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Geopolitics and Energy Security: What Recent Moves Say about Africa’s Global Gas Role

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African Energy Chamber

With the European Union formalizing a ban on Russian LNG and gas imports from 2026 and 2027 respectively, Africa is uniquely positioned to leverage geopolitics to advance its energy development

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, January 9, 2026/APO Group/ –The Council of the European Union (EU) and the European Parliament signed a provisional agreement in early December 2025 to formally phase out Russian gas imports. Aligned with a broader strategy to diversify imports and strengthen security of supply, the agreement stipulates a full prohibition on both LNG and pipeline gas from 2026 and 2027 respectively. For African gas producers, this decision marks a strategic turning point: an opportunity to leverage geopolitics to attract long-term investment while prioritizing domestic energy needs.

European Diversification Creates Strategic Openings

The EU’s decision to introduce a legally binding prohibition on Russian gas imports forms a core pillar of the bloc’s REPowerEU roadmap – launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and aimed at safeguarding energy supply. Under the provisional agreement, short-term contracts concluded before June 2025 will expire in 2026, while long-term LNG contracts will be prohibited from January 2027. Long-term pipeline gas contracts will end by September or November 2027, contingent on storage targets being met. Amendments to existing contracts will be tightly restricted and cannot increase volumes.

The regulation also obliges EU member states to submit national diversification plans outlining how they intend to replace Russian supplies, while strengthening European Commission oversight. A parallel legislative proposal to phase out Russian oil imports is expected by the end of 2027. While Russian oil now accounts for less than 3% of EU imports, gas still represents around 13% – worth more than €15 billion annually – leaving Europe exposed to supply and security risks.

For African producers, this policy shift sends a clear signal: Europe is actively seeking new, reliable suppliers with the capacity to deliver long-term volumes under transparent, rules-based frameworks. The question is no longer whether demand exists, but how Africa positions itself to meet that demand on its own terms.

Africa: The Preferred Supplier

Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world

With its geographic advantage and strong resource base, Africa is well placed to respond. North Africa is the clear market of choice, with established export infrastructure already in place. Algeria, Egypt and Libya account for two-thirds of the continent’s output, and while production is set to expand into the 2030s, North Africa’s share is projected to fall below 40% by 2035 as other regional producers emerge.

For Europe, this holds a strategic advantage. West and East African LNG producers sit astride both Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes, enabling them to function as swing suppliers. This optionality allows producers to respond to price signals in Europe and Asia, arbitrage spot-market fluctuations and provide resilience during global supply disruptions – precisely the flexibility European buyers now value.

The resource base is equally compelling. Africa holds an estimated 620 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves. The Rovuma Basin off Tanzania and Mozambique alone contains 129 tcf, while Nigeria’s Niger Delta holds 113 tcf. While much of this potential remains underdeveloped, momentum is building. The year 2025 saw the start-up of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project in Mauritania and Senegal, Congo LNG Phase 2 and the resumption of Mozambique LNG and Rovuma LNG. These projects send a clear message: Africa is capable and ready to supply global markets.

Balancing Global Demand with African Priorities

As European demand continues to grow, Africa faces a strategic balancing act: how to become a preferred global supplier while ensuring investment serves the continent’s development needs. With more than 600 million people still without access to electricity and 900 million lacking clean cooking solutions, it is increasingly important to move beyond historical contractual models rooted primarily in extraction. By 2050, African gas demand is projected to rise by 60%, reaffirming the need to design contracts that support long-term economic growth rather than short-term export gains.

One mechanism already gaining traction is the integration of domestic market obligations into LNG projects. The GTA project offers a clear example. Developed as a cross-border LNG hub for Mauritania and Senegal, the project earmarks 35 million standard cubic feet per day of its output for domestic use in each country, supporting power generation and industrial development alongside exports to global markets. Rather than viewing exports and domestic consumption as competing priorities, this framework links them directly: as production and exports grow, so too does gas availability for local markets.

“By modernizing contractual structures and embedding development considerations into gas investments, African producers can ensure that rising global demand translates into accelerated progress at home. Africa’s gas resources must be developed in a way that serves Africans first – powering homes, driving industrialization and creating jobs – while responsibly supplying the world,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber.

This message will take center stage at African Energy Week 2026, where policymakers, producers and financiers will convene to redefine Africa’s role in a fragmenting global energy order. With Europe looking south for security of supply, Africa has a rare opportunity in 2026: to leverage geopolitics not just for capital inflows, but for a future where energy abundance translates into broad-based prosperity at home.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Africa’s Lithium Pipeline Gains Momentum as Global Supply Deficits Loom

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Energy Capital

The upcoming African Mining Week 2026 – taking place from October 14-16 in Cape Town – will connect global investors with prospects within the lithium industry amidst an anticipated resource supply deficit by 2028

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, April 9, 2026/APO Group/ –Rising demand for lithium is positioning Africa to attract foreign investment, accelerate local beneficiation and strengthen its role in securing the global battery supply chain. A recent forecast by Wood Mackenzie projects that global lithium demand could exceed 13 million tons by 2050 under an accelerated energy transition scenario. This surge is expected to place significant pressure on supply, with deficits emerging as early as 2028. Without substantial new investments, existing lithium projects will struggle to meet demand beyond the mid-2030s.

