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South Africa can Realize its Gas Potential with a Balanced Gas-to-Liquids Strategy (By NJ Ayuk)

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African Energy Chamber

South Africa’s gas potential is currently locked up, partly because of legal challenges initiated by environmental activist groups that halted projects to the tune of USD1.6 billion, but also due to the inability of all parties involved to come to an agreement

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, November 13, 2025/APO Group/ —By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (https://EnergyChamber.org/)

 

It is not an exaggeration to say that South Africa’s offshore gas discoveries offer up a potential economic transformation for the country that would be on par with Guyana’s oil-driven boom or Suriname’s emerging energy sector.

Estimates for the Luiperd-Brulpadda gas-condensate project, in Block 11B/12B off South Africa’s southern coast, gauge its holdings at 3.4 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and 192 million barrels of gas condensate. Production at this site would equate to thousands of jobs and a revitalization of regions like Mossel Bay, where South Africa’s gas-to-liquids refinery once fueled local employment and industry before declining production forced cutbacks.

Unfortunately, this could all be just wishful thinking, as TotalEnergies’ exit from this project in 2024 revealed a critical barrier.

South Africa’s gas potential is currently locked up, partly because of legal challenges initiated by environmental activist groups that halted projects to the tune of USD1.6 billion, but also due to the inability of all parties involved to come to an agreement on gas purchase pricing.

The GTL Solution 

A gas-to-liquids (GTL) strategy — one that links prices to liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot markets and includes meaningful community engagement — would help balance the needs of upstream investors, downstream users, and the coastal communities while delivering sustainable growth for the rest of the nation.

The gas pricing dilemma is the main obstacle.

Upstream companies like TotalEnergies demand dollar-based contracts to mitigate currency risk and ensure returns on their substantial exploration investments. The South African government is justifiably wary of dollar-denominated agreements and would prefer rand-based prices to protect local consumers and maintain affordability. The impasse TotalEnergies encountered on this issue is one of the factors behind their withdrawal from Block 11B/12B, despite their promising, hard-won discoveries at the site.

 

The domestic market complicates the situation even further.

Electricity producers require low gas prices, as they operate on slim margins once carbon costs are accounted for. Upstream operators, on the other hand, need to collect higher prices to justify the development of their capital-intensive deepwater projects. Meanwhile, the global LNG market is expected to remain saturated for the next three to five years, making the export of gas in the form of LNG a less competitive option for now. Without a pricing compromise, South Africa’s gas remains untapped, leaving behind all the profit and opportunity it represents.

For South Africa to truly benefit from its gas resources, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration must move beyond the traditional focus on coal and mining

A GTL strategy offers a multifaceted solution, however. By revitalizing the PetroSA GTL facility in Mossel Bay and converting natural gas into high-value liquid fuels like diesel and kerosene on site, South Africa could cut its reliance on fuel imports, strengthen its energy security, and extend employment opportunities to thousands of workers.

The precedent is clear: In Suriname, TotalEnergies’ GranMorgu deepwater project is set to generate 6,000 local jobs and inject at least USD1 billion into the economy. A similar initiative at the dormant Mossel Bay facility could transform South Africa’s southern coast, providing the government with fresh revenue and wider economic stability.

This is not mere optimism; this gameplan would be a practical means of leveraging existing infrastructure to drive regional development. But, once again, the economic viability of a GTL strategy as a solution for South African gas production hinges on securing a gas pricing agreement that satisfies the needs of both producers and consumers.

To resolve this pricing stalemate, South Africa should adopt a formula that ties the gas purchase price to the global LNG spot price, minus a percentage to reflect the absence of liquefaction and transportation costs. This approach would allow upstream companies to receive dollar-based payments, satisfying their financial requirements while aligning with the inherent shifts in the global market. Downstream, power producers and GTL operators would enjoy the affordability of discounted pricing, making projects economically feasible at both ends of the supply chain.

