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Africa’s Crude Export Landscape is Shifting – What It Means for the Continent and the Industry

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African Energy Chamber

As Africa evolves from a traditional crude exporter into a rising energy consumer and industrial powerhouse, the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025 underscores a continent on the rise – setting the stage for high-level dialogue and investment at African Energy Week 2025

CAPE TOWN, South Africa, July 17, 2025/APO Group/ –Africa is repositioning itself in the global oil market – not merely as a supplier to international markets, but as a rising energy consumer and industrial growth hub. The newly released OPEC World Oil Outlook 2025 underscores a continent in transition, leveraging its natural resources to meet domestic demand, expand refining capacity and strengthen regional energy security. These shifts signal a maturing energy profile, one that will be at the forefront of discussions during African Energy Week 2025 (AEW): Invest in African Energies, where policymakers, investors and industry leaders will shape the future of African energy on African terms.

 

Crude Exports Plateau Before Gradual Decline

OPEC projects that Africa’s total crude and condensate exports will remain stable at around 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2035, thanks to modest increases in production. However, this steady supply will increasingly be used at home. By 2050, exports are expected to decline to 4.2 million bpd – not due to market loss, but as a result of rising domestic demand and strategic value addition on the continent.

One of the most significant insights from the report is the continent’s growing internal energy appetite. Domestic crude use is expected to rise from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050, nearly tripling over the outlook period. This growth is tied to Africa’s demographic boom, industrial expansion and a concerted push to enhance local refining and downstream infrastructure. As African governments invest in capacity to process more of their own crude and produce their own fuels, the continent is taking steps toward energy independence and job creation across the value chain.

AEW 2025 will be a critical moment to chart that course, ensuring that Africa’s oil and gas resources are harnessed not only for global supply but for African prosperity

Europe and Asia: Changing Trade Patterns

Meanwhile, global trade patterns are shifting in ways that present new opportunities for African producers. Exports to Europe are expected to increase to a peak of 3 million bpd in 2030, before gradually tapering to 2.3 million bpd by 2050, in line with Europe’s broader energy transition and shrinking reliance on imported oil. The Asia-Pacific region is emerging as a more prominent long-term partner, with African crude exports remaining stable at 1.9 million bpd through 2030, then rising modestly to 2.2 million bpd by 2040 before easing to 1.8 million bpd by 2050.

Trade with the U.S. and Canada, which stood at 400,000 bpd in 2024, is expected to fall to 100,000 bpd by 2045, as competition from Latin America intensifies. Yet rather than signaling decline, this trend underscores the importance of market diversification and deeper regional cooperation – a direction many African producers are already pursuing through integrated trade corridors, cross-border pipelines and African Continental Free Trade Area initiatives.

What This Means for Africa’s Energy Strategy — and AEW

These evolving dynamics will be a core focus at AEW 2025: Invest in African Energies, the continent’s premier platform for energy dialogue, investment and policy alignment. AEW will provide a stage for African countries to present their long-term energy strategies and forge partnerships aimed at building capacity, securing financing and scaling infrastructure. Rather than reacting to global shifts, Africa is asserting its own agenda centered on energy access, industrialization and sustainable growth.

A dedicated OPEC roundtable at AEW will also explore the implications of the World Oil Outlook 2025 in greater depth. This forum will offer African producers and OPEC member states a chance to align on market expectations, explore new trade frameworks and identify areas for collaboration across production, refining and investment.

“As demand at home accelerates and global market dynamics evolve, the continent is stepping into a more self-directed and strategic role in the energy world. AEW 2025 will be a critical moment to chart that course, ensuring that Africa’s oil and gas resources are harnessed not only for global supply but for African prosperity,” says NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Week.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Liberia to Preview Next Oil & Gas Licensing Round Strategy at Houston Investor Day

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The Liberia Petroleum Regulatory Authority will host operators, investors and partners in Houston on August 19 to preview future licensing opportunities and showcase the exploration potential of its offshore basins

HOUSTON, United States of America, August 7, 2026/APO Group/ –The Liberia Petroleum Regulatory Authority (LPRA) will present its strategy for the country’s next offshore licensing round at Liberia Investor Day Houston on August 19, bringing together international exploration companies, investors, service providers and energy leaders to discuss the next phase of Liberia’s upstream development.

Hosted in partnership with Energy Capital & Power, the event will provide a platform for the LPRA, led by Director General Hon. Marilyn T. Logan, to outline Liberia’s regulatory framework, investment priorities and plans to attract new participation across the country’s offshore sector. Discussions will focus on upcoming licensing opportunities, exploration prospects and the subsurface data supporting future investment decisions.

Liberia’s offshore sector is entering a new phase of exploration activity, with renewed international participation and a growing pipeline of opportunities. Following the award and ratification of eight Production Sharing Contracts in 2025, Liberia has re-established itself as a frontier exploration destination, with international operators advancing work programs designed to further evaluate the country’s petroleum potential. TotalEnergies is progressing exploration activities that include offshore geochemical surveys, 3D seismic acquisition and seabed mapping, while Oranto Petroleum has also signed contracts to explore Liberia’s offshore.

At the Liberia Investor Day Houston, the LPRA will provide industry stakeholders with insight into the priorities shaping the next licensing round, including the anticipated process, qualification requirements, available acreage and access to technical data. The engagement will give prospective investors a clearer view of Liberia’s exploration landscape and the opportunities emerging across its offshore basins.

The event will also facilitate direct dialogue between LPRA and the global upstream community, connecting companies with policymakers and industry stakeholders involved in shaping Liberia’s next chapter of petroleum development.

