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Addressing Delays in the Name of Progress: The State of Play of African Oil and Gas (By Gawie Kanjemba)

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3 years ago

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African oil

At a time when African oil and gas holds the key to a secure energy future, the trend of project delays needs to be addressed

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 16, 2023/APO Group/ — 

By Gawie Kanjemba, International Energy Fellow, African Energy Chamber (www.EnergyChamber.org)

Historically, oil and gas projects are known to experience delays ranging from 5% to 20% of the project duration owing to project complexity, significant capital requirements and the multi-faceted nature of developments. In 2023, oil and gas projects across Africa are experiencing even further delays, a trend which is detailed in the African Energy Chamber’s (AEC) recent market-focused report, The State of African Energy Q1, 2023 Outlook. The report paints a telling picture of the challenges facing the industry and the impacts these delays could have.

Procrastination: The Foe of Progress

According to the report, delays from discovery to final investment decision (FID) to development kick-off have increased, leading to revenue losses due to deferred production, increased costs for contractors, and essentially lack of progress. This trend mimics Parkinson’s Law of Delay, an observation that work will expand to fill the time allocated to it. In this scenario, procrastination is the ultimate foe of progress and productivity, and unless delays are addressed, Africa will not be able to unlock the full potential of its oil and gas. 

Despite their significance, a number of large-scale projects are experiencing a lull. These include the Mozambique liquefied natural gas project which has experienced multiple delays due to security concerns. Developed by TotalEnergies, the project was originally scheduled to start production in 2024 (FID was secured in 2019) but the start-up is now delayed to the late-2020s due to the declaration of force majeure by TotalEnergies. Additionally, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline – which will transport crude oil from Uganda to Tanzania for export – has been delayed due to financing challenges and environmental opposition. The project, which is being developed by TotalEnergies and other partners, was initially expected to start operating in 2020 but is now expected to come online in 2025. In Nigeria, several offshore oil projects have experienced delays due to security concerns, regulatory issues, and technical challenges. For example, the TotalEnergies-developed Egina oil field, saw a 12-month halt due to issues related to local content requirements and delays in the delivery of key components. Meanwhile, sizeable natural gas volumes discovered in Ethiopia in the 1970–1980s are yet to see FID, with project delays extending decades.

However, there are several successful stories such as the Jubilee field off the coast of Ghana, which has been in production since 2010 and has had a significant positive impact on the country’s economy. Another example is Egypt’s Zohr gas field, which has been in production since 2017, and Angola’s Kaombo, which has been producing since 2018. These countries have experienced relatively few delays in their projects and are now enjoying the benefits of their successful development. Unless other O&G projects are developed with the same urgency, Africa’s production forecast will see a downturn.

According to the AEC’s report, the currently producing fields, both liquids and gas, are in terminal decline due to depleting reservoirs

Start-ups Critical for Long-Term Output

According to the AEC’s report, the currently producing fields, both liquids and gas, are in terminal decline due to depleting reservoirs. Infill drilling or redevelopment programs on these fields, which involve brownfield spending, may only temporarily stabilize the decline in production. Liquids output from these fields is expected to decline from 7.66 MMbbls/d in 2023 to 6.85 MMbbls/d in 2025 and 4.7 MMbbls/d in 2030. The average annual production decline rate is 8% through 2025-2030 and a higher 10% through 2031-2040. Any further delays or shelving of future start-ups can be catastrophic to Africa’s hydrocarbon output. Although short-term (2023-2025) start-ups are expected to have little impact on the forecast, the medium-term (2026-2030) and long-term (2030+) start-ups are expected to drive a revival in Africa’s liquids output. The good news is that the overall impact of delayed start-ups is short-lived, and the total liquids output from Africa is expected to ramp up to about 8.4 MMbbls/d in 2036.

Similarly, regarding gas production, the decline in producing fields, though terminal, is not as steep as liquids-producing fields. The short-term start-ups are estimated to account for 10% of the total output by 2025, but the share from the currently producing fields is expected to drop to 50% by 2031 and further to about a quarter of the total output by 2040. The long-term start-ups are estimated to add up to a third of the total output by 2035 and half of the total output by 2037-2038, and this share is only expected to increase going forward.

