“The continent continues to offer up new frontiers, all of which may draw exploration capital,” our Outlook report notes. “Places to keep an eye on are the ultra-deepwater portion of the Congo Fan in Angola, the Gabon–Douala Deep Sea Basin offshore São Tomé and Príncipe, the Namibe Basin in Namibia and Angola, the Herodotus Basin offshore Egypt and the offshore portion of the Sirte Basin.

“Others that have already played host to exploration cycles may still present significant opportunities in a similar fashion to the Côte d’Ivoire–Tano Basin. One example is the MSGBC Basin, where over 9.5 Bboe was discovered between 2014 and 2019, but which is still viewed as immature in terms of exploration.”

Still, prospects alone are not enough. To translate discoveries into development, Africa must confront the operational and investment challenges that stand in the way.

Data, Imaging, and a New Era of African Prospecting

Companies are channeling a significant share of their cash flow into dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction instead of chasing growth at any cost

As encouraging as the upstream outlook is, Africa’s geology remains complex, and that complexity can shape how and where companies invest. In parts of West Africa, for example, thick layers of salt can distort seismic signals and make it difficult to identify potential reservoirs with confidence. And in the far south, strong offshore currents can interfere with seismic acquisition itself, degrading data quality and forcing operators to invest in more advanced imaging and noise-reduction technologies.

But as our Outlook report notes, technology is starting to change these dynamics. “Recent advancements in seismic acquisition, processing technologies, and drilling capabilities have enabled exploration efforts over the past decade to target more intricate prospects at greater depths in Africa as elsewhere,” it states.

These advances have been helping oil and gas companies de-risk prospects once considered too complex or too costly to pursue.

Emmanuelle Garinet, TotalEnergies’ vice president for exploration in Africa, has pointed to Namibia as a prime example of how high-resolution seismic imaging and advanced subsurface modeling can reshape exploration strategies. She noted that the company’s decision to drill the Venus prospect — which lies within the Namibian portion of the Orange Sub-Basin — was possible because the technical data provided enough confidence to reduce uncertainty ahead of drilling. The results validated that choice: the 2022 Venus-1 discovery, estimated at 1.5 to 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil, stands as the largest ever made in sub-Saharan Africa. Its scale has reshaped expectations for what may still be unlocked across the Orange Sub-Basin.

The trend is also visible offshore Angola, where better subsurface imaging and advanced drilling systems are opening deepwater and ultra-deepwater opportunities in heavily salt-influenced geology. Azule Energy aims to drill the Kianda prospect in late 2025. If the ultra-deepwater test succeeds, it could pave the way for exploration across a vast area — more than 30,000 square kilometers — previously viewed as high risk.

The Capital Challenge: Competing for Global Investment

But geological complexity isn’t the only factor shaping investment decisions. Political and security challenges persist in several countries — among them Nigeria, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo — and can materially affect both operations and capital flows. Add to that the lack of clarity around monetization and industrialization pathways, and it becomes clear why some investors remain cautious.

The Outlook report notes that upstream capital spending in Africa has risen consistently over the past three years as the sector recovers from the pandemic-related lows of 2020. Even so, worldwide investment growth has not kept pace with the strong cash flows generated by upstream operations. Analysts from firms like Wood Mackenzie and Deloitte all describe the same pattern: Companies are channeling a significant share of their cash flow into dividends, buybacks, and debt reduction instead of chasing growth at any cost.

In short, Africa is competing for capital at a time when global investors are more disciplined than ever.

In this environment, African states cannot simply assume that interest in our geology will translate into final investment decisions. We must move quickly to capitalize on today’s E&P appetite by reducing above-ground risks, providing clear monetization and industrialization pathways, and building stable, predictable frameworks that give investors the confidence to commit for the long term.

The window of opportunity is open, but it will not stay open forever.

