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Global retail media ad market nears $200bn but its gold-rush era wanes as search gives way to display

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WARC

WARC releases The Future of Commerce Media 2025 examining trends, advertising investment and the impact of AI on retail media

4 November 2025 – The global retail media market retains significant momentum, with ad investment projected to surpass $200bn by 2027, per WARC Media. However, underlying this growth is an evolving industry. As brands consolidate their ad spend across fewer retail media networks and sponsored search growth slows, retailers must reinvent themselves as ‘full-funnel’ platforms offering granular display and off-site solutions, whilst preparing for the impacts of agentic commerce and AI.

Alex Brownsell, Head of Content, WARC Media, says: “Retail media has evolved from a US and China-driven trend into a global phenomenon, with European spend now growing at double the rate of the broader digital advertising market. As the sector expands beyond traditional sponsored search into visual display, audio, social, and television partnerships, it has never been more important for advertisers to have clarity on the scale and the suitability of the commerce media opportunity.”

The Future of Commerce Media 2025 examines key trends, ad investment and the impact of AI that will drive the future of retail media

Retail Media ad market nears $200bn

According to the latest WARC Media forecast, worldwide investment with retail media networks (RMNs) is set to reach $174.9bn this year, up 13.7% year-on-year, before rising a further 12.4% in 2026 to reach $196.7bn, representing 16% of all ad spend.

However, topline growth rates are steadily slowing towards single-digit levels – from 38.6% in 2021 to a forecast growth rate of 11.6% in 2027.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, says: “Retail media is rapidly evolving from a lower-funnel, search-dominated channel into a full-funnel proposition. Display advertising currently represents less than 30% of total on-site retail media spend, however, this balance is poised to shift as retail media becomes more integrated with brand digital budgets. Much may depend on the adoption of agentic AI, which threatens the high human traffic volumes that have monetised the retail media networks to date.”

A closer look at the retail media ad spend shows that:

Retail media ad investment is forecast to overtake combined linear and connected TV spend in 2026.
Spending growth from endemic brands (i.e. advertised products which are sold directly by a retailer) is decelerating.
Retail media ad spend for technology and electronics brands, the largest category, is forecast to reach $32.2bn globally in 2026, up 15.4% year-on-year.
Future growth is likely to come from display and off-site. In the first half of 2025, UK advertiser investment with display retail media increased 41.6% year-on-year, compared to a 35.6% rise in search retail media ad spend.
Quick-commerce (q-commerce) is a key area of expansion, especially in Asian markets. Instacart, Uber, Delivery Hero and DoorDash each boast annual ad businesses worth more than $1bn.
Scale will be a major determinant of retail media networks (RMN) viability in a decelerating market, as brands become more discerning about where to place commerce media investments.
Tariff concerns boosted retail media spend in H1 2025, particularly in Europe, as brands pulled budgets forward in fear of disruptions.

Commerce media is emerging as a full-funnel proposition

Commerce media is emerging as a full-funnel solution, with more ad formats and channels to complement granular first-party data. A recent survey by ad-tech company Infillion found that two in five (40%) of agency-side executives who buy retail media see it as a full-funnel solution, and another 7% agreed it is an upper-funnel opportunity.

But new strategies and definitions of success will be needed to help this channel escape from a tight focus on narrow, lower-funnel conversion and from relying on siloed metrics like ROAS.

There are a growing number of retail media channels and ad formats that can support truly full-funnel strategies. CTV, off-site, digital out-of-home, and in-store advertising can enable brands to execute full-funnel strategies that bridge digital and physical shopping experiences.

Best practices from other channels, especially around the need to use more media options and run longer campaigns, also apply to retail media.

Amazon aspires to dominate open web advertising

Amazon, the world’s largest commerce media seller, continues to dominate the commerce media landscape, maintaining 15% year-on-year growth, per WARC Media, through its full-funnel expansion and strategic demand-side-platform (DSP) partnerships.

Inventory partners now include Roku, enabling advertisers to reach an estimated 80m US connected TV households, and big hitters like Disney, Netflix, Spotify and Microsoft. Amazon claims its ad-supported monthly reach in the US has tipped over 300 million, while eight in 10 UK households can be reached with Amazon DSP.

