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To Stem Investment Elsewhere, Nigeria’s Oil Sector Requires Change (By NJ Ayuk)

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TotalEnergies

With two-thirds or more of its revenue coming from oil, investor flight is a serious problem for Nigeria

LAGOS, Nigeria, July 29, 2024/APO Group/ — 

By NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber (www.EnergyChamber.org).

Nigeria, a previous bright spot on big oil and gas investors’ radar screens, has dimmed substantially as investor attention is increasingly drawn to new and emerging developments in Namibia, Ivory Coast, Angola, and the Republic of Congo.

With two-thirds or more of its revenue coming from oil, investor flight is a serious problem for Nigeria.

Divestments: The Reasons and the Buyers

Big foreign players, including TotalEnergies and Shell, are exiting or shifting their priorities in Nigeria, rattled by a variety of deleterious forces: an uninviting regulatory environment, lack of transparency, safety issues, vandalism, and theft, among other factors.

For a country whose economy is dependent on fossil fuels, this divestment by majors, totaling around £17 billion since 2006, is catastrophic. Nigeria’s 37 trillion barrels of reserves can do the country no good underground.

Among those looking to pull out of the country, at least in part, is France’s TotalEnergies. The company is seeking to sell its share of Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria, Limited (SPDC), although it will continue to have 18% of its investments in Nigeria.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne says (https://apo-opa.co/3A2CNbe) his company hasn’t explored for oil in Nigeria for 12 years, explaining, “There is always a new legislature in Nigeria about a new petroleum law. When you have such permanent debates, it’s difficult for investors looking for long-term structure to know what direction to go.”

TotalEnergies’ stance highlights the obvious — investors want predictable environments and simple, trustworthy systems of regulation. A dearth of these factors seems to have trumped the fact that Nigeria yet contains large reserves that could be tapped.

Five global oil companies are still working in the country, but three of those — Shell, Eni, and ExxonMobil — are selling in-country assets valued at £1.8 billion, £4 billion, and £11.9 billion, respectively.

Both Shell and Eni have stated an intent to continue operating in Nigeria’s offshore sector, and ExxonMobil has expressed a commitment to continued investment in Nigeria.

Nigerian companies such as Seplat, Aiteo, and Eroton have moved quickly to buy divested assets. So has the Nigerian government, which has been named top bidder for 57 oilfields and granted licenses to 130 firms for development.

I am pleased to see indigenous companies seizing these opportunities created by divestments. I also urge them to take serious measures to control emissions and limit flaring, as large international firms have. In doing so, they will be taking care of their own families, neighbors, friends, and fellow citizens, while building top-notch reputations.

Large or small companies — Nigeria must never choose one or the other. International oil companies, national oil companies, independents, and indigenous companies all have important roles to play in Nigeria’s economic growth.

Where the Investments Are Going

As I said, Ivory Coast, Namibia, the Republic of Congo, and Angola are drawing investors’ attention away from Nigeria.

Shell is pursuing deepwater blocks in Ivory Coast for exploration, while large Italian firm Eni has just added offshore Block CI-205 to its vast Murene Bailene discovery of 2021. Production from the Baleine discovery has shot Ivory Coast’s production to 30,000 barrels per day (bpd), a number that is expected to rise an astonishing 556% to 200,000 bpd by 2027.

All of this is happening while Ivory Coast is successfully emphasizing carbon-reducing technologies and natural gas as a transition fuel.

Overseas investment has also spurred significant recent discoveries in Namibia, earning the country the nickname, “new Guyana.” (That South American country’s crude oil production soared by a yearly average of 98,000 bpd from 2020 to 2023, making Guyana the third-fastest growing non-OPEC oil-producing country.)

Notable among recent Namibian discoveries is TotalEnergies’ Venus Discovery, for which the French major is seeking approval to move ahead by the close of 2025. Venus is expected to produce up to 180,000 bpd of oil.

