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Africa’s next energy boom will be won through infrastructure, not exploration alone

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African Energy Chamber

S&P Global and the AEC hosted a webinar on the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook, highlighting a shift toward execution, gas monetization, deepwater growth and infrastructure-led investment amid rising risks and capital constraints

Africa’s next energy expansion cycle will be defined less by discovery and more by execution as governments and operators race to convert reserves into infrastructure, export capacity and long-term industrial growth. Across the continent, deepwater developments, LNG infrastructure and power investments are increasingly emerging as the real measure of competitiveness as capital providers shift focus toward delivery certainty, regulatory stability and monetization pathways.

 

This transition was a central theme during the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook webinar hosted by S&P Global and the African Energy Chamber (AEC), offering a detailed read on Africa’s upstream trajectory. The webinar, hosted by Vice President of the AEC Verner Ayukegba, brought together analysts from S&P Global to assess shifting investment flows, evolving project timelines and the principal risks shaping African energy markets.

 

Africa’s upstream oil and gas sector is entering a phase of stabilization, with production forecasts at 11.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026 and capital expenditure expected to reach $41 billion. Offshore deepwater remains the dominant growth driver, increasingly shaping long-term supply resilience as mature onshore basins face natural decline and higher reinvestment thresholds.

 

S&P Global’s Director for African Regional Research Justin Cochrane highlighted Africa’s structural under-exploration, noting that only around 25,000 wells have ever been drilled across the continent. He stressed that 74% of discoveries since 2010 have come from deepwater and ultra-deepwater plays, with gas accounting for 73% of total hydrocarbon finds. However, he cautioned that monetization remains uneven, with many frontier discoveries still lacking infrastructure or viable market access.

 

Natural gas is emerging as the central investment thesis for African energy development, increasingly positioned as both a transition fuel and an industrial enabler. LNG expansion, floating production solutions and domestic gas-to-power initiatives are reshaping the continent’s energy mix as global buyers compete for flexible, non-Russian supply and regional demand continues to grow.

 

Simon Wood, Head of EMEA Gas, LNG and Low Carbon Gases Consulting, S&P Global noted that global LNG supply growth is accelerated but stressed that Africa must focus on building integrated value chains rather than relying solely on resource availability. He said, “there is no shortage of gas potential in Africa,” but emphasized that regulatory certainty, infrastructure alignment and aggregation models are essential to de-risk projects and unlock financing at scale.

 

There is no shortage of gas potential in Africa

Energy access remains Africa’s most pressing structural challenge, with approximately 600 million people still lacking electricity and over 900 million without clean cooking access. At the same time, electricity demand is expected to grow by nearly 4% annually through 2030, driven by population growth, urbanization and emerging digital and industrial loads.

 

Rehan Burger, Associate Director for Global Power, S&P Global noted that renewables will dominate long-term capacity additions but warned that intermittency creates system-wide instability without flexible baseload support. He described gas as “system critical,” arguing it plays a stabilizing role in enabling renewable integration while ensuring reliability across grids that remain underdeveloped and highly fragmented.

 

Critical minerals are emerging as a parallel strategic pillar alongside hydrocarbons, with Africa holding roughly 30% of global reserves of key inputs such as cobalt, lithium and platinum group metals. These resources are becoming central to global electrification, battery supply chains and industrial decarbonization strategies.

 

Ross Embleton, Principal Consultant, S&P Global cautioned that Africa’s resource advantage alone is insufficient to guarantee value capture. He emphasized that success depends on investment conditions, governance stability and infrastructure readiness. “This opportunity is not automatic,” he noted, adding that beneficiation strategies in countries such as Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo will determine whether Africa transitions from exporter of raw materials to industrial producer.

 

The 2026 Middle East crisis has introduced a severe external shock to global energy markets, disrupting nearly 10 million barrels per day of supply following particle closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rising about $110 has triggered demand destruction, inflationary pressure and widespread supply chain realignment across importing countries.

 

The situation is the largest oil disruption in history, according to S&P Global’s Director and Head of African Fuels and Refining Research Stanislas Drochon, who warned that Africa is disproportionately exposed due to high import dependence and limited strategic inventories. He noted that trade flows are already shifting, with countries such as South Africa increasing imports while accelerating efforts to diversify supply routes and strengthen regional resilience.

