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Addressing Delays in the Name of Progress: The State of Play of African Oil and Gas (By Gawie Kanjemba)

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African oil

At a time when African oil and gas holds the key to a secure energy future, the trend of project delays needs to be addressed

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 16, 2023/APO Group/ — 

By Gawie Kanjemba, International Energy Fellow, African Energy Chamber (www.EnergyChamber.org)

Historically, oil and gas projects are known to experience delays ranging from 5% to 20% of the project duration owing to project complexity, significant capital requirements and the multi-faceted nature of developments. In 2023, oil and gas projects across Africa are experiencing even further delays, a trend which is detailed in the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) recent market-focused report, The State of African Energy Q1, 2023 Outlook. The report paints a telling picture of the challenges facing the industry and the impacts these delays could have.

Procrastination: The Foe of Progress

According to the report, delays from discovery to final investment decision (FID) to development kick-off have increased, leading to revenue losses due to deferred production, increased costs for contractors, and essentially lack of progress. This trend mimics Parkinson’s Law of Delay, an observation that work will expand to fill the time allocated to it. In this scenario, procrastination is the ultimate foe of progress and productivity, and unless delays are addressed, Africa will not be able to unlock the full potential of its oil and gas. 

Despite their significance, a number of large-scale projects are experiencing a lull. These include the Mozambique liquefied natural gas project which has experienced multiple delays due to security concerns. Developed by TotalEnergies, the project was originally scheduled to start production in 2024 (FID was secured in 2019) but the start-up is now delayed to the late-2020s due to the declaration of force majeure by TotalEnergies. Additionally, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline – which will transport crude oil from Uganda to Tanzania for export – has been delayed due to financing challenges and environmental opposition. The project, which is being developed by TotalEnergies and other partners, was initially expected to start operating in 2020 but is now expected to come online in 2025. In Nigeria, several offshore oil projects have experienced delays due to security concerns, regulatory issues, and technical challenges. For example, the TotalEnergies-developed Egina oil field, saw a 12-month halt due to issues related to local content requirements and delays in the delivery of key components. Meanwhile, sizeable natural gas volumes discovered in Ethiopia in the 1970–1980s are yet to see FID, with project delays extending decades.

However, there are several successful stories such as the Jubilee field off the coast of Ghana, which has been in production since 2010 and has had a significant positive impact on the country’s economy. Another example is Egypt’s Zohr gas field, which has been in production since 2017, and Angola’s Kaombo, which has been producing since 2018. These countries have experienced relatively few delays in their projects and are now enjoying the benefits of their successful development. Unless other O&G projects are developed with the same urgency, Africa’s production forecast will see a downturn.

According to the AEC’s report, the currently producing fields, both liquids and gas, are in terminal decline due to depleting reservoirs

Start-ups Critical for Long-Term Output

According to the AEC’s report, the currently producing fields, both liquids and gas, are in terminal decline due to depleting reservoirs. Infill drilling or redevelopment programs on these fields, which involve brownfield spending, may only temporarily stabilize the decline in production. Liquids output from these fields is expected to decline from 7.66 MMbbls/d in 2023 to 6.85 MMbbls/d in 2025 and 4.7 MMbbls/d in 2030. The average annual production decline rate is 8% through 2025-2030 and a higher 10% through 2031-2040. Any further delays or shelving of future start-ups can be catastrophic to Africa’s hydrocarbon output. Although short-term (2023-2025) start-ups are expected to have little impact on the forecast, the medium-term (2026-2030) and long-term (2030+) start-ups are expected to drive a revival in Africa’s liquids output. The good news is that the overall impact of delayed start-ups is short-lived, and the total liquids output from Africa is expected to ramp up to about 8.4 MMbbls/d in 2036.

Similarly, regarding gas production, the decline in producing fields, though terminal, is not as steep as liquids-producing fields. The short-term start-ups are estimated to account for 10% of the total output by 2025, but the share from the currently producing fields is expected to drop to 50% by 2031 and further to about a quarter of the total output by 2040. The long-term start-ups are estimated to add up to a third of the total output by 2035 and half of the total output by 2037-2038, and this share is only expected to increase going forward.

