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Global ad market prospects further downgraded as retailers, automakers cut ad budgets and Chinese brands redirect spend due to US trade tariffs

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11 months ago

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Global ad market

Growth forecasts for advertising spend have been downgraded further this year (-0.5pp to +6.2%) following an initial $20bn cut in March

Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are expected to cut ad budgets in the wake of mounting tariff pressures on supply chains

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 54.7% excluding China this year – equivalent to $524.4bn – rising to 56.2% in 2026

US ad market prospects cut by half a point to +5.2% as Chinese retailers such as Temu and Shein redirect spend to Canada, Australia and Europe

Global ad market growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5% next year, with a total of $1.23trn equivalent to almost $150 per capita

WARC Global Ad Forecast Q2 2025 update: Growth cut amid trade trepidations

12 June 2025 – A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is now on course to grow 6.2% this year to $1.16trn, a downgrade of half a percentage point (pp) from WARC’s March forecast due to growing market volatility. Key sectors such as retail (-6.1%) and automotive (-4.0%) are set to cut ad spend this year, while ad spend growth across technology and CPG brands is muted compared to previous rates.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, and author of the research, says: “The latest downgrade is attributable to a reticence to commit ad budgets across key markets in the second quarter. This cooling is underpinned by tariff trepidations and ebbing business and consumer confidence, prompting advertisers to front-load budgets and reallocate spend geographically, particularly towards Canada, Australia, and Europe.

“Trade tensions are forcing major sectors to rethink their ad strategies. Automakers are cutting back amid rising costs and a pivot to performance media, while retailers tighten budgets as tariffs squeeze margins. Tech firms face growing uncertainty despite continued investment, and CPG brands are leaning into retail media as supply chains come under pressure. Across the board, agility is the new imperative.”

WARC’s latest global projections are based on data aggregated from 100 markets worldwide, and leverage a proprietary neural network which projects advertising investment patterns based on over two million data points.

Key media outlook: AI propels Alphabet, Amazon and Meta to 54.7% market share outside of China

Search to account for more than a fifth (21.5%) of the ad market this year, with spend rising 7.4% to $248.6bn despite regulatory threats
Social media – the largest single advertising medium globally – is poised to account for a quarter (25.8%) of all ad spend this year, at a total of $298.3bn
Retail media set to be fastest growing advertising medium this year (+14.4%), though trade disruption threatens ad receipts from consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands

Pure play internet – encompassing social media, retail media, online display, online classified and paid search – grew 11.5% in the first quarter of 2025 to $195.2bn, equivalent to 70.8% of all global ad spend. The growth rate is expected to ease to 9.9% during the second quarter and 8.9% over the second half of the year – to an annual total of $829.2bn (+9.8% vs. 2024).

The pure play internet sector is on course to top $1trn in ad revenue in 2028, by when it would account for almost 80% of all advertising spend. Alphabet, Meta and Amazon’s combined share of advertising spend outside of China is expected to reach 54.7% this year (+1.8pp vs. 2024) with an aggregated total of $524.4bn. This share is set to rise further – to 56.2% – next year.

Within the pure play internet total, search advertising spend is forecast to rise 7.4% this year and 6.8% next, by when the market would be worth $265.5bn – equivalent to 21.5% of all spend, up from 21.2% in 2024.

Within the paid search total, Google’s expected $213.3bn take would account for 85.8% of the market this year. The embedding of artificial intelligence into the search journey stands to disrupt ad revenue models, but Google’s dominance in search advertising will likely persist in the near term, aided by SMEs.

Social media is now set to account for over a quarter of all ad spend this year. A strong first quarter rise of 14.9% precedes an expected slowdown, with growth averaging 11.2% over the coming three quarters as tariffs begin to impact Asian brands disproportionally. The social market is still on track to grow 12.0% to $298.3bn this year.

​​Meta last month outlined plans for an end-to-end AI solution covering the generation of creative, ad placement and performance optimisation – primarily for its long tail of small advertisers rather than large brands. Meta’s ad business is forecast to grow 12.6% to $142.1bn this year, a cooling from the 18.4% rise recorded in 2024.

Retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing medium tracked by WARC this year, with an anticipated rise of 14.4% to a total value of $176.2bn. This represents a 15.2% share of global ad spend this year.

Amazon’s retail media ad business grew 21.0% to $13.3bn during the first quarter, accounting for a third (33.4%) of the global retail media market. WARC projects Amazon’s ad income will grow by 16.1% to $60.6bn this year. A further rise, of 14.9%, is forecast next year, giving Amazon a 35.4% of global retail media spend and 5.7% of all advertising spend worldwide. Like other online retailers, Amazon is exposed to tariffs imposed on its Chinese sellers, thought to be well over half of all vendors on the platform.