Furthermore, the government could incentivize GTL development through tax breaks, infrastructure subsidies, or public-private partnerships, so the economic benefits of these projects would be more likely to outweigh the initial costs. This pricing model would be a fair compromise that avoids the pitfalls of rand-based contracts and meets the needs of all stakeholders.

Additional Roadblocks

Overcoming environmental opposition is another critical step toward progress in gas development, and overlooking community engagement in this regard only empowers non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to challenge projects in court. Petroleum Agency SA’s community awareness campaigns, which educate locals about the benefits and risks of gas development, offer a model for improvement in this area. Expanding such efforts to include early and transparent engagement in the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process would help build trust and reduce grounds for legal action.

Town hall meetings and accessible EIA summaries would be a means of highlighting the economic benefits of a GTL strategy. By involving communities as stakeholders, the government and industry can work together to demonstrate that gas development can create shared prosperity.

The implementation of a GTL strategy is itself another way of addressing the legal pushback brought against South African exploration projects. Liquid fuels produced domestically reduce emissions by avoiding long-distance shipping, meaning that a GTL strategy is already in alignment with environmental goals from the start. Emphasizing the lower carbon footprint of a GTL operation would go a long way in gaining public approval of the project, but the government must still work to speed up the permitting process by establishing clear, time-bound guidelines for EIAs and consultations. Mechanisms should also be put in place to limit repetitive, post-approval legal challenges and allow projects to proceed without endless litigation.

A dedicated task force of industry, government, and local representatives would strengthen South Africa’s negotiating power and help hold projects accountable to environmental and social standards.

A Collaborative Path Forward 

Extracting and monetizing the gas resources held in Block 11B/12B and elsewhere could be a course-correcting game-changer for South Africa, but doing so to the greatest possible benefit requires bold, collaborative action. For South Africa to truly benefit from its gas resources, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration must move beyond the traditional focus on coal and mining, prioritize gas development, and embrace the potential of a GTL strategy.

By reviving the defunct Mossel Bay GTL facility and implementing a pricing model tied to LNG spot prices, the government can satisfy the needs of both upstream and downstream stakeholders while creating jobs for South Africans and reducing their dependency on imports. Simplifying the permit process and expanding community engagement would address environmental concerns so that projects can move forward without unnecessary delays or lawsuits.

With decisive leadership and a commitment to balance, South Africa can transform its gas potential into a catalyst for sustainable growth and secure a prosperous future, not just for the industry, but for the nation as a whole.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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South Africa’s Orange Basin Gains Momentum as Navitas Takes Block 1 CBK Operatorship

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The African Energy Chamber backs Navitas and Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas’ Block 1 CBK partnership, which stands to strengthen prospects for domestic energy investment

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Following regulatory approval from the South African government, Navitas Petroleum has assumed operatorship of Block 1 CBK offshore South Africa. This follows Eco Atlantic’s completion of a farm-down of a 37.5% working interest in the license to Navitas.

 




  

The deal provides the Atlantic Margins explorer’s partner with one of the Orange Basin’s largest exploration blocks. The frontier region has drawn major industry players including Shell, TotalEnergies, bp, and Galp since play-opening discoveries offshore Namibia started transforming the area’s upstream landscape in 2022.

The African Energy Chamber (AEC) welcomes the completion of Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas’ farm-down in Block 1 CBK. As the voice of the African energy sector, the Chamber views the transaction as an important step in advancing exploration and unlocking the country’s significant offshore oil and gas potential.

Completed on September 22 following South African regulatory approvals, the transaction transfers operatorship of the 19,929-km2 block to Navitas. Eco retains a 37.5% interest, while local partner OrangeBasin Energies maintains 25%. Eco received $4 million in cash and will be carried by Navitas for up to $7.5 million of its share of the work program.