As exploration companies continue to seek new frontier opportunities, Liberia Investor Day Houston will highlight the role of regulatory certainty, data availability and strategic partnerships in unlocking long-term investment across Liberia’s offshore sector.

Registration is now open for attendees. Companies interested in Liberia’s emerging offshore opportunities are invited to join LPRA, investors and upstream leaders in Houston for insights into the country’s licensing strategy and exploration outlook. For more information contact info@energycapitalpower.com.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

 

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Beyond Stabroek: Guyana’s Offshore Basin Attracts New Wave of Exploration Investment

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As ExxonMobil advances appraisal activity in Stabroek and new operators target frontier acreage, Guyana is attracting global capital and building a diversified offshore portfolio designed to sustain long-term growth

GEORGETOWN, Guyana, August 7, 2026/APO Group/ –Guyana’s transformation into one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers is entering a new phase, with a growing network of IOCs expanding exploration activity across the country’s offshore basin. Beyond the landmark discoveries that first put Guyana on the global energy map, new drilling campaigns and licensing partnerships are creating a broader exploration ecosystem designed to support long-term production growth.

At the center of this momentum is ExxonMobil’s continued exploration and appraisal activity in the prolific Stabroek Block. The company has submitted a proposal for a 35-well exploration and appraisal drilling campaign, expected to run from 2028 through 2033, pending regulatory approval. The program would build on more than 30 commercial discoveries already made in the block, with drilling activity focused on evaluating new prospects and appraising existing discoveries to support future development opportunities.

Exploration activity is also extending into Guyana’s frontier acreage, with ExxonMobil advancing drilling operations at the deepwater Canje Block. The company has deployed the Noble Stena Carron drillship for exploration activity, highlighting continued industry interest in evaluating Guyana’s underexplored offshore potential beyond the established Stabroek Block.

Guyana’s strong exploration outlook comes as the country’s economy continues to benefit from rapid oil sector expansion, with hydrocarbons expected to remain a key driver of exports, government revenues and economic growth. As production scales up, attracting additional investment across exploration, services and infrastructure will be critical to supporting the next phase of development.

That momentum is being reinforced through partnerships established under Guyana’s 2023 offshore licensing round. A consortium comprising TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and Petronas is advancing exploration activities in Block S4 under a five-year production sharing agreement signed with the government in late 2025. The award represents one of the first major outcomes of the licensing round and demonstrates continued international confidence in Guyana’s offshore resource potential.

Beyond the largest operators, a diverse group of companies is also expanding activity across Guyana’s offshore basin. Eco Atlantic is advancing exploration at the Orinduik Block; CGX Energy and Frontera Energy are progressing work in the Corentyne Block; Occidental is evaluating opportunities in the Roraima Block; while Ratio Guyana and Cataleya Energy hold interests in the Kaieteur Block. Together, these partnerships are broadening Guyana’s exploration landscape, increasing competition for acreage and creating opportunities for future discoveries.

As Guyana transitions from an emerging producer to a global energy hub, the next challenge will be converting exploration success into sustainable investment, local value creation and regional growth. These opportunities will be explored at Caribbean Energy Week 2027, held under the theme “Unlocking the Caribbean Energy Corridor: Oil, Gas, LNG & Investment for a New Global Hub.” Bringing together governments, IOCs, investors and technology providers, the event will examine how Guyana’s expanding partnerships can accelerate offshore development, strengthen regional energy cooperation and attract the capital needed to support the Caribbean’s evolving energy landscape.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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Energy Capital & Power Establishes London Entity, Expanding Global Platform for Energy and Mining Events

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The move strengthens ECP’s presence in the UK and Europe, and its ability to connect African and South American markets with global investors

LONDON, United Kingdom, August 6, 2026/APO Group/ –International events company Energy Capital & Power (ECP) (www.EnergyCapitalPower.com) has officially established its UK entity in London, marking a milestone in the company’s growth strategy and reinforcing its ability to deliver world-class energy and mining events and campaigns in the UK and Europe.

By establishing a presence in a key hub like London – the pre-eminent energy and mining finance center – ECP actively shapes the global energy conversation. The expansion positions ECP to better serve clients, partners and investors seeking to develop business opportunities between Africa, Europe, the Americas and energy markets worldwide.

Opening our UK company brings ECP closer to key investors in the global energy finance capital

The milestone comes as ECP strengthens its reach through a series of investment platforms that connect global capital to energy and mining projects. These include the Venezuela Energy Week London Showcase on July 30 – with over 300 delegates registered – and the annual Invest in African Energy Forum, held in Paris as the premier event connecting global investors to Africa’s energy transformation.

ECP hosts high level summits and investor conferences in leading energy and minerals producing countries in Africa and South America, including: Venezuela Energy Week; Angola Oil & Gas; MSGBC Oil, Gas & Power; African Mining Week; Libya Energy & Economic Summit; Congo Energy & Investment Forum; South Sudan Oil & Power; and Caribbean Energy Week. The company has hosted investor forums and supported licensing round roadshows in Houston, London and Paris since 2016.

“Opening our UK company brings ECP closer to key investors in the global energy finance capital,” states CEO James Chester. “Having a permanent presence in London further cements our footprint in Europe, enabling us to fulfil our mission to bring minerals and energy investment to diverse global markets.”

With teams located across Africa, Europe and the Americas, ECP has long-facilitated strategic engagement, market intelligence and industry convening, uniting investors with leading energy and mining projects.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Energy Capital & Power.

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