Research by Skai found that more than 20% of all ad investment with Amazon is now allocated to its demand-side-platform (DSP) – double the share recorded two years ago – as advertisers look for greater efficiency.

Agentic AI commerce arrives

Agentic AI commerce – shopping powered by AI agents – is generating significant hype as the future of online shopping. The total addressable market for agentic commerce has an estimated value of $136bn in 2025 and has been forecast to grow to hit a potential $1.7trn by 2030, according to Edgar, Dunn & Company.

Test-and-learn strategies could be useful, but it will be essential to meet real consumer needs, not just develop new tech tools with no strategic purpose. The lessons of adapting to past innovations can be put to good use in thinking about how, when and where to potentially deploy agentic commerce

When using agentic tools, it is important to view results in a holistic way. Narrow metrics are not reliable success indicators. Whilst it could be tempting to over-credit AI tools for sales, many inputs, from brand equity to emotion-led creative and seasonality, also have a role.

The Future of Commerce Media 2025 is based on data and insights from WARC and external research. WARC members can read the full report. A deep-dive podcast into the report will follow.

 

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Nigeria’s Upstream Reform Program Captures 40% of Africa’s Final Investment Decision (FID) Activity After a Decade on the Margins

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African Energy Chamber

A government three-year review documents how executive action under President Tinubu reversed a decade of upstream decline

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Nigeria has gone from capturing 4% of Africa’s upstream final investment decisions (FIDs) to commanding 40% in two years, according to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen. The $50 billion project pipeline now in development beyond 2026 points to sustained capital commitment at a scale not seen in the Nigerian upstream for at least a decade.

 

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria was among the continent’s weakest performers for upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second-largest endowment in Africa. Algeria captured 44% of African upstream FIDs during that period, Angola held 26%, while Nigeria trailed Mozambique, Ghana, Senegal and Namibia. In the third quarter of 2022, crude production briefly dropped below one million barrels per day, as years of underinvestment, pipeline vandalism and regulatory ambiguity compounded each other. However, reforms instituted by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu have dramatically turned this trend around. Through deliberate and coordinated steps, the government has reset the trajectory.

Addressing Fiscal Terms, Regulatory Scope and Contracting Speed

President Bola Tinubu’s administration moved simultaneously on fiscal terms and regulatory architecture. Policy directives in 2023 clarified the boundary of jurisdiction between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), resolving an ambiguity that had complicated project sanctioning. Presidential Directive 40 introduced targeted tax incentives, and a separate Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Production in 2024 was designed to draw international oil companies (IOCs) back into capital-intensive, long-cycle deepwater projects. The VAT Modification Order 2024 and Upstream Cost Efficiency Order 2025 addressed the cost structures that had rendered marginal projects uneconomic. NNPCL contracting timelines were compressed from 36 months to a maximum of six months.

Four Divestments Transferred Onshore Control to Indigenous Operators

In parallel, the administration deployed targeted security directives and accelerated ministerial consents for four IOC asset transfers. Renaissance acquired Shell’s onshore portfolio. Seplat Energy completed its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian upstream interests. Oando took over from Agip, and Chappal acquired Equinor’s local assets. The four transactions totaled approximately $4 billion. The transfer of onshore and shallow-water blocks to indigenous operators contributed directly to production recovery. Output rose by approximately 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2025 to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest onshore production level in 20 years.

When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds

Signed Projects Total $10 Billion, With a $50 Billion Pipeline Beyond

The reforms produced a concrete FID response from Shell and TotalEnergies. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) sanctioned the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024 and committed a further $2 billion to the HI Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project. TotalEnergies and NNPCL took a joint FID on the $550 million Ubeta gas field development in June 2024.

Together those three commitments account for more than $10 billion in signed investment after a decade of near-zero sanctioning activity. The pipeline beyond 2026 spans a further $50 billion across 11 projects including Bonga South West, Owowo, Usan and Erha. Nigeria approved 28 field development plans valued at $18.2 billion in 2025 alone, targeting an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves.

“When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Nigeria has done both, and the FID numbers are concrete proof.”

The Counterfactual Illustrates How Much Was at Stake

The presentation includes a no-reform projection that puts the gains in context. Without intervention, total crude and condensate production was on track to fall from 1.371 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 to 579,000 by 2030. Under the reform trajectory, output reached 1.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with a stated government target of 3 million barrels per day. Export gas utilization rose 39% over the same period, while domestic utilization grew by 7%.