Nigeria must work tirelessly to mitigate not only government instability, but other factors that discourage investment

TotalEnergies is also looking to invest $600 million in exploration and production in the Republic of Congo’s Moho Nord deep offshore field this year. As I have said before, this kind of investment is evidence that the company is in the Republic of Congo to stay.

Angola, too, has become a major investment site for TotalEnergies. The firm’s CEO has said (https://apo-opa.co/3A2CNbe) it will invest $6 billion in energy in Angola, as “a country with a more stable policy framework.”

Nigerian Reforms and Rules Changes

March 2024 brought some much-needed federal policy reforms to Nigeria’s petroleum industry in the form of presidential executive orders and policy directives. The reforms are aimed at improving the country’s investment environment and reinvigorating growth in its petroleum industry.

The changes include investor tax credits, an investment allowance, simplifying contracting procedures, and easing local content rules.

The tax credits apply to non-associated gas greenfields — that is, new ventures — both onshore and in shallow water and vary according to hydrocarbon liquids (HCL) content. The credit becomes an allowance after 10 years, making it an ongoing investment incentive.

A 25% investment allowance has also been added for qualified capital expenditures (QCEs) on plants and equipment, cutting down on large capital outlays and thus encouraging industry growth and improvement. 

Changes in third-party contracting aim to decrease both contracting costs and the time it takes for companies to get to production. The new rules encompass financial approval thresholds, consent timelines, and contract duration.  The requirements call for only one level of approval at each contract stage and establish time limits for completion of approvals.

Local content requirements have also been modified to take local capacity into account, enabling investors to keep their projects cost competitive.

Overall, the executive orders help clear up the regulatory fog that has been discouraging major investment and will hopefully help the country regain its status among investors.

The Economy and the New Licensing Round

It’s been estimated that Nigeria requires USD 25 billion of investment per year to keep its production at 2 million bpd — a level that will sustain the nation’s economy. Historically, 2014 marked the peak of investment in Nigerian oil at USD 22.1 billion.

The federal government is strategizing for increased oil production to meet this fiscal need in an environment where vandals have attacked pipelines and stolen oil — factors the government has claimed as reasons it has fallen short of its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota. (Though not by much: for example, production in March 2024 declined from 1.47 million bpd to 1.45 million bpd, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.)

Looking to improve those figures in the remainder of 2024, the government’s target is 1.78 million bpd. Although recent problems on the Trans Niger Pipeline and maintenance by oil companies have dropped output, President Bola Tinubu expects a return to target levels.

By using every available well to increase production and revenue, the government aspires to increase crude production to 2.6 million bpd by 2027.

In April 2024, Nigeria began a new oil and gas licensing round, with an attached promise to investors that the process would be transparent. The new round is intended to help stem the flow of investments to African competitors like Angola and Namibia by easing the process of acquiring oil blocks.

The new licensing round offers 19 onshore and deepwater oil blocks, plus an additional 17 deep offshore blocks. These were chosen for their attractiveness to foreign investors who have both the necessary finances and technical savvy to develop the areas.

Successful bidders will be held to precise exploration timelines.

Bidding had begun on seven offshore blocks in 2022 but was delayed for the installation of a new government — just the sort of shaky situation large foreign investors like to avoid.

With that experience in mind, Nigeria must work tirelessly to mitigate not only government instability, but other factors that discourage investment, be they regulatory hurdles, lack of transparency, or safety and security issues.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Nigeria’s Upstream Reform Program Captures 40% of Africa’s Final Investment Decision (FID) Activity After a Decade on the Margins

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A government three-year review documents how executive action under President Tinubu reversed a decade of upstream decline

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –Nigeria has gone from capturing 4% of Africa’s upstream final investment decisions (FIDs) to commanding 40% in two years, according to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen. The $50 billion project pipeline now in development beyond 2026 points to sustained capital commitment at a scale not seen in the Nigerian upstream for at least a decade.