Global video advertising spend is forecast to decline by 2.6% in 2025 to $183.9bn, equating to 15.9% of all spend this year. The contraction is driven by a continued decline in linear TV, which still represents over three-quarters of the total video market.

Linear TV spend is expected to fall by 6.3% this year – a drop exacerbated by 2024 major sporting and political events. Notably, 2025 marks the first year that retail media will command a greater share of global ad spend than linear TV.

Video-on-demand (VOD) advertising is forecast to rise by 13.2% to $39.9bn, a downgrade from the 15.4% projected in March. Within this, Netflix is due to see ad billings double this year (from a small base) due to the relative resilience of its ad tier during economic downturns.

Key product sector trends: Tariff trepidations hit retailers and automakers

Automotive ad spend down 4.0% this year as manufacturing stalls and key players pare back on brand building
Retailers set to reduce ad spend by 6.1% as margins tighten; US retailers are vulnerable to disruption among Chinese suppliers
Ad growth set to slow markedly among tech & electronic and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands as barriers to trade impair access to components

The automotive industry invested $56.8bn in advertising last year with almost a quarter (22.9%) going to premium video formats. However, budgets are shifting from video towards digital platforms, with automotive spend on social ads surpassing linear TV for the first time in 2025.

Despite WARC’s projected 4.0% cut in automotive advertising spend this year (an improvement on the 7.3% originally projected in March), the sector should rebound next year with a 7.5% rise pushing spend to a total of $58.6bn.

Retail, with projected ad spend of $166.1bn this year (14.3% of the global ad market), faces a fall of 6.1% from 2024 levels. This largely reflects impending US trade tariffs on key goods and raw materials, which are poised to increase costs for global retailers, particularly those heavily reliant on Chinese imports such as Amazon and Walmart.

Retailers are set to accelerate shifts in marketing strategies in response to changing cost structures and consumer behaviour. As predicted in March, large Chinese retailers targeting US consumers – including Temu and Shein – have reallocated advertising spend to other markets such as Canada, Australia and Europe.

The tech and electronics sector is expected to spend $90.3bn on advertising this year. This year-on-year rise of 5.5% represents a cut from our +6.2% forecast in March, and is a sharp slowdown from the 24.3% rise recorded last year. Tariffs are driving the sector to adjust go-to-market strategies, shifting investments toward less-affected regions or different product lines to buffer against hardware margin erosion.

Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) companies experienced their weakest first quarter sales revenues since the pandemic. Further, with tariffs reaching as high as 145% for Chinese imports and additional tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, CPG companies are facing major disruption to their established supply chains.

WARC expects core CPG sectors, such as soft drinks (+7.1%), toiletries & cosmetics (+7.2%) and household & domestic (+4.2%) to record growth in advertising spend at a global level this year, though all see a significant slowdown from 2024. Taken together, the CPG sector is expected to increase advertising spend by 6.7% this year to a total of $200.5bn.

Key market outlook: US growth prospects cut as Chinese brands look elsewhere

US ad market expected to post a +5.2% rise this year, less than half that recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and has been cut by half a point since March
Canadian ad spend growth set to ease to 3.5% this year despite some Chinese advertisers redirecting spend from the US
The Chinese ad market continues to struggle with weak domestic demand; growth is set to slow to 7.2% this year
The UK, German, French and Japanese economies are all stalling and present a severe risk of stagflation over the forecast period

WARC’s latest forecast suggests the US ad market will grow 5.2% this year to $451.6bn, half the growth rate recorded in 2024 (+13.5%) and representing a 0.5 point downgrade from our March forecast. The US ad market – the largest worldwide with a 39.0% share – faces major headwinds including tariff uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, lower consumer demand and stagflation.

Despite a strong first quarter performance – +7.6% to $105.7bn, boosted by Chinese brands accelerating spend ahead of the anticipated tariff changes – US ad market growth is expected to slow significantly through to year-end.

Chinese brands appear to be redirecting ad spend to Canada to negate US market barriers, yet Canadian ad growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year amid deteriorating economic conditions. The IMF had downgraded Canada’s GDP growth forecast by 0.6pp to 1.4%, with the Bank of Canada projecting growth rate to approximately +0.5% in 2025.

