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Global TikTok advertising revenue is set to top $30bn this year but uncertainty remains in the US

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ByteDance

Almost $12bn is at stake should a US ban go ahead
The US remains TikTok’s largest market. Instagram to benefit the most from a US ban
TikTok ad revenue is growing faster outside the US
TikTok users worldwide spend 35 hours each month with the app
TikTok is having a previously unseen impact on Amazon sales

WARC Media’s Platform Insights: TikTok

5 March 2025 – TikTok, the ByteDance-owned video sharing platform, is increasingly seen as able to drive full-funnel outcomes – from discovery through search to purchase. However, concern over TikTok’s possible ban in the US is creating uncertainty among advertisers and creators.

Alex Brownsell, Head of Content, WARC Media, and author of the report, says: “On 18 January, US TikTok users were unable to access the video-sharing app for more than 12 hours due to regulation banning the app on the basis of national security concerns. A 75-day deadline extension to 5 April by President Donald Trump does little to dispel the uncertainty around TikTok as an ongoing staple in many brands’ marketing plans.

“In this report, we explore the potential impact of a US ban on TikTok’s advertising revenue, and examine the platform’s role in consumer behaviour and campaign effectiveness.”

Providing evidence-based insights on the challenges and opportunities TikTok has to offer, WARC Media’s latest Platform Insights report offers an overview of the key data points that advertisers need to know about the platform spanning investment, consumption and performance.

Investment: Global TikTok ad revenue forecast to reach $32.4bn. Nearly $12bn in US spend at stake if TikTok is banned

In 2025, assuming a US ban is not implemented, ad spend with TikTok should reach $32.4bn, a rise of 24.5% year-on-year. TikTok’s ad business is set to grow faster than either Facebook (+9.3%) and Instagram (+19.0%) this year, giving the video-sharing app an 11% share of the global social media market.

According to WARC’s Marketer’s Toolkit survey carried out late last year, global marketers were more likely to increase investment with TikTok in 2025 than with any other digital platform. Agency respondents (81%) were even more bullish than their client counterparts (74%).

The US remains TikTok’s largest market, but over the last five years its share of the platform’s total ad revenue has diminished, dropping from 43.3% in 2022 to 34.0% by 2026, according to WARC Media forecast. Ad revenue is growing faster outside of the US, potentially mitigating the impact of any ban in the US.

If a ban in the US is avoided, TikTok is forecast to earn $11.8bn in US ad revenue this year (up 21.0%, outpacing overall US social media ad investment, which is set to grow 10.6%), rising to $13.4bn in 2026. Instagram stands to benefit most from a TikTok ban, WARC Media estimates, with spend also going to YouTube and Snapchat.

Consumption: Globally, TikTok users spend 35 hours with the app each month

TikTok’s ad reach is currently reported to be 1.59bn. It is the fifth most-used mobile app globally, and the second most popular app for women aged 16-24. The US remains TikTok’s largest market, with 136m active adult accounts, equivalent to two in five Americans.

Total monthly usage on TikTok by far exceeds that of any other platform, with the average user spending more than 35 hours on the app each month in 2024 – more than double the average usage by Instagram users. Consumption levels are even greater in the US, with users spending an average of almost 44 hours per month on TikTok or almost one and a half hours per day.

Established platforms with short-form video features like Instagram’s Reels and YouTube’s Shorts are likely to win more traction from any ban in the US and friction in Canada.

More than half (57%) of global TikTok users utilise the platform’s search function to follow or find information about products and brands, according to We Are Social. Advertisers so far are “intrigued” but cautious over concerns such as effectiveness and safety.

Performance: advertising on TikTok impacts Amazon sales

Kantar’s latest Media Reactions study found that TikTok has again claimed first place, jointly with Amazon, as consumers’ most preferred advertising platform, and is viewed as the “most fun” and entertaining. However, excessive targeting could be an issue, and TikTok also falls short of the industry average in terms of the trust marketers place in it compared to YouTube, Netflix and Instagram.