South Africa has an opportunity to turn its offshore resource potential into investment, energy security, jobs and economic growth

Block 1 CBK sits within the Orange Basin, one of Africa’s most active frontier exploration areas, directly adjacent to Namibia and close to recent discoveries by Galp Energia, TotalEnergies, Rhino Resources and Shell. Three legacy wells have already confirmed a gas discovery with tested flow rates of 32.4 million standard cubic feet per day.

“South Africa has an opportunity to turn its offshore resource potential into investment, energy security, jobs and economic growth,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, AEC. “Partnerships that combine international capital and technical expertise with local participation can help move these resources toward development while creating wider opportunities across the African energy value chain.”

An August 2026 review by Eco and Navitas estimated more than 3.6 billion barrels of unrisked prospective oil resources and approximately 4.5 trillion cubic feet of prospective gas resources on Block 1 CBK. The partners are continuing advanced interpretation and reprocessing of existing seismic data to identify prospects and potential drilling targets, with the farm-down carrying Eco’s share of a work program that includes two planned exploration wells.

The transaction also demonstrates how farm-downs can distribute exploration risk while preserving exposure to high-impact African resources. Navitas assumes operational responsibility and expenditure commitments, while Eco retains substantial upside. If the existing option with OrangeBasin Energies is exercised in full and Navitas acquires half of the additional interest, Eco and Navitas would each hold 47.5% with OrangeBasin Energies retaining 5%.

For South Africa, successful exploration could support domestic oil and gas supply, attract international investment and generate demand for local services, technology and expertise. The project also forms part of a broader Orange Basin exploration story spanning South Africa and Namibia, reinforcing the region’s growing importance within Africa’s upstream landscape.

The AEC supports continued collaboration between government, international operators, African companies and financial and technical partners to advance Block 1 CBK. As Navitas assumes operatorship, the project provides an opportunity to convert substantial geological potential into exploration activity, investment and, ultimately, energy and economic value for South Africa and the continent.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Brings Oil Development Push to African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 as Hydrocarbons Minister Leads Sector Agenda

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The Democratic Republic of the Congo is advancing new petroleum data, exploration and infrastructure initiatives as Minister of State for Hydrocarbons Acacia Bandubola Mbongo prepares to address investors and industry leaders at African Energy Week 2026

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 23, 2026/APO Group/ –The Democratic Republic of the Congo is stepping up efforts to develop its hydrocarbons industry, with Minister of State for Hydrocarbons Acacia Bandubola Mbongo set to speak at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town, where she will present the country’s evolving oil and gas agenda to international investors and industry stakeholders.

 




  

Her appearance comes as Kinshasa moves to strengthen some of the infrastructure needed to support a more active petroleum sector. In July, the country launched its first national petroleum and gas data bank, inaugurated by Bandubola in Kinshasa. The platform is intended to centralize and improve access to geological and petroleum information, providing a more structured basis for exploration and investment.

Exploration is also moving up the government’s agenda. On September 15, Bandubola chaired discussions on accelerating the development of oil blocks 1 and 2 in the Albertine Graben, an area in eastern DRC where the government has been seeking to advance petroleum activity. The latest discussions underscore Kinshasa’s focus on moving prospective acreage toward development rather than leaving resources at the exploration stage.

The DRC has an enormous opportunity to build a stronger domestic oil and gas industry, but realizing that potential requires more than resources underground

At the same time, the DRC is looking beyond its borders for technical expertise. In May, Bandubola signed an agreement with Algeria’s energy minister covering cooperation in hydrocarbon exploration and production, as well as technical expertise and petroleum data. The partnership reflects Kinshasa’s efforts to draw on experience from established African oil and gas producers as it builds out its own sector capabilities.

The government is also working on the downstream side of the industry. Earlier this year, the hydrocarbons ministry outlined projects aimed at improving fuel supply in three provinces, including additional storage and distribution infrastructure. Such investments form part of a broader effort to strengthen the systems needed to supply a country with significant distances between producing areas, population centers and markets.

Bandubola’s role also has a regional dimension. The DRC is taking on a leadership position within the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization in 2026, giving the Minister an additional platform to engage with other African oil and gas producers on investment, technical cooperation and the development of the continent’s petroleum resources.