Digital platforms dominate Canada’s media landscape, projected to capture 77.6% of the total market this year. This digital transformation stems from granular targeting capabilities drawing advertisers away from traditional media, with retail media now fuelling additional growth.

China is experiencing significant structural shifts, characterised by increasingly price-conscious consumers and a digital ecosystem dominated by major players including ByteDance (Douyin), Alibaba, and Tencent, creating challenges for smaller platforms. Short-form video has become instrumental in brand promotion in China, while marketers are prioritising performance marketing over brand building initiatives.

Projected US tariffs are expected to dull China’s economic growth by 0.2 points in 2025, creating economic uncertainty and prompting a downward revision of our 2025 advertising growth expectations to 7.2% (from 8.3% in March). The outlook for 2026 has been upgraded to 7.9% growth (from 6.9%), reflecting the online sector’s resilience.

The AA/WARC Expenditure Report forecast for the UK ad market stands at +6.5% in 2025, to a total of £44.3bn ($54.7bn). The highly digitalised UK market sees online ads accounting for over four in five (84.6%) dollars this year, with social (+13.1% this year) and search (+8.2%) fuelling growth despite weak economic prospects.

Germany’s economy is also struggling, at just +0.4% expected growth by the OECD this year following a cut of 0.3pp from its last outlook. WARC forecasts a modest 2.9% rise in German advertising spend to €26.4bn ($29.5bn). Growth in France’s ad market is also set to be muted this year, at +2.7% to €18.8bn ($20.3bn). Japan faces a challenging outlook, too, with advertising spend expected to rise by 3.3% to ¥5.8trn ($39.0bn) this year.

 

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Africa Energy Forum 2026: Building Africa’s Industrialised Future

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4 hours ago

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May 14, 2026

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energy

Cape Town to host continent’s largest energy gathering as focus shifts from aspiration to execution

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, May 13, 2026/APO Group/ –The Africa Energy Forum (https://apo-opa.co/4ugdl9y) returns from 16-19 June 2026, bringing together the companies, investors and governments driving Africa’s move from energy access to industrial-scale infrastructure.

The companies gathering in Cape Town are deploying capital into transmission infrastructure, building mining corridors that will define trade routes for decades, financing baseload capacity that can power heavy industry, and developing renewable projects that will anchor Africa’s manufacturing future. Forum Sponsor Sun Africa leads a group of sponsors whose projects and investments are already shaping how the continent builds its industrial base.

“I am looking forward to joining the conversation in Cape Town this June. What excites me about this year’s Summit is the calibre of capital and commitment in the room — companies that are financing baseload capacity for heavy industry, building mining corridors that will define trade routes for decades, and deploying renewable projects that will anchor Africa’s manufacturing future. That is the kind of long-term, structural thinking that Sun Africa has always believed this continent deserves, and it is exactly the conversation we need to be having.” Sun Africa, CEO, Adam Cortese.

ACWA Power, Infinity Power and AMEA Power are building gigawatt-scale renewable capacity across the continent. Globeleq and TotalEnergies are financing and operating projects that demonstrate how private capital can deliver industrial-grade infrastructure. British International Investment and IFC are structuring deals that blend concessional and commercial finance to unlock sovereign wealth fund participation. Nedbank CIB is providing the sustainable finance structures that allow projects to reach financial close.

“As Africa moves from aspiration to execution, this year’s agenda focuses on the hardware of industrialisation – the steel, concrete and transmission lines that will define Africa’s industrial future,” said Simon Gosling, Managing Director of EnergyNet.

The companies driving this shift face common challenges: structuring bankable projects where perceived risk exceeds actual performance, moving critical minerals from extraction to processing, building transmission corridors that serve both mines and cities, and deploying patient capital into long-term infrastructure.

As Africa moves from aspiration to execution, this year’s agenda focuses on the hardware of industrialisation – the steel, concrete and transmission lines

Cape Town provides the right setting. South Africa is navigating private transmission investment, energy trading, mining-driven renewable deployment, and tensions between industrial growth and climate commitments – challenges the rest of the continent will face. The city’s reforms offer a live case study.

The agenda reflects where these companies are focusing their resources. Critical minerals receive a two-day dedicated stream exploring downstream processing, transport corridors and value capture from reserves representing over 30% of global supply. Sessions examine the Lobito Corridor, Liberty Corridor and Simandou infrastructure as models for large-scale project finance.

Transmission and baseload themes address grid expansion, private investment structures and 24/7 availability for data centres and manufacturing. Energy trading sessions explore how sponsors are transforming project finance through creditworthy off-take, whole technology discussions will cover AI for revenue protection, data centre supply chains and CBAM compliance.