Capital Flows to Africa’s Deepwaters

Governments are already considering project delays and the issues caused, both economically for the countries dependent on hydrocarbon exports and domestically for countries looking to diversify the energy sector. Efforts have been made to address these issues, such as Nigeria passing the Petroleum Industry Act resulting in new production-sharing contracts signed with supermajors. As such, investment is seeing a gradual surge, and Africa’s deepwater prospects are gaining attention.

Due to the fact that most of the untapped O&G are currently located in deep waters off the coast of Africa, the majority of future investment is expected to be directed towards the deep offshore. By 2025, it is projected that 45% of the estimated $24 billion greenfield spending will be in deepwater projects, and by 2030, it is estimated to increase to over 50%. This trend is expected to continue, with over 55% of the estimated $64.5 billion total spending in 2035 projected to be spent on deepwater projects. Of the estimated $775 billion total greenfield spending between 2023 and 2040, approximately 48% is expected to be spent on deepwater projects.

Some notable deepwater projects in Africa include the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA), Yakaar–Teranga, Bir Allah, and Orca projects offshore Senegal-Mauritania as well as the Pecan project offshore Ghana; the Brulpadda and Luiperd gas fields offshore South Africa; and the recently discovered Graff, Venus and Jonker finds offshore Namibia. These deepwater projects are significant in terms of reserves and cost, making them major drivers of O&G spending. Given the importance of these projects for Africa’s production forecast, both governments and operators must prioritize securing funding for their development.

The AEC’s State of African Energy Q1, 2023 Outlook provides a comprehensive overview of the state of play of Africa’s O&G projects, highlighting the urgent need to advance collaboration, investment and development. Time is of the essence, and missing this opportunity could result in a significant development gap between Africa and the rest of the world. However, with accelerated projects, it is still possible for Africa to utilize its resources while adhering to global climate targets. In this context, AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk’s slogan, “Drill baby Drill!” holds a palatable meaning. Let us work together to prevent project delays and drive environmentally-sound developments so that Africa benefits from its O&G resources. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

Energy

SBM Offshore Confirmed as Silver Sponsor for African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Amid Africa FPSO Expansion Push

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African Energy Chamber

SBM Offshore will participate as Silver Sponsor at African Energy Week 2026, where they are set to showcase FPSO expansion in Angola, Namibia and Guyana amid strong financials and a deepwater innovation strategy

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Multinational oil and gas services company SBM Offshore will participate at this year’s African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 Conference and Exhibition as a Silver Sponsor, reinforcing the company’s long-term commitment to Africa’s expanding deepwater oil and gas industry. Their participation comes as SBM Offshore accelerates brownfield optimization projects in Angola while aggressively positioning itself for new frontier developments in Namibia’s Orange Basin.

 

SBM Offshore’s return to AEW, which takes place from October 12–16 in Cape Town, is expected to draw significant industry attention as operators, financiers and EPC contractors evaluate the next wave of floating production infrastructure across the Atlantic Basin. With more than 20 years of experience in Africa and over $31 billion in contract backlog globally, the company remains one of the world’s most influential FPSO suppliers.

The Sponsorship follows several major milestones announced during 2025 and 2026. On May 26, the American Bureau of Shipping approved SBM Offshore’s seawater intake riser technology developed alongside Shell. The system pumps cold seawater from depths of 700m to FPSO topsides, reducing onboard cooling energy demand and improving emissions performance for future African and South American projects.

The company’s financial position strengthened considerably following the $2.32 billion sale of FPSO One Guyana to ExxonMobil in February 2026. The transaction helped drive a 216% year-on-year increase in Q1 2026 directional revenue to $3.5 billion while reducing SBM Offshore’s net debt from $5.7 billion to $3.2 billion by March 21, 2026.