Capital Flows to Africa’s Deepwaters

Governments are already considering project delays and the issues caused, both economically for the countries dependent on hydrocarbon exports and domestically for countries looking to diversify the energy sector. Efforts have been made to address these issues, such as Nigeria passing the Petroleum Industry Act resulting in new production-sharing contracts signed with supermajors. As such, investment is seeing a gradual surge, and Africa’s deepwater prospects are gaining attention.

Due to the fact that most of the untapped O&G are currently located in deep waters off the coast of Africa, the majority of future investment is expected to be directed towards the deep offshore. By 2025, it is projected that 45% of the estimated $24 billion greenfield spending will be in deepwater projects, and by 2030, it is estimated to increase to over 50%. This trend is expected to continue, with over 55% of the estimated $64.5 billion total spending in 2035 projected to be spent on deepwater projects. Of the estimated $775 billion total greenfield spending between 2023 and 2040, approximately 48% is expected to be spent on deepwater projects.

Some notable deepwater projects in Africa include the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA), Yakaar–Teranga, Bir Allah, and Orca projects offshore Senegal-Mauritania as well as the Pecan project offshore Ghana; the Brulpadda and Luiperd gas fields offshore South Africa; and the recently discovered Graff, Venus and Jonker finds offshore Namibia. These deepwater projects are significant in terms of reserves and cost, making them major drivers of O&G spending. Given the importance of these projects for Africa’s production forecast, both governments and operators must prioritize securing funding for their development.

The AEC’s State of African Energy Q1, 2023 Outlook provides a comprehensive overview of the state of play of Africa’s O&G projects, highlighting the urgent need to advance collaboration, investment and development. Time is of the essence, and missing this opportunity could result in a significant development gap between Africa and the rest of the world. However, with accelerated projects, it is still possible for Africa to utilize its resources while adhering to global climate targets. In this context, AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk’s slogan, “Drill baby Drill!” holds a palatable meaning. Let us work together to prevent project delays and drive environmentally-sound developments so that Africa benefits from its O&G resources. 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Investment, Fuel Security and Strategy to Take Center Stage Across Angola Oil & Gas (AOG) 2026 Multi-Track Program

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1 day ago

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March 27, 2026

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Energy Capital

With strategic, technical and roundtable discussions, AOG 2026 strengthens its position as Angola’s premier platform for industry dialogue, investment and project development

LUANDA, Angola, March 27, 2026/APO Group/ –The Angola Oil & Gas (AOG) Conference and Exhibition returns to Luanda this September as a bridge connecting global investors and project developers with Angolan projects and partners. At a time when global supply disruptions and geopolitics are sharpening consumer focus on Africa, Angola offers the stability, resource base and investment appeal needed to support long-term security. Reflecting this focus, AOG will once again feature a multi-track program designed to showcase Angolan opportunities to a global audience.

Across three primary tracks – the Strategic, Technical and Roundtables Track – AOG 2026 will bring together policymakers, operators, financiers and technology providers to address challenges and opportunities across the full investment value chain. The expanded program structure underscores the event’s commitment to facilitating targeted discussions that support project development, strengthen partnerships and address the most pressing challenges facing Angola’s oil and gas sector today.

Strategic Track

As Angola continues to position itself as a leading African investment destination, the AOG 2026 Strategic Track will provide a platform for high-level dialogue between government, operators and investors, focusing on the policies, partnerships and capital frameworks required to sustain production and drive new exploration. Taking place across the two-day main conference, the Strategic Track will address the macro and investment-driven themes shaping Angola’s oil and gas industry.

Sessions will cover investment trends, Angola’s upstream competitiveness, advancing deepwater frontier momentum and opportunities in building an Angolan gas economy. Additional discussions will examine oil trade and the impacts of geopolitics, financing solutions for independents, fuel supply security and refining and the economics of local content success.

Technical Track

Running alongside the Strategic Track, the Technical Track will feature a series of presentations and discussions addressing critical operational and technical challenges across Angola’s oil and gas sector. This track will focus on practical solutions and emerging technologies that are shaping the future of the industry.