The durability of these gains will be tested by two factors: whether the institutional architecture put in place under the Tinubu administration holds over the long term, and whether the deepwater commitments signed in 2024 and 2025 advance to execution on schedule. The project pipeline is large enough that partial delivery would still represent a generational shift in Nigeria’s upstream output profile.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Angola Strengthens Global Investment Drive Across Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources

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Angola

With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership

LONDON, United Kingdom, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –At a defining moment in Angola’s economic transformation, the Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG) (https://CMAGAfrica.com), together with the Government of Angola and the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Petroleum and Gas of the Republic of Angola (MIREMPET), will convene global investors, policymakers, and industry leaders in London for the Angola Oil, Gas & Mining Investment Conference on 14 May 2026.

 

More than a conference, this gathering represents a strategic international engagement at a time when Angola is actively reshaping its economic future and positioning itself as one of Africa’s most compelling destinations for long-term investment in natural resources, infrastructure, and industrial development.

With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership. The country’s leadership is sending a clear message to global markets: Angola is open for investment and ready to build transformational partnerships that support sustainable growth and economic diversification.

This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future

The event will be headlined by H.E. Diamantino Azevedo, Minister for Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas of Angola, whose leadership since 2017 has been central to advancing Angola’s mineral and hydrocarbons agenda. Under his stewardship, Angola has accelerated institutional reform, strengthened governance frameworks, promoted private sector participation, and prioritised sustainable resource development.

As global demand intensifies for critical minerals, energy security, and resilient supply chains, Angola is uniquely positioned to become a strategic partner to international investors and industrial economies. The country’s vast untapped mineral wealth, significant oil and gas reserves, expanding infrastructure ambitions, and commitment to economic diversification present a rare investment window for global stakeholders.

Speaking ahead of the event, Veronica Bolton Smith, CEO of the Critical Minerals Africa Group said:

“Angola stands at a pivotal point in its national development. The reforms taking place across the country’s extractive sectors are creating unprecedented opportunities for responsible international investment and strategic partnership. This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future as a globally competitive investment destination. We believe this moment represents one of the most important opportunities for international partners to engage with Angola’s leadership and participate in the country’s next chapter of economic transformation.”

The event is expected to attract a distinguished international audience, including sovereign representatives, institutional investors, mining and energy executives, infrastructure developers, development finance institutions, and strategic partners seeking direct engagement with Angola’s leadership.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG).

 

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The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group Successfully Concludes Private Sector Roadshow in Baku

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Islamic Development Bank

Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan

BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 7, 2026/APO Group/ –The Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB) affiliates (www.IsDB.org) – namely the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), and the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) – in cooperation with the Islamic Development Bank Group Business Forum (THIQAH), organized the “IsDB Group Private Sector Roadshow” in Baku, Azerbaijan, in close collaboration with the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Export and Investment Promotion Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan (AZPROMO).

 

The high-profile event which took place on Thursday, 7th May 2026, at Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy, came as part of ongoing preparations for the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings and Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026), scheduled to take place from 16 to 19 June 2026, under the high patronage of His Excellency President Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

 

Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan. It highlighted the Group’s ongoing support for private sector development and its efforts to stimulate promising investment and trade opportunities in the Azerbaijani market.

 

The event also served as a unique opportunity inviting the audience to participate actively in IsDB Group Annual Meetings and the Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026). The program included panel discussions and specialized workshops on ways to enhance economic partnerships and the role of IsDB Group’s institutions in supporting the needs of member countries. The spectra of services, solutions and financial tools were also presented, including lines and modes of Islamic financing, trade finance and trade development solutions, corporate private sector financing, as well as risk mitigation solutions plus investment insurance and export credit insurance services.

 

Keynote speakers, in their speeches, underlined strong commitment to deepening engagement with the private sector and fostering meaningful partnerships that drive sustainable economic growth in light of the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings in Baku, all to showcase integrated solutions especially in Islamic finance, trade, investment, and risk mitigation while working closely and collectively with private sector partners to unlock new opportunities, support innovation, and empower businesses contributing to inclusive and resilient development across IsDB Group member countries.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB Group).

 

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