 

Across all segments, the Outlook reinforces a structural transition from resource discovery toward capital-intensive execution. Africa’s primary constraint in 2026 is no longer subsurface potential, but rather the ability to deliver infrastructure, regulatory clarity and coordinated financing at scale to convert reserves into sustained production.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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South Africa’s Orange Basin Gains Momentum as Navitas Takes Block 1 CBK Operatorship

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African Energy Chamber

The African Energy Chamber backs Navitas and Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas’ Block 1 CBK partnership, which stands to strengthen prospects for domestic energy investment

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Following regulatory approval from the South African government, Navitas Petroleum has assumed operatorship of Block 1 CBK offshore South Africa. This follows Eco Atlantic’s completion of a farm-down of a 37.5% working interest in the license to Navitas.

 




  

The deal provides the Atlantic Margins explorer’s partner with one of the Orange Basin’s largest exploration blocks. The frontier region has drawn major industry players including Shell, TotalEnergies, bp, and Galp since play-opening discoveries offshore Namibia started transforming the area’s upstream landscape in 2022.

The African Energy Chamber (AEC) welcomes the completion of Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas’ farm-down in Block 1 CBK. As the voice of the African energy sector, the Chamber views the transaction as an important step in advancing exploration and unlocking the country’s significant offshore oil and gas potential.

Completed on September 22 following South African regulatory approvals, the transaction transfers operatorship of the 19,929-km2 block to Navitas. Eco retains a 37.5% interest, while local partner OrangeBasin Energies maintains 25%. Eco received $4 million in cash and will be carried by Navitas for up to $7.5 million of its share of the work program.

South Africa has an opportunity to turn its offshore resource potential into investment, energy security, jobs and economic growth

Block 1 CBK sits within the Orange Basin, one of Africa’s most active frontier exploration areas, directly adjacent to Namibia and close to recent discoveries by Galp Energia, TotalEnergies, Rhino Resources and Shell. Three legacy wells have already confirmed a gas discovery with tested flow rates of 32.4 million standard cubic feet per day.

“South Africa has an opportunity to turn its offshore resource potential into investment, energy security, jobs and economic growth,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, AEC. “Partnerships that combine international capital and technical expertise with local participation can help move these resources toward development while creating wider opportunities across the African energy value chain.”

An August 2026 review by Eco and Navitas estimated more than 3.6 billion barrels of unrisked prospective oil resources and approximately 4.5 trillion cubic feet of prospective gas resources on Block 1 CBK. The partners are continuing advanced interpretation and reprocessing of existing seismic data to identify prospects and potential drilling targets, with the farm-down carrying Eco’s share of a work program that includes two planned exploration wells.

The transaction also demonstrates how farm-downs can distribute exploration risk while preserving exposure to high-impact African resources. Navitas assumes operational responsibility and expenditure commitments, while Eco retains substantial upside. If the existing option with OrangeBasin Energies is exercised in full and Navitas acquires half of the additional interest, Eco and Navitas would each hold 47.5% with OrangeBasin Energies retaining 5%.

For South Africa, successful exploration could support domestic oil and gas supply, attract international investment and generate demand for local services, technology and expertise. The project also forms part of a broader Orange Basin exploration story spanning South Africa and Namibia, reinforcing the region’s growing importance within Africa’s upstream landscape.

The AEC supports continued collaboration between government, international operators, African companies and financial and technical partners to advance Block 1 CBK. As Navitas assumes operatorship, the project provides an opportunity to convert substantial geological potential into exploration activity, investment and, ultimately, energy and economic value for South Africa and the continent.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Brings Oil Development Push to African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 as Hydrocarbons Minister Leads Sector Agenda

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African Energy Chamber

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is advancing new petroleum data, exploration and infrastructure initiatives as Minister of State for Hydrocarbons Acacia Bandubola Mbongo prepares to address investors and industry leaders at African Energy Week 2026

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 23, 2026/APO Group/ –The Democratic Republic of the Congo is stepping up efforts to develop its hydrocarbons industry, with Minister of State for Hydrocarbons Acacia Bandubola Mbongo set to speak at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town, where she will present the country’s evolving oil and gas agenda to international investors and industry stakeholders.

 




  

Her appearance comes as Kinshasa moves to strengthen some of the infrastructure needed to support a more active petroleum sector. In July, the country launched its first national petroleum and gas data bank, inaugurated by Bandubola in Kinshasa. The platform is intended to centralize and improve access to geological and petroleum information, providing a more structured basis for exploration and investment.

Exploration is also moving up the government’s agenda. On September 15, Bandubola chaired discussions on accelerating the development of oil blocks 1 and 2 in the Albertine Graben, an area in eastern DRC where the government has been seeking to advance petroleum activity. The latest discussions underscore Kinshasa’s focus on moving prospective acreage toward development rather than leaving resources at the exploration stage.