Topics will include M&A trends and asset transactions, accelerating AI adoption in oil and gas operations, building the next generation workforce and developing decommissioning frameworks for ageing assets. By focusing on operational efficiency, technology deployment and workforce development, the Technical Track will provide valuable insights for companies looking to optimize performance and extend the life of Angola’s producing assets while preparing for the next generation of projects.

Roundtables Track

A strategic feature at AOG, the Roundtables Track will introduce a more interactive discussion format focused on some of the industry’s most complex and strategic issues. These sessions will bring together small groups of stakeholders for targeted discussions on ensuring global compliance, Angola’s licensing landscape, partnerships and the future of upstream development.

Additional topics will include resolving the dollar/kwanza conundrum, the role of local financial institutions in the oil and gas sector and strategies to strengthen collaboration between international investors and local companies. The introduction of the Roundtables Track reflects growing demand for more focused, solution-driven discussions that move beyond traditional conference formats and toward practical problem-solving and partnership building.

Additional Features: Pre-Conference

In addition to the main conference program, AOG 2026 will include a dedicated pre-conference agenda on September 8, setting the tone ahead of the main conference discussions. Pre-conference sessions will cover subsurface imaging and structural analysis, Angola’s fiscals in a global context and strategies for strengthening Angolan institutions.

Several industry-led workshops will also take place, with companies offering insights into the technologies, solutions and tools that are transforming Angola’s oil and gas sector. These sessions are designed to provide practical knowledge sharing while highlighting the role of technology and innovation in improving efficiency and supporting new project development.

With an expanded multi-track program and the introduction of the Roundtables Track, AOG 2026 continues to evolve into a platform designed to drive investment, strengthen partnerships and support the next phase of Angola’s oil and gas growth.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Minister Ernesto Kesar Joins Caribbean Energy Week (CEW) 2026 as Trinidad and Tobago Accelerates Upstream Momentum

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1 day ago

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March 27, 2026

By

Energy Capital

The participation of Minister Ernesto Kesar at Caribbean Energy Week comes as the country advances new upstream projects, gas developments and regional energy cooperation

PARAMARIBO, Suriname, March 27, 2026/APO Group/ –Ernesto Kesar, Minister in the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries of Trinidad and Tobago, has officially joined the upcoming Caribbean Energy Week (CEW), reinforcing the country’s commitment to upstream growth at a time of renewed momentum in the oil and gas sector.

 

As the twin-island country advances new gas supply projects, encourages exploration and strengthens regional energy ties, Minister Kesar’s participation at CEW 2026 is expected to serve as a launchpad for strengthened regional ties.

Minister Kesar’s participation comes amid a multi-billion-dollar investment surge in Trinidad and Tobago as operators advance projects, regional energy ties and strategic partnerships. At the helm of these efforts, the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries continues to prioritize upstream investment, deepwater exploration and cross-border gas projects, positioning the country as a regional hub for natural gas production and LNG exports.

Recent milestones reflect this momentum, with several projects starting production and exploration kicking off across key basins. The bpTT-led Cypre gas project achieved first gas in April 2025, with peak production estimated at 45,000 barrels per day (bpd) – translating to around 250 million standard cubic feet of gas. The project comprised seven wells and will enhance the country’s overall export capacity. In partnership with EOG Resources, the company also started production at the Mento field in 2025, featuring a 12-slot, attended facility.

Looking ahead, bp’s Ginger gas development is on track for first gas production in 2027 following FID reached in 2025. With an expected capacity of 62,000 bpd, the project will feature four subsea wells tied back to the company’s existing Mahogany B platform. The company is also evaluating development options for its Frangipani exploration well which identified multiple stacked gas reservoirs in 2025. These initiatives will not only bring additional volumes online to support LNG exports and domestic capacity, but strengthen the country’s position as a regional hub for oil and gas.

Beyond projects, Trinidad and Tobago is advancing exploration efforts with a view to strengthen its reserves. The company awarded an ultra-deepwater exploration block to ExxonMobil in 2025, signaling the company’s return to the market after nearly two decades. The milestone not only paves the way for the development of Block TTUD-1, but opens the door to nearly $20 billion in potential investment. The move follows a 2025 licensing round launched by the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries in 2025, aligning with national goals of revitalizing exploration across deepwater margins.