One of the key trends outlined by TikTok for 2025 is that creative quality and variety can positively drive performance. To assist, TikTok has built various AI-powered tools such as TikTok Symphony and TikTok One.

Data shows that specific branded content in collaboration with creators drive higher view-through rates, engagement and ad recall.

Investment in upper-funnel campaigns on platforms like TikTok, Meta and YouTube can significantly influence Amazon sales, a new study by Fospha has found. On average, TikTok’s direct-to-consumer only return on ad spend (ROAS) was 2.4x; however, when amazon revenue was factored in, Unified-ROAS, as coined in the study, increased to 4.2x, showing that TikTok is having a previously unseen impact on Amazon sales.

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Nigeria’s Upstream Reform Program Captures 40% of Africa’s Final Investment Decision (FID) Activity After a Decade on the Margins

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African Energy Chamber

A government three-year review documents how executive action under President Tinubu reversed a decade of upstream decline

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Nigeria has gone from capturing 4% of Africa’s upstream final investment decisions (FIDs) to commanding 40% in two years, according to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen. The $50 billion project pipeline now in development beyond 2026 points to sustained capital commitment at a scale not seen in the Nigerian upstream for at least a decade.

 

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria was among the continent’s weakest performers for upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second-largest endowment in Africa. Algeria captured 44% of African upstream FIDs during that period, Angola held 26%, while Nigeria trailed Mozambique, Ghana, Senegal and Namibia. In the third quarter of 2022, crude production briefly dropped below one million barrels per day, as years of underinvestment, pipeline vandalism and regulatory ambiguity compounded each other. However, reforms instituted by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu have dramatically turned this trend around. Through deliberate and coordinated steps, the government has reset the trajectory.

Addressing Fiscal Terms, Regulatory Scope and Contracting Speed

President Bola Tinubu’s administration moved simultaneously on fiscal terms and regulatory architecture. Policy directives in 2023 clarified the boundary of jurisdiction between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), resolving an ambiguity that had complicated project sanctioning. Presidential Directive 40 introduced targeted tax incentives, and a separate Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Production in 2024 was designed to draw international oil companies (IOCs) back into capital-intensive, long-cycle deepwater projects. The VAT Modification Order 2024 and Upstream Cost Efficiency Order 2025 addressed the cost structures that had rendered marginal projects uneconomic. NNPCL contracting timelines were compressed from 36 months to a maximum of six months.

Four Divestments Transferred Onshore Control to Indigenous Operators

In parallel, the administration deployed targeted security directives and accelerated ministerial consents for four IOC asset transfers. Renaissance acquired Shell’s onshore portfolio. Seplat Energy completed its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian upstream interests. Oando took over from Agip, and Chappal acquired Equinor’s local assets. The four transactions totaled approximately $4 billion. The transfer of onshore and shallow-water blocks to indigenous operators contributed directly to production recovery. Output rose by approximately 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2025 to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest onshore production level in 20 years.

When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds

Signed Projects Total $10 Billion, With a $50 Billion Pipeline Beyond

The reforms produced a concrete FID response from Shell and TotalEnergies. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) sanctioned the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024 and committed a further $2 billion to the HI Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project. TotalEnergies and NNPCL took a joint FID on the $550 million Ubeta gas field development in June 2024.

Together those three commitments account for more than $10 billion in signed investment after a decade of near-zero sanctioning activity. The pipeline beyond 2026 spans a further $50 billion across 11 projects including Bonga South West, Owowo, Usan and Erha. Nigeria approved 28 field development plans valued at $18.2 billion in 2025 alone, targeting an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves.

“When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Nigeria has done both, and the FID numbers are concrete proof.”

The Counterfactual Illustrates How Much Was at Stake

The presentation includes a no-reform projection that puts the gains in context. Without intervention, total crude and condensate production was on track to fall from 1.371 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 to 579,000 by 2030. Under the reform trajectory, output reached 1.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with a stated government target of 3 million barrels per day. Export gas utilization rose 39% over the same period, while domestic utilization grew by 7%.