The DRC has an enormous opportunity to build a stronger domestic oil and gas industry, but realizing that potential requires more than resources underground

At the same time, the DRC is looking beyond its borders for technical expertise. In May, Bandubola signed an agreement with Algeria’s energy minister covering cooperation in hydrocarbon exploration and production, as well as technical expertise and petroleum data. The partnership reflects Kinshasa’s efforts to draw on experience from established African oil and gas producers as it builds out its own sector capabilities.

The government is also working on the downstream side of the industry. Earlier this year, the hydrocarbons ministry outlined projects aimed at improving fuel supply in three provinces, including additional storage and distribution infrastructure. Such investments form part of a broader effort to strengthen the systems needed to supply a country with significant distances between producing areas, population centers and markets.

Bandubola’s role also has a regional dimension. The DRC is taking on a leadership position within the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization in 2026, giving the Minister an additional platform to engage with other African oil and gas producers on investment, technical cooperation and the development of the continent’s petroleum resources.

For investors, the DRC’s challenge is increasingly about translating prospective resources into a functioning industry – supported by credible data, exploration activity, infrastructure and partnerships. AEW 2026 provides a platform for the government to outline how it intends to do that and where international capital and expertise could fit into the next stage of development.

“The DRC has an enormous opportunity to build a stronger domestic oil and gas industry, but realizing that potential requires more than resources underground. It requires credible data, infrastructure, technical expertise and investment partnerships that can turn geological potential into productive assets and economic opportunity,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Acacia Bandubola Mbongo’s participation comes at an important moment as the country works to put those building blocks in place and engage investors on the opportunities emerging across its hydrocarbons sector.”

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 

 




 

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Kenya’s Oil Ambitions Meet a New Refining Push at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026

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African Energy Chamber

Kenya is positioning itself for a larger role in East Africa’s energy market, with Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum James Opiyo Wandayi set to participate in African Energy Week 2026

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, September 22, 2026/APO Group/ –Kenya’s energy story is no longer confined to developing its nascent oil industry or expanding its already substantial renewable power base. In 2026, the country has emerged as a potential hub for both upstream and downstream investment, while continuing to build out the electricity infrastructure needed to support a growing economy, with Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum James Opiyo Wandayi set to bring Kenya’s evolving energy agenda to African Energy Week 2026.
 




 

At the center of that shift is the proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lamu, which Dangote Industries plans to develop at a cost of around $15-16 billion. The company expects to break ground later this month and complete the project by 2030, with the facility intended to supply refined products to Kenya and neighboring East African markets.

The project would give Kenya a much larger role in regional fuel supply, but it also highlights the infrastructure and supply questions facing the country’s petroleum ambitions. Kenya does not yet have commercial crude production, meaning the proposed refinery will need to secure feedstock from domestic production as it develops or from producers elsewhere in the region and international markets. Reuters has reported that potential sources include South Sudan and Uganda, although infrastructure and geopolitical considerations complicate those options.

That makes Kenya’s upstream progress particularly relevant. In May, Wandayi said the country expected to begin commercial oil production in Turkana by the end of 2026, marking a significant step beyond the small-scale early oil program that has operated in the South Lokichar Basin.

Kenya is entering an important period for its energy sector, with opportunities emerging across the petroleum value chain as well as geothermal, renewables and power infrastructure

The petroleum push is unfolding alongside an ambitious electricity strategy. Kenya recently raised its planned additional generation capacity from 1,500 MW to 5,500 MW, with the revised pipeline incorporating geothermal, hydropower and nuclear generation. The country already produces approximately 93% of its electricity from renewable sources, with geothermal playing a particularly important role.

The challenge now extends beyond adding generation. Kenya is also examining the cost and structure of its electricity market, including power-purchase agreements, transmission and distribution infrastructure. The government has been under pressure to address electricity costs even as it seeks to attract the investment needed for new capacity.

For Wandayi, whose portfolio encompasses both petroleum and the wider energy sector, those developments converge around a common question: how to turn major energy projects into infrastructure, investment and industrial growth.

“Kenya is entering an important period for its energy sector, with opportunities emerging across the petroleum value chain as well as geothermal, renewables and power infrastructure,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “The proposed Lamu refinery, the development of Kenya’s oil resources and the country’s expanding power ambitions demonstrate the breadth of investment opportunities available. What matters now is creating the conditions for capital and technical expertise to move these projects from ambition into execution.”

Wandayi’s participation at AEW 2026 will put that broader agenda before investors, developers, financiers and energy companies from across Africa and beyond. His portfolio places him at the intersection of Kenya’s efforts to develop domestic petroleum resources, build new downstream infrastructure and expand a power system increasingly dominated by renewable generation.

AEW 2026 takes place in Cape Town from October 12-16, bringing together African governments, energy companies, investors and financiers for discussions spanning oil and gas, power, renewables, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy finance.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

 




 

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