 

Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria was among the continent’s weakest performers for upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the second-largest endowment in Africa. Algeria captured 44% of African upstream FIDs during that period, Angola held 26%, while Nigeria trailed Mozambique, Ghana, Senegal and Namibia. In the third quarter of 2022, crude production briefly dropped below one million barrels per day, as years of underinvestment, pipeline vandalism and regulatory ambiguity compounded each other. However, reforms instituted by Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu have dramatically turned this trend around. Through deliberate and coordinated steps, the government has reset the trajectory.

Addressing Fiscal Terms, Regulatory Scope and Contracting Speed

President Bola Tinubu’s administration moved simultaneously on fiscal terms and regulatory architecture. Policy directives in 2023 clarified the boundary of jurisdiction between the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), resolving an ambiguity that had complicated project sanctioning. Presidential Directive 40 introduced targeted tax incentives, and a separate Notice of Tax Incentives for Deep Offshore Production in 2024 was designed to draw international oil companies (IOCs) back into capital-intensive, long-cycle deepwater projects. The VAT Modification Order 2024 and Upstream Cost Efficiency Order 2025 addressed the cost structures that had rendered marginal projects uneconomic. NNPCL contracting timelines were compressed from 36 months to a maximum of six months.

Four Divestments Transferred Onshore Control to Indigenous Operators

In parallel, the administration deployed targeted security directives and accelerated ministerial consents for four IOC asset transfers. Renaissance acquired Shell’s onshore portfolio. Seplat Energy completed its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Nigerian upstream interests. Oando took over from Agip, and Chappal acquired Equinor’s local assets. The four transactions totaled approximately $4 billion. The transfer of onshore and shallow-water blocks to indigenous operators contributed directly to production recovery. Output rose by approximately 400,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2025 to reach 1.6 million barrels per day, the highest onshore production level in 20 years.

When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds

Signed Projects Total $10 Billion, With a $50 Billion Pipeline Beyond

The reforms produced a concrete FID response from Shell and TotalEnergies. Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) sanctioned the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater development in December 2024 and committed a further $2 billion to the HI Non-Associated Gas (NAG) project. TotalEnergies and NNPCL took a joint FID on the $550 million Ubeta gas field development in June 2024.

Together those three commitments account for more than $10 billion in signed investment after a decade of near-zero sanctioning activity. The pipeline beyond 2026 spans a further $50 billion across 11 projects including Bonga South West, Owowo, Usan and Erha. Nigeria approved 28 field development plans valued at $18.2 billion in 2025 alone, targeting an estimated 1.4 billion barrels of reserves.

“When a government rebuilds fiscal competitiveness and regulatory predictability at the same time, capital responds,” said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber. “Nigeria has done both, and the FID numbers are concrete proof.”

The Counterfactual Illustrates How Much Was at Stake

The presentation includes a no-reform projection that puts the gains in context. Without intervention, total crude and condensate production was on track to fall from 1.371 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 to 579,000 by 2030. Under the reform trajectory, output reached 1.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026, with a stated government target of 3 million barrels per day. Export gas utilization rose 39% over the same period, while domestic utilization grew by 7%.

The durability of these gains will be tested by two factors: whether the institutional architecture put in place under the Tinubu administration holds over the long term, and whether the deepwater commitments signed in 2024 and 2025 advance to execution on schedule. The project pipeline is large enough that partial delivery would still represent a generational shift in Nigeria’s upstream output profile.

 

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of African Energy Chamber.

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Angola Strengthens Global Investment Drive Across Oil, Gas and Mineral Resources

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With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership

LONDON, United Kingdom, May 8, 2026/APO Group/ –At a defining moment in Angola’s economic transformation, the Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG) (https://CMAGAfrica.com), together with the Government of Angola and the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Petroleum and Gas of the Republic of Angola (MIREMPET), will convene global investors, policymakers, and industry leaders in London for the Angola Oil, Gas & Mining Investment Conference on 14 May 2026.