The durability of these gains will be tested by two factors: whether the institutional architecture put in place under the Tinubu administration holds over the long term, and whether the deepwater commitments signed in 2024 and 2025 advance to execution on schedule. The project pipeline is large enough that partial delivery would still represent a generational shift in Nigeria’s upstream output profile.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Angola Strengthens Global Investment Drive Across Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources

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Angola

With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership

LONDON, United Kingdom, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –At a defining moment in Angola’s economic transformation, the Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG) (https://CMAGAfrica.com), together with the Government of Angola and the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Petroleum and Gas of the Republic of Angola (MIREMPET), will convene global investors, policymakers, and industry leaders in London for the Angola Oil, Gas & Mining Investment Conference on 14 May 2026.

 

More than a conference, this gathering represents a strategic international engagement at a time when Angola is actively reshaping its economic future and positioning itself as one of Africa’s most compelling destinations for long-term investment in natural resources, infrastructure, and industrial development.

With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership. The country’s leadership is sending a clear message to global markets: Angola is open for investment and ready to build transformational partnerships that support sustainable growth and economic diversification.

This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future

The event will be headlined by H.E. Diamantino Azevedo, Minister for Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas of Angola, whose leadership since 2017 has been central to advancing Angola’s mineral and hydrocarbons agenda. Under his stewardship, Angola has accelerated institutional reform, strengthened governance frameworks, promoted private sector participation, and prioritised sustainable resource development.

As global demand intensifies for critical minerals, energy security, and resilient supply chains, Angola is uniquely positioned to become a strategic partner to international investors and industrial economies. The country’s vast untapped mineral wealth, significant oil and gas reserves, expanding infrastructure ambitions, and commitment to economic diversification present a rare investment window for global stakeholders.

Speaking ahead of the event, Veronica Bolton Smith, CEO of the Critical Minerals Africa Group said:

“Angola stands at a pivotal point in its national development. The reforms taking place across the country’s extractive sectors are creating unprecedented opportunities for responsible international investment and strategic partnership. This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future as a globally competitive investment destination. We believe this moment represents one of the most important opportunities for international partners to engage with Angola’s leadership and participate in the country’s next chapter of economic transformation.”

The event is expected to attract a distinguished international audience, including sovereign representatives, institutional investors, mining and energy executives, infrastructure developers, development finance institutions, and strategic partners seeking direct engagement with Angola’s leadership.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG).

 

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The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group Successfully Concludes Private Sector Roadshow in Baku

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Islamic Development Bank

Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan

BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 7, 2026/APO Group/ –The Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB) affiliates (www.IsDB.org) – namely the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), and the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) – in cooperation with the Islamic Development Bank Group Business Forum (THIQAH), organized the “IsDB Group Private Sector Roadshow” in Baku, Azerbaijan, in close collaboration with the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Export and Investment Promotion Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan (AZPROMO).

 

The high-profile event which took place on Thursday, 7th May 2026, at Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy, came as part of ongoing preparations for the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings and Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026), scheduled to take place from 16 to 19 June 2026, under the high patronage of His Excellency President Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

 

Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan. It highlighted the Group’s ongoing support for private sector development and its efforts to stimulate promising investment and trade opportunities in the Azerbaijani market.

 

The event also served as a unique opportunity inviting the audience to participate actively in IsDB Group Annual Meetings and the Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026). The program included panel discussions and specialized workshops on ways to enhance economic partnerships and the role of IsDB Group’s institutions in supporting the needs of member countries. The spectra of services, solutions and financial tools were also presented, including lines and modes of Islamic financing, trade finance and trade development solutions, corporate private sector financing, as well as risk mitigation solutions plus investment insurance and export credit insurance services.

 

Keynote speakers, in their speeches, underlined strong commitment to deepening engagement with the private sector and fostering meaningful partnerships that drive sustainable economic growth in light of the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings in Baku, all to showcase integrated solutions especially in Islamic finance, trade, investment, and risk mitigation while working closely and collectively with private sector partners to unlock new opportunities, support innovation, and empower businesses contributing to inclusive and resilient development across IsDB Group member countries.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB Group).

 

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