More broadly, the forum structure supports deal-making. The speaker programme includes closed-door roundtables bringing together DFIs, sovereign wealth funds, Middle East ministers, utilities, regulators and the private sector for frank discussions on capital deployment.

This will bring together senior public and private sector leadership, with notable speakers including H.E. Honourable Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity & Energy, South Africa; H.E. Honourable Samantha Graham-Marè, Deputy Minister of Electricity & Energy, South Africa; Dan Marokane, GCE, Eskom, South Africa; H.E. Honourable Jeremiah Kpan Koung, Vice President, Liberia; H.E. Honourable Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity & Energy, South Africa; H.E. Honourable Lerato Mataboge, African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy; Precious Edward, Head, IPP Office, South Africa; Obaïd Amrane, CEO, Ithmar Capital, Morocco, Chair, Africa Sovereign Investors Forum (ASIF) & Chair, International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds (IFSWF); Mike Teke, Group CEO, Seriti Resources; and Jonathan Hoffman, CEO, Globeleq.

Regional fireside chats, meanwhile, will spotlight opportunities across North, East, South and West Africa. Day One features ministerial sessions with participation from Sierra Leone’s Ministry of Energy and The Gambia’s Ministry of Environment, Climate Change & Natural Resources.

Additional sponsors driving the programme include AKSA as Exhibitor Sponsor, with lead sponsor support from Synergy Consulting, ATIDI, Engie, European Investment Bank, Standard Bank, Red Rocket, USP&E Global and Sungrow.

On the final day, YES! (Youth Energy Summit) takes place as part of the aef stream under the theme ‘Empowering Today’s Entrepreneurs – Building Tomorrow’s Industrialists’. Here, impact leaders will present scalable initiatives creating entrepreneurship opportunities in Africa’s energy sector, while industry partners lead interactive workshops building practical skills for 600 young people in attendance.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of EnergyNet Ltd..

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Canon Introduces Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA)-Compliant Authenticity Imaging System for News Organisations

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4 hours ago

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May 14, 2026

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Canon

Canon’s Authenticity Imaging System reliably embeds provenance information into images at the point of capture as the foundation for authenticity, thereby enabling verification of content history throughout the workflow

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates, May 13, 2026/APO Group/ –Canon Inc. (www.Canon-CNA.com) and Canon Europe Ltd. announced today that Canon will roll out its Authenticity Imaging System for supported models in May 2026 initially in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA)1. This system is a comprehensive solution based on the C2PA2 (Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity) standard to manage image provenance records, issue certificates, apply trusted timestamps and verify content history. Designed for images captured with C2PA-enabled3 cameras, specifically the EOS R1 and EOS R5 Mark II, the system helps support the preservation of provenance information from the point of capture onward, in accordance with each organisation’s editorial and technical workflows.

 

As generative AI technologies continue to advance, image manipulation and the spread of fake images have emerged as significant societal challenges. News organisations are increasingly expected to clearly demonstrate the provenance of the images they publish to ensure their authenticity. Canon joined C2PA and the Content Authenticity Initiative (CAI)4 in 2023 and has since been advancing the research and implementation of provenance management technologies based on international standards. Canon’s Authenticity Imaging System reliably embeds provenance information into images at the point of capture as the foundation for authenticity, thereby enabling verification of content history throughout the workflow, from initial intake through editing, distribution and publication.

The solution uses manifest information5 generated by C2PA-compatible cameras as its starting point, issuing public certificates and applying timestamps from trusted time-stamping authorities to help maintain verifiable provenance records over time. It provides an environment in which provenance information, including records added during editing and distribution processes, can be verified at the time of publication. This is designed to enhance transparency in how images are handled in news operations, accommodating both speed and authenticity in photojournalism.

Ahead of the official launch, Reuters, the global news organisation, collaborated with Canon on initial technical enablement and specific testing of C2PA cameras. Using the EOS R1 and EOS R5 Mark II with the Image Authenticity feature enabled, Reuters found that authenticated provenance data could be generated reliably.

Canon will continue to support the assurance of image authenticity in news organisations through its Authenticity Imaging System while also exploring expansion into a wide range of fields where authenticity is critical, including government, healthcare, and research. In addition, Canon will work toward the broader adoption of international standards such as C2PA by collaborating with related organisations and partners and further advancing provenance management technologies.

For more information, please visit the Authenticity Imaging System website: https://apo-opa.co/42yWNNH

1. Launch dates differ by country and region.

2. C2PA is an organisation which develops technical standards for establishing content provenance and authenticity of digital content.