“The State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report” is available for download. Visit https://apo-opa.co/4aKVLn1 to request your copy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Africa and Caribbean trade potential could reach $1.65 billion annually by 2030: International Trade Centre (ITC)-Afreximbank report

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2 hours ago

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November 4, 2026

By

Afreximbank

The report finds that around 80% of Africa’s annual goods export potential to the Caribbean remains untapped

ST. JOHN’S, Antigua and Barbuda, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –Annual trade in goods and services between Africa and the Caribbean could reach up to $1.65 billion by 2030, excluding mineral fuels, according to a new report launched today by the International Trade Centre (ITC) and African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) on the sidelines of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda.

 




  

The report, Reshaping Africa-Caribbean Trade: Opportunities for Economic Transformation, (https://apo-opa.co/4eiz62u) finds that while Africa and the Caribbean share deep historical and cultural links, trade between the two regions continues to represent only a small share of each region’s overall trade, despite complementarities across sectors ranging from agribusiness and manufacturing to services and the creative economy.

A look at the numbers

The report finds that around 80% of Africa’s annual goods export potential to the Caribbean remains untapped, with are significant opportunities for export growth if trade and investment is actively promoted and facilitated.

Africa and the Caribbean must transform a shared history into shared prosperity

Caribbean export potential lies in the services sector, reaching $481 million. The report identifies business opportunities across several priority sectors, including processed food and animal feed, chemicals, minerals and metals, apparel and textiles, leather and footwear, tourism, transport services and creative industries.

These findings – and more – are based on trade and export potential analysis, detailed sector assessments and a survey of 1,175 businesses and business support organizations across Africa and the Caribbean.

Tapping into priority sectors

ITC Executive Director Pamela Coke-Hamilton (https://apo-opa.co/3WHHZMU), in launching the report, said: ‘At a time of major shifts in global trade, countries need to strengthen regional ties and invest in value addition, to build resilience. We know the major trade opportunities between Africa and the Caribbean – and now we can focus on helping businesses take advantage of those opportunities through better market intelligence, improved logistics and greater access to finance.’

Commenting on the report, Denys Denya, Senior Executive Vice President at Afreximbank, said: ‘Africa and the Caribbean must transform a shared history into shared prosperity. With our CARICOM office in Barbados, about $1 billion in approved transactions and a $5 billion regional financing commitment, Afreximbank is advancing this vision through financing, deposit mobilization under CENDEP, business links through the annual Afri-Caribbean Trade and Investment Forum, local-currency payments through CAPSS and creative-industry collaboration through CANEX. This report offers a practical roadmap to turn untapped potential into bankable opportunities across agribusiness, manufacturing, tourism and the creative economy. Through targeted financing, stronger transport and logistics links and strategic partnerships, we can build a Global Africa connected by heritage, trade, investment and shared opportunity.’

The report finds that businesses continue to face significant challenges, including high transport costs, limited direct shipping links, regulatory barriers, limited access to finance and difficulties in identifying trusted commercial partners. It highlights that future economic cooperation should extend beyond traditional trade in goods, including through joint investment ventures, digital services, creative industries and tourism. It also calls for targeted action to improve market intelligence and business matchmaking; expand access to trade finance and payment solutions; strengthen transport and logistics connectivity; support sector-specific value chain development; improve regulatory cooperation and market access; and foster stronger partnerships among business support organizations.

Read the full report HERE (https://apo-opa.co/4exHBH9)

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 Investment Track to Spotlight New Capital Opportunities

Published

2 hours ago

on

November 4, 2026

By

Etu Energias

A high-level ministerial roundtable, a project development clinic and matchmaking sessions are set to drive partnerships across the MSGBC region

DAKAR, Senegal, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –The MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 conference and exhibition, taking place from December 1–3 in Dakar, will introduce a dedicated Investment Track designed to deepen capital engagement across West Africa’s energy landscape. Building on the region’s expanding upstream activity, infrastructure development and cross-border integration, the track will serve as a platform where governments, investors and project developers can align on investment pathways across the MSGBC basin.

 




  

At the core of the Investment Track will be the Ministerial Leadership & Global Capital Roundtable, where energy ministers will convene to examine how enhanced regional cooperation, regulatory alignment and coordinated infrastructure development can accelerate capital flows into the sector. The session is expected to focus on the policy and financing frameworks required to unlock large-scale projects, including investment codes such as Mauritania’s 2025 reform, as well as strengthening fiscal incentives and improving regulatory clarity to attract capital into the energy sector.