SBM Offshore continues to demonstrate the technical expertise, operational scale and long-term investment approach needed to advance Africa’s next generation of energy projects

In March 2026, ExxonMobil awarded SBM Offshore front-end engineering and design contracts for the Longtail development in Guyana. The proposed FPSO is expected to feature the world’s highest gas-handling capacity ever deployed on a floating production vessel, processing 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas and 250,000 barrels of condensate daily.

Across Africa, SBM Offshore continues expanding its offshore footprint. In Angola, the company signed multi-year extensions in December 2025 with Esso Exploration Angola for FPSO Mondo and FPSO Saxi Batuque in Block 15, extending operations through 2032. Brownfield upgrades and life-extension works commenced in early 2026 to support declining reservoir pressure management and maintain environmental compliance standards.

The company also finalized a share purchase agreement with Equatorial Guinea’s national oil company GEPetrol in December 2025, restructuring regional asset ownership and supporting localized operational transitions. The FPSO Aseng formally exited SBM Offshore’s lease-and-operate fleet during the same period as management responsibilities shifted toward Equatoguinean entities.

Namibia retains a central focus of SBM Offshore’s African growth strategy. The company is actively competing for TotalEnergies’ Venus FPSO contract in the Orange Basin, one of Africa’s largest recent offshore discoveries with estimated resources of roughly 2 billion barrels. SBM Offshore has expanded its Cape Town commercial engineering workforce while positioning its standardized technologies for upcoming South Atlantic developments.

“SBM Offshore’s participation at this year’s event reflects the growing momentum behind Africa’s deepwater industry and the critical role FPSO technology will play in unlocking new production. From Angola’s mature offshore hubs to Namibia’s frontier discoveries, SBM Offshore continues to demonstrate the technical expertise, operational scale and long-term investment approach needed to advance Africa’s next generation of energy projects,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber.

Looking ahead, SBM Offshore aims to combine frontier expansion with lower-emission offshore production systems. Through partnerships with SLB and Cognite, the company is integrating industrial AI platforms to its global fleet while scaling standardized hull construction to accelerate project delivery timelines across Africa and Latin America.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa Joins African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 as South Africa Opens R400B Grid Expansion to Private Investment

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Kgosientsho Ramokgopa

South Africa has moved from rolling blackouts to a year of stable supply, and Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa now turns to the grid expansion and market reforms needed to keep the lights on and draw private capital

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity and Energy of the Republic of South Africa, has been confirmed as a featured speaker at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026, where he is expected to outline the next phase of the country’s power-sector recovery and the investment drive needed to expand the electricity grid.

 

Taking place October 12-16, AEW 2026 represents the largest energy gathering on the African continent, offering a strategic platform for dealmaking and partnerships. Minister Ramokgopa’s participation reflects the country’s ambitions to strengthen investment flows across the power and energy markets, supporting long-term generation resilience and improved transmission networks.

South Africa has moved from one of the worst phases of its electricity crisis to its most stable supply in years. The country recently passed a full year without load-shedding, and the grid is at its strongest in half a decade, with roughly 4,400 MW more generation on hand than a year earlier. The return of Kusile Power Station to its full output of about 4,800 MW helped anchor the turnaround.

South Africa’s recovery shows what disciplined execution can achieve, and opening the grid to private capital is the logical next step

With supply stabilized, Ramokgopa has reframed the current market challenge as being less about generation and more to do with transmission, offtakers and bottlenecks, pointing to more than 130 GW of generation projects that have yet to secure firm offtake agreements. That bottleneck sits at the center of the country’s largest infrastructure push. The Transmission Development Plan calls for 14,000 km of new power lines and 105 substations by 2030, at a cost of roughly R400 billion, to unlock an additional 22.5 GW of capacity.

Because neither Eskom nor the state can fund that build alone, the government has opened transmission to private investment for the first time through the Independent Transmission Projects (ITP) program. In December 2025, Ramokgopa named seven prequalified bidders for the first phase, all of them international-led consortia. The phase covers 1,164 km of high-voltage lines across seven corridors, with a combined value of about $1 billion. A request for proposals is expected in the second half of 2026.