 

Against this backdrop, Africa’s growing pipeline of greenfield and development-stage lithium projects positions the continent as an increasingly important contributor to global supply security. In 2025, Africa ranked as the largest source of new lithium supply globally, with new output from the region exceeding that of the rest of the world combined. This milestone underscores the continent’s potential to scale production and strengthen its role in the global battery minerals market.

Emerging Lithium Producers Strengthen Africa’s Supply Pipeline

Even under a slower energy transition scenario, Wood Mackenzie projects that lithium markets will remain adequately supplied until 2037, before entering deficit. This outlook reinforces Africa’s strategic role as new projects across Mali, Zimbabwe, Ghana and Namibia advance toward production.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zijin Mining, AVZ Minerals and KoBold Metals are expected to begin operations at the Manono lithium project in mid-to-late 2026, marking the country’s first lithium output. Ranked among the world’s largest hard-rock lithium deposits, Manono is expected to begin exports shortly after commissioning, diversifying DRC’s mineral output while strengthening the continent`s contribution to the global electric vehicles and battery supply chain.

Mali Emerges as a Regional Lithium Hub

Mali is also rapidly positioning itself as a key lithium producer. The Bougouni Lithium Project, commissioned in 2025, currently produces approximately 125,000 tons per annum of concentrate, with Phase Two expansion plans underway that could nearly double production capacity.

Meanwhile, the Goulamina Lithium Project, one of the largest spodumene deposits globally, is producing around 506,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually, with expansion plans targeting one million tons per year. Together, these projects are expected to significantly strengthen Mali and Africa’s position within the global lithium market.

Ghana and Zimbabwe Expand Lithium Production and Value Addition

In Ghana, the Ewoyaa Lithium Project, developed by Atlantic Lithium, is set to become the country’s first lithium-producing mine, with production targeted for late 2027. The project is expected to produce 3.58 million tons of spodumene concentrate grading 6% and 5.5%, alongside approximately 4.7 million tons of secondary product, further strengthening Africa’s contribution to global lithium supply.

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe – currently Africa’s largest lithium producer – is accelerating efforts to move up the value chain. Government policies restricting the export of raw lithium are encouraging investment in local processing and beneficiation facilities, supporting the production of higher-value lithium products and positioning the country as a key supplier to the global battery materials market.

Investment Momentum Builds Ahead of African Mining Week

With an estimated $276 billion in new investment required to avoid the forecast supply deficits beginning in 2028, Africa’s lithium-rich countries are well positioned to attract the capital needed to expand production and downstream processing.

In this context, African Mining Week 2026 – scheduled for October 14–16 in Cape Town – will serve as a key platform for global investors, project developers and policymakers to engage on opportunities within Africa’s lithium sector. As the continent’s premier mining investment event, the conference will feature high-level discussions, project showcases and strategic networking sessions aimed at accelerating partnerships across the lithium value chain.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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New Final Investment Decisions (FID) Propel Africa’s Mining Sector as Investors Eye $8.5T Untapped Potential

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Energy Capital

The 2026 edition of African Mining Week will highlight recent and upcoming FIDs, alongside key projects and investment opportunities

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, April 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Australian mining company Resolute Mining has approved a $516 million Final Investment Decision (FID) for its Doropo Gold Project in the Ivory Coast. The FID advances the project into the construction phase, with first production of 500,000 ounces per annum expected by 2028, strengthening the country and Africa’s position as major gold producers. Similarly, Toubani Resources approved a $216 million FID for the Kobada Gold Project in Mali, enabling the project to enter construction. Designed to produce approximately 162,000 ounces of gold per annum, Kobada supports Mali’s strategy to expand gold output beyond the current 60 tons per annum.

 

Such approvals signal growing capital inflows into Africa’s mining sector, as developers advance projects toward production to meet rising global mineral demand while the continent seeks investment partners to unlock its estimated $8.5 trillion in untapped mineral resources.

Rising FIDs Drive New Phase of Growth for African Mining

As more mining projects reach FID stage, Africa’s mining industry is entering a new phase of expansion, with the capital strengthening the continent’s role in global supply chains while driving infrastructure development, job creation and long-term economic growth.

With global demand for critical minerals expected to triple by 2030, FID announcements across Africa are set to accelerate, underpinned by the continent’s 30% share of energy transition metal reserves. The expanding pipeline of FIDs underscores the strong momentum building across the sector.