The Investment Track is designed to move beyond dialogue and into deal facilitation, bringing together decision-makers who can directly shape the next phase of energy investment

For the first time at the MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power event, the Project Development Clinic will introduce a more technical format. In this small-group advisory setting, project developers, government representatives and investors will engage directly on project challenges. The clinic aims to improve project structuring, address financing bottlenecks and identify practical solutions to accelerate development timelines and move projects closer to final investment decisions.

The Investment Track will also feature structured Business-to-Business Matchmaking sessions designed to connect stakeholders across the energy value chain. These targeted engagements will facilitate discussions between investors, operators, service companies and public-sector institutions, enabling participants to explore partnerships and co-investment opportunities.

Together, these sessions reflect the MSGBC region’s broader shift toward investment-led growth. In Senegal, this momentum is already visible through the partnership between state-owned agencies APIX and COS-PETROGAZ to improve the business environment for energy projects and streamline investment processes. With PETROSEN advancing development work on the Yakaar-Teranga gas project and targeting a final investment decision in December 2026, alongside new exploration opportunities emerging onshore, the Investment Track will provide a platform to connect the region’s resource potential with investors and project developers.

“The Investment Track is designed to move beyond dialogue and into deal facilitation, bringing together decision-makers who can directly shape the next phase of energy investment across the region. By creating a space for investors, project developers and public-sector stakeholders to engage directly, the track will help turn investment priorities into concrete partnerships and project opportunities,” states Sandra Jeque, Events and Project Director, Energy Capital & Power.

Explore opportunities, foster partnerships and stay at the forefront of the MSGBC region’s oil, gas and power sector. Visit www.MSGBCOilGasAndPower.com to secure your participation at the MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power 2026 conference. To sponsor or participate as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 




 

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Afreximbank and partners bring together investors and industrialists in Benin to Accelerate local processing and investment in Special Economic Zones

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2 hours ago

on

November 4, 2026

By

Afreximbank

Held under the theme “Investing in Local Processing and Industrialisation”, the forum brought together international investors, industrialists, buyers and development finance institutions to explore the vast opportunities for local processing and strategic partnerships offered by the GDIZ

COTONOU, Benin, November 3, 2026/APO Group/ –African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com), in partnership with the Société d’Investissement et de Promotion de l’Industrie (SIPI-BENIN S.A), the entity responsible for developing the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ), and Panafritex, hosted the Special Economic Zones Investment Forum (FocusSEZ 2026) on 21 and 22 October 2026 at the Sofitel Cotonou Marina Hotel and the GDIZ.

 




  

Held under the theme “Investing in Local Processing and Industrialisation”, the forum brought together international investors, industrialists, buyers and development finance institutions to explore the vast opportunities for local processing and strategic partnerships offered by the GDIZ.

Local processing at the heart of discussions

In his address, Mr Jean Arsene Yemina, Regional Director of Operations for Francophone West Africa at Afreximbank, speaking on behalf of Ms Kanayo Awani, Executive Vice President, Intra-African Trade and Export Development, Afreximbank, highlighted the role of financing and industrial partnerships in transforming Africa’s raw materials into finished products:

“Here in Benin, textiles have become the driving force behind this transformation. The Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone was established through a partnership between the Government of Benin and ARISE IIP, with Afreximbank proud to have contributed to financing its development.

“Here in Benin, the textile industry has become the driving force behind this transformation. The Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone was created through a partnership between the Government of Benin and ARISE IIP, and Afreximbank is proud to have helped finance its establishment. Today, the zone is home to West Africa’s first fully integrated cotton-to-garment manufacturing platform, operated by Benin Textile (BTEX). The entire value chain, from ginning and spinning to weaving and finished garments, is carried out on African soil by African hands. Before the creation of the GDIZ, less than 1% of Benin’s cotton was processed locally. In just three years, the zone has come to process approximately 40,000 metric tons of cotton—nearly 12% of national production—and to produce millions of “Made in Benin” garments for major international brands such as US Polo, Kiabi, and H&M.”

He also highlighted similar efforts underway at the GDIZ to develop local processing in the cashew, soybean and shea value chains.