“South Africa’s recovery shows what disciplined execution can achieve, and opening the grid to private capital is the logical next step,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “The real opportunity now is in transmission, and the investors who help build that network will open up generation that will change South Africa’s future for the better.”

Private appetite is already evident on the generation side. The latest round of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program drew 10.2 GW of bids against the 5 GW on offer. In the 2025/26 financial year, eight new independent power projects came online with a combined 800 MW, and another 1,610 MW is under construction.

Minister Ramokgopa is also expected to address the Integrated Resource Plan 2025, the government’s blueprint guiding new generation capacity, and the rollout of a competitive wholesale electricity market intended to open the sector beyond Eskom.

As AEW 2026 prepares to convene policymakers, investors and operators at the Cape Town International Convention Center this October, Minister Ramokgopa’s participation is the host nation’s signal that its power sector is open for investment.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) 2026 programme launched as Africa’s carbon markets move from readiness to delivery

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CMAS

Positioned as a pan-African marketplace, CMAS connects policy, project pipelines, capital and buyers in a structured environment focused on enabling real deal flow

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, June 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Africa is emerging as an exciting destination to develop carbon market projects with improved policy certainty and more and more projects becoming investment-ready. As global carbon markets transition from rule-setting to real transactions, with Article 6 mechanisms moving into implementation and compliance-driven demand such as CORSIA accelerating, attention is shifting towards where credible supply, policy certainty and investment-ready projects can be delivered at scale.

 

Against this backdrop, the Carbon Markets Africa Summit (CMAS) that is organised by VUKA Group has released its official 2026 programme, outlining how Africa’s carbon markets can move beyond frameworks into execution, investment and transactions. The summit will take place from 13–15 October 2026 in Kigali, Rwanda, hosted by the Ministry of Environment of Rwanda, with UNDP and the African Development Bank (AfDB) as host organisations, the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA) as host partner, and AUDA-NEPAD as the strategic institutional partner.

Positioned as a pan-African marketplace, CMAS connects policy, project pipelines, capital and buyers in a structured environment focused on enabling real deal flow.

This year’s programme reflects a changing market dynamic, one where integrity, quality and transaction readiness are becoming decisive.

Carbon markets are entering a more selective and operational phase. The question is no longer whether Africa has a role to play, but whether the continent can bring forward credible projects, enabling frameworks and market infrastructure to transact at scale,” said Emmanuelle Nicholls, Project Lead. “CMAS 2026 is designed as a response to that moment – connecting the actors, pipelines and capital needed to move from ambition to execution.”

Africa’s carbon markets must be built on integrity, equity, and continental coordination so that carbon finance delivers real value

Within this evolving context, the summit places strong emphasis on the foundations required to scale markets responsibly. As Estherine Fotabong, Director at AUDA-NEPAD, notes, “Africa’s carbon markets must be built on integrity, equity, and continental coordination so that carbon finance delivers real value for communities, ecosystems, and sustainable development across the continent.”

A programme built for execution

The CMAS 2026 programme spans the full carbon market value chain from policy and Article 6 implementation to project development, finance and transactions. Key highlights include the keynote opening session on delivering projects, capital and transactions at scale, a high-level dialogue on trust and market readiness, ministerial and technical roundtables, and sessions focused on buyer demand, investor priorities and deal structuring.

 

A central feature is a curated pipeline of African carbon projects across nature-based solutions, regenerative agriculture, carbon removals, waste-to-value and blue carbon, presented through project showcases, case studies and investment-ready deal rooms.

The programme also includes solution labs and technical workshops addressing critical bottlenecks—including Article 6 and CORSIA implementation, early-stage finance, MRV systems and project bankability, alongside live demonstrations of digital carbon infrastructure, ensuring focus on practical market development and delivery.

CMAS 2026 is hosted in Rwanda, a country advancing carbon market frameworks under Article 6, and takes place at a pivotal moment as global markets increasingly prioritise integrity, quality and real delivery at scale.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of VUKA Group.

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