Rio Tinto approved a $473 million investment decision to extend the life of the Zulti South Project to 2050, strengthening South Africa’s position as a long-term supplier of mineral sands including zircon and ilmenite, which are essential inputs for construction, ceramics and advanced manufacturing industries. Meanwhile, Tharisa approved a $547 million FID for an underground expansion at its Bushveld Complex operations. The project is expected to deliver over 200,000 ounces of platinum group metals (PGMs) annually alongside more than two million tons of chrome concentrate, reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s leading supplier of PGMs.

Beyond these projects, a broader pipeline of developments is advancing toward investment decisions across the continent. Major projects including the Manono Lithium Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gorumbwa Platinum Project in Zimbabwe, the Diamba Sud Gold Project in Senegal and the Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania are progressing toward potential FIDs as investors position themselves to capture rising demand for battery minerals and critical metals.

Investment Momentum Ahead of African Mining Week

This growing pipeline of investment decisions and project developments will be a key focus of the upcoming African Mining Week 2026, taking place October 14–16 in Cape Town. The event will connect investors, project developers and government regulators to explore partnership opportunities and investment prospects across Africa’s mining value chain. Through high-level discussions and project showcases, the conference will examine how rising FIDs are driving production growth, strengthening infrastructure development and advancing Africa’s strategy to transform its mineral wealth into long-term economic value.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Can Equatorial Guinea Reposition as West Africa’s Gas Hub?

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Energy Capital

As Equatorial Guinea advances third-party gas agreements and infrastructure plans, its hub ambitions will be showcased at the Invest in African Energy Forum, with Minister Antonio Oburu Ondo and senior industry leaders confirmed to attend

PARIS, France, April 7, 2026/APO Group/ –Equatorial Guinea is moving from strategy to execution in its bid to become a regional gas hub. A series of agreements signed in early 2026 – covering cross-border supply, upstream participation and infrastructure utilization – are positioning the country to monetize gas through existing assets and regional aggregation.

 

This agenda will take center stage at the Invest in African Energy (IAE) Forum in Paris, where Equatorial Guinea will feature in a dedicated Country Spotlight session led by Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons. With participation from key industry players, including Panoro Energy and Perceptum, EG Ronda bid round organizer, the forum will provide a platform to outline the country’s gas sector repositioning and where investors can engage.

Momentum behind this model has accelerated in recent months. In February 2026, Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon signed a unitization agreement to jointly develop the cross-border Yoyo-Yolanda gas fields, estimated to hold around 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. Production from the project is slated to feed directly into Equatorial Guinea’s Punta Europa complex, reinforcing the country’s hub strategy without requiring standalone export infrastructure.

Simultaneously, the government strengthened domestic supply through a Heads of Agreement with Chevron to expand the Aseng gas project, increasing GEPetrol’s stake from 5% to over 30%. This not only stabilizes production but also secures additional feedstock for downstream processing, linking upstream development directly to the hub model.

Rather than focusing on new LNG developments, Equatorial Guinea is aggregating domestic and regional gas volumes to maximize existing infrastructure. At the core of this approach is the Punta Europa complex on Bioko Island, one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most advanced gas processing hubs, with LNG, methanol and LPG facilities already in place. The current challenge is securing reliable feedstock as output from legacy fields such as Alba declines.

The Gas Mega Hub initiative offers a faster, more cost-effective route to monetization. By processing third-party volumes from Cameroon, and potentially Nigeria, the country can leverage existing facilities while avoiding the risks and capital intensity of greenfield LNG projects. This approach opens a spectrum of investment opportunities across gas aggregation, transport, processing and downstream integration, often structured through commercially aligned frameworks that reduce execution risk.

Policy and regulatory support are central to this transition. The Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons has prioritized regulatory alignment and cross-border cooperation, recognizing that successful hub development depends as much on enabling frameworks as on physical infrastructure. The recent agreements reflect growing clarity and investor confidence.

For the global investment community, IAE 2026 offers a strategic opportunity to engage directly with government and operators shaping the hub model. The participation of both policymakers and companies active in the sector reinforces the credibility and immediate relevance of Equatorial Guinea’s strategy.

Equatorial Guinea is no longer waiting for new discoveries to drive growth. By leveraging existing infrastructure, securing regional supply and building flexible commercial models, the country is positioning itself as a critical node for gas monetization in West Africa. Success here could extend the life of its assets while establishing a platform for regional energy trade.

IAE 2026 (https://apo-opa.co/41nyEZQ) is an exclusive forum designed to connect African energy markets with global investors, serving as a key platform for deal-making in the lead-up to African Energy Week. Scheduled for April 22–23, 2026, in Paris, the event will provide delegates with two days of in-depth engagement with industry experts, project developers, investors and policymakers. For more information, visit www.Invest-Africa-Energy.com. To sponsor or register as a delegate, please contact sales@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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