For investors, the DRC’s challenge is increasingly about translating prospective resources into a functioning industry – supported by credible data, exploration activity, infrastructure and partnerships. AEW 2026 provides a platform for the government to outline how it intends to do that and where international capital and expertise could fit into the next stage of development.

“The DRC has an enormous opportunity to build a stronger domestic oil and gas industry, but realizing that potential requires more than resources underground. It requires credible data, infrastructure, technical expertise and investment partnerships that can turn geological potential into productive assets and economic opportunity,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Acacia Bandubola Mbongo’s participation comes at an important moment as the country works to put those building blocks in place and engage investors on the opportunities emerging across its hydrocarbons sector.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 

 




 

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Kenya’s Oil Ambitions Meet a New Refining Push at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026

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Kenya is positioning itself for a larger role in East Africa’s energy market, with Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum James Opiyo Wandayi set to participate in African Energy Week 2026

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Kenya’s energy story is no longer confined to developing its nascent oil industry or expanding its already substantial renewable power base. In 2026, the country has emerged as a potential hub for both upstream and downstream investment, while continuing to build out the electricity infrastructure needed to support a growing economy, with Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum James Opiyo Wandayi set to bring Kenya’s evolving energy agenda to African Energy Week 2026.
 




 

At the center of that shift is the proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lamu, which Dangote Industries plans to develop at a cost of around $15-16 billion. The company expects to break ground later this month and complete the project by 2030, with the facility intended to supply refined products to Kenya and neighboring East African markets.

The project would give Kenya a much larger role in regional fuel supply, but it also highlights the infrastructure and supply questions facing the country’s petroleum ambitions. Kenya does not yet have commercial crude production, meaning the proposed refinery will need to secure feedstock from domestic production as it develops or from producers elsewhere in the region and international markets. Reuters has reported that potential sources include South Sudan and Uganda, although infrastructure and geopolitical considerations complicate those options.

That makes Kenya’s upstream progress particularly relevant. In May, Wandayi said the country expected to begin commercial oil production in Turkana by the end of 2026, marking a significant step beyond the small-scale early oil program that has operated in the South Lokichar Basin.

Kenya is entering an important period for its energy sector, with opportunities emerging across the petroleum value chain as well as geothermal, renewables and power infrastructure

The petroleum push is unfolding alongside an ambitious electricity strategy. Kenya recently raised its planned additional generation capacity from 1,500 MW to 5,500 MW, with the revised pipeline incorporating geothermal, hydropower and nuclear generation. The country already produces approximately 93% of its electricity from renewable sources, with geothermal playing a particularly important role.

The challenge now extends beyond adding generation. Kenya is also examining the cost and structure of its electricity market, including power-purchase agreements, transmission and distribution infrastructure. The government has been under pressure to address electricity costs even as it seeks to attract the investment needed for new capacity.

For Wandayi, whose portfolio encompasses both petroleum and the wider energy sector, those developments converge around a common question: how to turn major energy projects into infrastructure, investment and industrial growth.

“Kenya is entering an important period for its energy sector, with opportunities emerging across the petroleum value chain as well as geothermal, renewables and power infrastructure,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “The proposed Lamu refinery, the development of Kenya’s oil resources and the country’s expanding power ambitions demonstrate the breadth of investment opportunities available. What matters now is creating the conditions for capital and technical expertise to move these projects from ambition into execution.”

Wandayi’s participation at AEW 2026 will put that broader agenda before investors, developers, financiers and energy companies from across Africa and beyond. His portfolio places him at the intersection of Kenya’s efforts to develop domestic petroleum resources, build new downstream infrastructure and expand a power system increasingly dominated by renewable generation.

AEW 2026 takes place in Cape Town from October 12-16, bringing together African governments, energy companies, investors and financiers for discussions spanning oil and gas, power, renewables, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy finance.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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