 

More than a conference, this gathering represents a strategic international engagement at a time when Angola is actively reshaping its economic future and positioning itself as one of Africa’s most compelling destinations for long-term investment in natural resources, infrastructure, and industrial development.

With sweeping reforms across the extractive sector, Angola is entering a new phase defined by transparency, regulatory modernisation, value addition, and international partnership. The country’s leadership is sending a clear message to global markets: Angola is open for investment and ready to build transformational partnerships that support sustainable growth and economic diversification.

This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future

The event will be headlined by H.E. Diamantino Azevedo, Minister for Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas of Angola, whose leadership since 2017 has been central to advancing Angola’s mineral and hydrocarbons agenda. Under his stewardship, Angola has accelerated institutional reform, strengthened governance frameworks, promoted private sector participation, and prioritised sustainable resource development.

As global demand intensifies for critical minerals, energy security, and resilient supply chains, Angola is uniquely positioned to become a strategic partner to international investors and industrial economies. The country’s vast untapped mineral wealth, significant oil and gas reserves, expanding infrastructure ambitions, and commitment to economic diversification present a rare investment window for global stakeholders.

Speaking ahead of the event, Veronica Bolton Smith, CEO of the Critical Minerals Africa Group said:

“Angola stands at a pivotal point in its national development. The reforms taking place across the country’s extractive sectors are creating unprecedented opportunities for responsible international investment and strategic partnership. This is not simply about resource development, it is about building long-term industrial growth, strengthening energy and mineral supply chains, and shaping Angola’s future as a globally competitive investment destination. We believe this moment represents one of the most important opportunities for international partners to engage with Angola’s leadership and participate in the country’s next chapter of economic transformation.”

The event is expected to attract a distinguished international audience, including sovereign representatives, institutional investors, mining and energy executives, infrastructure developers, development finance institutions, and strategic partners seeking direct engagement with Angola’s leadership.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Critical Minerals Africa Group (CMAG).

 

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The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) Group Successfully Concludes Private Sector Roadshow in Baku

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Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan

BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 7, 2026/APO Group/ –The Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB) affiliates (www.IsDB.org) – namely the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit (ICIEC), the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), and the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) – in cooperation with the Islamic Development Bank Group Business Forum (THIQAH), organized the “IsDB Group Private Sector Roadshow” in Baku, Azerbaijan, in close collaboration with the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Export and Investment Promotion Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan (AZPROMO).

 

The high-profile event which took place on Thursday, 7th May 2026, at Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy, came as part of ongoing preparations for the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings and Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026), scheduled to take place from 16 to 19 June 2026, under the high patronage of His Excellency President Ilham Aliyev, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

 

Bringing together a diverse range of stakeholders, the Forum showcased IsDB Group services, activities, and initiatives across its 57 member countries, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan. It highlighted the Group’s ongoing support for private sector development and its efforts to stimulate promising investment and trade opportunities in the Azerbaijani market.

 

The event also served as a unique opportunity inviting the audience to participate actively in IsDB Group Annual Meetings and the Private Sector Forum (PSF 2026). The program included panel discussions and specialized workshops on ways to enhance economic partnerships and the role of IsDB Group’s institutions in supporting the needs of member countries. The spectra of services, solutions and financial tools were also presented, including lines and modes of Islamic financing, trade finance and trade development solutions, corporate private sector financing, as well as risk mitigation solutions plus investment insurance and export credit insurance services.

 

Keynote speakers, in their speeches, underlined strong commitment to deepening engagement with the private sector and fostering meaningful partnerships that drive sustainable economic growth in light of the upcoming IsDB Group Annual Meetings in Baku, all to showcase integrated solutions especially in Islamic finance, trade, investment, and risk mitigation while working closely and collectively with private sector partners to unlock new opportunities, support innovation, and empower businesses contributing to inclusive and resilient development across IsDB Group member countries.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Islamic Development Bank Group (IsDB Group).

 

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