3. C2PA functionality requires paid activation.

4. CAI is an organisation that promotes the adoption of C2PA, for example by recording content provenance in compliance with C2PA and providing open-source tools to verify that content.

5. Refers to metadata (such as capture date and time, location, equipment used, and camera settings) which is assigned a digital signature to prevent post-capture alteration. The date and time of capture are recorded based on the camera’s internal clock and are therefore not guaranteed to exactly match the actual date and time of capture.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Canon Central and North Africa (CCNA).

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Driving Africa’s Fair Energy Transition Through Technology and Innovation (By Prof. Bart O. Nnaji)

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4 hours ago

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May 14, 2026

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Africa

According to the International Energy Agency, Africa needs about $90 billion annually to achieve a successful energy transition, but current funding falls short

Africa must not embrace renewable energy primarily when they have abundance of fossil fuel for their industrialization

ABUJA, Nigeria, May 13, 2026/APO Group/ —By Prof. Bart O. Nnaji FAS, FA Eng. CON, NNOM – Founder/Chairman, Geometric Power Limited and former Nigerian Minister of Power.

 

Africa’s energy journey is often portrayed as a stark choice between climate responsibility and development. In reality, the continent faces a more nuanced challenge: finding a fair, gradual energy transition that matches its unique needs and ambitions. Technology and innovation can drive this change, helping secure affordable and sustainable energy for all.

In the coming decades, Africa’s population is expected to soar to nearly 2.5 billion. Cities will grow. Industries will expand. Digital connections will multiply. The demand for energy will increase significantly. Right now, expecting Africa to abandon fossil fuels overnight is neither realistic nor fair. In the near future, fossil fuels remain crucial for base power that is reliable, and affordable. In particular, natural gas is key transition fuel that will remain the base power solution for the next decade. Africa must not embrace renewable energy primarily when they have abundance of fossil fuel for their industrialization as other emerging and emerged nations have done. A just energy transition recognises these realities and seeks ways to build cleaner, more resilient systems over time.

Technology as the Enabler of Africa’s Energy Future

Exciting new technologies are already reshaping Africa’s energy landscape:

  • Decentralised solutions, like mini-grids, off-grid solar, and batteries, bring electricity to places traditional grids can’t reach. By 2030, these distributed renewables could provide most new connections in underserved communities.
  • Smart grids and AI-driven management can reduce waste. They help utilities serve people better.
  • Modern batteries ensure that solar and wind energy can be delivered steadily, even when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing.

Decentralised approaches are essential to Africa’s path toward universal energy access. While technology is not a fix-all solution, it is a crucial enabler of efficiency, resilience, and affordability, shaping Africa’s energy future.

African entrepreneurs are leading much of this change. They’re developing solutions that meet local needs, such as pay-as-you-go solar, community-run mini-grids, and mobile payment platforms. These innovations don’t just bring power; they create jobs, build skills, and reap economic benefits for the continent.

But innovation alone isn’t enough. Investment is critical. According to the International Energy Agency, Africa needs about $90 billion annually to achieve a successful energy transition, but current funding falls short. Governments can help by setting clear, supportive policies that attract investment and make projects more affordable. Organisations like the African Development Bank say grid investment must rise dramatically, and clean energy spending should double by 2030 to keep up with growing demand.

From Energy Access to Economic and Human Impact

Reliable energy is more than just a technical necessity – it’s what fuels industrial growth. Picture the continent’s factories buzzing with activity, transport networks connecting people and goods, and data centres powering a vibrant digital economy.

Expanding decentralised solutions brings light to places that have been left in the dark for too long. It’s about giving children a place to study at night, helping clinics store vaccines safely, and empowering entrepreneurs to launch new businesses.

Of course, none of this works in isolation. Supportive policies, strong regulations, and partnerships between governments and private companies are essential. When African countries harmonise their rules and work together, they can create bigger markets. This draws even more investment and innovation.

Ultimately, Africa’s energy transition must be shaped by Africans themselves. The path forward is about collaboration, pragmatism, and investing in homegrown solutions. Africa’s mobile phone revolution showed the world how quickly the continent can leapfrog old systems. The same can happen with energy; by embracing flexible, tech-driven models that serve today’s and tomorrow’s needs.

Now is the time to come together to act boldly and invest in Africa’s energy future. By uniting efforts, we can turn potential into progress, ensuring resilient, inclusive, and sustainable energy for generations to come. Let’s power Africa’s future, together.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Prof. Bart O. Nnaji.

 

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