On a regional front, Trinidad and Tobago is streamlining cross-border collaboration. The country recently secured a license from the United States authorizing oil and gas activities with Venezuela. The approval allows Trinidad-based companies to pursue cross-border gas developments, paving the way for Venezuela to feed new gas volumes into Trinidad and Tobago’s existing LNG and processing infrastructure. The move will not only sustain gas exports but accelerate long-delayed projects such as the Dragon gas field – situated near the maritime border of the two countries.

Trinidad and Tobago is also assessing options to restart the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery, which has been closed since 2018 following the restructuring of state-owned Petrotrin. The government is currently in talks with various partners as well as Guyana to reopen the facility. If brought back online successfully, the facility would support regional energy security efforts, highlighting a strategic opportunity for global and regional investors.

As upstream momentum continues to build, the upcoming CEW 2026 offers a strategic platform to advance dialogue on regional gas monetization, energy security and investment opportunities. Minister Kesar’s participation reflects Trinidad and Tobago’s commitment to strengthening Caribbean energy ties, paving the way for new collaborations and sustained investment.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Charting Solutions in an Uncertain World

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1 day ago

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March 27, 2026

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China

CGTN’s special feature explores potential impacts of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan beyond its borders.
BEIJING, CHINA – Media OutReach Newswire – 27 March 2026 – As policymakers and business leaders convene at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, one of the most closely watched gatherings on the global calendar, attention is turning to China’s national development blueprint: the 15th Five-Year Plan. Beijing’s latest development roadmap arrives at a critical moment, as the world is grappling with geopolitical tensions, economic fragmentation and climate change. With these challenges mounting, many international observers are exploring how this blueprint will shape future development trajectories within China and beyond.
Achim Steiner, former administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, regards green transition, which takes center stage in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, as one of the defining economic shifts of the coming decades. He emphasizes that China’s leadership on renewable energy, ranging from solar panels to electric vehicles, have not only driven down global costs, but also turned technologies like EVs that were once considered “luxury and privilege” into accessible tools for people’s daily lives. He noted such a giant leap in green technology represents a frontline opportunity for transformation on the African continent, where over 600 million people still lack electricity. Steiner believes the green mindset adopted by Beijing will help many developing nations to avoid catastrophic fallout from climate change. And as certain western nations waver on climate commitments, China’s approach to addressing global warming, in contrast, provides a compelling model of a responsible nation, which suggests that green growth can be a policy priority and allow for win-win progress.

Mohd Faiz Abdullah, executive chairman of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, situates China’s development strategy within a regional context. He says that the cooperation between China and ASEAN has been contributing to regional and global growth. He described the global economic status quo as “increasingly fragmented,” adding that the key challenge is “not to help one individual economy grow,” but to achieve shared and sustained prosperity “at regional and global levels.” Such a joint task requires shared responsibility in a variety of crucial areas covered in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, including advanced manufacturing, green transition and technological upgrading. In his view, the development vision demonstrated in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan is not solely inward-looking, but also a domestic model that can convert to outward impact to the wider world. Abdullah also highlighted that China and ASEAN have already formed one of the world’s most dynamic economic partnerships, characterized by expanding investment flows and deepening integration. He believes that the continued implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will ensure ASEAN and China can work together to achieve shared economic progress for the next decade.

Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist for the World Bank, argues that while the global economy is mired in uncertainty and turbulence, China remains a rare source of stability, certainty and development momentum. Since about 2008, he noted, China has contributed roughly 30 percent of global growth, underscoring its role as a key engine of the world economy. Acknowledging that challenges are universal rather than unique to China, Lin stressed that what matters is the ability to recognize both constraints and opportunities, and to turn the latter into tangible growth. He pointed to China’s continued potential in technological innovation and industrial upgrading, supported by its large talent pool, vast domestic market, comprehensive manufacturing base and effective coordination between market forces and government policy. While external risks such as supply chain disruptions and trade tensions persist, alongside domestic pressures, including aging and regional development imbalance, Lin suggests China still holds significant growth potential, possibly around 8 percent per year through 2035, if these challenges are well managed.

In a world increasingly defined by uncertainty, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan is deemed as an important source of direction and momentum. As the country aims for a good start to its next five-year development period, seeking to advance modernization through high-quality development, major tasks still lie ahead.

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