Mr Létondji Beheton, Director General of SIPI-BENIN S.A., emphasised the need to strengthen value addition across the continent:

“Our ambition can no longer be limited to producing and exporting raw materials. We must go further by processing more of these resources on our continent, developing competitive industries, strengthening our value chains and retaining a greater share of the wealth generated from our natural resources.”

He added: “It is against this backdrop that the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ) was established, as the outcome of a public-private partnership between the Republic of Benin and ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms (ARISE IIP). This integrated industrial platform embodies a shared commitment to making local processing a driver of economic growth, job creation and industrial development.

“By attracting manufacturing facilities and developing integrated value chains, the GDIZ is helping transform raw materials into higher-value-added products, strengthen Benin’s industrial capacity and enhance its competitiveness in regional and international markets. In doing so, it is contributing to the development of a more diversified economy that generates wealth and creates sustainable opportunities for the country.”

Africa has significant potential to strengthen its position in the global textile industry

Mr Arvind Mathur, CEO of PANAFRITEX, highlighted the role of ARISE IIP’s textile platform in developing an integrated textile industry in Africa, capable of transforming the continent’s cotton into finished, high-value-added products.

“Africa has significant potential to strengthen its position in the global textile industry. Realising this ambition will require the development of integrated industrial capacities that can transform cotton grown on the continent into higher-value-added finished products, while enhancing the competitiveness of the sector and expanding its access to international markets.

“At PANAFRITEX, we are contributing to this momentum by developing a model that brings together industrial processing, business development and the promotion of finished products. Our own brands, Obalé and SúSú, are part of this approach, connecting Africa’s manufacturing capabilities with consumer markets.

“The commissioning of our first industrial facilities at the GDIZ in Benin marks a major milestone in the rollout of this model. At the same time, the development of new facilities in Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana and Tanzania reflects our ambition to progressively expand our industrial footprint across the continent.

“Through this expansion, we aim to contribute to strengthening Africa’s textile value chains, creating skilled jobs and ensuring that a greater share of the value generated is retained locally.”

Financing, Market Access and Business Networking

Discussions focused on the development of a new generation of African industrial hubs, the cotton value chain, financing for the textile industry, as well as logistics and integrated supply chains. The programme also featured business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-government (B2G) meetings with targeted public-sector institutions, aimed at identifying investment opportunities, financing solutions and potential business partnerships.

Afreximbank presented the range of financial instruments and support facilities it offers investors and businesses to facilitate the establishment and expansion of their industrial operations. These include long-term financing and equipment financing, trade finance and working capital facilities, guarantees and risk-sharing mechanisms, as well as project preparation support and equity investment through the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA).

The Bank also highlighted its Africa Buyers Programme, which connects African buyers with manufacturers operating in industrial zones across the continent. The initiative aims to complement access to finance with market opportunities for products manufactured in Africa.

A full day was dedicated to a visit to the GDIZ, during which participants toured its infrastructure and industrial facilities and took part in business matchmaking sessions bringing together investors, manufacturers and buyers. These activities were designed to facilitate the establishment of new manufacturing facilities and expand sourcing opportunities for “Made in Benin” products, particularly in agribusiness, textiles, plastics, packaging and industrial equipment.

Across sectors ranging from agro-processing and textiles to plastics, packaging and industrial equipment, the overarching objective is to accelerate the establishment of new production facilities and strengthen the supply of quality-certified “Made in Benin” products.

An Integrated Model for Advancing Industrial Sovereignty

Covering 1,640 hectares, the Glo-Djigbé Industrial Zone (GDIZ) is the result of a strategic partnership between the Republic of Benin and ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms. Designed as a comprehensive, integrated ecosystem, it supports investors across the entire value chain, from securing supplies of locally sourced agricultural and mineral raw materials to industrial processing and the export of finished products, leveraging its direct connectivity to the country’s logistics infrastructure and the Port of Cotonou.

By hosting this international forum, Benin is once again demonstrating its ability to offer an attractive business environment, an enabling regulatory framework and world-class infrastructure to help build the future of African industry.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Afreximbank.

 




 

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